Australia 2022 Election

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Found it weird there's no thread on this quickly upcoming election, Labour has a large polling lead but they also did last time so nobody is going into election day not sweating. Main topics will probably be a referendum on covid, the greens seems to have vanished and unvaxxed billionare Clive Palmer has merged his moderate hero party with anti-vaxx sentiment to waste another small fortune.


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/20/albanese-stakes-out-coalition-seats-in-queensland-as-morrison-zeroes-in-on-nsw-ahead-of-election

[JimJamUK]

There looks to be a little more diversity in the 2PP polling than last time, but still not enough to make accusations of herding look unfounded...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

There looks to be a little more diversity in the 2PP polling than last time, but still not enough to make accusations of herding look unfounded...

I'm hopeful pollsters have learned from the last disaster to avoid that mistake but i'm still concenrds about the polls. Broadly covid lockdown measures are popular and tend to be more popular on the left, but have massively impacted certain key parts of the labour base foreign immigrants with substantial ties to their country of origin as well events workers that traditionaly tend to lean labour. These groups also tend to be harder for pollsters to access which could probably create a suprise for the results.

[Coldstream]

Morrison still leads the Preferred PM polls, at least until the most recent one, I won’t start to feel confident until Albanese has a sustained lead in them.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Morrison still leads the Preferred PM polls, at least until the most recent one, I won’t start to feel confident until Albanese has a sustained lead in them.

Yeah especially since the unpopularity is mostly driven by the current omicron wave which seems to already be subsiding, as well as messaging on covid leaving labour vulnerable to a culture war attacks.

[icc]

Not sure on what basis you say ‘the Greens seem to have vanished’. They’re basically polling the same as they got last time, if anything maybe very slightly up.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Not sure on what basis you say ‘the Greens seem to have vanished’. They’re basically polling the same as they got last time, if anything maybe very slightly up.

Well in terms of public profile, they don't seem to be running on anything.

[S019]

Felt like I should post this here: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/alarm-bells-for-coalition-as-scott-morrisons-newspoll-ratings-drop/news-story/acbb2e070b2a13d5b79c1eab15e1ff40

A 56-44 Labor lead in the latest Newspoll is just the latest in a series of bad polls for the Coalition over the last several weeks, there's still four months left, but the Coalition is not in a good spot, at the moment.

[Pericles]

Morrison still leads the Preferred PM polls, at least until the most recent one, I won’t start to feel confident until Albanese has a sustained lead in them.

Yeah especially since the unpopularity is mostly driven by the current omicron wave which seems to already be subsiding, as well as messaging on covid leaving labour vulnerable to a culture war attacks.

They have been behind since the Delta lockdowns mid last year, and Morrison has been hit on many different issues. So it's possible that this is a mood for change election after 9 years of a government that is divided and without much to show for itself, especially because Labor are not providing voters a reason to hesitate like last time.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Morrison still leads the Preferred PM polls, at least until the most recent one, I won’t start to feel confident until Albanese has a sustained lead in them.

Yeah especially since the unpopularity is mostly driven by the current omicron wave which seems to already be subsiding, as well as messaging on covid leaving labour vulnerable to a culture war attacks.

They have been behind since the Delta lockdowns mid last year, and Morrison has been hit on many different issues. So it's possible that this is a mood for change election after 9 years of a government that is divided and without much to show for itself, especially because Labor are not providing voters a reason to hesitate like last time.

Also very true, 3 elections is a long-time for the same party to hold power and voters may simply be tiring of the coalition brand.

It all depends on the campaign that Labour runs, but I do think they should be wary of overermphaising covid-19 and the current omicron wave which could cause them to loose support from an unexpected qurater.

[mileslunn]

I suspect things tighten although one thing I noticed is Labor leads in first preference whereas last time I believe L/NP lead in most first preferences but fell behind in 2nd preference due to Greens mostly putting Labor as second choice.  I think things will tighten, but Labor seems somewhat better positioned as Shorten had higher negatives than Albanese.  Also looks like Albanese is avoiding class warfare which hurt them (He promised to keep coalition tax cuts and no tax hikes, not even on top earners) but not sure what his stance is on climate change.  I believe Shorten got hurt as many in traditional blue collar industries felt his policies on environment would harm there jobs.

[Estrella]

It's still unclear on what day will the election take place, but for now, the most likely options are May 7, May 14 or May 21.

As for the polls, ALP is ahead 54-46 or so, as said earlier in the thread. Albo is still behind Morrison in preferred PM polls, but he's closing in fast and his personal disapproval ratings are lower than Scomo's.

Assuming uniform swing and a smaller ALP victory than what the polls are showing right now, say 52-48, the election result would be 75 ALP, 68 Coalition - still one seat short of a majority. Coalition would lose Bass, Chisholm, Boothby, Swan, Braddon, Reid and Longman to ALP, plus possibly Wentworth to indie Kerryn Phelps, if she chooses to stand again. If ALP really got to 54-46, dominoes would start to fall: Coalition would also lose Higgins, Leichhardt, Robertson, La Trobe, Dickson, Casey, Deakin, Brisbane, Lindsay and Pearce for a result of 85 ALP, 58 Coalition. It seems that the map is pretty ALP-unfriendly - Rudd in 2007 and Abbott in 2013 both won a similar number or more seats on lower 2PP - but if marginal seats contain more swing voters than safe ones, that might not be a problem.

