Canadian Election Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

Lolquébec. I think I'll have to go with orange Québec avatar from now on.

And shame on the incompetent Hessian radio. No news item whatsoever about the election that I caught. I literally came to the computer right now not knowing the results - had the NDP breakthrough really happened? Or had the Tories won their majority?
Well, both it turns out. Guess that was the second to last federal election that the Liberal Party of Canada will ever fight, or at least be deemed a newsworthy contender in. Maybe third to last.

[minionofmidas]

Breaking News: Liberal Party will change its name to "Bloc Newfoundland".

j/k

I love the maths of the new Liberal caucus:

12 from the Atlantic Provinces (I love the term "Maritimes", but apparently Maritimes equals Atlantic Provinces minus Newfie. )
11 from Ontario, of which 7 from Toronto
11 from the remainder, of which 7 from Montréal.

And yeah, I thought the Liberals would probably be comparatively stable in Anglo Montréal.

[minionofmidas]

Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

He would have a bit more credibility if he were a member of the NDP, wouldn't he?

He was a member of the NDP.

[minionofmidas]

Canadians pronounce Ottawa weird. Aaw-tow-waah

How else would you pronounce it?

I mean, I pronounced it Ottavah as a kid, as most Germans would, but for the past 17 years I've not dreamt of any other way than the one you describe. It is an anglicization of Outaoua, after all.

[minionofmidas]

Elections Results: Save as a text file. Open using Excel

http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx


re: Yukon:
Largest poll in the 2008 election had 287 voters.

Thanks, looking good!

[minionofmidas]

Why are Labrador and the PEI ridings underpopulated compared to the rest of the country?

Because Canada's laws on the issue are utterly ridiculous. Actually, everywhere but Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia is overrepresented, just to very varying extent. Everywhere but these three is at its fixed minimum of seats. These three are proportional to a theoretical fixed size of parliament, which is quite a bit smaller than its actual size. Of course, if anywhere else were to grow so much that its fixed minimum were an underrepresentation compared to that theoretical size, then that place would get extra seats, but... it's. effing. silly.

[minionofmidas]

It takes color from the w, hence why it's not quite a schwa sound. Much as the o does in names like Howard etc.

[minionofmidas]

The Bloc was official opposition once too, you know.

The Progressives also beat the Tories into third place in 1921. But didn't form the official opposition as they offered supply to the Liberal minority government.

[minionofmidas]

The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.

I dunno, Southern Ontario looks a very dark shade of blue, they'd need practically a clean sweep in Toronto, although Saskatchewan looks vaguely promising

That's because it's a vote lead map. Across much of Saskatchewan, the Liberals have no discernible presence. Much of southern Ontario is three party country. (Although the Tory dominance in the rural/outer suburban parts is too strong to be broken by an end to votesplitting alone.)

[minionofmidas]

Glory Now, Dippers All!

It's sort of funny really. Last time the Dippers increased their vote share by ... like ... 50% and added a smattering of seats. Now their vote just went up a notch or two and they gained ten seats.

Glory Now, Dippers All!

Glory now, Dippers all!

Glory NOW, Dippers all! (Why did I forget that trademark post in 2008? Strange... or maybe the forum software just didn't find it? Anyways, the third one is from the Outremont by-election.)

[minionofmidas]

It takes color from the w, hence why it's not quite a schwa sound. Much as the o does in names like Howard etc.

Nah, the vowel in the first syllable of "Howard" isn't a schwa

Yeah; I wasn't saying that. I was trying my hands at analogy: The middle syllable in Ottawa is to a schwa as the o in Howard - maybe I should have said Howell / Powell -  is to a decent o. Of course, that's also non-English in source (Cymraeg). Unlike Howard, actually.

[minionofmidas]

More like a "real" a than an aw, I'd have said. But that distinction often gets blurred in Americans too, so...

[minionofmidas]

Some random facts... apologies for any errors...

1. Michael Ignatieff is the first Leader of the Opposition to lose his seat since Robert Manion in 1940. He is also the first Leader of the Liberal Party to lose his seat since Mackenzie King in 1945. Let that sink in for a moment.

Okay, I'm letting the fact that Mackenzie King lost his seat in 1945 sink in. Didn't know that.

[minionofmidas]

So potential dippers preferred the Green, for whatever reason. And these northern ridings are all very personal-vote affected. The Tory will either aquire a personal vote or lose to a more united left campaign the next time around. Which might well be NDP. First scenario is more likely though.

[minionofmidas]

Quite so.

