Australia 2022 Election

[GoTfan]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Mate, the reality is that virtually no one is voting on lockdowns because we're not insane.

The only two parties explicitly anti-lockdown are Cliver Palmer's New Vanity Project and the Liberal Democrats. They are both tiny fringe parties polling less than the Greens.

[Benjamin Frank]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Mate, the reality is that virtually no one is voting on lockdowns because we're not insane.

The only two parties explicitly anti-lockdown are Cliver Palmer's New Vanity Project and the Liberal Democrats. They are both tiny fringe parties polling less than the Greens.

The name of the party is really 'New Vanity Project.'?

[GoTfan]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Mate, the reality is that virtually no one is voting on lockdowns because we're not insane.

The only two parties explicitly anti-lockdown are Cliver Palmer's New Vanity Project and the Liberal Democrats. They are both tiny fringe parties polling less than the Greens.

The name of the party is really 'New Vanity Project.'?

No, it's just how I refer to it because that's all it is. I do have another name for it but there are people under 18 on here.

[CumbrianLefty]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Why do you blame Labor for this when it was very much a cross party thing?

[morgieb]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Why do you blame Labor for this when it was very much a cross party thing?

I do think there's a difference between how Andrews handled COVID, and how Berejiklian did (to say nothing of Scotty). While Gladys was no let it ripper (despite what Drip Twitter insists), she did try to do a more conservative approach than most of the Labor Premiers.

Weighted against that though is that Gutwein and Marshall were quite hawkish as well (if nowhere near the same level as McGowan).

[tik 🪀✨]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Mate, the reality is that virtually no one is voting on lockdowns because we're not insane.

The only two parties explicitly anti-lockdown are Cliver Palmer's New Vanity Project and the Liberal Democrats. They are both tiny fringe parties polling less than the Greens.

You might even go so far as to say that there is a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

TBH, Australia isn't alone in being what it was being subjected to.  As they used to say during wartime, it was "for the duration".

And if you want to know what leads people to be voluntarily docile, it's because they're left with the unflattering impression that this kind of "standing up for human rights" is, in practice, kinfolk to something like Christian conservative or men's rights types claiming to "stand up for human rights".

Yes, the media poisoning the well by associating all protestors with fringe lunatics was disappointing. Unfortunately we also do not have a strong tradition of independent media, so this is the impression many got. If all anti-lockdown people are kooks, I can safely ignore them. I will also push down my own feelings because I don't want to suffer similar social consequences.

As for the "for the duration" comment, we enjoyed some of the most asinine, pointlessly cruel restrictions in the world. We were also late in common sense measures (encouraging the use of masks, effective contact tracing early on) and stuck with measures that had no measurable impact seemingly out of spite/political weakness (curfews, restrictions on time spent outdoors, etc). At the federal level, we had to apply for special permission to even leave. It was insane. The fact that the general population seem to think this was all for the best is very worrying for what the political class now knows they can get away with in the name of public health. This theme is already underway. The Liberals are saying the mental health impacts of harassment on social media need to be addressed. You can be sure these will be laws setup to be used as a shield to prosecute anyone too influential who wants to express dissent towards the wrong politicians and policies.

Why do you blame Labor for this when it was very much a cross party thing?

I am speaking mostly of my own experience, as a Melbournian. In any case, it was the state Labor governments that were the most heavy-handed. Even Albo's policies seemed to be "we need to do what the Liberals are doing but even more intense." The biggest failures of the Liberals to me were the vaccine rollout, handing out money to businesses and not workers, and locking down travel for the entire country for everything but emergencies. And of course, neither major party is interested in doing anything meaningful to tackle one of the most frustrating impacts: the housing market.

I'm not gonna lie, in late 2020 after our first lockdown I was pretty smug and thought we were doing it right even if I disagreed strongly with some of the stricter restrictions we had. As restrictions began rolling in and out again and I sat waiting for a second dose until October, well..

[adma]

As for the "for the duration" comment, we enjoyed some of the most asinine, pointlessly cruel restrictions in the world.

Believe me, they weren't *that* appreciatively different from what you found elsewhere (except, perhaps, in Trumpy jurisdictions).  It's just that when it's in your own backyard, it feels "immediate".

[TheTide]

Ipsos with crosstabs -

[Pulaski]

Ipsos with crosstabs -

55-45 Labor, excluding undecideds. No real change from last month.

Newspoll also has Labor 53-47; no change from the start of the campaign. Obviously Albanese's poor start had no lasting effect.

[tik 🪀✨]

I'm not planning to beat this horse anymore. It is my realisation that most Australians are either sickos or servile so I doubt the restrictions themselves will impact federal results in May. Covid policy overall is of course much broader and still affects us all in various ways, however the major parties differ little in regards to those unfortunately.

[DL]

Can’t we PLEASE use this thread to discuss the upcoming Australian election and what the polls are saying and how the campaign is going. This argument about Covid restrictions is totally off topic and is also really really BORING!

