Australia 2022 Election

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Worth noting that the origins of the ALP are traced back to a strike of Queensland sheep shearers (the same strike that inspired "Waltzing Matilda"). As I said though, Queensland is an exceptional state, given its heavy regionalisation, which has made it uniquely radical

As for other left wing small towns, I guess there's Whyalla in South Australia?

[Intell]

Mining/Industrial small towns still vote for the left [broken hill, collie, Cessnock, Gladstone] though they have been trending right, a lot of these small towns have been strongly for the left historically (even were partially sources of strength for the communist party!). Farming and Agricultural areas have always voted for the nationals and for the right (strongest areas for One Nation too).

[morgieb]

Worth noting that the origins of the ALP are traced back to a strike of Queensland sheep shearers (the same strike that inspired "Waltzing Matilda"). As I said though, Queensland is an exceptional state, given its heavy regionalisation, which has made it uniquely radical

As for other left wing small towns, I guess there's Whyalla in South Australia?

Examples of left-wing small towns would be:

* Gladstone
* Rockhampton (though that voted LNP in 2019)
* Bundaberg (historically anyway, still can vote Labor at the state level)
* Mackay (as above)
* Byron Bay (though obviously the Left's strength here is far less historical)
* Kurri Kurri/Weston
* Cessnock
* Maitland
* Lithgow
* Broken Hill
* Queanbeyan
* Morwell/Moe (see Bundaberg/Mackay)
* Whyalla
* Port Augusta (see Bundaberg et al)
* Collie

There's probably more. But with the exception of Byron and Queanbeyan all are largely based on primary industries. Mount Isa might also count without the Katter factor.

And yeah, once upon a time Labor actually did really well in outback NSW.

[GoTfan]

Was the ALP ever able to compete for farmers ?. Seems like a loosing stratagey to focus on a block that almost never votes for you and isn't located in that many competive ridings.

They typically don't support the ALP, no, but there is widespread discontent among regional electorates if the ALP would bother to even make the effort to tap into it.  It's not wise to read too much into these debates*, but the performance of the Labor shadow minister was so bad that even the left-leaning papers admitted it.  That being said, it's interesting how little I've seen about regional independents this time around - there was quite a lot of hype in 2019 (misplaced, as it turned out).

*Another one today - Josh Frydenberg vs Jim Chalmers for the treasurers debate.  I haven't had time to review the whole thing but the clips seem to indicate that Chalmers was the winner, for whatever that's worth.  (Frydenberg is obviously pretty distracted given the difficulties he's facing in keeping his own seat.)

What's the source of this discontent, trade deals or something else ?

Given the negative partisanship that exists for the ALP perhaps leaving the task of tapping into this discontent to various indepednets is the best stratagey for weakening the national party.

Labor has a bit of a crisis going on because of the right breaking into their more blue-collar seats while the Greens are pretty strongly appealing to the inner-city university and climate voters.

Labor's been trying to triangulate themselves, but that isn't going to work for much longer.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And yeah, once upon a time Labor actually did really well in outback NSW.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Source of that map is Antony Green’s archived NSW election atlas. One of the few comprehensive Aussie historical political sources that’s ever been online. There’s also Adam Carr’s Psephos if you’re interested in Victoria. (hopefully someday someone will start comprehensively mapping stuff for Wikipedia but until then…).

[Хahar 🤔]

A lot of this comes down to economic change: what local economic activity exists in remote areas is much less labor-intensive than it used to be, which means that the Labor base in those places no longer exists, the workers having been replaced by machines. Particularly in Western Australia, much of what work still exists is now performed by workers who live in the capital and fly out in shifts, and those workers vote in Perth rather than in their places of employment. Non-metropolitan malapportionment (which has finally now been abolished all across Australia) also tended to magnify the remote Labor vote by giving small outlying towns their own underpopulated constituencies: consider, for instance, the seat of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, which was safe Labor for as long as it was based around the town of Kalgoorlie but fell to the Liberals when electoral reform led to its being significantly expanded.

