Australia 2022 Election

[morgieb]

Getting ahead a bit, but who are the likely leaders of the party that loses?

Liberal: Frydenberg/Dutton battle, Frydenberg might be favoured but if the party "purges" a lot of the moderates (which I think Liberals want) then that favours Dutton. If one were to lose the other one would be earmarked as leader. If somehow both lose.....then I really have no idea. Taylor/Andrews, maybe?

Labor: I suspect Chalmers is the heir apparent. Only problem might be him in a leadership ballot, but that didn't hurt Shorten. I think Plibersek's time has past, Kenneally feels too toxic (and might not win her seat) and Marles too much of a lightweight.

[morgieb]

Is there any party that considers the horrifying, totalitarian Australian lockdowns a grave mistake and actually promises no more lockdowns? This would be my issue 1, 2, 3 etc. in Australia.

I mean pretty much everyone important outside of WA admit that it's time to move on....NSW and Vic are now saying "only isolate if you test positive" and masks have largely been scrapped.

In terms of being hard anti-lockdown, most of the minor right (especially the UAP and the LDP) seem to be pitching that way.

[morgieb]

Is there any party that considers the horrifying, totalitarian Australian lockdowns a grave mistake and actually promises no more lockdowns? This would be my issue 1, 2, 3 etc. in Australia.

I mean pretty much everyone important outside of WA admit that it's time to move on....NSW and Vic are now saying "only isolate if you test positive" and masks have largely been scrapped.

In terms of being hard anti-lockdown, most of the minor right (especially the UAP and the LDP) seem to be pitching that way.

I don't even think the UAP is right wing. I think their position is more or less 'whatever Clive Palmer thinks will help him'

Let's not kid ourselves, Clive Palmer is the leader of that party, not Craig Kelly.

Yes. But they at least seem to be advertising themselves as anti-COVID restrictions. Of course they're more just a disaffected populist party with a cooker-style wing.

[morgieb]

And perhaps more importantly lockdowns we’re a state government decision with very little input from the Feds. As such if people were angry at lockdowns we would’ve seen it in recent state elections. Which we haven’t.

TBF the two states that actually experienced proper lockdowns haven’t had state elections yet.

[morgieb]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Why do you blame Labor for this when it was very much a cross party thing?

I do think there's a difference between how Andrews handled COVID, and how Berejiklian did (to say nothing of Scotty). While Gladys was no let it ripper (despite what Drip Twitter insists), she did try to do a more conservative approach than most of the Labor Premiers.

Weighted against that though is that Gutwein and Marshall were quite hawkish as well (if nowhere near the same level as McGowan).

[morgieb]

Because I'm bored I'll do predictions for every seat as I did in 2013 and 2016. Will take me some time to do, this could change as the campaign rages.

Anyway, here's NSW Coalition seats:

Riverina - safe seat for the Nationals. Theoretically it could be viable turf for an Independent as the seat is pretty homogenous and McCormack isn't the most beloved politician, but no good one is running so....

Cook - alas, Scotty is safe here. The margin might be fun to watch as Morrison is far less popular now than what he was in 2019 and the margin seems kind of inflated (before 2013 it was generally a 60%-ish kind of seat), but yeah this won't be close.

Mitchell - this is another very safe seat for the Libs. It's not even a socially liberal kind of seat (quite the opposite) so I can't imagine any threat from the Teals. Hawke did have a bit of preselection trouble but that won't matter.

Parkes - if a Shooters candidate ran, this could be semi-interesting (they did very well in the area in the 2019 state election), but as it is it won't be, despite Broken Hill.

Bradfield - this was historically the Liberal's safest seat. It's not right now but it's still very safe.....but like most North Shore seats there is a progressive strain here that could make it semi-interesting for an Independent. With that said, it doesn't seem like Boele has had the same sort of attention as Tink, let alone Spender. So while I could see the margin be interesting, this shouldn't be competitive.

Berowra - another safe Liberal seat in the North Shore, and this one doesn't even have an Independent of note. Safe Liberal.

Lyne - another seat where the margin seems a tad inflated, but is still a safe seat for the Nationals unless a big name Independent runs, which doesn't seem to be happening.