[Хahar 🤔]

Next time you want to call me a sicko, or servile, or that I thought anything about the past few years was neat, I really encourage you to come and say it to my face, in this room. I promise you that you won't walk out like you walked in.

I don't think that implied threats of violence are appropriate for this board. They also do an awfully poor job of convincing anyone to agree with you.

[Virginiá]

Please take COVID restriction discussions somewhere else and keep discussion in this thread germane to the election.

[AtorBoltox]

I know if there's one thing us Aussies love it's Yanks lecturing us about how to do things

[tik 🪀✨]

For what it's worth I was trying to tie my posts back to the election 🙃

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

[Pulaski]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

Higher than the Coalition definitely, 50-60%.

The odds of a hung parliament are shortening, though. Labor's very likely to pick up a handful of seats in WA (Swan & Pearce, maybe Hasluck), SA (Boothby) and Victoria (Chisholm, Casey, possibly Higgins, Flinders & La Trobe), but the Coalition are optimistic about holding onto marginals in Tasmania (Bass & Braddon) and possibly even making gains in NSW (Macquarie, Dobell, Gilmore & Hunter) and Queensland (Lilley, Blair & Moreton - though Labor also have targets in Longman, Dickson & Brisbane).

So overall there may only be a small net shift of seats to Labor, and this election is definitely seeing the rise of small-l liberal Independents in formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats. I know the Libs are particularly worried about polling in North Sydney, Wentworth and Goldstein, and Frydenberg is facing a challenge in Kooyong - if he lost the Libs would be out in opposition without an obvious leader to take them forward.

If there is a hung parliament, it obviously gets tricky to predict who forms government, but my and most people's hunch would be Labor. Of the current crossbench, Wilkie (Ind) and Bandt (Green) have previously sided with them, and most of these "teal" Independents are united around two big policy areas: climate change and a federal ICAC - something that Labor is much likelier to offer more on.

[Pulaski]

Just as a final gander at this: if you think kids dying of covid is fine you're a sociopath. It's my hope that whoever forms government after the election immediately begins deporting idiots who don't want to be here back to whatever hole they crawled out of.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

Higher than the Coalition definitely, 50-60%.

The odds of a hung parliament are shortening, though. Labor's very likely to pick up a handful of seats in WA (Swan & Pearce), SA (Boothby) and Victoria (Chisholm, Casey, possibly Higgins & La Trobe), but the Coalition are optimistic about holding on to marginals in Tasmania (Bass & Braddon) and possibly even making gains in NSW (Macquarie, Dobell, Gilmore & Hunter) and Queensland (Lilley, Blair & Moreton - though Labor also have targets in Longman & Dickson).

So overall there may only be a small net shift of seats to Labor, and this election is definitely seeing the rise of small-l liberal Independents in formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats. I know the Libs are particularly worried about polling in North Sydney, Wentworth and Goldstein, and Frydenberg is facing a challenge in Kooyong - if he lost the Libs would be out in opposition without an obvious leader to take them forward.

If there is a hung parliament, it obviously gets tricky to predict who forms government, but my and most people's hunch would be Labor. Of the current crossbench, Wilkie (Ind) and Bandt (Green) have previously sided with them, and most of these "teal" Independents are united around two big policy areas: climate change and a federal ICAC - something that Labor is much likelier to offer more on.

It surprises me a bit to hear that Hunter would be a realistic Coalition target. But turns out Labor only held on by a 5% margin last time. And it's open, too, which probably hurts Labor as well in this election (assuming Fitzgibbon had a personal vote).
Thanks for the run-down.

[Pulaski]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

Higher than the Coalition definitely, 50-60%.

The odds of a hung parliament are shortening, though. Labor's very likely to pick up a handful of seats in WA (Swan & Pearce), SA (Boothby) and Victoria (Chisholm, Casey, possibly Higgins & La Trobe), but the Coalition are optimistic about holding on to marginals in Tasmania (Bass & Braddon) and possibly even making gains in NSW (Macquarie, Dobell, Gilmore & Hunter) and Queensland (Lilley, Blair & Moreton - though Labor also have targets in Longman & Dickson).

So overall there may only be a small net shift of seats to Labor, and this election is definitely seeing the rise of small-l liberal Independents in formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats. I know the Libs are particularly worried about polling in North Sydney, Wentworth and Goldstein, and Frydenberg is facing a challenge in Kooyong - if he lost the Libs would be out in opposition without an obvious leader to take them forward.

If there is a hung parliament, it obviously gets tricky to predict who forms government, but my and most people's hunch would be Labor. Of the current crossbench, Wilkie (Ind) and Bandt (Green) have previously sided with them, and most of these "teal" Independents are united around two big policy areas: climate change and a federal ICAC - something that Labor is much likelier to offer more on.