Note that I have referred here to remote seats rather than to rural seats. In what we would think of as rural areas (that is to say, settled areas without large population centers), Labor has never done well, as one would expect. Consider the electorate of Gippsland, which was created at Federation and in the 120 years since has never returned a Labor MP.

[they don't love you like i love you]

A lot of this comes down to economic change: what local economic activity exists in remote areas is much less labor-intensive than it used to be, which means that the Labor base in those places no longer exists, the workers having been replaced by machines. Particularly in Western Australia, much of what work still exists is now performed by workers who live in the capital and fly out in shifts, and those workers vote in Perth rather than in their places of employment. Non-metropolitan malapportionment (which has finally now been abolished all across Australia) also tended to magnify the remote Labor vote by giving small outlying towns their own underpopulated constituencies: consider, for instance, the seat of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, which was safe Labor for as long as it was based around the town of Kalgoorlie but fell to the Liberals when electoral reform led to its being significantly expanded.

Note that I have referred here to remote seats rather than to rural seats. In what we would  think of as rural areas (that is to say, settled areas without large population centers), Labor has never done well, as one would expect. Consider the electorate of Gippsland, which was created at Federation and in the 120 years since has never returned a Labor MP.

Awww I just learned Kalgoorlie no longer exists. It was awesome for its massive size.

Durack is huge too of course but not THAT big. Kalgoorlie was like the size of Western Europe minus Scandinavia.

[Хahar 🤔]

A lot of this comes down to economic change: what local economic activity exists in remote areas is much less labor-intensive than it used to be, which means that the Labor base in those places no longer exists, the workers having been replaced by machines. Particularly in Western Australia, much of what work still exists is now performed by workers who live in the capital and fly out in shifts, and those workers vote in Perth rather than in their places of employment. Non-metropolitan malapportionment (which has finally now been abolished all across Australia) also tended to magnify the remote Labor vote by giving small outlying towns their own underpopulated constituencies: consider, for instance, the seat of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, which was safe Labor for as long as it was based around the town of Kalgoorlie but fell to the Liberals when electoral reform led to its being significantly expanded.

Note that I have referred here to remote seats rather than to rural seats. In what we would think of as rural areas (that is to say, settled areas without large population centers), Labor has never done well, as one would expect. Consider the electorate of Gippsland, which was created at Federation and in the 120 years since has never returned a Labor MP.

Awww I just learned Kalgoorlie no longer exists. It was awesome for its massive size.

Durack is huge too of course but not THAT big. Kalgoorlie was like the size of Western Europe minus Scandinavia.

Oh, I should clarify that I actually meant the state constituency of Kalgoorlie (which is much smaller than the old federal constituency, even though it's much bigger than it used to be when it was based around Kalgoorlie proper), but yes, it's unfortunate that there's no longer a single constituency taking up 30% of Australia.

[morgieb]

To restart my predictions, here's Victoria:

Nicholls - on paper, this is a very safe Nationals seat. But the sitting MP is retiring which has allowed for a three-cornered contest and there also is a very strong Independent running. Although the impression of Independents attacking safe Coalition seats seems to be an urban one, an under-rated recent factor is that the Nats are under threat in some of their heartlands as well. This looks to be very close and given how many visits Joyce has had to the seat I think the Nats know it. Although I'm slightly weary of seeing another Kevin Mack situation, I think Preistly wins this.

Gippsland - it's crazy to think that this seat was extremely close as recently as the Howard Years on the current boundaries. I guess that shows what's happened in the Latrobe Valley recently. There's probably room for a swing but it seems like Chester has nailed down the seat and this is obviously safe.

Mallee - although population decline means that the seat is no longer the safest in Australia (which it was for a while), this is still a very safe Nationals seat and without a big-name Independent running will remain so. The primary votes in 2019 were very odd but was probably influenced by the sitting MP retiring.

Wannon - another safe rural seat for the Coalition, though this one is Liberal held rather than Nationals held. Alex Dyson ran well here in 2019 so his vote might be one to watch, maybe? Long-term the seat could start to get interesting as the Surf Coast grows and seachanger factors rise but that's probably still another generation away.

