Australia 2022 Election

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Beware the Ides of March April is very much the mood on the ground. ScoMo is putting off dropping the writs until just about the last possible day mandated by law thanks to a sticky lawsuit over NSW preselections that's going to the High Court.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ScoMo to visit the GG, has announced election will be officially called for May 21.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ScoMo has lasted so long because his only skill is his ruthlessness in internal party politicking. The party room is still united around him (...for five more weeks) because he's spent the last 4 years taking calculated decisions to unite the factions and protect his leadership. If only he could actually lead the country as well rather than buggering off to Hawaii...

The new rules aren't particularly relevant as a majority of the party can still force the leader to ""resign"" when their position becomes untenable. If a majority of your colleagues want you gone you cannot continue in your position for long, yet alone fight an election. All the new rules do is force all the internal bloodletting further behind closed doors and gets rid of the sudden midnight spills that cause awful PR.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think he was also seriously helped by Tony Abbott being defeated last election: that dude definitely was out for revenge.

Oh absolutely, hell hath no fury like Tony Abbott scorned. Another big benefit is the two members best placed to succeed him as leader (Dutton and Frydenberg) are both in marginal seats and have been rather distracted for the last year with constituency affairs as the national polling has tanked. On uniform swing they are in deep deep trouble and word on the ground backs that up. Even if they hold their seats on a wafer thin margin the party has no desire to repeat the Howard embarrassment.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Very cheap gotcha question by the journos but it's the sort of thing you need to anticipate and be prepared for. Meanwhile ScoMo also had a pretty poor day, debuting some sh**tty beer cans and insisting Alan Tudge is still a cabinet minister even though he isn't.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If Labor loses it's unlikely they'll try another NSW Left acolyte. Jim Chalmers is probably the best bet, especially if Labor loses because they fail to make the needed gains in Queensland. Marles is possible but unlikely as there's still a lot of rumours swirling around about the Victorian Right. If Labor had balls they'd try Penny Wong given how well she polls but SA Left Senator are three big disqualifiers for a potential leader.

On the Labor side it's a little bit trickier. Tanya Plibersek (my MP) was considered more of a favourite than Albanese last time, but chose not to run citing her young family. Strange that the same young family wasn't a barrier to being deputy leader for 6 years, or a minister before that.

Who on earth thought Plibersek was the favourite in 2019? The Guardian? She didn't run because she wasn't as acceptable to the Right and would've drawn a contested ballot with Chris Bowen, something both factions desperately wanted to avoid with the Rudd rules.
Albanese was already positioning himself for the leadership and had been since the July '18 by-elections.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If Labor loses it's unlikely they'll try another NSW Left acolyte. Jim Chalmers is probably the best bet, especially if Labor loses because they fail to make the needed gains in Queensland. Marles is possible but unlikely as there's still a lot of rumours swirling around about the Victorian Right. If Labor had balls they'd try Penny Wong given how well she polls but SA Left Senator are three big disqualifiers for a potential leader.

On the Labor side it's a little bit trickier. Tanya Plibersek (my MP) was considered more of a favourite than Albanese last time, but chose not to run citing her young family. Strange that the same young family wasn't a barrier to being deputy leader for 6 years, or a minister before that.

Who on earth thought Plibersek was the favourite in 2019? The Guardian? She didn't run because she wasn't as acceptable to the Right and would've drawn a contested ballot with Chris Bowen, something both factions desperately wanted to avoid with the Rudd rules.
Albanese was already positioning himself for the leadership and had been since the July '18 by-elections.

Plibersek was definitely considered more likely than Albanese initially. Albanese was at first considered a little old to be leader. Both Shorten and Gillard were prepared to back Plibersek. However, you’re probably right that her real reasons for not contesting were more to do with factional difficulties.

I’m a big Penny Wong fan, but having observed her as Senate leader she’s actually not a brilliant parliamentary performer in my view; something else that limits her chances of ever becoming leader. She’ll make a fantastic Foreign Minister though.

Being backed by both Shorten and Gillard was if anything a disadvantage! And any discussion of Penny Wong's prospects can't go without mentioning Don Farrell either.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And perhaps more importantly lockdowns we’re a state government decision with very little input from the Feds. As such if people were angry at lockdowns we would’ve seen it in recent state elections. Which we haven’t.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You’re both taking the debate slightly too seriously. It was broadcast on Sky getting their usual anemic ratings. Leader’s debates have never mattered in past elections and there’s no sign of that changing.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You’re both taking the debate slightly too seriously. It was broadcast on Sky getting their usual anemic ratings. Leader’s debates have never mattered in past elections and there’s no sign of that changing.