It surprises me a bit to hear that Hunter would be a realistic Coalition target. But turns out Labor only held on by a 5% margin last time. And it's open, too, which probably hurts Labor as well in this election (assuming Fitzgibbon had a personal vote).
Thanks for the run-down.

That whole area of NSW is undergoing the same shift that previous Democrat/Labour heartlands in mining communities in the US (and to a lesser extent the UK) have already undergone. The social conservatism that's always existed in those places is combining with a declining union movement and a resistance to action on climate change that threatens their livelihoods. In the UK of course, immigration is also a massive issue in these areas; even more so than their equivalent places like West Virginia in the US, where coal mining still dominates.

The Coalition just promises "jobs jobs jobs" with no eye towards the next 15-20 years, when, regardless of what Australia does on climate change, the market will have started to move on anyway. Labor's caught between trying to appeal to inner-city and suburban voters like me who demand action on climate change and trying to keep a hold of enough seats in these areas to form government. They end up pleasing neither. Fitzgibbon definitely had a big personal vote which is largely why the party tolerated his carping at the sidelines for so long. I wouldn't be surprised at all if, even if Labor wins a majority, Hunter falls.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

Higher than the Coalition definitely, 50-60%.

The odds of a hung parliament are shortening, though. Labor's very likely to pick up a handful of seats in WA (Swan & Pearce), SA (Boothby) and Victoria (Chisholm, Casey, possibly Higgins & La Trobe), but the Coalition are optimistic about holding on to marginals in Tasmania (Bass & Braddon) and possibly even making gains in NSW (Macquarie, Dobell, Gilmore & Hunter) and Queensland (Lilley, Blair & Moreton - though Labor also have targets in Longman & Dickson).

So overall there may only be a small net shift of seats to Labor, and this election is definitely seeing the rise of small-l liberal Independents in formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats. I know the Libs are particularly worried about polling in North Sydney, Wentworth and Goldstein, and Frydenberg is facing a challenge in Kooyong - if he lost the Libs would be out in opposition without an obvious leader to take them forward.

If there is a hung parliament, it obviously gets tricky to predict who forms government, but my and most people's hunch would be Labor. Of the current crossbench, Wilkie (Ind) and Bandt (Green) have previously sided with them, and most of these "teal" Independents are united around two big policy areas: climate change and a federal ICAC - something that Labor is much likelier to offer more on.

It surprises me a bit to hear that Hunter would be a realistic Coalition target. But turns out Labor only held on by a 5% margin last time. And it's open, too, which probably hurts Labor as well in this election (assuming Fitzgibbon had a personal vote).
Thanks for the run-down.

That whole area of NSW is undergoing the same shift that previous Democrat/Labour heartlands in mining communities in the US (and to a lesser extent the UK) have already undergone. The social conservatism that's always existed in those places is combining with a declining union movement and a resistance to action on climate change that threatens their livelihoods. In the UK of course, immigration is also a massive issue in these areas; even more so than their equivalent places like West Virginia in the US, where coal mining still dominates.

The Coalition just promises "jobs jobs jobs" with no eye towards the next 15-20 years, when, regardless of what Australia does on climate change, the market will have started to move on anyway. Labor's caught between trying to appeal to inner-city and suburban voters like me who demand action on climate change and trying to keep a hold of enough seats in these areas to form government. They end up pleasing neither. Fitzgibbon definitely had a big personal vote which is largely why the party tolerated his carping at the sidelines for so long. I wouldn't be surprised at all if, even if Labor wins a majority, Hunter falls.

Do you think Dan Repacholi is a good candidate?

[Pulaski]

Do you think Dan Repacholi is a good candidate?

Do I think he's one of the better candidates Labor could have chosen to try and keep the seat? Yes; he ticks nearly all the boxes you'd want from your candidate there. He would have some name recognition, he's got strong connections to coal, he's big, beardy, macho and the opposite of everything that low-info voters picture when they think of the "woke left."

Do I like him or want him to win? Absolutely not. Like I said, he's wild about coal and doing absolutely nothing to transition away from fossil fuels. He's got strong ties to the CFMEU; I'm a big supporter of unions but the CFMEU in particular have a reputation for some sh**tty behaviour, and it's not entirely concocted by News Corp. He's also said racist things and made some pretty gross and lewd comments about women in the past. Chuck him.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Back on topic ScoMo was filmed texting throughout the dawn service (and no surprise he went to a dawn service in a marginal Labor seat).

[GoTfan]

Back on topic ScoMo was filmed texting throughout the dawn service (and no surprise he went to a dawn service in a marginal Labor seat).

It'll be interesting to see how the Solomon's Stuff-Up affects things. Probably not much, but it does lay a bit of a smack on the Coalition's national security credentials, and China ear drum was one of their trump cards.

[S019]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/solomon-islands-tells-japan-it-will-not-allow-china-military-bases-2022-04-26/

Reports that the Solomon Islands have told Japan that they will not allow a Chinese military base, I wonder if this takes some of the pressure off of the government that they've faced recently over the situation.