Canadian Election Results Thread
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Doctor V
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« Reply #700 on: May 08, 2011, 06:27:38 AM »

Results of the election with PR :

FPPNatNBPr
Con167128164128
NDP102997998
Lib34614960
BQ4201618
Gr1004

Nat : National PR, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold.
NB : National PR, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold for 246 seats. 62 seats (20%) given to the winning party.
Pr : PR by province, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold.

Interestingly, no notable distortion between provincial and national PR despite the unfairness of the repartition of seats between provinces. The greens manage to break the threshold in Alberta (1 seat) and BC (3 seats).

I'd like to experiment some math about what it would look like with AV, but I'm too lazy to look at 308 different ridings. I guess the liberals would benefit the most from it.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #701 on: May 08, 2011, 06:48:15 AM »

Results of the election with PR :

FPPNatNBPr
Con167128164128
NDP102997998
Lib34614960
BQ4201618
Gr1004

Nat : National PR, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold.
NB : National PR, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold for 246 seats. 62 seats (20%) given to the winning party.
Pr : PR by province, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold.

Interestingly, no notable distortion between provincial and national PR despite the unfairness of the repartition of seats between provinces. The greens manage to break the threshold in Alberta (1 seat) and BC (3 seats).

I'd like to experiment some math about what it would look like with AV, but I'm too lazy to look at 308 different ridings. I guess the liberals would benefit the most from it.

I know someone who is doing all 308 for AV. I'll contact him for results and let you know.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #702 on: May 08, 2011, 06:53:30 AM »

How would you estimate the results by AV?  Guesswork?
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Doctor V
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« Reply #703 on: May 08, 2011, 07:04:18 AM »

How would you estimate the results by AV?  Guesswork?

I think you have to estimate how the voters of each parties would split their preferences, and do as if those percentage were the same everywhere. For example, for NDP voters we could say 50% liberal, 20% conservative, 30% no preference. Of course some poll of 2011's voters would be very useful in this situation, but I doubt we can find something.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #704 on: May 08, 2011, 07:18:30 AM »

Ekos does polls asking who people's second preference is.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #705 on: May 08, 2011, 07:22:05 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2011, 07:33:46 AM by Joe Republic »

Hmm, that still smells a little too much like arbitrary guessing to me.  Besides, I'd imagine that the breakdowns of voter preference could vary by province and locality, sometimes quite dramatically.

But I guess it's all an exercise in harmless speculation anyway. Smiley
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #706 on: May 08, 2011, 07:43:14 AM »

Quite so.
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Doctor V
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« Reply #707 on: May 08, 2011, 07:45:59 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2011, 07:49:07 AM by Antonio V »

Well, that's the best we can come with the data we have. Of course there will be a lot of mistakes, but at least we'd have the general picture.

Also, here's something interesting. Similarity rates between a province and the country overall. Similarity rate is calculated as the sum of the lowest results (between the provincial one and the national one) for each party.

- NB : 92.06%
- NS : 89.94%
- ON : 88.81%
- BC : 88.42%
- MB : 86.13%
- SK : 81.67%
- NFL : 79.07%
- PEI : 76.39%
- AB : 70.49%
- QC : 70.37%

New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are mini-Canadas. Quebec and Alberta virtually tied for most "eccentric" provinces. Other western provinces surprisingly high.
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Hash
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« Reply #708 on: May 08, 2011, 07:52:31 AM »

Try to find EKOS' last poll, which had a breakdown of 2nd prefs in it.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #709 on: May 08, 2011, 08:12:58 AM »

EKOS' 2nd last poll had 2nd preferences

Cons: NDP 22.9%, Libs 17.7%, Greens 9%, BQ .7%, Others 2.1%. Would not vote: 47.2%
NDP: Libs 37%, Greens 20.5%, Tories 15.3%, BQ 8.9%, Others 1.8%, Would not vote 16.6%
Liberals: NDP 53.9%, Tories 13.2%, Greens 13%, BQ 2.9%, Others .8%, Would not vote 16.3%
BQ: NDP 48.7%, Liberal 11.5%, Greens 9.8%, Tories 6.7%, Others 1.9%, Would not vote 21.4%
Others: Greens 16.4%, Tories 14.5%, BQ 13.6%, NDP 11%, Liberals 8.3%, Would not vote 36.2%
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Meeker
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« Reply #710 on: May 08, 2011, 08:21:12 AM »

