2020 New York Redistricting

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/NYSBOE/status/1509899743396311059

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good news for Democrats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/NYSBOE/status/1509899743396311059

Glad to hear that Republican hacktivist judge’s ruling was stayed, hopefully New York’s higher courts follow the law and uphold the legislature’s constitutional, fair, and non-partisan congressional, state senate, and state assembly maps.  

Good news for Democrats.

Good news for democracy and good governance

[Schiff for Senate]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

Texas has entered the chat

Illinois and California have entered the chat

Can we get over this notion that California is somehow a partisan gerrymander? Yes it's not the prettiest of maps, but on net it's a very fair map when you consider California is Biden + 30 state. Most of the "funny" lines were to maximize minority influence and represent COIs that may deal with things such as mountains. Yes the Central Valley config is favorable to Dems but largely because of the way Hispanics are distributed. I would argue the OC config is pretty favorable to Rs as it packs Anaheim and Santa Anna and makes the Asian seat pretty competative. CA-41 is also terribly ugly but still leans R.

Also, if they were truly hackish, why would they have given rural inland Cali like 5 R seats? I agree the commission isn;t perfect and there were some hacks on it, but overall Cali is not a Dem gerry.

THANK you. The commission gets hate from both Democrats because the Democrats know without it they could gerrymander away and the GOP over an imagined Democratic bias, but our state's commission really did do a decent job with the maps. And to any Republican who thinks CA pAsSeD a DeMoCrAtIc GeRrYmAnDeR, be happy either way. If you think the commission is bad, I want you to just imagine the 52-0 Democrats would easily be able to draw otherwise. You decide: Would you rather have a fair map that might have some moderate bias for both parties in certain areas, and funky boundaries, or a brutal Democratic gerrymander that gives them all 52 seats? Yeah, that's what I thought. The commission is your biggest friend out here, even if it did hypothetically pass a slightly Democratic-biased map, because the alternative is so much worse for you. The blue posters here are pretty arrogant, ungrateful and entitled - this is the largest state and has the most districts by far, and it's solidly Democratic controlled. You ought to be satisfied with any commission that doesn't pass a 52-0.

[Schiff for Senate]

NY Dems act like “defenders of democracy” yet make this sh***y map. This map NEEDS to be taken down, and it should be unconstitutional

Same goes for the garbage in GA, TN, OH, TX and KS. Once all those maps are struck down, I'd support striking down IL and NY.

[Nyvin]

Personally I'd be pretty okay if we're in the "all the gerrymanders are killed" timeline.

Funny though how the GOP gerrymanders are getting away with it and the Dem ones are getting killed.

That's not really true; North Carolina's was killed, Ohio's is probably still going to be killed, Oregon lived, New Mexico is probably going to live.

Texas has entered the chat

Illinois and California have entered the chat

Can we get over this notion that California is somehow a partisan gerrymander? Yes it's not the prettiest of maps, but on net it's a very fair map when you consider California is Biden + 30 state. Most of the "funny" lines were to maximize minority influence and represent COIs that may deal with things such as mountains. Yes the Central Valley config is favorable to Dems but largely because of the way Hispanics are distributed. I would argue the OC config is pretty favorable to Rs as it packs Anaheim and Santa Anna and makes the Asian seat pretty competative. CA-41 is also terribly ugly but still leans R.

Also, if they were truly hackish, why would they have given rural inland Cali like 5 R seats? I agree the commission isn;t perfect and there were some hacks on it, but overall Cali is not a Dem gerry.

THANK you. The commission gets hate from both Democrats because the Democrats know without it they could gerrymander away and the GOP over an imagined Democratic bias, but our state's commission really did do a decent job with the maps. And to any Republican who thinks CA pAsSeD a DeMoCrAtIc GeRrYmAnDeR, be happy either way. If you think the commission is bad, I want you to just imagine the 52-0 Democrats would easily be able to draw otherwise. You decide: Would you rather have a fair map that might have some moderate bias for both parties in certain areas, and funky boundaries, or a brutal Democratic gerrymander that gives them all 52 seats? Yeah, that's what I thought. The commission is your biggest friend out here, even if it did hypothetically pass a slightly Democratic-biased map, because the alternative is so much worse for you. The blue posters here are pretty arrogant, ungrateful and entitled - this is the largest state and has the most districts by far, and it's solidly Democratic controlled. You ought to be satisfied with any commission that doesn't pass a 52-0.

Plus all they'd have to do to excuse the gerrymander is give the vice versa of Utah's mantra of "maximizing the voices of rural Utah with all 4 congressional districts"

"We feel it's right to maximize the voices of our city dwellers since so many in California live in the cities"

[GALeftist]

Although it'll be appealed either way, keep an eye on the decision from the New York supreme Court. Of the nine active justices on the Fourth Division, five were appointed by Cuomo (D), one was appointed by Paterson (D), and three were appointed by Pataki (R). Unless all three Pataki appointees are on the panel, Democrats should really hope to win this case; otherwise, they could be in trouble in the NYCoA, where Cuomo has 6/7 appointees.

[OBD]

NY Dems act like “defenders of democracy” yet make this sh***y map. This map NEEDS to be taken down, and it should be unconstitutional

What do you mean? We need this map TO defend democracy!

