Australia 2022 Election

[GoTfan]

Word on the street was that Morrison was planning to call it last year, but then the government got hit with scandal after scandal. Problem is, he's still getting smacked with scandals almost every day.

[GoTfan]

I think Morrison might eek out a minority, running solely against Morrison didn't work out too well for labour last time. IDK why they expect it work better this time ?

That's pretty much the opposite of the conventional wisdom that Labor made themselves far too big of a target with all their fancy policies instead of just opposing.

Adding onto this, Morrison was able to win the last election because he was able to make it about his character vs Bill Shorten's character. He won that round.

This time, he's up against Anthony Albanese, a man who grew up in public housing as the son of a single mother, who is on record as being critical of both Rudd and Gillard for their conduct in that Labor chaos period.

Morrison can't win this character fight. Not after the last two years. His two primary hopes are that beating the China drum and courting the religious right will be the ticket.

[GoTfan]

How hardline are Labor on Covid restrictions compared to the government's policies?

As an outside observer my impression is that Labour has bee trying to pin the blame on Scomo for the omicron surge while avoiding saying what they've had done differently beyond more ART's or "competence" avoiding the hard question of whether or not they'd have reopened the border to quarantine free-travel or not.

As someone very hostile the LNP/National Coallation this is strikes me as a very self-serving political strategy that would probably discourage me from voting labour if I was australian.

Yeah, there's a reason why Labour's avoiding syaing what they'd do. Last time they did, they got pilloried in the media and lost the election.

[GoTfan]

Gun to my head, I still say Morrison wins.

[GoTfan]

I still say Morrison wins. Polls are already tightening, and given that the media is already running interference, that will bias things toward him.

[GoTfan]

Like I said, the only story anyone's talking about Albo's flub.

Newscorp's already decided who the winner will be.

[GoTfan]

So overall, a pretty mixed week with some bad flubs from both leaders.

Among the highlights: Morrison seems unable to develop an election strategy beyond 'we make jobs'. Ironic, considering the factory he visited is cutting jobs and outsourcing them.

[GoTfan]

Morrison will still win I believe-Australians are stupid people and easily influenced by whatever's in The Australian.

[GoTfan]

My question is why an 'impartial' ABC journalist created a Twitter list called 'Labor Trolls' when she could've just blocked them. Instead she decided to single them out politically, which I believe is a violation of the ABC's code of conduct.

[GoTfan]

Labor are leading by 14 points in the polls over the LNP.

Not even a Hillary Clinton style choke will stop Albo from losing this election.

Labor has got it in the bag.

Women just don't like Scomo.

Link please?

[GoTfan]

Labor are leading by 14 points in the polls over the LNP.

Not even a Hillary Clinton style choke will stop Albo from losing this election.

Labor has got it in the bag.

Women just don't like Scomo.

Link please?

He's probably not referring to this:

Albanese pays a price for bad week as voters swing back to government

Labor leader Anthony Albanese has paid the price for a damaging opening week in the election campaign after voters cut their support for the opposition from 38 to 34 per cent while swinging back to Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister.

Primary support for the Coalition rose from 34 to 35 per cent, and Morrison made gains on his personal approval and performance on key issues including economic management and national security.

The first major survey of the campaign revealed a reversal of fortune for the two leaders, with Morrison leading Albanese as preferred prime minister by 38 to 30 per cent after the Labor leader held the advantage two weeks ago with a lead of 37 to 36 per cent.

All this does is confirm my belief that Australians are dumb and easily influenced.

[GoTfan]

Polling continues to show the ALP is favored in a 2PP count, but polling also continues to show that the key issues for voters in this election are the economy and the cost of living.  Traditionally, the Coalition leads on the economy and Labor leads on the cost of living.  But polling indicates that the Coalition and Labor are running about even on the cost of living, while the Coalition has a clear lead on the economy.

People would love to attribute a potential tightening in the race to the inherent stupidity of Australian voters or the bias of the Murdoch media, but consider also that perhaps people are only beginning to acquaint themselves with Anthony Albanese, and they simply do not like what they see.

The fact that people think Morrison is good on either is a testament to how stupid Australians are. As for Murdoch? Well, Morrison has made multiple gaffes, but no one covered them at all. Indeed, Sky News attempted to create a cover for him.

[GoTfan]

Yikes.