The "would not vote" would likely be lower under a system where IRV is the norm, but those numbers still seem like the best thing to use.
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Doctor V
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« Reply #711 on: May 08, 2011, 09:45:42 AM »

EKOS' 2nd last poll had 2nd preferences

Cons: NDP 22.9%, Libs 17.7%, Greens 9%, BQ .7%, Others 2.1%. Would not vote: 47.2%
NDP: Libs 37%, Greens 20.5%, Tories 15.3%, BQ 8.9%, Others 1.8%, Would not vote 16.6%
Liberals: NDP 53.9%, Tories 13.2%, Greens 13%, BQ 2.9%, Others .8%, Would not vote 16.3%
BQ: NDP 48.7%, Liberal 11.5%, Greens 9.8%, Tories 6.7%, Others 1.9%, Would not vote 21.4%
Others: Greens 16.4%, Tories 14.5%, BQ 13.6%, NDP 11%, Liberals 8.3%, Would not vote 36.2%

That's interesting. Now if someone is ready to do the math, it'd be really great. Smiley
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #712 on: May 08, 2011, 09:59:58 AM »

The line for Greens is missing. Also, they must have caught a Quebec-heavy others sample. Grin

One set I found for Green seconds was NDP 40.3, Lib 17.4, Con 11.0, Bloc 2.6, other 1.3, none 27.4. However, that set has slightly different figures for everybody else as well. (to be found here, click on the middle image in the first row of three and then it's a few pages down)

Couple of other points: Do we assume that votes can transfer only once? Or that they will transfer further according to the preferences of the people they transferred to?

I'd be prepared to do this, though. Those minor details don't affect all that many constituencies.

However, someone else already has:

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Though the way he describes it, I think he made a silly mistake. http://thoughtundermined.com/?p=2011
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #713 on: May 08, 2011, 11:20:03 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2011, 11:43:34 AM by The Vorlon »

There are really three stories about this election the media, and most folks, seem to have missed actually.

The first story is how truly dominant the Tories have become in non-Quebec Canada.

Rest of  Canada (Canada - Quebec)

Tories:           5,204,751 votes
Dippers:         2,879,991   votes
Grits:              2,244,758 votes

In Non-Quebec Canada, the Tory vote actually exceeded the combined Grit + Dipper vote. (!)

The second story the media has missed is how fairly evenly the Grit vote in Ontario split between the Tories and the Dippers.

The Dippers increased their Ontario vote by about 485,000 votes, the increase in Tory vote was not that far behind at about an increase of 435,000. - A bit more of the Grit vote went to the Dippers, but is was far less one sided that many would suppose.

Back in the 90's when the "Unite the Right" folks were trying to get the PC and Reform parties to merge they always assumed that the "Unite the Right" vote would equal the PC + Reform vote, they were wrong, just as the Unite the left folks now thing the "Unite the Left" vote will equal the Dippers + Grits.

A final story that has been missed is how the Tories could, at least in theory, pursue a F%$K Quebec strategy if they wanted to.

The Tories won 161 seats outside of Quebec - an outright majority.  When the new census comes in, there will likely be ~~about~~ 30 new seats added, all of them in Tory friendly Ontario, BC, and Alberta.

If the Tories were to "reallocate" the current $ 11 Billion annual subsidy from the rest of Canada to Quebec, combined with an increase in the proportion of non-Quebec seats in Parliament, this could be a viable strategy.

The NDP, with half+ of it's caucus being from Quebec could be marginalized as, effectively, the "new bloq" and the more the NDP complained about Quebec no longer being subsidized, the stronger the Tories would become in English Canada...