Aston - on paper, a safe Liberal seat. But Labor came close here in 2010 (and extremely close on the current boundaries) and Tudge has had a lot of problems with an affair and some bullying allegations. I don't think it'll be enough to sink him especially as the area has trended right long-term, but the swing will be interesting to watch and it might be pushed into marginal territory.

Goldstein - historically this was as blue-ribbon of a seat as you could get in Melbourne. But the area is quite progressive these days and in 2018 I think Labor would've won the seat assuming state boundaries were extrapolated to federal ones. Tim Wilson is a bit of a controversial incumbent without much personal support and he is now facing a very strong Teal Independent in Zoe Daniel. It's possible that her bubble might've burst too early, but I think as things stand she wins the seat.

Menzies - I think this is probably the most secure seat for the Coalition in urban Melbourne. It's not really a culturally progressive seat akin to some of the other blue-ribbon Melbourne-based seats, and while there's no sitting MP Andrews was a controversial figure so in some ways they may be better off not having him as their MP.

Monash - again another seat I think should be secure, though like Wannon I could see the long-term trend be interesting as some of the dormitory towns grow and the Bass Coast seems ripe for seachange style voters.

Flinders - interesting one. Historically it's a fairly safe seat but the seat did become semi-close in 2019. There's a fair bit of demographic similarity between this and the Golden Triangle seats and Greg Hunt is retiring which makes things hard for the Libs. An advantage they gained was a leading Independent in Despi O'Connor being caught out on s44 breaches and having to suspend her campaign - without it I think she would've made the seat very close. I'm not sure if it's ready to vote Labor - my guess is that Labor narrowly miss out - but it does have boilover potential especially if Labor are doing very well.

Kooyong - is Josh Frydenberg the new Michael Portillo? That might be the key question of the night. The area is very blue-ribbon but also quite culturally progressive, and there was already a lot of bleeding in 2019. And he's got the fight of his life against Monique Ryan and this is a seat where Morrison is clearly on the nose. So this will be very close. Forced to call, I think Frydenberg just about hangs on through sheer bile, but this is about as close to a pure toss-up as you can get.

La Trobe - it's worth noting that this is no longer the same seat that was a classic marginal for so many years - it swapped Labor-friendly territory in the Dandenong Ranges for the Pakenham area as well as some Liberal voting rural areas. So the seat is a bit safer for the Libs than the old one (even in 07/10 this would've been held fairly comfortably on current boundaries). However it's also worth noting that the population of the seat was much smaller back then than it is now as the Pakenham area has grown, and it's hard to think of a a seat that was more perfectly designed to be a marginal than this. Something like 70% of the seat is experiencing mortgage stress so CoL issues will bite here. I think this will probably remain a Liberal hold, but it remains a seat to watch.

Deakin - another seat where boundary changes haven't been favourable to Labor, turning the previous marginal into a Liberal-leaning electorate with the marginal Blackburn being swapped with the Liberal-voting Croydon. So on current boundaries Labor wouldn't have won it in 2007 or 2010. It doesn't seem like Labor are making much of an effort to flip this so I don't think it goes, but it should be tight.

Casey - this is basically the Melbourne version of Macquarie at this point combining a treechangery Labor-leaning area (the Dandenongs) with Liberal voting outer suburbs. The balance is more in favour of the Lilydale/Mooroolbark area than the Dandenongs though so that helps the Liberals. However Tony Smith is retiring and the Liberal candidate to replace him doesn't seem particularly strong. The polarised nature of the seat probably helps especially as the northern part of the seat seems Morrison friendly. So close, but no cigar for Labor.

Higgins - looks horrifically vulnerable, but there are a couple of factors that might help Allen - she now has the advantage of being the incumbent and has at least tried to differentiate herself from more standard Liberals, while the Labor candidate has made a name for herself for her anti-AstraZeneca campaigning, which could easily smear her as an anti-vaxxer. So it'll come down to party or candidate most likely. There's also the factor of the Greens, who hold the state seat of Prahran and were close to finishing in the Top 2 here last time. Will be close, but I'll tip a Greens gain.