That comment about being blessed not to have disabled children is certainly making the rounds, though.

It’s just like any speech a politician gives. If you stay on script nobody cares but if you make a bad gaffe it’ll make the rounds of all the papers. Personally (as someone on the NDIS for Autism) I can see the point he thought he was making, and many would agree with it, but the way he worded it couched in his evangelical holier-than-thou was truly vile.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You’re both taking the debate slightly too seriously. It was broadcast on Sky getting their usual anemic ratings. Leader’s debates have never mattered in past elections and there’s no sign of that changing.

That comment about being blessed not to have disabled children is certainly making the rounds, though.

It’s just like any speech a politician gives. If you stay on script nobody cares but if you make a bad gaffe it’ll make the rounds of all the papers. Personally (as someone on the NDIS for Autism) I can see the point he thought he was making, and many would agree with it, but the way he worded it couched in his evangelical holier-than-thou was truly vile.

And then of course we have Hollie Hughes who grabbed the shovel with both hands and started digging even more.

It speaks volumes  that most of the socon foot-in-mouth problems of recent years have come from ScoMo’s centre-right faction rather than the conservative hard right faction. Hilarious that Dutton has got the traditional right go tone down social causes and focus on Law and Order/National Security while the NSW centre-right have taken over as resident bible bashers. Federal Liberal factions are so cursed.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Other than the fact that his church is now under investigation for child abuse, right?

Another example of people believing their own propaganda.  Hillsong isn't his church.

So it's fake news that he's been to Hillsong services multiple times?

He’s attended Hillsong churches a couple times but it’s not his church. Instead he attends Horizon Church which is more traditional Pentecostal and much more community based. Bit of a shame they renamed from ShireLive which was an obvious red flag they were nutty happy-clappy types (and that they’re aggressively from the shire)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Other than the fact that his church is now under investigation for child abuse, right?

Another example of people believing their own propaganda.  Hillsong isn't his church.

So it's fake news that he's been to Hillsong services multiple times?

Consider employing your critical thinking skills.

Now, we know that politicians attend religious services on a regular basis.  This does not mean that they are members of that congregation, or in any way affiliated with the religious denomination.

All it would take is a simple fact check - you could very easily find out which church Scott Morrison attends in his electorate, and it's not Hillsong - and you would not be spreading misinformation.  Take a moment and consider that if the sitting PM were in any way involved in the cover-up of child abuse at Hillsong church, then the media would be working its very hardest to investigate and expose that link.  This isn't happening because of some conspiracy; it's not happening because Morrison literally is not a member of Hillsong church.

You severely overestimate Australian media's desire to hold the Liberals accountable forn anything

Yes but not because they’re all Liberal shills (only The Oz is ideologically wedded to the Libs) but rather because holding politicians to account is boring and doesn’t sell newspapers. The Murdoch city tabloids and the West Aus just publish generic lower middle class suburbanite resentment.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Back on topic ScoMo was filmed texting throughout the dawn service (and no surprise he went to a dawn service in a marginal Labor seat).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Great analysis morgieb.

I know it's technically no longer a Coalition seat, but what are your thoughts on Hughes? I lived there at the last election and my parents and sister have moved there since so I still visit quite a lot. Very doubtful to me that Kelly gets up, but the factional squabbling that's gone on in NSW left the Libs without a candidate until the last minute, leaving them vulnerable in my opinion. Seemed the seat might have been ripe for an organised Independent campaign, but an inability of locals to settle on a candidate means there's two running - though Georgina Steele seems to have much more of a presence in posters and yard signs already.

Interestingly, Labor's original candidate had to withdraw due to dual citizenship, and I've just found out their new guy is Riley Campbell - an old mate of mine! Unfortunately I can't see him mounting a serious challenge; I suspect it will be between the Liberal and Steele.

Hughes is there. My thoughts are basically that the North Shore equivalent of that seat would be a write-off for the Libs given everything that has happened in the last year or so, but it might just be fundamentally conservative for the Libs to hold on. But Steele will give the seat a significant challenge.