New England - another safe Nationals seat unless there's a good Independent, no matter how much of an embarrassment Barnaby seems to be.

Calare - this seat is interesting as it used to be a genuine marginal (Labor held it in the Hawke/Keating years for example) and has some post-industrial terrority (Lithgow and surrounds) that should give Labor at least some kind of base. Yet in recent times it's been a safe seat and Lithgow has turned a long way right. And the rest of the seat is rock-solid National territory. Will be a Nationals hold.

Mackellar - now we get to the seats that might legitimately be a threat to the Teals. While Scamps probably isn't the most high-profile of them, she does seem to be getting her name out there. And Falinski isn't the most beloved candidate. Is there enough discontent for him to lose? Perhaps not, but it's certainly a seat to watch.

Hume - while Taylor isn't exactly a beloved incumbent, the seat should be safe enough for him to hold. Theoretically it could be vulnerable to an Independent but the seat seems a bit too disparate for one to win - it has traditional Coalition territory in the Southern Highlands, a working-class(ish) city in Goulburn and outer suburban territory around Camden and Narellan. Word on the street is that Ackery is running hard in the rural areas but hasn't made much inroads in the suburban part of seat.

Farrer - given Ley won a majority of the primary vote in 2019 despite strong Independent opposition, I can't see her losing without one. And on a Coalition/Labor basis, this is one of the safest seats in the country.

Hughes - this is Craig Kelly's seat. He of course quit the Coalition due to the party finally having enough of his anti-vaxxer nonsense. This is usually a safe Liberal seat (now anyways, it used to be a safe Labor seat funnily enough) but the whole drama about finding a new candidate has to bite, and it seems that whille Jenny Ware (the new Liberal candidate) is a decent fit for the seat and does have branch support, she's still struggling to find the right kind of funds to compete with a strong local Independent in Georgia Steele. I feel like a seat  like this feels more ideologically in line with the modern Liberal party compared to say Wentworth, but it sounds like the Liberals will have the fight of their life on their hands. Forced to call, I still expect the Liberals to hold.

Page - on paper this shouldn't be competitive, but the seat was a long-time marginal before a massive swing in 2019. While the massive swing does suggest that Hogan has a strong personal vote, I do wonder what the floods will mean in this seat as it was the main epicentre for the floods and Morrison's handling of it was not well regarded. Perhaps not a lot but I'd expect a fairly significant correction. This seat also has a decent Independent running, though I'm not sure how strong she is.

North Sydney - similar to Mackellar but the seat is even more inner city and the margin smaller so the maths is easier for Tink. I think Zimmerman might just about hold on, but he is in deep trouble and this will be a massive fight.

Bennelong - while the margin is biggish, there's a lot riding against the Liberals here. Firstly, there's the problems that the Liberals that are having in urban electorates. Secondly, the Chinese population here is massive and it seems like they're ripe for a massive swing vis a vis 2019. Thirdly, the sitting MP is retiring, who seemed to have at least some popular appeal. The new Liberal candidate seems rather weak and has come out as opposing vaccine mandates, which would bite in a highly-educated and diverse electorate. And Labor preselected the local mayor. For now, a very narrow Liberal hold but this has significant upset potential.

Cowper - in theory a safe seat (the 2000's version was semi-marginal but the boundaries are more National-leaning now with the addition of Port Macquarie) and Oakeshott isn't running this time. But there's a new Independent in Caz Heise who has genuine local appeal that should give the Nats a scare. How big of a one I'm not sure, especially because Conaghan should get a sophmore surge. But it's another headache for the Coalition.

Banks - historically Labor held, this seat eventually moved to the Coalition's hands thanks to a double whammy of demographic change around the Georges River (especially around Panania/Revesby) and the rightwards shift of the Chinese vote. It also feels like Coleman has worked the electorate well. While the second factor should see a rebound for Labor, the margin seems big enough and the electorate suburban enough that I don't see this one flipping back.

Lindsay - one to watch, there were some significant local factors that depressed the Labor vote here, but it's also much more of a Morrison Lib demographic than a Turnbull Lib one so it likely would've flipped anyway. McIntosh should get a sophmore surge which I think should be enough of a buffer against the general swing and a better local situation for the ALP, but it will still be close. One factor to watch will be the populist right vote, which is probably a bigger factor in this seat than others in Sydney.

