Canadian Election Results Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124492 times)
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« on: May 02, 2011, 10:01:51 PM »

So, after Bloq Quebecois, whither Quebecan nationalism?

The Bloc has always been ancillary to the Quebec separatist movement. The PQ took power for the first time in Quebec well before the Bloc was a glimmer in anyone's eye. The Quebec nationalists will go back to focusing on provincial politics as they did the in the 1970s and 80s.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2011, 10:03:00 PM »

So why did the Liberals not get wiped out in the Maritimes?

TRA-dition!
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2011, 10:16:25 PM »

The only consolation for "progressives" today is that the Tories' Atlantic and Ontario caucus certainly outnumbers those from the West. The centre of political gravity has shifted once again to the East.
Then again, this is the province that gave Mike Harris to the world...

And it's also the province that took Mike Harris away. A Conservative majority now is unlikely to be a Conservative government in 2015.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2011, 10:27:20 PM »

The only consolation for "progressives" today is that the Tories' Atlantic and Ontario caucus certainly outnumbers those from the West. The centre of political gravity has shifted once again to the East.
Then again, this is the province that gave Mike Harris to the world...

And it's also the province that took Mike Harris away. A Conservative majority now is unlikely to be a Conservative government in 2015.

And why would that be?

Looking at the results (and knowing from the pre-election polling that Liberal voters prefer the NDP more than 5-1 over the Conservatives), the Conservatives would lose a fair number of seats once the Liberals are out of the picture, and their majority is not very big as-is. Plus, it's hard to see the Conservatives in a majority government being able to resist doing things that will make them deeply unpopular in places like the GTA.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2011, 10:50:36 PM »

The parade of egos left in the Liberal Party is sort of amusing.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2011, 10:54:05 PM »

He also said, "others will follow until Quebec becomes a country. ... Quebec needs to become a free country."

Planning for the PQ leadership still, I see. Should have taken it in 2007 when he could.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2011, 10:56:01 PM »

Bloc has slipped into the lead in Bas-Richelieu with only a few polls left. Sloooooow counting in Quebec.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2011, 11:07:14 PM »

He also said, "others will follow until Quebec becomes a country. ... Quebec needs to become a free country."

Planning for the PQ leadership still, I see. Should have taken it in 2007 when he could.

Well, that's still a huge step down for him.

No, it's not. The PQ has always been more important than the BQ, and he would have the opportunity to form a government as PQ leader. Even before this defeat, I think being PQ leader was a bigger position than being BQ leader (but in 2007 Duceppe didn't want a slugfest with Marois that would have exposed the schisms between the social-democratic and conservative wings of the PQ). I think this defeat has tainted him too much, though.

(Curious what the NDP breakthrough will do for the QS's polling, if anything.)
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2011, 11:18:04 PM »

While they won their first seat in an election, they acutally lost 3% of the vote nationwide.  I'm sorry, but I don't see what the big deal is here.  Sure, you won a seat, but come on, it's only one seat.

The seat is symbolically important for the Greens. They've struggled to be recognized as a real party without a seat (the debates controversy in 2008, for example); May winning in Saanich will change that.

I doubt the Greens will gain more seats in 2015, except maybe Vancouver Centre if they're really lucky, and they might end up merged into the NDP before then, but it's still a significant moment for the Greens, just overshadowed by other significant moments.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2011, 11:23:08 PM »

He also said, "others will follow until Quebec becomes a country. ... Quebec needs to become a free country."

Planning for the PQ leadership still, I see. Should have taken it in 2007 when he could.

Well, that's still a huge step down for him.

No, it's not. The PQ has always been more important than the BQ, and he would have the opportunity to form a government as PQ leader. Even before this defeat, I think being PQ leader was a bigger position than being BQ leader (but in 2007 Duceppe didn't want a slugfest with Marois that would have exposed the schisms between the social-democratic and conservative wings of the PQ). I think this defeat has tainted him too much, though.

(Curious what the NDP breakthrough will do for the QS's polling, if anything.)


One wonders whether anyone has thought of starting a serious provincial NDP. Surely Mulcair could beat the dismal pair of Charest and Marois...

There already is a provincial NDP. The QS. (Well, sort of. The QS is actually descended from the old provincial NDP. The Quebec NDP disaffiliated with the federal NDP in the early 1990s because they wanted to be sovereigntist, then later merged with some other small lefty outfits to form the UFP, which then merged with Option Citoyenne in 2007 to create QS.)

Quebec provincial politics is too starkly split along separatist-unionist lines that I can't see the NDP wanting to wade into the mire. Maybe. No way Mulcair would lead it, though; he's now the heir apparent to Jack Layton and hence a contender for Prime Minister.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2011, 11:40:01 PM »

So, isn't it a bit odd that Layton and Chow are both MPs?  Clearly they can't have the same "home address" if they're both MPs.