[Cassius]

Hilarious how just a year ago all the talk was of Albo getting poleaxed tout suite by Labor. Never change Australian politicians.

[Estrella]

For once, it's not Labor being a factional dumpster fire:

NSW Liberals reject another push to endorse sitting MPs as federal intervention considered

The fate of three key federal government MPs remains in the balance after the New South Wales Liberal party again rejected their endorsements, while the federal executive has given the fractious state division a 10-day deadline to “rectify” its problems or face intervention.

On Thursday the state executive of the NSW Liberal party again rejected a proposal to endorse the preselection of federal ministers Sussan Ley and Alex Hawke, as well as key moderate Trent Zimmerman, amid an ongoing factional war within the party.

After reports on Wednesday that the NSW division may soon become in breach of its constitution, the NSW division agreed on Thursday to request a limited federal intervention that would see the existing state executive reappointed. But when the federal executive, led by the prime minister, Scott Morrison, met on Thursday night, it instead issued a warning to the state executive to endorse the three MPs by 28 February or face a wider takeover.

Liberals have been zooming to the right over the past few years (or decades?), especially in NSW where right-wing factions copied ALP's tried and tested tactic of branch stacking and recruited members en masse from Pentecostal churches. That probably explains in particular Trent Zimmerman's trouble: he's openly gay and recently helped tank Scomo's signature religious freedom bill by supporting a Labor amendment to protect the rights of trans students.

[GoTfan]

Word on the street was that Morrison was planning to call it last year, but then the government got hit with scandal after scandal. Problem is, he's still getting smacked with scandals almost every day.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think Morrison might eek out a minority, running solely against Morrison didn't work out too well for labour last time. IDK why they expect it work better this time ?

[Pericles]

I think Morrison might eek out a minority, running solely against Morrison didn't work out too well for labour last time. IDK why they expect it work better this time ?

That's pretty much the opposite of the conventional wisdom that Labor made themselves far too big of a target with all their fancy policies instead of just opposing.

[GoTfan]

I think Morrison might eek out a minority, running solely against Morrison didn't work out too well for labour last time. IDK why they expect it work better this time ?

That's pretty much the opposite of the conventional wisdom that Labor made themselves far too big of a target with all their fancy policies instead of just opposing.

Adding onto this, Morrison was able to win the last election because he was able to make it about his character vs Bill Shorten's character. He won that round.

This time, he's up against Anthony Albanese, a man who grew up in public housing as the son of a single mother, who is on record as being critical of both Rudd and Gillard for their conduct in that Labor chaos period.

Morrison can't win this character fight. Not after the last two years. His two primary hopes are that beating the China drum and courting the religious right will be the ticket.

[Logical]

Just scomo goofing around and potentially blinding himself

[Lurker]

How hardline are Labor on Covid restrictions compared to the government's policies?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How hardline are Labor on Covid restrictions compared to the government's policies?

As an outside observer my impression is that Labour has bee trying to pin the blame on Scomo for the omicron surge while avoiding saying what they've had done differently beyond more ART's or "competence" avoiding the hard question of whether or not they'd have reopened the border to quarantine free-travel or not.

As someone very hostile the LNP/National Coallation this is strikes me as a very self-serving political strategy that would probably discourage me from voting labour if I was australian.

[Estrella]

For once, it's not Labor being a factional dumpster fire:

NSW Liberals reject another push to endorse sitting MPs as federal intervention considered

Some more wonderful PR to start off Liberals' election campaign:

[GoTfan]

How hardline are Labor on Covid restrictions compared to the government's policies?

As an outside observer my impression is that Labour has bee trying to pin the blame on Scomo for the omicron surge while avoiding saying what they've had done differently beyond more ART's or "competence" avoiding the hard question of whether or not they'd have reopened the border to quarantine free-travel or not.

As someone very hostile the LNP/National Coallation this is strikes me as a very self-serving political strategy that would probably discourage me from voting labour if I was australian.

Yeah, there's a reason why Labour's avoiding syaing what they'd do. Last time they did, they got pilloried in the media and lost the election.

[S019]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-labor-still-ahead-but-the-gap-is-narrowing/news-story/07b6099fb36eddb9f119cc0c2889081d

Labor has a 55-45 lead in the latest Newspoll, which is the same lead as they had a few weeks ago. Scott Morrison leads the preferred PM by 2 points, which is not a particularly great spot for a government seeking re-election (being underwater on this question is a good sign that the government is absolutely toast). Lastly, for reference, Labor was leading 53-47 at this point in 2019, there is still time for the Coalition to close the gap with the election (likely) in May, but they are probably somewhat behind, at least, at the moment.

[Pulaski]

Albo seems pretty confident the election will be called for May 14.

This is the second-last Saturday Morrison can call the election for; the government is trying to give itself enough time to turn its polling around. Hoping that recent "announcements" (without any further info) on national security and a budget later this month can turn things around for them.

Labor have plenty of seats to target in this election but a lot of vulnerable seats in NSW in particular. I'm definitely not confident just yet.