Australia 2022 Election

[Pulaski]

Albo seems pretty confident the election will be called for May 14.

This is the second-last Saturday Morrison can call the election for; the government is trying to give itself enough time to turn its polling around. Hoping that recent "announcements" (without any further info) on national security and a budget later this month can turn things around for them.

Labor have plenty of seats to target in this election but a lot of vulnerable seats in NSW in particular. I'm definitely not confident just yet.

[Pulaski]

Albanese has given a widely-panned interview in which he's claimed he's not "woke" and signalled his intent to move further away from the Left.

A bit rich given he's been a machine man of the Left his entire political career and gave an interview just 3 years ago discussing Australia's "cultural cringe."

All things to all people indeed.

Despite this, I actually have some sympathy for some of his answers to the "quick-fire" round of the interview, which he seems to be getting the most stick for - especially his answer to the question "Captain Cook: hero or zero?" If ever there was an example of the futility of "quick-fire" questions, this is it- it's a COMPLICATED subject!

[Pulaski]

Albanese has given a widely-panned interview in which he's claimed he's not "woke" and signalled his intent to move further away from the Left.

A bit rich given he's been a machine man of the Left his entire political career and gave an interview just 3 years ago discussing Australia's "cultural cringe."

All things to all people indeed.

Despite this, I actually have some sympathy for some of his answers to the "quick-fire" round of the interview, which he seems to be getting the most stick for - especially his answer to the question "Captain Cook: hero or zero?" If ever there was an example of the futility of "quick-fire" questions, this is it- it's a COMPLICATED subject!

LOL i couldn't imagine a bigger LOSER than someone who was too dumb to learn how to swim before going on a boat. Not to mention the sexual assault, racism, murder, and intentionally spreading syphillis.

https://youtu.be/g7FjCEMfAZc

I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said. Cook was a coloniser, a racist and met a justified end in Hawaii.

I also think, given his enormous historical legacy, that boiling him down to the word “zero” is unjustified. Like any historical figure, he is a complicated person we deserve to learn about, and the question Albanese was asked was deliberately glib and provocative.

[Pulaski]

Just finished watching Albanese's budget reply speech - thought it was pretty good. Winced at the "renewal not revolution" line but suspect it will resonate with Australia's small-c conservative political culture. Found it ironic he now points to the Hawke/Keating economic reforms as a cornerstone Labor achievement given he actively campaigned against them within Labor at the time. But thought his commitments on aged care and childcare were strong and hopefully will flesh them out more during the campaign.

[Pulaski]

Gun to my head, I still say Morrison wins.

I doubt Labor would gain Cook even in a landslide.

I grew up in Cook, can confirm. It’s Liberal heartland.

[Pulaski]

I'm actually getting more confident of a Labor victory with each passing day. The coalition doesn't seem to be getting a bounce from the budget, which was one of their last big plays. Negative publicity about Morrison is trickling out every day, which largely seems to be from his own side - suggesting even the Coalition has had enough of him. Albanese is basically neck and neck with Morrison as preferred PM, which is a very bad omen - the rule of modern Australian politics is that the PM leads the Opposition Leader in those, even when heading for a change in government. I certainly wouldn't mind a hung parliament either; even outside the Greens MP, most of the crossbenchers are some of the best MPs in parliament, and 2010-2013 suggests a hung parliament might actually get a hell of a lot done.

[Pulaski]

Like I said, the only story anyone's talking about Albo's flub.

Newscorp's already decided who the winner will be.

I don't know if you're old enough to remember the 2007 election in detail, but during that campaign Rudd was similarly blasted by conservatives for being unable to correctly list all the different income tax brackets. Granted, Rudd had more personal popularity than Albanese, but my hunch is that this will make little difference in the minds of most voters come election day.

On a far less interesting note, I bumped into Tony Burke today while out and about in Newtown and wished him good luck.

[Pulaski]

Getting ahead a bit, but who are the likely leaders of the party that loses?

Josh Frydenberg, current Treasurer, is widely considered the prohibitive favourite for the Liberal leadership should they lose. Only other potential candidate would be defence minister Peter Dutton, but I think the Liberals are too smart to try to win back government with literally Voldemort at the helm.

On the Labor side it's a little bit trickier. Tanya Plibersek (my MP) was considered more of a favourite than Albanese last time, but chose not to run citing her young family. Strange that the same young family wasn't a barrier to being deputy leader for 6 years, or a minister before that. Other likely contenders would be their treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers, or possibly their deputy leader Richard Marles (please God no).

