Canadian Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 123971 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #675 on: May 05, 2011, 02:20:50 AM »

These  results in LaSalle-Emard are considered validated!
So did Marx-Leninist won a seat? (Its the NDP-Marx had there votes traded)

I dunno. I've been begging for answers but no one will say a word.
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Smid
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« Reply #676 on: May 05, 2011, 02:55:43 AM »

I think the result needs to be formally declared and the website isn't the formal declaration and therefore doesn't actually have any legal status. The successful candidate doesn't become the member until the declaration by Elections Canada and the figures on the website are for information purposes only.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #677 on: May 05, 2011, 03:32:51 AM »

Two things could have happened.
1 - The person at the website putting in the data made a mistake.
If this is true, then no biggie, all will be fixed by morning.
2 - The returning officer, on his validated return, made a mistake.
If this is true, then since these results are valid, someone will need to challenge it, or, this person becomes elected.
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Smid
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« Reply #678 on: May 05, 2011, 03:45:09 AM »

Two things could have happened.
1 - The person at the website putting in the data made a mistake.
If this is true, then no biggie, all will be fixed by morning.
2 - The returning officer, on his validated return, made a mistake.
If this is true, then since these results are valid, someone will need to challenge it, or, this person becomes elected.

Yes, quite right. I'd presupposed option 1 and suspected that's the case. If option 2 is the case, it may well need to be challenged, because that would probably be a legal document.

I think option 1 is more likely, though, because if the error had been made prior to the figures being entered into the computer, they would have probably been flagged by the person entering them, and the media probably would have picked up on it by now.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #679 on: May 05, 2011, 06:01:38 AM »

Quebec votes and seats:

NDP - 42.9% - 58 seats
BQ - 23.4% - 4 seats
Con - 16.5% - 6 seats
Liberal - 14.2% - 7 seats

lol FPTP, 2nd-4th vote/seat rankings are inverted.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #680 on: May 05, 2011, 06:16:31 AM »

Two things could have happened.
1 - The person at the website putting in the data made a mistake.
If this is true, then no biggie, all will be fixed by morning.
2 - The returning officer, on his validated return, made a mistake.
If this is true, then since these results are valid, someone will need to challenge it, or, this person becomes elected.

Yes, quite right. I'd presupposed option 1 and suspected that's the case. If option 2 is the case, it may well need to be challenged, because that would probably be a legal document.

I think option 1 is more likely, though, because if the error had been made prior to the figures being entered into the computer, they would have probably been flagged by the person entering them, and the media probably would have picked up on it by now.

Elections Canada can not "flag" anything, nor report anything of the sort to the media unless asked. The media has not asked, probably because they think it's a website error.
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Meeker
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« Reply #681 on: May 05, 2011, 09:49:02 AM »

They just flipped the MLPC and NDP numbers; not a big deal. The data has already been corrected on their website.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #682 on: May 05, 2011, 10:01:11 AM »

Has anyone seen a handy list of all the ridings that switched parties, with results from 2008 vs 2011?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #683 on: May 05, 2011, 10:12:43 AM »

Some random facts... apologies for any errors...

1. Michael Ignatieff is the first Leader of the Opposition to lose his seat since Robert Manion in 1940. He is also the first Leader of the Liberal Party to lose his seat since Mackenzie King in 1945. Let that sink in for a moment.

2. Gilles Duceppe is the first Quebec-based party leader to lose his seat since Fabian Roy (Social Credit) in 1980.

3. Looking at the ridings held by Prime Ministers since 1945, the Tories hold the successor seats to both of Mackenzie King (Prince Albert and Glengarry; the latter being in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell now), of John Diefenbaker (Prince Albert) and Joe Clark (Yellowhead). The NDP now hold the successor seats to those held by Paul Martin (LaSalle—Émard), Jean Chrétien (Saint Maurice, now split between Saint Maurice-Champlain and Berthier-Maskinongé), Brian Mulroney (first Manicouagan then Charlevoix; so the current Manicouagan and Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord ridings) and Lester Pearson (Algoma East; now Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing) and Louis St. Laurent (Québec-Est; split between multiple Quebec City ridings, all of which are now NDP held). The Liberals continue to hold the seats of Pierre Trudeau (Mount Royal) and John Turner (Vancouver Quadra) and the seat that they took from Kim Campbell in 1993 (Vancouver Centre).

4. The NDP now hold the successor seats to four of the six ridings held by previous NDP leaders, up from three before the election. These are both of Tommy Douglas's ridings (Burnaby-Coquitlam - population growth means that multiple ridings cover that area now, but all are NDP - and Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands which is now just Nanaimo-Cowichan. Parts might be in other seats of course), David Lewis (York South, now mostly in York South-Weston - parts are also in Davenport - NDP - and Eglinton-Lawrence - Con. Yeah Toronto redrawing was pretty radical in the late 1970s) and Alexa McDonough (Halifax). Oshawa and Yukon are both held by the Conservatives; the former would be vulnerable to an NDP gain if the Harper government becomes unpopular and the NDP retains its current viability, but the NDP came fourth in the Yukon.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #684 on: May 05, 2011, 10:19:55 AM »

Some random facts... apologies for any errors...