Chisholm - on paper, this should be gone. But Liu is a very tough campaigner and unlike 2019 Labor's candidate isn't Chinese, so she may have the benefits of an unaffected ethnic vote this time around. Labor have also gone dirty to try and attack her, which is a sign that they think this is very close and it also has the risk of backfiring. All in all, I think the margin is too small for the Libs to hold this....but the swing might be somewhat muted.

[Pericles]

Malcolm Turnbull endorses teal independents

Wow, he is pissed about losing the leadership and that they didn't go along with him on climate change.  Maybe some moderate Liberal voters will agree with him.

[Pulaski]

Not super surprising, the guy never had a great relationship with the Liberal party. If the teal independents were a political party in their own right then Turnbull would be their natural leader.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Albanese could not tell the media his own policy on the NDIS.

NDIS Stumble

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BC1lhbK98Q

Even though this guy sounds like a bumbling idiot in front of the camera, I still think he has this election in the bag.

Sportbet has

Labor at $1.40
Coalition at $2.90
Hung Parliament at $2.05

I am thinking that Labor will romp it in through encumbency fatigue.

[GoTfan]

Albanese could not tell the media his own policy on the NDIS.

NDIS Stumble

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BC1lhbK98Q

Even though this guy sounds like a bumbling idiot in front of the camera, I still think he has this election in the bag.

Sportbet has

Labor at $1.40
Coalition at $2.90
Hung Parliament at $2.05

I am thinking that Labor will romp it in through encumbency fatigue.

Morrison: Multiple scandals, having a potential rapist on the front bench, hiding Alan Tudge, etc.

Media: *crickets*

Albanese: Makes a couple of gaffes

Media: *incoherent screaming*

[Pulaski]

Polls are out showing Labor are on track to take the must-win Boothby in SA, and the teal independent up BIG in Mackellar.

Think the chances of the Coalition keeping a majority are slipping fast now.

[Benjamin Frank]

Albanese could not tell the media his own policy on the NDIS.

NDIS Stumble

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BC1lhbK98Q

Even though this guy sounds like a bumbling idiot in front of the camera, I still think he has this election in the bag.

Sportbet has

Labor at $1.40
Coalition at $2.90
Hung Parliament at $2.05

I am thinking that Labor will romp it in through encumbency fatigue.

Morrison: Multiple scandals, having a potential rapist on the front bench, hiding Alan Tudge, etc.

Media: *crickets*

Albanese: Makes a couple of gaffes

Media: *incoherent screaming*

What do you expect given that the Australian mainstream media is dominated by Rupert Murdoch? 

[morgieb]

And....Victorian Labor/other seats:

Corangamite - interesting one. This seat is basically a suburban Geelong one at this point with some seachanger influence. Given the demographics I have a hard time seeing this seat flip but supposedly the Liberals are semi-confident. Their candidate is very well-known in the swingier part of the electorate which might help? But I suspect it will stay Labor.

Dunkley - historically Liberal held, this seat shed a large chunk of Liberal territory before 2019 to become more overtly based on Frankston turning it into a Labor seat. There has been talk that Andrews is on the nose in suburban Melbourne which might cause headaches for Labor given that the seat is still quite marginal. But it doesn't sound like the Libs are too confident here, so I suspect this stays Labor.

McEwen - I think if there is an anti-Andrews backlash in the suburbs, it'll be most keenly felt in the North which seems the most anti-lockdown part of Melbourne. This is the only North/West Melbourne seat that is remotely marginal so it's probably the only seat to watch for that effect, and it does sound like the Liberals are optimistic here. Still, a 5% margin is large....very large when the rest of the country is likely to swing the other way. And the sitting MP is recontesting so there'll be no loss of personal vote to influence a swing here. So  even if it swings Liberal, this should stay Labor.