Note:

the formula proposed by the Tories in 2010 would have allocated the following additional seats

Ontario + 18
Alberta +5
BC + 7

All other provinces would remain the same

http://www.democraticreform.gc.ca/index.asp?lang=eng&page=news-comm&doc=news-comm/20100401




         
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MaxQue
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« Reply #714 on: May 08, 2011, 12:17:44 PM »

A final story that has been missed is how the Tories could, at least in theory, pursue a F%$K Quebec strategy if they wanted to.

Well, there is a problem in that story.

Bloc collapse doesn't mean the death of the Quebec nationalism.
Moreover, the forces will stop being split on fighting on two levels at the same time.
That could allow them to focus on the provincial scene.

And if Harper decided to screw Quebec, a referendum could pass, I think.
Recent polls give a 42-58 result, but, in case of that strategy, that could move.

Harper is very smart. He doesn't want to be remembered as the Prime Minister which was in power when Quebec left.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #715 on: May 08, 2011, 01:06:29 PM »

Its true outside Quebec, the Tories were quite strong.  I should also note in the English speaking parts of New Brunswick they averaged over 50% so sort of following the national party.  Likewise in Ontario minus the 416 area code, they got 47%, while 45% for just Southern Ontario.  Another interesting tidbit is since 2004, the results in New Brunswick have almost always been very close to what they were in Ontario which I never really understood as the two provinces are so different.  New Brunswick is Canada's only bilingual province, it is also very rural with only some smaller cities, while Ontario is very urban, has a large immigrant community which New Brunswick lacks, and has Canada's largest city.

On a final note, I look forward to seeing the poll by poll breakdown.  We should do some maps like we did last time around for both municipalities, counties, and polls.  Southern Ontario, Western Canada, and New Brunswick will probably be pretty depressing for those on the left and also expect Rural Nova Scotia to be a lot bluer than last time around, although I wonder if the unpopularity of the provincial governments hurt the Tories last time around while the NDP this time around.  Quebec off course will have way more orange than last time around while less red and blue and way less tourquoise. 
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Hash
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« Reply #716 on: May 08, 2011, 01:31:25 PM »

random factoid: the Tory vote dropped (in most cases marginally or very marginally) in all Ottawa ridings.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #717 on: May 08, 2011, 01:40:55 PM »


Washington: Rejecting Dino Rossi since 2004


A classic signature if ever there was one....
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #718 on: May 08, 2011, 02:41:07 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2011, 01:28:57 AM by Χahar »



This is an edit of Al's maps (which were based on Smid's blank map) using Earl's triangular system of shading which represents the margin of the winner over each party. Parties other than the three major parties are ignored. Note that the NDP is in green; the map doesn't work otherwise.
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Doctor V
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« Reply #719 on: May 08, 2011, 03:06:11 PM »

Vorlon, the problem in you theory is that you think to assume the Tories will always remain at this level in Anglo Canada. What you seem to consider a realignment could very well be a temporary surge that could go away as soon at it has come. What if Tories won outside Quebec, but by a more reasonable margin (say 38% instead of 48%) ? They could possibly win a narrow majority in Anglo Canada, but still get trounced in Québec and thus be a minority overall. If the NDP retains its domination on Québec and makes even only small inroads outside, it could very well come to power.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but let's not be too categorical.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #720 on: May 08, 2011, 03:19:40 PM »

Very nice, Xahar. Cheesy
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Smid
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« Reply #721 on: May 08, 2011, 07:04:24 PM »


Exceptional work!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #722 on: May 08, 2011, 10:26:48 PM »

Ominous trends for Liberal Irwin Cotler in Mount Royal (Pierre Trudeau's old seat, once considered the most Liberal in Canada):

1999 by-election: 92%
2000: 81%
2004: 76%
2006: 65%
2008: 56%
2011: 41%

Cotler beat the Conservative in 2011 by just under 6 points. If the Liberals continue to degenerate, is Mount Royal a reasonably likely Conservative pick-up in 2015?


