Australia 2022 Election

[CumbrianLefty]

Though of course both colonialism and racism were totally "normal" in his time. But that's ultimately just another reason why these childish "gotcha" questions are so utterly pointless.

[CumbrianLefty]

Gun to my head, I still say Morrison wins.

The polls would have to be really wrong and/or there would have to be a massive swing to him during the actual campaign for this to happen. I realise why pessimism is pretty ingrained amongst the left in Australia now, but its maybe just as possible you are in line for your own 1997

[CumbrianLefty]

Gun to my head, I still say Morrison wins.

The polls would have to be really wrong and/or there would have to be a massive swing to him during the actual campaign for this to happen. I realise why pessimism is pretty ingrained amongst the left in Australia now, but its maybe just as possible you are in line for your own 1997

My guess is that it will be a narrow Labor win, with a real possibility of Labor as the largest party in a hung parliament. At this point though, it's looking like too much to ask for him to win properly.

A 54-46 or 55-45 split would surely lead to a clear Labor majority, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Morrison will still win I believe-Australians are stupid people and easily influenced by whatever's in The Australian.

All this sounds rather familiar to a British leftist.....

(but in both cases, it is just a bit of an over-simplification - even to the extent it is true)

[CumbrianLefty]

I still think ScoMo will pull it out. He just needs to get out the ukulele some more and people will see that he's just like them. Albo has lost too much weight to be PM.

Well that's profound.

[CumbrianLefty]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Why do you blame Labor for this when it was very much a cross party thing?

[CumbrianLefty]

UK is still 87% white, but its a bit lower than that for white *British*.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, if the ALP manage to blow this one they might as well pack up and go home.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, turns out Newspoll was released at 7:30 rather than 9:30 today.

And it's 53/47.

Herding worries me a bit (numbers seem nearly identical to Ipsos) but absent something really freakish I can't see how the Liberals win.

It shouldn't be presumed that poll herding automatically understates the right, of course.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not Antony Green but I do not see how the Coalition can form a government under these numbers.

Bribe the Greens, Net zero by 2025. The Real story of this election is that saying " Screw the Enviorment" is suprisingly not a very popular political postion.

Seriously, what are the chances of this happening even if the numbers are there?

[CumbrianLefty]

Officially projected that the Coalition CANNOT win outright.

Well that has proved the worst of the doomers wrong

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm still my doomer self and think that the next few hours will dramatically change the result, but a little bit of hope is coming back.

That latter part is very annoying.

As someone that had a night of terror on November 3rd-4th, 2020 watching results, I would urge you to stay calm. (Yes, I know it's not easy.) They've already ruled out a Coalition Majority, so that's something and a big step in the right direction.

And haven't media networks generally become much more cautious about calling these things after what happened in 2000? If they are officially saying no coalition majority, there is almost certainly a 99.9% chance that this is correct.

[CumbrianLefty]

At this rate, when it comes to the Coalition, who knows if we're headed for an eventuality of Liberal/National *seat parity*.

There have apparently been some Liberals saying that the Coalition has to split if the Liberals want to survive. Take that with a truckload of salt though.

Is it really the Nationals who are the problem, though?  Looking in from the outside, the Liberals seem to have enough of the sort of culture war politics which alienates the sort of voters who went to the "teal independents" of their own.

The massive transphobe who lost a very "winnable" seat was a Liberal, no?

[CumbrianLefty]

How strong is party discipline, will labour have any trouble keeping it's MP's in line ?

Fairly strong as a rule, and a small majority or even minority position can often make that easier in at least some respects. Whatever happens with the final undeclared seats the ALP will also have a fair sized lead over the coalition, so their position may be stronger than it initially looks.

[CumbrianLefty]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

Maybe shows the last minute scare campaigning from the coalition (and Murdoch) had an effect. But it also leaves those seats vulnerable to the ALP next time if they govern effectively.

[CumbrianLefty]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

The last time Labor defeated the government from opposition (2007) they won 9 out of 19 seats within 3% (9 out of 22 seats if you widen the criteria to within 4%).

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

The butthurt is strong in this one.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win

Yes, but that wasn't quite the question I asked

[CumbrianLefty]

Can't really be unhappy with that given their anaemic "first choice" share.

And getting a majority with slightly under 52% of the two party vote shows quite a lot of the previous "pro-coalition" bias in the system has been dissipated.

[CumbrianLefty]

All the ballots have been counted as all seats have been declared. The final turnout feel bellow 90% for the first time since 1922, just before compulsory voting was introduced.

The final TPP numbers have Labor at 52.1% and the Coalition at 47.9%.

So the polls weren't much wrong at all, in the end.