1. Michael Ignatieff is the first Leader of the Opposition to lose his seat since Robert Manion in 1940. He is also the first Leader of the Liberal Party to lose his seat since Mackenzie King in 1945. Let that sink in for a moment.
Okay, I'm letting the fact that Mackenzie King lost his seat in 1945 sink in. Didn't know that.

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Joe Republic
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« Reply #685 on: May 05, 2011, 10:32:32 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2011, 10:44:56 AM by Where's the death certificate?? »

...but the NDP came fourth in the Yukon.

After possessing this seat from 1987-2000 (by NDP's then-leader for the most part).  Funny how trends shift around almost at random in Canada.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #686 on: May 05, 2011, 10:40:23 AM »

So potential dippers preferred the Green, for whatever reason. And these northern ridings are all very personal-vote affected. The Tory will either aquire a personal vote or lose to a more united left campaign the next time around. Which might well be NDP. First scenario is more likely though.
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DL
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« Reply #687 on: May 05, 2011, 12:22:24 PM »

The NDP actually came out of no where to almost win heavily Sikh Bramalea-Gore-Malton and they picked up heavily South Asian ridings in suburban Vancouver like Newton-North Delta and Surrey North. Scarborough-Rouge River also went NDP in a shock upset (NDP vote went from 13% to 40%!!) and that seat is 89% (no typo) foreign-born and heavily Tamil (as is the new NDP MP). So for all the talk about Tory inroads in the immigrant communities - there was also an under-reported NDP story happening.


But yeah, I hate when people are referring to the GTA, and call it Toronto. Big difference.


But, going back to the Liberal collapse - more people should be talking about Mississauga-Brampton! Peel region has gone entirely Tory, and by a far wider swing than Toronto. The Tory takeover of Brampton, at the very least, could be evidence that their targeting minorities strategy has worked, if only among the Indians. Or that they were right about immigrants only voting Liberal out of nostalgia.

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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #688 on: May 05, 2011, 02:13:28 PM »

The NDP actually came out of no where to almost win heavily Sikh Bramalea-Gore-Malton and they picked up heavily South Asian ridings in suburban Vancouver like Newton-North Delta and Surrey North. Scarborough-Rouge River also went NDP in a shock upset (NDP vote went from 13% to 40%!!) and that seat is 89% (no typo) foreign-born and heavily Tamil (as is the new NDP MP). So for all the talk about Tory inroads in the immigrant communities - there was also an under-reported NDP story happening.


But yeah, I hate when people are referring to the GTA, and call it Toronto. Big difference.


But, going back to the Liberal collapse - more people should be talking about Mississauga-Brampton! Peel region has gone entirely Tory, and by a far wider swing than Toronto. The Tory takeover of Brampton, at the very least, could be evidence that their targeting minorities strategy has worked, if only among the Indians. Or that they were right about immigrants only voting Liberal out of nostalgia.


I suppose it was remarked on less because it was less unusual - a conservative party rarely does well among immigrant communities in this country compared to a party of the left.
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Holmes
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« Reply #689 on: May 05, 2011, 05:18:32 PM »

Yeah, but seeing as the Conservatives won their majority, the media only cares about their inroads.

As for Bramalea-Gore-Malton, less than a 1% loss! How sad. Have you seen any debate videos? Singh was the only one not reading any papers, was very articulate and on point, and was the only one (Green candidate not counting) who didn't speak with a heavy accent -- although that's probably not a con in that riding. He seemed like a great candidate, I hope he runs again, but with the election probably in four years, it seems too premature to start discussing future candidates.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #690 on: May 05, 2011, 05:59:17 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2011, 06:06:11 PM by DistingFlyer »

Has anyone seen a handy list of all the ridings that switched parties, with results from 2008 vs 2011?

Comparing with the last election (not counting by-elections, party switches & the like) these are the seats to change hands:

Atlantic (6)

Ind to Cons (1)
Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley (NS)

Lib to Cons (3)
Labrador (NL)
Madawaska – Restigouche (NB)   
Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe (NB)   

Lib to NDP (2)
Dartmouth – Cole Harbour (NS)   
St. John’s South – Mount Pearl (NL)   


Quebec (58)

BQ to NDP (45)
Abitibi – Baie-James – Nunavik – Eeyou   
Abitibi – Témiscamingue   
Alfred-Pellan   
Argenteuil – Papineau – Mirabel   
Beauharnois – Salaberry   
Berthier – Maskinongé   
Brome – Missisquoi   
Chambly – Borduas   
Châteauguay – Saint-Constant   
Chicoutimi – Le Fjord   
Compton – Stanstead   
Drummond   
Gaspésie – Îles-de-la-Madeleine   
Gatineau   
Hochelaga   
Jeanne-Le Ber   
Joliette   
Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher   
La Point-de-l’Île   
Laurentides – Labelle   
Laurier – Sainte-Marie   
Laval   
Louis-Hébert   
Manicouagan   
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin   
Montcalm   
Montmagny – L’Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup (RECOUNTING)   
Montmorency – Charlevoix – Haute-Côte-Nord   
Québec   
Repentigny   
Rimouski-Neigette – Témiscouata – Les Basques   
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles   
Rivière-du-Nord   
Rosemont – La Petite-Patrie   
Saint-Bruno – Saint-Hubert   
Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot   
Saint-Jean   
Saint-Lambert   
Saint-Maurice – Champlain   
Shefford   
Sherbrooke   
Terrebonne – Blainville   
Trois-Rivières   
Vaudreuil – Soulanges   
Verchères – Les Patriotes   