Also, anyone else have some interesting riding trivia?

Tough to tell, al lot also depends on whether the Liberals rebound or disappear.  This is a pretty wealthy riding so I suspect in an NDP-Tory battle, the Tories would win, but in a Liberal-Tory battle the Liberals would win.
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Smid
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« Reply #723 on: May 08, 2011, 10:29:07 PM »

However, someone else already has:

Quote
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Though the way he describes it, I think he made a silly mistake. http://thoughtundermined.com/?p=2011

All very interesting... I've been playing with a spreadsheet for different reasons, which is designed to distribute preferences under AV, or OPV as it is called in Queensland and NSW (although it works just as well for compulsory preferential, by setting an expiry rate at 0%). Do any of those polls have preference flows by Province?

From the blog Max linked to:

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The rule of thumb I use (after hearing someone else mention it and it sounding reasonably accurate to me) is that the Coalition will win the seat if it receives greater than 45% primary vote and Labor receives less than 40% primary vote. If Labor receives >40% and the Coalition receives >45%, it's close and you need to look at it on a seat-by-seat basis. If Labor receives >40% and Coalition <45%, it's probably going to be Labor-held but look at it on seat-by-seat basis. If Labor outpolls Coalition, the seat will almost certainly be Labor-held.

I might shorten all this down...

1. If Labor outpolls Coalition, Labor-held (except in rare, but obvious circumstances, such as where the Greens could conceivably win the seat, or where there's a very popular independent).

2. If Coalition outpolls Labor, and receives >45% and Labor receives <40%, Coalition held.

3. If Coalition outpolls Labor and receives <45% and Labor receives >40%, very marginal, look at on a seat-by-seat basis, with the closer the Coalition is to 45% and the closer Labor is to 40% more likely to be a very marginal Coalition-held seat, the further the Coalition is from 45% and the closer Labor is to 45%, more likely to be very marginal Labor-held seat. If Labor and Coalition are very close to equal, Labor-held.

To extrapolate for Canadian results, you can probably say...

1. If Conservatives finish first with >45% of the vote, Conservative-held.

2. If Conservatives finish second, party that finishes first wins the seat.

3. If Conservatives finish third, party receiving Conservative preferences wins if that party finishes first or if the other party finishes first with a margin <5%. I figure the Conservatives would probably preference Liberals ahead of NDP on their official HTV card, but for strategic purposes, they may possibly preference the NDP.

I think generally it can be assumed that somewhere near 80% of Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Bloc or Greens voters would follow their party's HTV card (a report by the VEC suggests lower, but that report looks at voters that perfectly follow their party's card, and does not consider how the preferences flow to the final two candidates in the distribution and whether voters have followed their party's endorsement between those two candidates, therefore I think it's better to use the AEC's tables of preference flows in each electorate showing the percentage of votes going from a primary vote to a particular excluded candidate to each of the winning candidates, in such cases, 70-80% of Greens preference the Labor candidate ahead of a Coalition candidate, with more seats at the 80% end rather than the 70% end... Family First is closer to a 60/40 split to the Coalition, but with fewer booth workers handing out for the party, fewer of their voters will receive a HTV card).

In Queensland and NSW, where preferencing is optional and voters can "just vote 1" if they desire, the expiry rate is close to 50%, so the "would not vote" option in those polls does not seem far wrong to me - I'd expect a country more used to multiple parties would be more likely to preference than a country with two dominant parties... the interesting thing, however, is that the Greens expiry rate is still at that 50% rate, even though Greens voters must surely know that their first preference is less likely to be counted to the final count.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #724 on: May 08, 2011, 10:31:15 PM »

...but the NDP came fourth in the Yukon.

After possessing this seat from 1987-2000 (by NDP's then-leader for the most part).  Funny how trends shift around almost at random in Canada.
North of the 60th parallel, people tend to vote more for candidates rather than party.  In Southern Canada it is a different story, but in Northern Canada, any party can win if they have a strong candidate.
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