[Pulaski]

If Labor loses it's unlikely they'll try another NSW Left acolyte. Jim Chalmers is probably the best bet, especially if Labor loses because they fail to make the needed gains in Queensland. Marles is possible but unlikely as there's still a lot of rumours swirling around about the Victorian Right. If Labor had balls they'd try Penny Wong given how well she polls but SA Left Senator are three big disqualifiers for a potential leader.

On the Labor side it's a little bit trickier. Tanya Plibersek (my MP) was considered more of a favourite than Albanese last time, but chose not to run citing her young family. Strange that the same young family wasn't a barrier to being deputy leader for 6 years, or a minister before that.

Who on earth thought Plibersek was the favourite in 2019? The Guardian? She didn't run because she wasn't as acceptable to the Right and would've drawn a contested ballot with Chris Bowen, something both factions desperately wanted to avoid with the Rudd rules.
Albanese was already positioning himself for the leadership and had been since the July '18 by-elections.

Plibersek was definitely considered more likely than Albanese initially. Albanese was at first considered a little old to be leader. Both Shorten and Gillard were prepared to back Plibersek. However, you’re probably right that her real reasons for not contesting were more to do with factional difficulties.

I’m a big Penny Wong fan, but having observed her as Senate leader she’s actually not a brilliant parliamentary performer in my view; something else that limits her chances of ever becoming leader. She’ll make a fantastic Foreign Minister though.

[Pulaski]

Another one to watch would be Kristina Keneally, who’s moving to the lower house at this election. Despite leading NSW Labor to a crushing defeat as premier a decade ago, and forever having the stink of the NSW right around her, she’s obviously held in high esteem by the party itself, for reasons I can’t fathom.

[Pulaski]

Labor are leading by 14 points in the polls over the LNP.

Not even a Hillary Clinton style choke will stop Albo from losing this election.

Labor has got it in the bag.

Women just don't like Scomo.

Why such a big swing, Meclazine?

Among women? The Liberals have had many, many PR disasters relating to their treatment of women both in and out of parliament for a number of years now; from sexual assault allegations to inappropriate relationships with staffers and everything in between. Morrison's handling of these issues has been woeful, culminating in a disastrous photo-op with 2021 Australian of the Year and advocate for victims of sexual assault Grace Tame. The guy is absolutely tone-deaf on these issues.

[Pulaski]

Is there any party that considers the horrifying, totalitarian Australian lockdowns a grave mistake and actually promises no more lockdowns? This would be my issue 1, 2, 3 etc. in Australia.

No, because a large majority of citizens agreed with them, complied with them, and got vaccinated as soon as possible. You know, like you would expect from a country that hasn't become deranged to the point of self-destruction.

[Pulaski]

I hate when this forum "Americanizes"--you know, overstating the "totalitarianism" of lockdowns.

If you think opposition to totalitarian lockdowns is a purely American phenonenon, it might be you who has an America-centric worldview.

If you genuinely think Australia's lockdowns were totalitarian you're listening to too much Ted Cruz and not enough of us who actually went through them.

[Pulaski]

Is there any party that considers the horrifying, totalitarian Australian lockdowns a grave mistake and actually promises no more lockdowns? This would be my issue 1, 2, 3 etc. in Australia.

No, because a large majority of citizens agreed with them, complied with them, and got vaccinated as soon as possible. You know, like you would expect from a country that hasn't become deranged to the point of self-destruction.

All this does is confirm my belief that Australians are dumb and easily influenced.

Brexit going well for you?

[Pulaski]

I hate when this forum "Americanizes"--you know, overstating the "totalitarianism" of lockdowns.

If you think opposition to totalitarian lockdowns is a purely American phenonenon, it might be you who has an America-centric worldview.

If you genuinely think Australia's lockdowns were totalitarian you're listening to too much Ted Cruz and not enough of us who actually went through them.

Speak for yourself.  Being confined to a 5 kilometre radius for 3 months at a time, repeatedly, under the threat of thousands of dollars of fines, is not an experience that I care to repeat.

It is not an experience I care to repeat either, but it was one that I felt was necessary at the time (along with many health experts).

[Pulaski]

I hate when this forum "Americanizes"--you know, overstating the "totalitarianism" of lockdowns.

If you think opposition to totalitarian lockdowns is a purely American phenonenon, it might be you who has an America-centric worldview.

If you genuinely think Australia's lockdowns were totalitarian you're listening to too much Ted Cruz and not enough of us who actually went through them.

Speak for yourself.  Being confined to a 5 kilometre radius for 3 months at a time, repeatedly, under the threat of thousands of dollars of fines, is not an experience that I care to repeat.

