Australia 2022 Election

[Pulaski]

Sometimes pollsters can over correct and the error in polls doesn’t always go the same way. In 2010 and in 2017 the polls in the UK underestimated Labour. In 2015 they underestimated the Tories. In Australia there tends to be less polling misses because voting is compulsory and so there is less of a differential turnout factor. Apart from 2019 I think in every other Australian election I can remember the polls were highly accurate. Though wasn’t there an election in the early 90s when Labor under Paul Keating had a shock win when everyone echoed them
To lose?

You're talking about 1993, when Labor had dumped Hawke in favour of Keating and the aging government was expected to lose to a resurgent Coalition led by a fresh face in John Hewson. Labor were certainly expected to lose at the outset, but the Coalition had a shocker of a campaign in which Hewson struggled to explain his party's GST proposal in the infamous "birthday cake" interview. By election day the polls had narrowed considerably - the last poll taken the day before even had Labor ahead. So a surprise to the general public certainly but not really a big polling error.

Hewson's was probably the last opposition (up until maybe Shorten's in 2019) to adopt a big policy agenda for an election, and the radically right-wing "Fightback" was largely credited with their loss. Hewson himself has moderated over the years, as many Liberal leaders have done.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

[DL]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

Islington has an extremely high child poverty rate(43%), much of the labour support there comes from council estates not hipsters. The Bobo hipster left is a thing in Australia, but it's mostly concentrated in the green party(look at their single seat in Melbourne center) and the split-between the Australian National and Liberal party, prevents the urban conservative party from having the baggage that sinks other conservative parties among suburbanites.

[Tintrlvr]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

The corrrect British analogy for Wentworth is surely a seat like Kensington or maybe even Chelsea and Fulham, except Wentworth is a bit more suburban than either. I agree that such a seat would be unwinnable for the Republicans in the United States, and maybe for the Tories in Canada,* but it's clearly still very winnable for the Tories in the UK at least, and Labour is as irrelevant in Chelsea and Fulham as Labor is in Wentworth.

*I think the way Toronto is cut up doesn't create any great analogies, but neighborhoods like Rosedale, Forest Hill and/or Bridle Path if united into a single riding would be a good analogy - and that seat probably would be winnable for the Tories.

[DL]

*I think the way Toronto is cut up doesn't create any great analogies, but neighborhoods like Rosedale, Forest Hill and/or Bridle Path if united into a single riding would be a good analogy - and that seat probably would be winnable for the Tories.

I'm not so sure about that...with Canada's Tories now embracing anti-vax conspiracy theories and crypto-currencies, attacking so-called elites and wanting to force municipalities to increase density in leafy residential areas - I think any vestigial federal Tory support among Rosedale bluebloods will evaporate very quickly. If Pierre Poilievre means what he says, Toronto will have to allow high rise apartment buildings to be built anywhere anyone wants to be build one - even its in the middle of Rosedale!

Anyways, back to Australia. I remember being surprised that the Liberals were not totally blown out of the water in urban upscale seats in Sydney and Melbourne when they were led by Tony Abbott who one would think would be a total turn off to those people. I just assumed that in Australia is just ingrained in the DNA of a lot of educated professionals that "rich successful people" vote Liberal and only losers vote ALP.

Perhaps these so-called "teal independents" appeal to Australians who see themselves as too smart to vote Liberal and too rich to vote ALP

[JimJamUK]

The UK Labour vote among the genuinely wealthy inner London voter is still pretty derisory. They are capable of winning seats with a lot of wealthy voters if this is balanced out by council estates (see Kensington, Westminster North, the Wandsworth seats etc), but others remain largely wealthy enough to prevent them going Labour yet (Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Richmond Park etc). A lot of these people vote Lib Dem, which de facto cover a lot of the same ground as the teal independents.

Labour are able to do genuinely well in seats that are mistakenly called ‘wealthy’ but are really not eg; the Islington’s, Hornsey and Wood Green etc. These seats do have some genuinely wealthy voters in parts, but they also have council estates as well as many ‘bobo’ voters that are fairly middle class but certainly not upper class (they tend to be private renters who pay a large portion of their income on rent, disproportionately young, a lot of them are ethnic minorities etc). These voters have went Lib Dem in the past and often vote Green in 2nd order elections. Of course, in Australia these sorts of voters tend to go Green in federal elections as well.