A big difference from the North Shore is Hughes has a much higher solid Labor vote that an Independent needs to beat to get into the final top two. Such has been the obstacle for Independent candidates to overcome in marginal to borderline marginal seats for eternity. For an independent to win Hughes they’d need to push the Labor primary a good deal below 20% which is a very tall ask given how rock bottom it already is.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

3 of Tasmania's 5 seats are battlegrounds - Labor are targeting Braddon and Bass. Bass is particularly interesting given it's held on a knife edge by the Liberals, but the sitting member Bridget Archer is something of a backbench rebel who's crossed the floor a few times on hot-button issues. It'll be interesting if she garners any support from putting distance between herself and the unpopular government.

The latest I heard was that the Liberals were actually optimistic about holding both of those seats and were even targeting Labor-held Lyon, so it'll be a state to watch, definitely.

Franklin is safe Labor and morgieb summed up Wilkie's strength in Clark very well - he's one of the best MPs in the house and Clark are very lucky to have him.

Tassie Libs remain aggrieved by their failure in Lyons last election. Candidate selection was rushed and the eventual choice was disendorsed after islamophobic social media comments were found. A shamblolic effort by local Libs to push the Nats candidate failed and Labor skated through even though their primary vote fell to 36%.

Tasmania at federal elections is a black box that delights in swinging at random against the national trends (just look at the 80s!) but from what I’ve heard Tassie Libs are a putting on a brave face but both northern seats are on track to flip and Lyons firmimg up with it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

I'm curious where the seat would go without him ? gut instinct says it would be safe labour with the greens in second ?

Instincy is entirely correct as proven at state elections. Greens could be competitive if they got Libs preferences like they used to but those times have long passed.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

I'm curious where the seat would go without him ? gut instinct says it would be safe labour with the greens in second ?

Instincy is entirely correct as proven at state elections. Greens could be competitive if they got Libs preferences like they used to but those times have long passed.

Wait what ? I thought the Tree Tory phenomena was a newly emerging thing not something that has long since passed/

Was it mostly based on negative partisanship by the Liberal towards Labour, or did the greens have some actual attraction to liberal voters in the past ?

Nothing to do with ideology and all about how to vote cards. Both parties traditionally preference just about everyone bar total nutjobs above the other on the off chance something crazy happens, and that included Liberals consistently recommending preferencing Greens above Labor. That ended after their preferences elected Bandt in 2010, he backed Gillard and forced the Carbon Tax.

Victorian Libs broke the tradition first in their state election later that year and voters followed. Without that decision Greens would have beaten Labor in three seats (Melbourne, Brunswick and Richmond) and come very close in Northcote based off the preference flows from 2006. Just to illustrate the importance of HTV cards, in those four seats Liberal votes flowed 75% to the Greens in 2006 but flowed 68% to Labor in 2010.

And since 2010 Liberals have consistently preferenced Labor above the Greens, their voters have consistently followed and Greens have lost half a dozen lower house seats across the country because of it.

Bandt would survive in 2013 in spite of it and prove how impactful HTV cards are. In 2010 Liberal preferences flowed at an astounding 80% to Bandt, singlehandedly electing him. Come 2013 Liberal HTV cards preferenced Labor and Labor won 66% of Liberal preferences.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Historically the Labor party did do quite well in rural western NSW and Queensland, the party itself famously being founded in Barcaldine. But that rural strength went into terminal decline from the 50s to the 70s. It's oft forgotten but historic base of the Country Party wasn't the outback but the wealthier districts of the NSW north coast and northern Victoria.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And yeah, once upon a time Labor actually did really well in outback NSW.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Source of that map is Antony Green’s archived NSW election atlas. One of the few comprehensive Aussie historical political sources that’s ever been online. There’s also Adam Carr’s Psephos if you’re interested in Victoria. (hopefully someday someone will start comprehensively mapping stuff for Wikipedia but until then…).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Burt - this seat actually had a Liberal majority upon creation, which shows how much Labor had underperformed in WA in 2010 and 2013. Seat looks basically safe as things stand.

It's more a reflection of the massive personal vote Don Randall built up in Armadale over a decade and a half. Armadale saw a massive reversion to the mean in the 2015 by-election that was reflected in the newly drawn Burt.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Obviously special circumstances, but how many of those seats would have fallen if it was the same margin as the blowout state election?

Pretty sure someone crunched the numbers at the time and every seat would've voted Labor. Only O'Connor would be that close.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Is it a sign of desperation that the Liberals have wheeled out John Howard so much?

No they do this literally every election for some reason. Maybe it's Janette trying to get him out of the house?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Election live stream link.