[minionofmidas]

The line for Greens is missing. Also, they must have caught a Quebec-heavy others sample.

One set I found for Green seconds was NDP 40.3, Lib 17.4, Con 11.0, Bloc 2.6, other 1.3, none 27.4. However, that set has slightly different figures for everybody else as well. (to be found here, click on the middle image in the first row of three and then it's a few pages down)

Couple of other points: Do we assume that votes can transfer only once? Or that they will transfer further according to the preferences of the people they transferred to?

I'd be prepared to do this, though. Those minor details don't affect all that many constituencies.

However, someone else already has:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Though the way he describes it, I think he made a silly mistake. http://thoughtundermined.com/?p=2011

[minionofmidas]

random factoid: the Tory vote dropped (in most cases marginally or very marginally) in all Ottawa ridings.

Yeah, I noticed that too.

Which of course made Orleans the only reasonable liberal target seat in Canada.

[minionofmidas]

I couldn't sleep after 5am and redid the math, using Earl's figures except for the Green transfers.

First, some factoids: Because the NDP comes out on top of all the redistributions (except of the "other" vote), all actually NDP-won seats are safer under AV. So are all seats the Liberals held versus the Conservatives. There are some seats where the NDP beat the Liberals on Tory transfers.
Because the NDP receives a larger share of Liberal transfers than vice versa, the Tories are better placed to keep their under 50% seats vs the Liberals than the NDP. This is somewhat unfortunate as there's more of these.
You should really have at least separate Québec and RoC figures for this exercise. I had to treat the Bloc 2nd prefs as no 2nd pref in RoC, which contributes to the point just above. In Québec, the Bloc comes out looking even more transfer-toxic than it actually would be. Thankfully, because virtually everywhere has the NDP in first or second, it doesn't majorly screw things up except in Haute-Gaspésie. Which comes out as a Liberal pickup due to just 9% of the Dippers going to the BQ. Roflmao. Probably best to just ignore that result.
And Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar is the closest seat in the country, a Tory hold by 27 votes.

Anyway, here's the full list (ignoring Haute-Gaspésie)

Tories 145, NDP 117, Liberals 44, BQ 1, Greens 1

Seats changing hands:
Conservative to Liberal: 14
Labrador, Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe, Don Valley E, Don Valley W, Etobicoke C, Kitchener - Waterloo, London NC, Mississauga E - Cooksville, Nipissing - Timiskaning, Pickering - Scarborough E, Scarborough C, Willowdale, Winnipeg SC, Yukon
Conservative to NDP: 7 not counting Montmagny (flipping on recount anyways, but Con in the set of figures I used - that document posted by some Canadian conservative whose name I forget; thanks again!)
South Shore - Saint Margaret's, Lotbinière - Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Bramalea - Gore - Malton, Sault Sainte Marie, Elmwood - Transcona, Palliser, Vancouver Island N
Liberal to NDP: 4
Papineau, Westmount - Ville-Marie, Winnipeg N, Vancouver C
BQ to NDP: 3
Ahuntsic, Bas-Richelieu, Richmond - Arthabaska

[minionofmidas]

Much more Conservative and Quebecois subsample, that.

[minionofmidas]

Well, yes, so they are. But you know that.

[minionofmidas]

Some surprises include the NDP winning northern New Brunswick with just one seat (wow!) and doing better in the rest of Quebec compared to Montreal.

Godin's personal vote is ridiculously massive.

[minionofmidas]

Funny facts about MPs names:

There is 4 "Morin" (all NDPers, from Quebec)
3 "Moore" (one NDP, two Conservatives)
3 "Brown" (all Conservatives)
3 "Harris" (one NDP, two Conservatives)
3 "Duncan" (one NDP, one Conservative, one Liberal)

There is 2 "Davies", both NDPers from Vancouver (East and Kingsway).

Aren't there two Harris for the NDP and one for Conservatives?  Also there is a McKay in the Liberals and MacKay in Conservatives.  I think McKay is the Irish spelling and while MacKay is the Scottish if I am not mistaken.  Also two with the surname Weston both from the Conservatives. 

4.86mio google results for "McKay Scotland", 3.95mio for "MacKay Scotland", 7.29mio for "McKay Ireland", 4.75mio for "MacKay Ireland". And if you still remember who the fucker was that told you that age-old nursery myth about the spellings Mc and Mac having anything to do with Irish and Scottish spelling... shoot him. Now.

[minionofmidas]

Not entirely unexpected, but very sad. And this thread's the first I hear of it. RIP.