You know it's a bad night for Morrison when Andrew Bolt is calling the debate for Albo.

[GoTfan]

Is there any party that considers the horrifying, totalitarian Australian lockdowns a grave mistake and actually promises no more lockdowns? This would be my issue 1, 2, 3 etc. in Australia.

I mean pretty much everyone important outside of WA admit that it's time to move on....NSW and Vic are now saying "only isolate if you test positive" and masks have largely been scrapped.

In terms of being hard anti-lockdown, most of the minor right (especially the UAP and the LDP) seem to be pitching that way.

I don't even think the UAP is right wing. I think their position is more or less 'whatever Clive Palmer thinks will help him'

Let's not kid ourselves, Clive Palmer is the leader of that party, not Craig Kelly.

[GoTfan]

Is there any party that considers the horrifying, totalitarian Australian lockdowns a grave mistake and actually promises no more lockdowns? This would be my issue 1, 2, 3 etc. in Australia.

I mean pretty much everyone important outside of WA admit that it's time to move on....NSW and Vic are now saying "only isolate if you test positive" and masks have largely been scrapped.

In terms of being hard anti-lockdown, most of the minor right (especially the UAP and the LDP) seem to be pitching that way.

I don't even think the UAP is right wing. I think their position is more or less 'whatever Clive Palmer thinks will help him'

Let's not kid ourselves, Clive Palmer is the leader of that party, not Craig Kelly.

Weren't they like pro-refugee or something ?

I can't work out what the hell their positions are. Like I said, I just boil it down to 'whatever Clive Palmer thinks will help him.'

[GoTfan]

Whelp, it was inevitable.

After Morrison's horror debate last night, the comment making the rounds is the fact that he's apparently "Blessed to have children without a disability".

Senator Hollie Hughes has managed to dig the hole even deeper by saying that she didn't feel particuarly blessed when she had an autistic child, and basically engaging in a lot of victim-blaming towards the disabled community.

Everyone will of course forget about this in a day or so because it'll no doubt be swept under the rug in less than a week by Murdoch and Costello, but  . . . oof.

[GoTfan]

Whelp, it was inevitable.

After Morrison's horror debate last night, the comment making the rounds is the fact that he's apparently "Blessed to have children without a disability".

Senator Hollie Hughes has managed to dig the hole even deeper by saying that she didn't feel particuarly blessed when she had an autistic child, and basically engaging in a lot of victim-blaming towards the disabled community.

Everyone will of course forget about this in a day or so because it'll no doubt be swept under the rug in less than a week by Murdoch and Costello, but  . . . oof.

I don't mean to be impolite, but your commentary is borderline delusional.

"Horror debate" is an incredible reach.  In fact, Albanese is getting credit for managing to (mostly) speak in complete sentences, given how low expectations were after his first week on the campaign trail.  His answers on foreign policy questions lacked coherence and raise his competence into question yet again.  He had a good closing statement but I saw nothing in the debate that will substantially alter the trajectory of the campaign (and not just because nobody watched it).  He's lucky that it was on Sky News, frankly.  Scott Morrison even handled a question about electric vehicles better than he did- pretty embarrassing for Labor.

There is now a real risk that due to Albanese narrowly winning the focus group straw poll*, he will think that his performance yesterday was good enough to win the election, when I would tend to think that he will need to put in more work to convince the undecided and apathetic.

*For anyone interested, the result was
Albanese 40
Morrison 35
Undecided 25

Remember, the election is still Albanese's to lose, but he has to actually convince people that he will be better than Scott Morrison, rather than convince people that Scott Morrison sucks.  Those are two different tasks.

Not sure how it's delusional when even Sky News' talking heads like Murray, Bolt and Credlin couldn't spin it positively for Morrison.

As far as foreign policy, the government's failures were made apparent yesterday. And I don't think his comment about being blessed not to have disable children is going to play all that well. Of course, Murdoch and Costello will see it swept under the rug in a day or so though.

[GoTfan]

Not sure how it's delusional when even Sky News' talking heads couldn't spin it positively for Morrison.

You seem to be (intentionally?) missing the point.  Everybody knows who Scott Morrison is, and many people have a hardened, unfavourable impression of him.  That he ran nearly even with Albanese in this debate when Shorten won all three easily in 2019 is a bad sign, not a good sign.  It's an indication that Albanese is having significant difficulty closing the deal despite widespread disaffection for the incumbent.

