Canadian Election Results Thread

[Хahar 🤔]

This is the way things are normally done, so post results here. I can't lock the other thread, of course; just don't post there.

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Just realized-Liberals are still leading in Winnipeg North!

Hilarious, isn't it?

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Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

He would have a bit more credibility if he were a member of the NDP, wouldn't he?

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He also said, "others will follow until Quebec becomes a country. ... Quebec needs to become a free country."

Planning for the PQ leadership still, I see. Should have taken it in 2007 when he could.

Well, that's still a huge step down for him.

No, it's not. The PQ has always been more important than the BQ, and he would have the opportunity to form a government as PQ leader. Even before this defeat, I think being PQ leader was a bigger position than being BQ leader (but in 2007 Duceppe didn't want a slugfest with Marois that would have exposed the schisms between the social-democratic and conservative wings of the PQ). I think this defeat has tainted him too much, though.

(Curious what the NDP breakthrough will do for the QS's polling, if anything.)

One wonders whether anyone has thought of starting a serious provincial NDP. Surely Mulcair could beat the dismal pair of Charest and Marois...

There would be the old question of whether that party would be federalist or sovereigntist. Leave Quebec City to the Parti Québécois. The NDP can have Ottawa.

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Ah, I see that the NDP gained (the successor to) David Lewis's old seat.

Finally back in the fold after all these years. Wonderful.

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So, isn't it a bit odd that Layton and Chow are both MPs?  Clearly they can't have the same "home address" if they're both MPs.

Canada doesn't require one to live in a seat to run for it. I'm not sure if they're even required to live in the province.

Stockwell Day notably represented a British Columbia riding.

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Westmount—Ville-Marie will hold, it appears. Hilarious.

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I checked, and this was actually the best NDP result in Saskatchewan since 1988. Despite winning no seats.

I do not understand why the boundary commission would draw those seats like  that.

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While the NDP hasn't really been a western party since the rise of Reform, this election pounded that point home. For fun, here's a table of CCF/NDP seat totals by province:

Year	Terr.	B.C.	Alta.	Sask.	Man.	Ont.	Que.	East	Total
1935		3		2	2				7
1940		1		5	1			1	8
1945		4		18	5			1	28
1949		3		5	3	1		1	13
1953		7		11	3	1		1	23
1957		7		10	5	3			25
1958		4		1		3			8
1962		10			2	6		1	19
1963		9			2	6			17
1965		9			3	9			21
1968		7		6	3	6			22
1972	1	11		5	3	11			31
1974	1	2		2	2	8		1	16
1979	1	8		4	5	6		2	26
1980	1	12		7	7	5			32
1984		8		5	4	13			30
1988	1	19	1	10	2	10			43
1993	1	2		5	1				9
1997	1	3		5	4			8	21
2000		2		2	4	1		4	13
2004		5			4	7		3	19
2006	1	10			3	12		3	29
2008	1	9	1		4	17	1	4	37
2011	1	12	1		2	22	58	6	102

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Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

He would have a bit more credibility if he were a member of the NDP, wouldn't he?

He was a member of the NDP.

Exactly my point.

[Хahar 🤔]

Also, ilikeverin, in Canadian English "Howard" does not start with the same vowel as "house" or "doubt" (except the verb "house" with the voiced consonant). Canadian English raising before voiceless consonants is one of the its most distinctive features, hence all the "aboot" jokes.

Well, o/c.  I myself have Canadian raising before voiceless consonants for /aj/ But there's nothing schwa-like in the first syllable of "Howard", unless you're from way in the olden days when apparently /aw/ was always [əw].

More like a "real" a than an aw, I'd have said. But that distinction often gets blurred in Americans too, so...

Ah, yes.  Don't try to tell a Canadian or Californian that "cot" and "caught" can be pronounced differently, or else they'll get quite confused about why anyone would ever say such a thing   (For that matter, don't try to tell me.  Stupid Michiganders and their stupid lack of a merger! )

I really don't have any idea how they could possibly be pronounced differently.

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The NDP would never take Bob Rae back.

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This is an edit of Al's maps (which were based on Smid's blank map) using Earl's triangular system of shading which represents the margin of the winner over each party. Parties other than the three major parties are ignored. Note that the NDP is in green; the map doesn't work otherwise.

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1.  Why have the Conservatives gained so heavily in Manitoba.  They got 39% in 2004 and 54% in the last election, otherwise a 15% jump more so than Ontario.  They have an NDP government that is reasonably popular, they are still a have not province, and there doesn't seem to be any issue that would drive them towards the Conservatives unlike Saskatchewan which has a strong resource sector, a have province, and has a popular premier who is centre-right.

There's your answer. Note that the NDP vote share didn't pick up much in Nova Scotia, either.

[Хahar 🤔]

Churchill is missing from your >25% map.

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2.  The NDP is unable to appeal to both its Quebec caucus and Western caucus so their support blows up in their face much the way the Mulroney PCs did who tried to do the same thing so the Liberals once again are the main alternative and when people finally get tired of the Tories, they turn to the Liberals.

There are a couple of differences here. The first is that the NDP is no longer a Western party in any meaningful sense; its base of support has shifted entirely, although it remains the only real alternative in most of the West. The second is that the NDP is constituted on an ideological basis, which the Mulroney PCs never had. There are no right-wing NDP MPs who have no real business being in the party; the NDP has always been a social-democratic party, whether its support come from the West or the East. Violent internal spats are far less likely as a result.

[Хahar 🤔]

I would imagine that one of the reasons the Greens have always done so poorly in Quebec is that the NDP (before its breakthrough, of course) filled the leftish protest vote niche.