Jagajaga - this is a strange seat. Some legitimately inner-city areas, some very working-class areas, some wealthy suburbs. Overall this generally balances out to a safe enough Labor seat. Will stay Labor.

Macnamara - I remember thinking Labor was doomed here once Danby retired after the 2016 results. Strong performances in inner-city areas in 2019 however helped Labor, and it seems likely that this part of the world will continue to trend Labor medium-term. A complicating factor will be the Greens, who were about 7% behind Labor in 2019. If there is a significant leftie backlash towards Labor it could hit here. But it doesn't seem like the Greens are that optimistic of flipping it, and I think Labor's position against the Greens should be safe enough.

Isaacs - given the election this should be safe Labor, especially as the Liberal candidate has a few problems with lying about residency. In future elections I could see this being tight as much of the territory is classic marginal territory at the state level, but this doesn't apply to 2022 and will obviously be future election dependent.

Bruce - it's crazy to think how much the seat has changed in the last few years. The historic version combined Dandenong with Glen Waverley, then it became a purely Dandenong seat, now it has the Narre Warren area to go with Dandenong. In this time it's gone from a Labor-leaning seat to a very safe Labor one to a fairly safe Labor one. Unless it keeps moving east this should be Labor-held in the long-term.

Wills - an interestingly balanced seat between traditional working-class areas in the north of the seat and inner-city progressive areas in the south. This should stay Labor for this election but the margin against the Greens will be interesting to watch, especially as Khalil doesn't seem a great fit for the south of the seat.

Bendigo - one under-rated factor in Victoria becoming so much harder for the Coalition to win has been the trend in Victoria's provincial cities. This was for many years a classic marginal that flipped lots of different ways. Now it's basically unwinnable for the Liberals unless it's a landslide year in their favour. Which 2022 won't be.

Holt - on paper the margin for Labor here is safe. But Byrne is retiring and he seemed to have a very strong personal vote given that the area at the state level is fairly marginal. This won't be competitive this year, but the margin and swing will be interesting to watch.

Hawke - new seat based on Melbourne's satellite cities (Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh). Margin is safely Labor, and it would've comfortably voted Labor in past elections too so this should be an easy win for Labor. But could there be an above-average anti-Andrews backlash given the lack of a sitting MP?

Ballarat - it's crazy to think that this was won by the Liberals as recently as 1998. Labor have done an excellent job in turning what was previously a marginal seat into safe territory.

Maribyrnong - Bill Shorten's seat. This seat does have more genuinely marginal territory than is average for Western Melbourne so the margin could be interesting in the right circumstances. But there's no question about who wins this.

Corio - Geelong was competitive once upon a time, but it has since solidfied for Labor to go with the working-class north which has long been Labor. Fun fact - I know the Lib Dem candidate for the seat.

Hotham - on the 2019 boundaries, this could have been somewhat competitive in a better election for the Liberals. On the current ones.....

Lalor - safe Labor seat despite the dud local MP. Margin might be interesting to watch for any populist right backlash.

Gellibrand - as above (ignorning the dud local MP factor). The Point Cook area could be interesting as the area becomes more mature and desirable, but that's quite long-term.

Gorton - another safe Labor seat in the Western Suburbs. I feel like this seat could be prone to a high UAP vote, so the swing could be interesting.

Cooper - looks very safe, but the Greens candidate at the last election kind of imploded and the new one seems to be very strong so I would expect them to improve on 2019. But without Feeney I don't think the Greens can get as close as they did in 2016.

Fraser - safe Labor. The Footscray area is getting more Greeny so I think they could get some strong numbers there, but the rest of the seat is very working-class so it's unlikely to matter much.

Caldwell - very safe Labor. The area seems cooker friendly so the UAP vote here will be one to watch.

Scullin - the safest Labor seat full stop (though Cooper, Wills and Grayndler beat it if Labor vs. Liberal is used)

Indi - Helen Haines's seat. Her win was extremely rare as she was replacing another Independent under a similar movement (centrist-style politics with environmental concerns). Usually Independents improve their vote upon re-election quite significantly so I would expect a significant swing towards Haines....but her margin might come down to whether she gets smeared as a Labor stalking horse by the Coalition. Can't see her losing, though.

