Canadian Election Results Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 23, 2021, 04:59:00 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian Election Results Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 [24] 25 26 27 28 29 ... 45
Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124012 times)
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,639


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #575 on: May 03, 2011, 02:47:19 AM »

And national maps for the percentage of the vote won by party.  These are in the party's colors, with 10 steps that increase in intensity every 10 points, per the atlas color scales for those parties:

Conservatives:


NDP:


Liberals (Yikes!):


Bloc (Quebec only, naturally - light blue kind of stinks as a color to use for comparisons, but there really wasn't a ton of variation, anyway):


I'll do similar regional maps tomorrow by request.
Logged
Doctor V
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,585
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #576 on: May 03, 2011, 02:48:14 AM »

You probably noticed I haven't posted in the canadian elections thread since a while... Not that I didn't care, to the contrary : I was afraid of being too disappointed by the results. This sudden NDP surge just seemed to be too beautiful to be true.

In the end, I feel it's a great day for Canada. Of course, we're headed to 4 more years of Harper, with the potentiality to do a lot of harm. But fortunately the majority is narrow enough for this not to be a total catastrophe. The most important thing is that the realignment of Canadian politics seems to be inevitable now. The bloc is already gone, and Quebec should remain a NDP stronghold. Whether they merge with the NDP, fade away or remain a minor parliamentary party, the liberals shouldn't recover the place they had previously (I can be wrong of course, but it seems difficult). Thus Canada will finally have a true left/right system. That was beyond anything I could imagine, especially considering how the election started. That's a great day in the long run.

It seems like Canada experienced the exact reverse of 1993 (maybe this has already been said though) : with the NDP as reform, liberals as PCs and conservatives as liberals. If this lasts, the entire political system will have radically shifted in a bit more than two decades. Now, with such results, will Layton still step down ? I've heard that he would, but that was before the massive surge. It would make little sense to get rid of such a successful leader, especially since he could very well become PM by 2015.

Of course I have a thought for my friend Hashemite, for which today is certainly a very bad day. As much as this wipeout seems somewhat deserved to the liberals (I've not followed the campaign myslef, but everybody in the forum seems to think they've run an awful campaign), it's certainly sad for all their supporters who didn't necessarily identify with the leadership. I can only feel sad to see the party of Pearson and Trudeau reduced to that.

Anyways, it's quite stunning to see how a dull and predictable election suddenly turned into a massive realignment. As I've said, Canada has extremely passionating politics, and has showed once again that nothing should be taken for granted there. Thank you Canada, please keep on thrilling us ! Smiley
Logged
Foucaulf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,056
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #577 on: May 03, 2011, 02:55:02 AM »

Starting tomorrow, every New Democrat will have to ask a question: what should the NDP oppose?

Do they begin with opposing the crime legislation brought forward by the Conservatives, and barring that the extra money spent on prisons? Do they protest the cancellation of the vote subsidy, arguing that it hurts the opposition more than the government? Do they oppose the copyright laws or a weakening of government control over telecommunications? Or do they go right after the social issues, taking a strong stance against regression over abortion and gay marriage?

For everything they oppose, they will lose voters. For a party elected on an era of good feeling, having to alienate some to please others might be a difficult choice. But four years is enough for a post-Layton leadership to start thinking ideas, a grand blueprint for federal government; to snatch away Harper's "national government" before it can be entrenched. If four years is too short a time, the NDP would never be able enough for government anyway.

Being in opposition is hard. Harper has hammered his policy goals so much that infrequent voters have been bit by curiosity. From tomorrow, the NDP will have to convince that these fantastical policies have real effects. The next hundred days are very important, but in a completely different way.


I have to thank this forum for their interest and analysis; certainly better than the most of the Canadian media. Please stick around for four more years!
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,168


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #578 on: May 03, 2011, 02:55:35 AM »

It's dawned on me that there won't be a Canadian or British election until 2015 Sad

Australia better do something exciting.
Logged
frihetsivrare
Volksliberalist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 614


Political Matrix
E: 4.00, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #579 on: May 03, 2011, 03:10:19 AM »

I can only feel sad to see the party of Pearson and Trudeau reduced to that.

Anyways, it's quite stunning to see how a dull and predictable election suddenly turned into a massive realignment. As I've said, Canada has extremely passionating politics, and has showed once again that nothing should be taken for granted there. Thank you Canada, please keep on thrilling us ! Smiley

Actually when Lester Pearson was opposition leader the Liberal Party was in nearly as bad a place as now.  In 1958 the Progressive Conservatives under John Diefenbaker won 208/265 seats, which is 78.5%.  But at least Pearson still won his riding and the Liberals retained official opposition status.