UK and Australian voting patterns just aren’t that different, and class voting is still relevant when taking account of other variables (America on the other hand...).

[DL]

Its funny how some of this "class voting" is based on such outmoded ideas of what party represents what class and what is in what class's best interest.

For example, if you are wealthy business person living in Chelsea or a professional living in Hampstead, there is nothing you could vote for that would be more totally DESTRUCTIVE to your own self-interest than the pro-Brexit Tories under Boris Johnson! Seriously, no one has more to lose on a personal level from Brexit than anyone in London who is a wealthy professional or a business person. And yet, due to some vestigial "snob appeal" that the Tories still retain, many of these plutocrats and other well-off folk will still suicidally vote for the party that brought them Brexit etc...

[morgieb]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

FTR the Oz equivalents of Islington et al vote Labor too….mostly by massive margins as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

FTR the Oz equivalents of Islington et al vote Labor too….mostly by massive margins as well.

Which singular electoral division do you think is most likenable to Islington?

[adma]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

Whatever the leadership, the Coalition is still a "big tent" entity--in fact, if you want a Canadian equivalent of the Aussie dynamic, look no further than the part of Canada that's closest to Australia.  That is, BC, where you have a currently-in-power "Labor" entity (the BCNDP) vs, well, the fittingly-named BC Liberals mashing up the interior rednecks w/the urbane Langara/Quilchena types...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

Whatever the leadership, the Coalition is still a "big tent" entity--in fact, if you want a Canadian equivalent of the Aussie dynamic, look no further than the part of Canada that's closest to Australia.  That is, BC, where you have a currently-in-power "Labor" entity (the BCNDP) vs, well, the fittingly-named BC Liberals mashing up the interior rednecks w/the urbane Langara/Quilchena types...

The BC Liberals do identify themselves as a "free enterprise coalition", similarly to the Coalition, and both unify a bunch of elements opposed to socialism into one entity.

[morgieb]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

FTR the Oz equivalents of Islington et al vote Labor too….mostly by massive margins as well.

Which singular electoral division do you think is most likenable to Islington?

I haven’t been to Islington so I can’t say….but I get big Grayndler vibes from similar areas (Camden, Shoreditch).

Possibly also those Inner North electorates? (Wills, Cooper)

[DL]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

Whatever the leadership, the Coalition is still a "big tent" entity--in fact, if you want a Canadian equivalent of the Aussie dynamic, look no further than the part of Canada that's closest to Australia.  That is, BC, where you have a currently-in-power "Labor" entity (the BCNDP) vs, well, the fittingly-named BC Liberals mashing up the interior rednecks w/the urbane Langara/Quilchena types...

The BC Liberals do identify themselves as a "free enterprise coalition", similarly to the Coalition, and both unify a bunch of elements opposed to socialism into one entity.

Ironically there is no major party in BC (or anywhere in Canada) that is in any way, shape or form “socialist”. Some would even classify the NDP as anti-socialist these as well (or at least non-socialist). Seriously, the NDP government in BC is about as "socialist" as the Democratic governor of Washington state! Similarly can anyone keep a straight face and call the Australian Labor Party “socialist”? When was the last time the ALP campaigned on the workers owning the means of production and ending private property??? These days what we are seeing more and more is liberals and social democrats forming alliance to keep out the rabid extreme right. The idea of a so-called "free eneterprise coalition" is very much an anachronism. I mean who exactly is against "free enterprise" in any North American or European jurisdiction?

[Pulaski]

One thing that hasn't been accounted for in this thread is the difference in UK's FPTP versus Australia's preferential system, which makes tactical voting much more common in the UK and almost irrelevant in Australia. Macnamara in Victoria (formerly known as Melbourne Ports) would be a decent comparison with places like Islington IMO; it has working-class industrial areas coupled with wealthier areas in Caulfield and those classic well-educated left-leaning bougie types in St Kilda. Because of the split between Labor and the Greens, the Liberals have actually won the primary vote in the past 3 elections there, but the subsequent filtering of Greens preferences have kept the seat relatively comfortable for Labor on 2PP (though the margin has been diminishing).