It is not an experience I care to repeat either, but it was one that I felt was necessary at the time (along with many health experts).

The Issue is not so much the past lockdown but a consistent push by a loud minority to normalize some aspects of the lockdown permanently, minimize how invasive it was to fundamental rights and perhaps some remnants who want to re-adopt a zero covid approach.

Look at how people have been complaning about the scrapping of vaccine pass systems(despite almost all evidence indicating that they were useless at actualy preventing spread outside of encouraging vaccination) and how some people want to make mask wearing a permenant part of life(treating it as no different from another piece of clothing).

Your post is an example of how those outside Australia totally misunderstand its policies. I can tell you definitively that mask wearing is barely required in any normal setting anymore here; hospitals and public transport (and it is not now, nor was it ever, enforced on public transport). Some of you seem to have this picture of Australia as a police state when we have been living fairly normally and lockdown-free for about 6 months now.

[Pulaski]

I hate when this forum "Americanizes"--you know, overstating the "totalitarianism" of lockdowns.

If you think opposition to totalitarian lockdowns is a purely American phenonenon, it might be you who has an America-centric worldview.

If you genuinely think Australia's lockdowns were totalitarian you're listening to too much Ted Cruz and not enough of us who actually went through them.

Speak for yourself.  Being confined to a 5 kilometre radius for 3 months at a time, repeatedly, under the threat of thousands of dollars of fines, is not an experience that I care to repeat.

It is not an experience I care to repeat either, but it was one that I felt was necessary at the time (along with many health experts).

The Issue is not so much the past lockdown but a consistent push by a loud minority to normalize some aspects of the lockdown permanently, minimize how invasive it was to fundamental rights and perhaps some remnants who want to re-adopt a zero covid approach.

Look at how people have been complaning about the scrapping of vaccine pass systems(despite almost all evidence indicating that they were useless at actualy preventing spread outside of encouraging vaccination) and how some people want to make mask wearing a permenant part of life(treating it as no different from another piece of clothing).

Your post is an example of how those outside Australia totally misunderstand its policies. I can tell you definitively that mask wearing is barely required in any normal setting anymore here; hospitals and public transport (and it is not now, nor was it ever, enforced on public transport). Some of you seem to have this picture of Australia as a police state when we have been living fairly normally and lockdown-free for about 6 months now.

I understand quite well what the situation was like in australia and how defacto for much of the population life was pretty normal and is now everywhere pretty normal. My comment is about the long-term political effects and why people are still concerned about them.

Do you live in Singapore or not?

[Pulaski]

I actually used to live and work around the corner from Horizon Church, Scott Morrison's church in Sutherland - and just because it's not Hillsong does not mean it's not dodgy. It's a Pentecostal church whose members often believe in laying of hands to heal the sick - my sister was dragged there by a friend once as a teenager, and she was on crutches as she'd recently dislocated her knee. One pastor there laid hands on her, then told her to drop her crutches and walk normally as she'd been healed. Needless to say it didn't go well.

Far more important than that, the church emphasizes the existence of spiritual gifts - the idea that people are rewarded in this life for their faith, and if they don't receive blessings it's because they're not steadfast enough in their faith. Morrison adamantly believes in this - indeed, if you read Sean Kelly's "The Game" you'll read about how he attributes the birth of his daughters to him finally doing enough to please God. When taken in this context, I definitely think that his comments about disabled children are relevant - he and his church believe those who have disabled children have done something to merit that. Moreover, it explains why Morrison and his government don't give a damn about properly funding the NDIS.

[Pulaski]

And perhaps more importantly lockdowns we’re a state government decision with very little input from the Feds. As such if people were angry at lockdowns we would’ve seen it in recent state elections. Which we haven’t.

TBF the two states that actually experienced proper lockdowns haven’t had state elections yet.

WA didn't lock down as such but it hermetically sealed itself off from the rest of the country in order to avoid it, and McGowan won one of the greatest victories for a State government in modern history off the back of it.

The Victorian government is likely to romp home later this year.

The Coalition in NSW will maybe have a tougher time given we're not due for an election until 2023, but the situation's complicated by the fact that Perrottet has taken over from Berejiklian in that time and we've moved on. Berejiklian had high approvals up until her resignation though.

So overall, lockdowns were approved of and widely complied with, and people living in a country that's set to reach 1 million covid deaths don't really have a leg to stand on if they want to lecture us.

[Pulaski]

Albo has tested positive for COVID and going into isolation for the next week. Not sure how this will affect the election, given the fact that campaigns have become increasingly presidential in the last 30-odd years.