Melbourne - Bandt has this seat for as long as he wants. Were Bandt to retire the seat will likely be very close, but that won't come for a while and by that point who knows what the Labor party will look like.

So Labor gain one seat (Chisholm), the Greens gain one seat (Higgins), Zoe Daniel gains Goldstein and Rob Preistly gains Nicholls.

[DL]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

[Cassius]

The snippets of the second leader's debate featuring Albanese gave me PTSD flashbacks to when I would interview for jobs and internships in my late teens whilst hungover and having done no preparation beforehand.

[jaichind]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

But I thought that Morrison is still polling ahead of Albanese for preferred PM.  Would that not indicate the election is likely to be closer than 2 party preferred might indicate?

[Mike88]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

But I thought that Morrison is still polling ahead of Albanese for preferred PM.  Would that not indicate the election is likely to be closer than 2 party preferred might indicate?

The preferred PM polls have also narrowed a lot, and Albanese has been leading Morrison in some polls since early April. The last Ipsos poll has Albanese ahead of Morisson 41-36% for preferred PM.

[jaichind]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

But I thought that Morrison is still polling ahead of Albanese for preferred PM.  Would that not indicate the election is likely to be closer than 2 party preferred might indicate?

The preferred PM polls have also narrowed a lot, and Albanese has been leading Morrison in some polls since early April. The last Ipsos poll has Albanese ahead of Morisson 41-36% for preferred PM.

https://theconversation.com/labor-seizes-large-lead-in-newspoll-and-ipsos-impact-of-how-to-vote-cards-is-exaggerated-182323

Says that the latest Newspoll still has Morisson ahead of Albanese 44-42 even as Lab is ahead 54-46 in 2 party vote.

[Mike88]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

But I thought that Morrison is still polling ahead of Albanese for preferred PM.  Would that not indicate the election is likely to be closer than 2 party preferred might indicate?

The preferred PM polls have also narrowed a lot, and Albanese has been leading Morrison in some polls since early April. The last Ipsos poll has Albanese ahead of Morisson 41-36% for preferred PM.

https://theconversation.com/labor-seizes-large-lead-in-newspoll-and-ipsos-impact-of-how-to-vote-cards-is-exaggerated-182323

Says that the latest Newspoll still has Morisson ahead of Albanese 44-42 even as Lab is ahead 54-46 in 2 party vote.

Yes, of course, nonetheless, they have narrowed considerably compared with, for example, the beginning of this year or late last year. Looking from the outside, and this coming from someone who has just an average knowledge of Australian politics, I think that voters are not impressed with neither Albanese or Morrison, but because the Liberals have been in power for almost 10 years, plus Morisson is no longer a "new thing" like he was in 2019, Labor are much more likely to win this time. Like the saying goes: "Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them."

[jaichind]

Yes, of course, nonetheless, they have narrowed considerably compared with, for example, the beginning of this year or late last year. Looking from the outside, and this coming from someone who has just an average knowledge of Australian politics, I think that voters are not impressed with neither Albanese or Morrison, but because the Liberals have been in power for almost 10 years, plus Morisson is no longer a "new thing" like he was in 2019, Labor are much more likely to win this time. Like the saying goes: "Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them."

Totally agree.  My point is that given the preferred PM gap is a lot closer than the 2 party vote if the polls are going to be off they are going to off against the LAB.  Still, even in that case, I cannot see how LAB does not win the election only that it is not obvious that it will be a LAB landslide.

[DL]

Isn’t there a longtime bias towards the incumbent on the “best PM” question? For the Coalition to have a chance at winning Morrison would have to be beating Albo by like 20 points and the public would have had to have truly disqualified Albanese. That has clearly not happened.

I seem to recall that in 2019 Shorten was seen as a major liability to the ALP and he was always trailing by double digits on best PM...but the ALP only lost the 2PP by 51.5 to 48.5