The Labor party literally began tweeting mid-debate about how much more cruel and inhumane they plan to be to asylum seekers.  Don't tell me that this is the sign of a confident performance, let alone a "horror debate" from the other side.

Okay, let me explain it then.

I know you love to discount what NewsCorp says, but the reality is that there are a lot of stupid, low-information voters who take what papers like the Herald Sun say as gospel

[GoTfan]

You’re both taking the debate slightly too seriously. It was broadcast on Sky getting their usual anemic ratings. Leader’s debates have never mattered in past elections and there’s no sign of that changing.

That comment about being blessed not to have disabled children is certainly making the rounds, though.

[GoTfan]

You’re both taking the debate slightly too seriously. It was broadcast on Sky getting their usual anemic ratings. Leader’s debates have never mattered in past elections and there’s no sign of that changing.

That comment about being blessed not to have disabled children is certainly making the rounds, though.

It’s just like any speech a politician gives. If you stay on script nobody cares but if you make a bad gaffe it’ll make the rounds of all the papers. Personally (as someone on the NDIS for Autism) I can see the point he thought he was making, and many would agree with it, but the way he worded it couched in his evangelical holier-than-thou was truly vile.

And then of course we have Hollie Hughes who grabbed the shovel with both hands and started digging even more.

[GoTfan]

Personally (as someone on the NDIS for Autism) I can see the point he thought he was making, and many would agree with it, but the way he worded it couched in his evangelical holier-than-thou was truly vile.

The average person would not see it as a 'holier-than-thou' comment largely because it was clearly not intended as one.  In fact, Morrison and his wife had a lot of difficulty having children and needed to use IVF along with the increased risks that this entails.  The Labor party would be wise not to overplay their hand because it just comes across as insincere finger-wagging.

It's astounding, really.  The attempt to continue to make an issue out of Morrison's religion has got to be some of the stupidest political strategy out there.  Labor has clearly learned nothing from 2019- they only listen to their own circle.

Other than the fact that his church is now under investigation for child abuse, right?

[GoTfan]

Other than the fact that his church is now under investigation for child abuse, right?

Another example of people believing their own propaganda.  Hillsong isn't his church.

So it's fake news that he's been to Hillsong services multiple times?

[GoTfan]

Other than the fact that his church is now under investigation for child abuse, right?

Another example of people believing their own propaganda.  Hillsong isn't his church.

So it's fake news that he's been to Hillsong services multiple times?

Consider employing your critical thinking skills.

Now, we know that politicians attend religious services on a regular basis.  This does not mean that they are members of that congregation, or in any way affiliated with the religious denomination.

All it would take is a simple fact check - you could very easily find out which church Scott Morrison attends in his electorate, and it's not Hillsong - and you would not be spreading misinformation.  Take a moment and consider that if the sitting PM were in any way involved in the cover-up of child abuse at Hillsong church, then the media would be working its very hardest to investigate and expose that link.  This isn't happening because of some conspiracy; it's not happening because Morrison literally is not a member of Hillsong church.

You severely overestimate Australian media's desire to hold the Liberals accountable forn anything

[GoTfan]

You’re both taking the debate slightly too seriously. It was broadcast on Sky getting their usual anemic ratings. Leader’s debates have never mattered in past elections and there’s no sign of that changing.

That comment about being blessed not to have disabled children is certainly making the rounds, though.

It’s just like any speech a politician gives. If you stay on script nobody cares but if you make a bad gaffe it’ll make the rounds of all the papers. Personally (as someone on the NDIS for Autism) I can see the point he thought he was making, and many would agree with it, but the way he worded it couched in his evangelical holier-than-thou was truly vile.

And then of course we have Hollie Hughes who grabbed the shovel with both hands and started digging even more.

It speaks volumes  that most of the socon foot-in-mouth problems of recent years have come from ScoMo’s centre-right faction rather than the conservative hard right faction. Hilarious that Dutton has got the traditional right go tone down social causes and focus on Law and Order/National Security while the NSW centre-right have taken over as resident bible bashers. Federal Liberal factions are so cursed.

Dutton's still a horrible person who wants to create a borderline police state.

[GoTfan]

Albo has tested positive for COVID and going into isolation for the next week. Not sure how this will affect the election, given the fact that campaigns have become increasingly presidential in the last 30-odd years.