Of course, there are a few differences with Macnamara and Islington North; Corbyn still retains phenomenal local support, and the Lib Dems have drawn support from pro-EU Tory voters, meaning the Conservatives don't have nearly the same level of support - no Lib Dem-parallel teal independent has run in Macnamara. But I think tactical voting has boosted Labour's support in Islington North to a certain extent; in a 2PP system, a decent chunk of those voters might have placed the Greens first and preferenced Labour.

[Pulaski]

Another important difference is Australia's compulsory voting system. I'd wager that in plenty of safe UK constituencies there exist sizeable chunks of voters for parties who have no chance of winning the seat, and as a result don't bother to turn up to vote. Voter apathy would also be a big influence; if you're a Tory voter but severely disappointed in the party, you might just not bother to turn up - in Australia, those voters turn up anyway, and until recently kept unenthusiastically supporting their tribe.

[GoTfan]

RBA has raised interest rates. Certainly makes the cost of living argument stronger.

[Intell]

Wentworth is probably most similarly economically and culturally to an electorate like Wimbledon, professionals, wealthy people, socially liberal and elite. The likes of Islington in Australia still vote solidly for Labor; Granalyder, Sydney etc. Australia is probably more class polarised than England in urban metropolises, but voting patterns are largely the same.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The other issue is that the Australian population is far more concentrated in state capitals than in other countries, Queensland aside. If the Liberals wrote off Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth they would mathematically be locked out of rule in those states.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The other issue is that the Australian population is far more concentrated in state capitals than in other countries, Queensland aside. If the Liberals wrote off Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth they would mathematically be locked out of rule in those states.

Australia is one of the worlds most urbanised countries, that means that any competitive party has to be able to win over urban voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The other issue is that the Australian population is far more concentrated in state capitals than in other countries, Queensland aside. If the Liberals wrote off Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth they would mathematically be locked out of rule in those states.

Australia is one of the worlds most urbanised countries, that means that any competitive party has to be able to win over urban voters.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?t=Australia_house_of_representatives
I toyed with this, created a "Bogans and Miners Party" colored purple, gave it everything besides the insets, and ended up with only 48 seats, roughly 60% the amount needed for a majority.
And that's already including many districts located along the coast that are basically urban, and outer metropolitan.

[adma]

Ironically there is no major party in BC (or anywhere in Canada) that is in any way, shape or form “socialist”. Some would even classify the NDP as anti-socialist these as well (or at least non-socialist). Seriously, the NDP government in BC is about as "socialist" as the Democratic governor of Washington state! Similarly can anyone keep a straight face and call the Australian Labor Party “socialist”? When was the last time the ALP campaigned on the workers owning the means of production and ending private property??? These days what we are seeing more and more is liberals and social democrats forming alliance to keep out the rabid extreme right. The idea of a so-called "free eneterprise coalition" is very much an anachronism. I mean who exactly is against "free enterprise" in any North American or European jurisdiction?

I think the consistent thread to both the past "free enterprise" alliances and the more recent left-alliances is a bid to keep "those coarse folk" out of power.  One's definition of "coarseness" can, of course, differ (not to mention how said pigeonholed "coarse" can politically migrate: thus Obama/Trump, Labour/Leave, the American South's morph from a Dem monolith to a GOP monolith, etc)

[Pericles]

RBA has raised interest rates. Certainly makes the cost of living argument stronger.

Didn't think they would actually do it in an election campaign and risk swinging the outcome. This is the second time the Coalition has been screwed by a mid-campaign interest rate hike.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Wentworth is probably most similarly economically and culturally to an electorate like Wimbledon, professionals, wealthy people, socially liberal and elite. The likes of Islington in Australia still vote solidly for Labor; Granalyder, Sydney etc. Australia is probably more class polarised than England in urban metropolises, but voting patterns are largely the same.

The places comparable to Grayndler could be those London constituencies which had a big Green vote in 2015 (by some distance the Green Party's best general election in terms of votes). Holborn and St Pancreas springs to mind, not least because of whose seat it is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

RBA has raised interest rates. Certainly makes the cost of living argument stronger.

Didn't think they would actually do it in an election campaign and risk swinging the outcome. This is the second time the Coalition has been screwed by a mid-campaign interest rate hike.

What would the other time be? 2007?