To add, I agree with your attitude about Canadian elections.  The coverage is especially great on the CBC; it's nowhere near as scripted and polished as American coverage.  Over the last few elections the numbers have been much more interesting, with more than two parties competing for seats.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 39,700
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #580 on: May 03, 2011, 03:12:31 AM »

While the NDP hasn't really been a western party since the rise of Reform, this election pounded that point home. For fun, here's a table of CCF/NDP seat totals by province:

YearTerr.B.C.Alta.Sask.Man.Ont.Que.EastTotal
19353227
194015118
19454185128
19493531113
195371131123
19577105325
19584138
19621026119
196392617
196593921
1968763622
1972111531131
197412228116
197918456226
198011277532
19848541330
198811911021043
199312519
19971354821
20002241413
2004547319
2006110312329
20081914171437
20111121222586102
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,168


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #581 on: May 03, 2011, 03:33:07 AM »

The Conservatives actually outpolled the Liberals on PEI 41.2% to 41.0%. Seats still went 3-1 Liberal though. Yay FPTP!
Logged
Make Politics Boring Again
exnaderite
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,501


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #582 on: May 03, 2011, 03:44:51 AM »

Interesting to see the new factions emerging in the NDP and Conservative Party. Both Layton and Harper will have though jobs inside and outside their caucuses and one misstep for either will see their parties embroiled into a Liberal-style civil war.
Logged
Smid
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,152
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #583 on: May 03, 2011, 03:52:08 AM »

Primary vote of winning party:

Logged
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,486
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #584 on: May 03, 2011, 04:50:25 AM »

It's dawned on me that there won't be a Canadian or British election until 2015 Sad

Australia better do something exciting.

I'm sure we'll have our fill of election coverage for 2012, at least.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,270
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #585 on: May 03, 2011, 04:54:46 AM »

It's dawned on me that there won't be a Canadian or British election until 2015 Sad

Australia better do something exciting.

I'm sure we'll have our fill of election coverage for 2012, at least.

Yeah but the way we do "election coverage" in America....as in two-year long campaigns makes me want to vomit long before the actual election...
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,576
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #586 on: May 03, 2011, 05:11:13 AM »

While the NDP hasn't really been a western party since the rise of Reform, this election pounded that point home. For fun, here's a table of CCF/NDP seat totals by province:

YearTerr.B.C.Alta.Sask.Man.Ont.Que.EastTotal
19353227
194015118
19454185128
19493531113
195371131123
19577105325
19584138
19621026119
196392617
196593921
1968763622
1972111531131
197412228116
197918456226
198011277532
19848541330
198811911021043
199312519
19971354821
20002241413
2004547319
2006110312329
20081914171437
20111121222586102

     I find it intriguing how the NDP now holds 58 seats in Quebec after not holding any prior to 2008. The dramatic swing in Quebec has to be the most momentous aspect of this election on a geographical level.
Logged
Doctor V
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,585
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #587 on: May 03, 2011, 05:19:32 AM »

Actually when Lester Pearson was opposition leader the Liberal Party was in nearly as bad a place as now.  In 1958 the Progressive Conservatives under John Diefenbaker won 208/265 seats, which is 78.5%.  But at least Pearson still won his riding and the Liberals retained official opposition status.

The number of seats doesn't really matter as much as the rank. It's very easy to come from second to first, but far more difficult to come from third to second (in FPP countries at least).

The tab is quite stunning indeed. Of course seeing Quebec switching from BQ to NDP is a very good thing because that means Québec will finally play a true role on federal politics. But now the risk is to see the NDP becoming the party of the Québec and only of the Québec. It is very important for it to consolidate its inroads in Ontario or BQ, because they can't win more in Québec and they can't hope to win nationally with only Québec.

If we look at the results of previous elections outside Québec, we can see it even more clearly.

