Canadian Election Results Thread (user search)
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  Canadian Election Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124315 times)
Foucaulf
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« on: May 02, 2011, 06:36:28 PM »

Wayne Easter (Malpeque) leading Conservative opponent.

This was the only potential seat change in PEI. Don't think it's happening.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2011, 06:48:30 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2011, 06:50:28 PM by Foucaulf »

Ridings to watch:

St. John's South - Mount Pearl, where the Liberals are defending against repeat NDP candidate Ryan Cleary, apparently only deciding to run again because of Layton. His gamble seems to have paid off.

Dartmouth - Cole Harbour, where the race between Liberal Mike Savage and "former NDP provincial leader" Robert Chisholm have baffled predictors.

Central Nova, where Defence Minister Peter McKay's 2008 victory against Elizabeth May could mean nothing if defeated by NDP challenger David Parker, teacher.

Madawaska - Restigouche, where Liberal J.C. D'Amours could end up in third place, lending to a Conservative-NDP fight in this Acadian Francophone constituency.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2011, 06:59:50 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2011, 07:05:57 PM by Foucaulf »

I imagine the results that are start to pick up in Atlantic Canada, any updates here.

Whoever's feeding Bernard Keane the results at least knows how to make them look plausible. Liberal 10, Conservative 5 and NDP 3 is the best guess.

It's all a crapshoot if there aren't good Nova Scotia/New Brunswick results. If NDP defeats McKay, however, that shows enough of a swing for 9-10 seats at the end.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2011, 07:13:38 PM »

Conservatives winning in South Shore - St. Margaret's?

Guy has 13 CON, 12 LIB, 7 NDP
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2011, 07:21:49 PM »

South Shore swung heavily to the NDP in the provincial election, but they're swinging away now. They're upset about the prov govt's cancellation of the Yarmouth Ferry among other things.

Considering the Daxter government's economic shock therapy, I should have known Nova Soctia wouldn't lean so heavily NDP this time.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2011, 07:26:24 PM »

In Halifax West, NDP candidate Gregor Ash leading LIB Geoff Regan "by 600"
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2011, 07:31:40 PM »

LIB Scott Andrews's lead in Avalon is widening?

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour has been called for the NDP
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2011, 07:37:33 PM »

Tracking seat changes so far. Certain projections are bolded:

St. John's South Mount Pearl: LIB -> NDP
Dartmouth Cole Harbour: LIB -> NDP
Halifax West: LIB -> NDP

Think the two CON gains are in New Brunswick, but unconfirmed.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2011, 07:41:06 PM »

In Kings - Hantis, PC-turned-Liberal Scott Brison is leading "by 300 votes"

Quoting from the Pundit's Guide:

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Foucaulf
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2011, 07:44:10 PM »

First shocker?

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Foucaulf
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2011, 07:46:55 PM »


But that must mean Duceppe was beaten so badly we can predict it now!

It's spreading along the twitterverse, so might as well get it done with.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2011, 07:50:51 PM »

"Supposedly Duceppe loses to NPD in Laurier-Ste Marie."

See?

"Andrews [LIB] confirmed in Avalon, thus finishing off Newfoundland."
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2011, 08:01:08 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2011, 08:02:47 PM by Foucaulf »

Ridings to watch in Quebec:

All of them.


Ridings to watch in Ontario:

Kenora, where if the orange wave strikes can end the Conservative pursuit for a majority.

Simcoe-Grey for the duel between local MP Helena Guergis, cast out of Harper's caucus, and the Tories' own candidate.

The Brampton trio (West, Springdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton) to witness Harper's success at gaining the ethnic vote (Indians in particular)

Trinity-Spadina, Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York, where the NDP or the Liberals can gain it all in Toronto's left coast.

Essex, Brant, and Kitchener-Centre, where the strength of the NDP candidates may let them beat the odds.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2011, 08:07:20 PM »


Nfld is an unique case since their time zone is half an hour ahead.

Pacific ridings close at 7 = 4:00 CET.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2011, 08:17:23 PM »

"Jfd888" on Twitter said that "Exit polls show NDP gains in the Toronto suburbs failed to materialize. Big CON Margins."

Saw it on CBC. The account is now terminated.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2011, 08:38:56 PM »

On the West Coast, getting CBC's results.

CON 18, LIB 12, NDP 9
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2011, 08:43:44 PM »

NEW BRUNSWICK POPULAR VOTE: 43.9 CON, 30.5 NDP, 21.8 LIB.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2011, 08:45:32 PM »

And CBC has just cut off. Local news channels list the end of polling in 15 minutes.

Godspeed, you Easterners!
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2011, 08:49:59 PM »

The Quebec wave may be larger than we have all predicted. Have you seen any LIB -> CON gains yet?

I don't trust CTV, by the way - thinks it's a Conservative shill.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2011, 08:54:09 PM »


Judging from the Atlantic results I saw, current popular vote %s are similar to the last Nanos poll:

37.1 CON, 31.6 NDP, 20.5 LIB, 5.7 BQ, 3.8 GRN
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2011, 08:57:36 PM »

BQ just dropped to 2... I'm not sure what CBC is counting.  I assumed these were seats that were called, not as they go.

Perhaps they have a computer that counts all ridings where a party leads as "going" to that party?
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2011, 08:58:36 PM »

Via Twitter:

CTV is declaring a Conservative win 44-23-21-3

Vote percentages, I assume?

Conservative majority, ~170 seats.

That would mean the most accurate pollster was COMPAS?
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2011, 09:04:38 PM »

CBC TV went back up.

Currently CON 38.9, NDP 29.8, LIB 27.8, GRN and others insignificant.

No way Iggie survives this to stay on as leader.

He may not even try. Etobicoke-Lakeshore has a Conservative leading.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #23 on: May 02, 2011, 09:07:29 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2011, 09:10:13 PM by Foucaulf »

CBC QUEBEC POPULAR VOTE RESULTS:

NDP 38.0, BQ 24.1, CON 20.3, LIB ~13?

MANITOBA:

CON 51.3, NDP 29 LIB 15.2
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #24 on: May 02, 2011, 09:17:33 PM »

NDP supporters cheering... until a Tory majority is called in an hour or two. Sad

Duceppe is losing his seat BADLY

With that said, now that NDP is official opposition they can blame the Liberals.

Still think the Liberals will be torn apart after the election.
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