[lfromnj]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

Basically I thought this was a possible goal of the FL GOP to get them to vote for the house maps but then it turns out Florida Democrats are just retarded and refused to support even the senate maps.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

Basically I thought this was a possible goal of the FL GOP to get them to vote for the house maps but then it turns out Florida Democrats are just retarded and refused to support even the senate maps.

No it's just the state house dems that are stupid right?

[lfromnj]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

Basically I thought this was a possible goal of the FL GOP to get them to vote for the house maps but then it turns out Florida Democrats are just retarded and refused to support even the senate maps.

No it's just the state house dems that are stupid right?

Yeah its just them that are doing that. Actual insanity .

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

Basically I thought this was a possible goal of the FL GOP to get them to vote for the house maps but then it turns out Florida Democrats are just retarded and refused to support even the senate maps.

No it's just the state house dems that are stupid right?

Yeah its just them that are doing that. Actual insanity .

FL Dems gonna FL Dems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Although it'll be appealed either way, keep an eye on the decision from the New York supreme Court. Of the nine active justices on the Fourth Division, five were appointed by Cuomo (D), one was appointed by Paterson (D), and three were appointed by Pataki (R). Unless all three Pataki appointees are on the panel, Democrats should really hope to win this case; otherwise, they could be in trouble in the NYCoA, where Cuomo has 6/7 appointees.

Why on Earth would the Democrats be in trouble with the NYCoA and it's all D makeup?

[GALeftist]

Although it'll be appealed either way, keep an eye on the decision from the New York supreme Court. Of the nine active justices on the Fourth Division, five were appointed by Cuomo (D), one was appointed by Paterson (D), and three were appointed by Pataki (R). Unless all three Pataki appointees are on the panel, Democrats should really hope to win this case; otherwise, they could be in trouble in the NYCoA, where Cuomo has 6/7 appointees.

Why on Earth would the Democrats be in trouble with the NYCoA and it's all D makeup?

I don't think they are, to be clear, but there has been some speculation (probably wishful thinking) from Republicans regarding the CoA since 4/7 judges required confirmation from an R Senate and 6/7 were Cuomo appointed. We should see whether there's any truth to that with this appeal.

[Torie]

Some judges even though of partisan provenance actually are influenced by the laws and facts of a case, even when it goes against their team. Where the facts or case is very lopsided, that influence increases.

[Babeuf]

Although it'll be appealed either way, keep an eye on the decision from the New York supreme Court. Of the nine active justices on the Fourth Division, five were appointed by Cuomo (D), one was appointed by Paterson (D), and three were appointed by Pataki (R). Unless all three Pataki appointees are on the panel, Democrats should really hope to win this case; otherwise, they could be in trouble in the NYCoA, where Cuomo has 6/7 appointees.

Why on Earth would the Democrats be in trouble with the NYCoA and it's all D makeup?

Recent cases that have broken on ideological lines have revealed a 4-3 conservative-ish majority. And one of the 7 is an actual Republican (despite the Cuomo appointment). Several of them were appointed when the Republicans / IDC controlled the senate and had to confirm them, so can be expected to be more right leaning. One of the other judges is an anti-vaxxer.

Now some of the conservative ish judges may also be Dem party hacks to a greater or lesser extent so nothing is certain.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1511815852013797383

[GregTheGreat657]

Some judges even though of partisan provenance actually are influenced by the laws and facts of a case, even when it goes against their team. Where the facts or case is very lopsided, that influence increases.

I sure hope so

[cinyc]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1512146038420869137

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1512146038420869137

A Paterson appointment.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1512491648751710210

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1512496781388570634

[lfromnj]

Note the original judge also struck down the senate and assembly maps on procedural grounds. The original lawsuit only went against the senate maps but the judge actually ruled that he didn't believe they were a gerrymander.

However the appellate judge is saying its very likely the procedure was fine and is only letting congressional maps go ahead under the partial stay. So overall this ruling keeps the GOP slightly alive regarding the congressional maps at the forementioned miniscule but the state senate maps are now effectively final.

[cinyc]

Note the original judge also struck down the senate and assembly maps on procedural grounds. The original lawsuit only went against the senate maps but the judge actually ruled that he didn't believe they were a gerrymander.

However the appellate judge is saying its very likely the procedure was fine and is only letting congressional maps go ahead under the partial stay. So overall this ruling keeps the GOP slightly alive regarding the congressional maps at the forementioned miniscule but the state senate maps are now effectively final.

Effectively final, but not final final. As I understand it, the Appellate Judge is just the judge assigned to hear motions from Stueben County Supreme Court. He may or may not even be on the 5? judge panel assigned to hear the merits of the case.

The panel could come to a different conclusion on the Senate and Assembly maps, but it’s probably not likely. The procedural argument was always the weaker of the two.

It’s too bad that the appellate judge isn’t enabling the lower court judge to hire a special master to tentatively redraw the State Senate and Assembly maps. That might have put more pressure on the Dem-majority legislature to settle by passing a new map. They care about their own fate much more than the fate of the Congressional delegation, after all.

The game theory here is interesting. I don’t think I’ve thought it fully through. I guess it’s possible that the lower court proposed draft Congressional map could be released before the case even gets to the NYS Court of Appeals, creating a battle of the maps there, where the 2 most likely outcomes are known.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This seems like a short term victory for Dems but long term is still an open question. This feels a bit Ohio-esq though the court is less imvolved