2004200620082011
Con99114133161
NDP19293644
Lib114906327
Others111

That's quite surprising, actually. NDP gained a mere 8 seats, only one more than in 2008 and less than in 2006, when it gained 10. Almost all seats lost by the liberals have come to the conservatives. In some way, it's understandable : with NDP and liberals close in term of votes, there has probably been a huge voting split favoring the conservative. If the NDP confirms its second party status and the liberals further shrink, which seems likely, we will probably see strong NDP gains outside Québec. Otherwise, there's a risk to see the NDP become trapped in Québec.
Logged
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,486
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #588 on: May 03, 2011, 05:26:55 AM »

It's interesting how, if you look at everything outside of Quebec, the number of seats is just a continuation on the same level of the previous trends. When you throw Quebec into the mix, then everything turns completely sideways.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,230
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #589 on: May 03, 2011, 07:19:41 AM »

Bramalea-Gore-Malton was surprisingly close. And look who was second Smiley
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #590 on: May 03, 2011, 10:18:51 AM »

Why are Labrador and the PEI ridings underpopulated compared to the rest of the country?
Logged
Swedish Austerity Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,490
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #591 on: May 03, 2011, 10:23:53 AM »

Why are Labrador and the PEI ridings underpopulated compared to the rest of the country?

If I'm not mistaken it has to do with an old rule that no province can have a fewer number of seats than it had during the first parliament. Or something like that. 
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,030
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #592 on: May 03, 2011, 10:41:40 AM »

Somewhat shocked by the results in Ottawa-Orleans:

Galipeau (Purgs) 44.5% (-0.4)
Bertschi (Lib) 38.5% (-0.3)
Cenatus (NDP) 14.1% (+4.2)
Maillet (Grn) 2.9% (-3.4%)

A testament of our strong campaign and our excellent candidate, a terrible useless MP (who I saw yesterday. He looks like an angry old man who can't even be bothered to be polite to poll workers). But taken out by the NDP surge for a useless 20some Haitian student.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,670


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #593 on: May 03, 2011, 11:43:53 AM »

Why are Labrador and the PEI ridings underpopulated compared to the rest of the country?

If I'm not mistaken it has to do with an old rule that no province can have a fewer number of seats than it had during the first parliament. Or something like that. 

It has something to do with the number of Senators, too. Only Ontario, BC and Alberta ridings are not undersized.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,201
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #594 on: May 03, 2011, 11:44:48 AM »

Why are Labrador and the PEI ridings underpopulated compared to the rest of the country?

If I'm not mistaken it has to do with an old rule that no province can have a fewer number of seats than it had during the first parliament. Or something like that. 

1972 Parliament.

Also, there is a clause that prohibits any province from having more Senators than MPs, and in 1972, NL and NS each only had 1 more MP, so even if that 1972 rule were to go, the Atlantic would still have at least 30 MPs.

As for Labrador, it was decided to make it it's own seat rather than combine it with something on the Island of Newfoundland. This is partly because it is "northern". Most "northern" ridings are empty. Check Kenora for example.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,941
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #595 on: May 03, 2011, 11:45:36 AM »
« Edited: May 03, 2011, 11:47:17 AM by Refudiate »

What an awful result, atleast NDP's in opposition. I hope Britain and Canada has the chance to throw out Tory governments in 2015.

It's scary how much Canada needs PR.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,231
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #596 on: May 03, 2011, 11:58:59 AM »

Lolquébec. I think I'll have to go with orange Québec avatar from now on.

And shame on the incompetent Hessian radio. No news item whatsoever about the election that I caught. Angry I literally came to the computer right now not knowing the results - had the NDP breakthrough really happened? Or had the Tories won their majority?
Well, both it turns out. Guess that was the second to last federal election that the Liberal Party of Canada will ever fight, or at least be deemed a newsworthy contender in. Maybe third to last.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 64,118
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #597 on: May 03, 2011, 12:34:47 PM »

Ah, I see that you're a fan of the Member for Berthier-Maskinongé.

---

Just looking through the Toronto results (doing the usual percentage winners map - slightly dodgy at this stage as a couple of seats might change hands, but whatever) and... er... York Centre. Knew that Dryden lost (knew that he was going to lose) but the margin? Wow. That was once one of the safest of the safe Liberal seats.
Logged
Dancing with Myself
tb75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,949
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #598 on: May 03, 2011, 12:53:10 PM »

I only watched about 30 min's worth of CBC online coverage but I enjoyed it. I learned quite a bit too. I just wish another US channel besides C-Span 2 would show stuff like this
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,231
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #599 on: May 03, 2011, 01:04:19 PM »

Breaking News: Liberal Party will change its name to "Bloc Newfoundland".

j/k Smiley
I love the maths of the new Liberal caucus:

12 from the Atlantic Provinces (I love the term "Maritimes", but apparently Maritimes equals Atlantic Provinces minus Newfie. Sad )
11 from Ontario, of which 7 from Toronto
11 from the remainder, of which 7 from Montréal.

And yeah, I thought the Liberals would probably be comparatively stable in Anglo Montréal.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 [24] 25 26 27 28 29 ... 45  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.102 seconds with 12 queries.