Cons to NDP (5)
Beauport – Limoilou   
Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles   
Jonquière – Alma   
Louis-Saint-Laurent   
Pontiac   

Ind to NDP (1)
Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier

Lib to NDP (7)
Brossard – La Prairie   
Honoré-Mercier   
Hull – Aylmer   
LaSalle – Émard   
Laval – Les-Îles   
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine   
Pierrefonds – Dollard   


Ontario (28)

Lib to Cons (21)
Ajax – Pickering   
Bramalea – Gore – Malton   
Brampton West   
Brampton – Springdale   
Don Valley East   
Don Valley West   
Eglinton – Lawrence   
Etobicoke Centre (RECOUNTING)
Etobicoke – Lakeshore   
London North Centre   
Mississauga East – Cooksville   
Mississauga South   
Mississauga – Brampton South   
Mississauga – Streetsville   
Nipissing – Timiskaming (RECOUNTING)
Pickering – Scarborough East   
Richmond Hill   
Scarborough Centre   
Vaughan   
Willowdale   
York Centre   

Lib to NDP (6)
Beaches – East York   
Davenport   
Parkdale – High Park   
Scarborough Southwest   
Scarborough – Rouge River   
York South – Weston   

NDP to Cons (1)
Sault Ste. Marie


West & North (9)

Cons to GP (1)
Saanich – Gulf Islands (BC)

Cons to NDP (1)
Surrey North (BC)   

Lib to Cons (3)
Vancouver South (BC)   
Winnipeg South Centre (MB)   
Yukon (YK)   

Lib to NDP (2)
Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca (BC)   
Newton – North Delta (BC)   

NDP to Cons (1)
Elmwood – Transcona (MB)

NDP to Lib (1)
Winnipeg North (MB)

A total of 101 seats changed hands - quite a few, but not as many as the 120 in 1984 or the 203 in 1993.

Cons   143   +30     –7   166
Lib        77     +1   –44     34
BQ        49      –45       4
NDP        37   +69     –3   103
Ind          2        –2
GP           +1          1
TOTAL   308         308
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #691 on: May 05, 2011, 11:28:26 PM »

Never thought I'd see the day where the NDP's worst riding was 9%, and almost every riding had at least 10%.

And, what was the NDP's worst riding? Crowfoot, where they still finished 2nd!
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Make Politics Boring Again
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« Reply #692 on: May 06, 2011, 01:32:45 AM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSmMOkIGAks
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Holmes
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« Reply #693 on: May 06, 2011, 05:13:37 PM »

What worries me is the NDP losses outside of Quebec... with nearly 60% of the caucus now coming from there, and many of the newbies being totally new to politics, I hope they remember that the party stands for labour and farmers' rights. Many of the (serious) candidates outside of the province were serious FFs in that regard, whereas a lot of the winners in Quebec don't seem to be... maybe I'm worrying for nothing.
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Doctor V
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« Reply #694 on: May 07, 2011, 03:47:41 AM »

What worries me is the NDP losses outside of Quebec... with nearly 60% of the caucus now coming from there, and many of the newbies being totally new to politics, I hope they remember that the party stands for labour and farmers' rights. Many of the (serious) candidates outside of the province were serious FFs in that regard, whereas a lot of the winners in Quebec don't seem to be... maybe I'm worrying for nothing.

That's my concern as well. But I'd hope the leadership realizes these dangers and will try to do things intelligently.
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Doctor V
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« Reply #695 on: May 07, 2011, 04:06:31 PM »

Here are a couple of maps. Of course that's nothing compared with other maps that have been posted, but if you don't mind. Wink


Percentages by province (Atlas scale) :








And here is "trend", ie the difference between change in the province and overall change. The 0% shade is for a trend lower than -5, 20% is between -5 and 0, 40% is between 0 and 5, etc...








NDP is quite horrible, if I must say...
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redcommander
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« Reply #696 on: May 07, 2011, 04:14:26 PM »

Do you think Layton will put Brosseau in his shadow cabinet?
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Doctor V
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« Reply #697 on: May 07, 2011, 04:14:27 PM »

Here's what the election would look like in a 3-way tie (each party has 29.72%) :




And the same map excluding Québec (each party has 31.53%) :



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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #698 on: May 07, 2011, 06:00:33 PM »

Slightly off topic, when is the next Question Period?
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trebor204
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« Reply #699 on: May 07, 2011, 06:54:52 PM »

Slightly off topic, when is the next Question Period?

I heard Parliament might return on May 30th.
First there needs to an election of Speaker, and then a throne speech. Maybe June 1st will be the first question period. (Question period normally starts at 2:15 pm est Mon-Thur)
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