Actually may not be the worst thing given his poor start; kind of forces him to revert back to that small target strategy he’s previously employed. Morrison is not a popular man and a week in which the media is forced to focus on him is bound to generate more publicity.

[Pulaski]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Listen, we both know you were forced to post this by your Stalinist masters. Join the resistance, brother; we’re looking to flee to the land of the free, which imprisons its citizens at a greater rate than any other state in the world.

[Pulaski]

Albo has tested positive for COVID and going into isolation for the next week. Not sure how this will affect the election, given the fact that campaigns have become increasingly presidential in the last 30-odd years.

Hopefully for the better if Labor is smart & uses the next week to highlight the frontbench stars like Chalmers & Wong.

I must be one of the few that’s underwhelmed by Chalmers. He’s a likely future leader but just comes across as very bland and mechanic.

She’s probably some way off it, but if the next leader has to be from the Right, then Clare O’Neil is my pick. She’s currently the shadow minister for aged care and presumably is a big player behind the party’s strategy/policy in this area. Very impressive.

[Pulaski]

Albo has tested positive for COVID and going into isolation for the next week. Not sure how this will affect the election, given the fact that campaigns have become increasingly presidential in the last 30-odd years.

Hopefully for the better if Labor is smart & uses the next week to highlight the frontbench stars like Chalmers & Wong.

I must be one of the few that’s underwhelmed by Chalmers. He’s a likely future leader but just comes across as very bland and mechanic.

She’s probably some way off it, but if the next leader has to be from the Right, then Clare O’Neil is my pick. She’s currently the shadow minister for aged care and presumably is a big player behind the party’s strategy/policy in this area. Very impressive.

She's very good (how can't you be when you're a Fulbright scholar?), if in need of some more time in the political limelight.

If nothing else, Chalmers is an undeniable asset for Labor in Queensland, particularly since he's somehow mastered the art of presenting himself on behalf of Labor as a sensible, well-spoken pragmatist. If anything, as far as campaigning in Queensland is concerned, Labor should be campaigning by treating him as the realist Keating to Albo's idealist Hawke, if only just for those Queenslanders who'll never be able to bring themselves to vote for somebody other than "one of their own" (see: Kevin '07), especially when they honestly hate nothing more than condescending out-of-staters perceived to be telling them what's good for them (which is arguably, if not exactly what lost Shorten's Labor the last election 3 years ago).

Your characterisations of Hawke and Keating are interesting. I doubt I'd class either of them as an idealist, but if I had to I'd be more inclined to place Keating in that category over Hawke, especially as Hawke was famously not really focused on policy.

Your point is interesting though, and I suppose it's not a coincidence that Keating is one of Chalmers' major mentors. I agree he is likely to be an electoral asset due to being from Queensland. Never understood people who are swayed by leaders coming from the same area as them (MPs are fine - you want your local representative to truly be from your community, I can see that).

Then again maybe I'm spoiled since Morrison was my previous MP, Plibersek is my MP now and Albanese is just next door. Maybe I'll pop over to see him in Marrickville while he's housebound.

[Pulaski]

Ipsos with crosstabs -

55-45 Labor, excluding undecideds. No real change from last month.

Newspoll also has Labor 53-47; no change from the start of the campaign. Obviously Albanese's poor start had no lasting effect.

[Pulaski]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

Higher than the Coalition definitely, 50-60%.

The odds of a hung parliament are shortening, though. Labor's very likely to pick up a handful of seats in WA (Swan & Pearce, maybe Hasluck), SA (Boothby) and Victoria (Chisholm, Casey, possibly Higgins, Flinders & La Trobe), but the Coalition are optimistic about holding onto marginals in Tasmania (Bass & Braddon) and possibly even making gains in NSW (Macquarie, Dobell, Gilmore & Hunter) and Queensland (Lilley, Blair & Moreton - though Labor also have targets in Longman, Dickson & Brisbane).

So overall there may only be a small net shift of seats to Labor, and this election is definitely seeing the rise of small-l liberal Independents in formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats. I know the Libs are particularly worried about polling in North Sydney, Wentworth and Goldstein, and Frydenberg is facing a challenge in Kooyong - if he lost the Libs would be out in opposition without an obvious leader to take them forward.

If there is a hung parliament, it obviously gets tricky to predict who forms government, but my and most people's hunch would be Labor. Of the current crossbench, Wilkie (Ind) and Bandt (Green) have previously sided with them, and most of these "teal" Independents are united around two big policy areas: climate change and a federal ICAC - something that Labor is much likelier to offer more on.