Canada doesn't require one to live in a seat to run for it. I'm not sure if they're even required to live in the province.

Ahh, I didn't realize that.  I'd still think it'd be hard to get elected if you don't live there.  Surely that must get brought up in the campaigns?

I does in more provincial areas, but not usually in the cities, at least assuming that you live somewhere in the city. (All of the Toronto MPs who play musical chairs still live Toronto; someone could get elected for a seat anywhere in Montreal provided they live somewhere in Montreal, etc.)
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2011, 11:44:48 PM »

Lawrence Joseph closed very strongly in the late polls in Desnethe, I notice. Not quite enough, but at the next election...
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2011, 11:46:57 PM »

Mourani now in the lead in Ahuntsic again. Anyone have any theories as to why she was able to hold on to her vote when every other Bloquiste in Montreal saw their supporters abandon them in droves? Mourani always struck me as a weak candidate when she was campaigning against the Liberals in the past.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2011, 11:56:15 PM »

Why is Abbotsford so hideously right wing? I can see it being right wing but like that, wow.

Mennonites, I think. Maybe there is some Dutch Reform spillover from Lynden, Washington, too.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2011, 11:43:53 AM »

Why are Labrador and the PEI ridings underpopulated compared to the rest of the country?

If I'm not mistaken it has to do with an old rule that no province can have a fewer number of seats than it had during the first parliament. Or something like that. 

It has something to do with the number of Senators, too. Only Ontario, BC and Alberta ridings are not undersized.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2011, 04:05:45 PM »

Interesting results in Saskatchewan. Take Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar, where Greens and Grits won 2% each. With the current boundaries, has the NDP hit a ceiling at about 45%? There aren't any more Liberal or Green voters to take votes from, and the rest are presumably suburban and rural Tories not exactly receptive to the NDP. Are there similar "ceilings" in other ridings in the Prairies?

See Edmonton East. Ray Martin should run in Edmonton Centre next time.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2011, 09:52:50 AM »

Is it like the different way british people pronounce "Knotty" and "Naughty"

I pronounce those differently, too. Weird Canadians.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2011, 09:29:12 AM »

The Liberals were, generally, able to keep "English Canada" and Quebec happy at the same time - that is, outside the West. Given the current CPC dominance on the Prairies (3 opposition seats out of 56 total) I don't think that the threat of "losing the west" is a serious concern for the NDP.

What about BC? Or is that not what you think of when talking about the "West"?

BC is very different, or at least urban/coastal BC is. And the opposition only has two seats (Skeena and Southern Interior) in rural BC. Western Alienation really only applies to rural western Canada--even Calgary doesn't really qualify, although it is Conservative for other reasons. Historically the rural West was competitive, but these days it isn't, and the NDP or Liberals don't need to win anything in the rural West to win nationally.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #18 on: May 29, 2011, 10:44:16 PM »

In large part due to the tactical voting in Saanich, although the NDP has been underperforming in rural Vancouver Island of late as well. Jean Crowder should keep watching her back; bad news for her that the CPC vote went up again without Reed Elley running this time.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #19 on: May 30, 2011, 05:40:03 PM »

Cool beans. Doubt that choosing Rae as interim leader and staying in the dark "restructuring" for a few years will really get them out of the mid to high 10's.

I have to say, the Liberals' strategy is baffling. It's as if they believe there is no purpose to a political party other than to campaign for elections--so they don't need a leader until the next election. It just plays into all the stereotypes about the Liberals just being a vessel for personal achievement of power. Except now they are remote from power, so they look pathetic instead.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #20 on: May 30, 2011, 08:22:18 PM »

The Liberals were at 32.7% in a Nanos poll as recently as March 30th. Last time they were over 33% was last May, when they polled at 33.2%.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #21 on: June 19, 2011, 06:17:07 PM »

2.  The NDP is unable to appeal to both its Quebec caucus and Western caucus so their support blows up in their face much the way the Mulroney PCs did who tried to do the same thing so the Liberals once again are the main alternative and when people finally get tired of the Tories, they turn to the Liberals.

There are a couple of differences here. The first is that the NDP is no longer a Western party in any meaningful sense; its base of support has shifted entirely, although it remains the only real alternative in most of the West. The second is that the NDP is constituted on an ideological basis, which the Mulroney PCs never had. There are no right-wing NDP MPs who have no real business being in the party; the NDP has always been a social-democratic party, whether its support come from the West or the East. Violent internal spats are far less likely as a result.

Additionally, the NDP is not in government, and such ideological fractures only come to the fore when a party is in government (and thus has to make decisions).

And by the time the NDP wins government, if they do, the Liberals will already be hopelessly defunct and without the finances to regain power or influence.
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