Canadian Election Results Thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Interesting comparing this to my projections

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

reminder of my projection:

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/ everyone must listen it's just that awesome.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I was closer than anyone

ME

I WAS!!!

words can not express how happy I am right now.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I checked, and this was actually the best NDP result in Saskatchewan since 1988. Despite winning no seats.

I do not understand why the boundary commission would draw those seats like  that.

They almost did not.
http://www.elections.ca/scripts/fedrep/sask/sask_map_e.htm
|The Liberals were in power in both 2004 and 1994 and thus, the way the map is now is the way they'd win the maximum number of seats.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

On the greens winning a seat:

Back in 1989 Reform won a single seat. The office manager for that MP was one Stephen Harper.

A seat is what you make of it.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Why are Labrador and the PEI ridings underpopulated compared to the rest of the country?

If I'm not mistaken it has to do with an old rule that no province can have a fewer number of seats than it had during the first parliament. Or something like that. 

1972 Parliament.

Also, there is a clause that prohibits any province from having more Senators than MPs, and in 1972, NL and NS each only had 1 more MP, so even if that 1972 rule were to go, the Atlantic would still have at least 30 MPs.

As for Labrador, it was decided to make it it's own seat rather than combine it with something on the Island of Newfoundland. This is partly because it is "northern". Most "northern" ridings are empty. Check Kenora for example.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also, ilikeverin, in Canadian English "Howard" does not start with the same vowel as "house" or "doubt" (except the verb "house" with the voiced consonant). Canadian English raising before voiceless consonants is one of the its most distinctive features, hence all the "aboot" jokes.

Well, o/c.  I myself have Canadian raising before voiceless consonants for /aj/ But there's nothing schwa-like in the first syllable of "Howard", unless you're from way in the olden days when apparently /aw/ was always [əw].

More like a "real" a than an aw, I'd have said. But that distinction often gets blurred in Americans too, so...

Ah, yes.  Don't try to tell a Canadian or Californian that "cot" and "caught" can be pronounced differently, or else they'll get quite confused about why anyone would ever say such a thing   (For that matter, don't try to tell me.  Stupid Michiganders and their stupid lack of a merger! )

I really don't have any idea how they could possibly be pronounced differently.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How do you pronounce ɒ and ɔ

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Is it like the different way british people pronounce "Knotty" and "Naughty"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Back to the results...

Recount scheduled for Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup. NDP leads the Conservatives by five votes.

CBC and other sources say CON incumbent Bernard Généreux is leading by 110 votes. This does not qualify for an automatic recount, but the NDP has paid for a requested one.

Where did you get "NDP leading by 5 votes" from?

You should follow my blog, I reported this hours ago.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Liberals did godawful across Northern Ontario. Not only did some Liberals swing to the NDP to stop the Conservatives, many did the same to the Conservatives to stop the NDP.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've taken a look at the Liberal Caucus, and I find very few of them that are at danger of defection. The only three that seem logical are Bob Rae to the NDP, and Joyce Murray and Stephane Dion to the Greens.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greater_toronto_area_map.svg

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://yfrog.com/hs34gyp

Not shopped. http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

These  results in LaSalle-Emard are considered validated!
So did Marx-Leninist won a seat? (Its the NDP-Marx had there votes traded)

I dunno. I've been begging for answers but no one will say a word.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Two things could have happened.
1 - The person at the website putting in the data made a mistake.
If this is true, then no biggie, all will be fixed by morning.
2 - The returning officer, on his validated return, made a mistake.
If this is true, then since these results are valid, someone will need to challenge it, or, this person becomes elected.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Two things could have happened.
1 - The person at the website putting in the data made a mistake.
If this is true, then no biggie, all will be fixed by morning.
2 - The returning officer, on his validated return, made a mistake.
If this is true, then since these results are valid, someone will need to challenge it, or, this person becomes elected.

Yes, quite right. I'd presupposed option 1 and suspected that's the case. If option 2 is the case, it may well need to be challenged, because that would probably be a legal document.

I think option 1 is more likely, though, because if the error had been made prior to the figures being entered into the computer, they would have probably been flagged by the person entering them, and the media probably would have picked up on it by now.

Elections Canada can not "flag" anything, nor report anything of the sort to the media unless asked. The media has not asked, probably because they think it's a website error.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Results of the election with PR :

	FPP	Nat	NB	Pr
Con	167	128	164	128
NDP	102	99	79	98
Lib	34	61	49	60
BQ	4	20	16	18
Gr	1	0	0	4

Nat : National PR, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold.
NB : National PR, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold for 246 seats. 62 seats (20%) given to the winning party.
Pr : PR by province, Ste Lagüe method with a 5% threshold.

Interestingly, no notable distortion between provincial and national PR despite the unfairness of the repartition of seats between provinces. The greens manage to break the threshold in Alberta (1 seat) and BC (3 seats).

I'd like to experiment some math about what it would look like with AV, but I'm too lazy to look at 308 different ridings. I guess the liberals would benefit the most from it.

I know someone who is doing all 308 for AV. I'll contact him for results and let you know.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Ekos does polls asking who people's second preference is.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Both the NDP and Tories were western based white man protestant parties until very recently.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Lincoln Alexander was not white either, but the overwhelming majority of his caucus mates were.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Quebec's federal revenue and federal spending share is about even. Quebec does not benefit as much as you say. The 6 "smaller" provinces do to massive degrees.

I have links to prove this but have to go to work. If there is a challenge I will produce these links later tonight.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

BC has a tradition of voting against the federal government of the day.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I dun make this
http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?hl=en&geocode=&ie=UTF8&vps=1&jsv=338b&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a339e65b69873c792