Robertson - another classic marginal. Labor candidate seems quite strong, incumbent doesn't seem too remarkable either way. I guess Liberals might just hang on because this feels like a Morrison friendly area, but it's on a knives edge.

Reid - it's worth noting that this seat has little in the common with the one that was an ultra safe one for Labor for 80 years, rather it's basically the old Lowe. An interesting balance between the gentrified harbour suburbs, blue ribbon Strathfield and Labor-leaning minority areas in Burwood. However, much of the Liberal electorate here is a fairly inner city one and it's the sort of area that Morrison feels quite on the nose. While Fiona Martin can expect a sophmore surge and has done well to distant herself from some of the more toxic elements of the Liberal brand, it likely won't be enough.

Wentworth - thank god Kerryn Phelps isn't running again, else she'd get smashed. Although this electorate has some of the most expensive suburbs in the entire country there are large chunks of the seat that is basically the CBD....or at least more of a progressive vibe (Bondi). Spender also seems better connected than Phelps and the Libs are more hated now than they were in 2019. While the harbour booths will keep it close and Sharma's done a decent job of making himself look moderate, I think he goes down.

[morgieb]

Great analysis morgieb.

I know it's technically no longer a Coalition seat, but what are your thoughts on Hughes? I lived there at the last election and my parents and sister have moved there since so I still visit quite a lot. Very doubtful to me that Kelly gets up, but the factional squabbling that's gone on in NSW left the Libs without a candidate until the last minute, leaving them vulnerable in my opinion. Seemed the seat might have been ripe for an organised Independent campaign, but an inability of locals to settle on a candidate means there's two running - though Georgina Steele seems to have much more of a presence in posters and yard signs already.

Interestingly, Labor's original candidate had to withdraw due to dual citizenship, and I've just found out their new guy is Riley Campbell - an old mate of mine! Unfortunately I can't see him mounting a serious challenge; I suspect it will be between the Liberal and Steele.

Hughes is there. My thoughts are basically that the North Shore equivalent of that seat would be a write-off for the Libs given everything that has happened in the last year or so, but it might just be fundamentally conservative for the Libs to hold on. But Steele will give the seat a significant challenge.

[morgieb]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

[morgieb]

And now, the Labor (or non-major) held seats in New South Wales:

Macquarie - a very interesting seat in that it combines a safe Liberal seat (the Hawkesbury River towns/exurbs) with a safe Labor one (the Blue Mountains), along with a bit of marginal territory in the Lower Mountains. This of course makes it a very close seat that Labor have held thanks to an excellent local MP for the Mountains. For this reason I don't think it'll swing all that much, but I do think Templeman should hang on. Especially as all the floods in the north of the seat could see a swing against the Libs there.

Eden-Monaro - everyone's favourite bellweather up until 2016, it has stayed Labor thanks to an excellent candidate in Mike Kelly. When he retired it looked like a massive headache for Labor but picking the local mayor from a bushfire affected region was enough to hang on. Will be interesting to see how she's worked the seat since then. Again, I expect it to be close but I think Labor hang on. Especially given what happened in the area in the recent by-elections.

Dobell - classic marginal. It's usually a Labor-leaning seat, but it's not exactly so safe that Labor can ignore it. With the way 2022 is likely to behave I don't expect this to be that interesting, but the margin should still be tight and I could see an upset if the election mood changes.

Gilmore - the only seat to go Coalition -> Labor in 2019 when taking into account redistribution factors. So that makes it an interesting seat to start with. This probably only flipped because the Libs made the mistake of picking Warren Mundine. This time they preselected a popular state MP in Andrew Constance. However it's worth noting Constance's state seat doesn't have that much in common with this federal seat and Phillips has apparently worked the seat well. Constance also had one of the more difficult portfolio's in state politics where his legacy isn't all that glowing. Add that the margin isn't insignificant especially given that 2022 is likely to see a swing back to Labor and I think Phillips hangs on. I could see a counterswing though.

Greenway - an interestingly balanced seat between the Labor-friendly south around Blacktown and new rich suburbs up north which are swingier. The north is growing and becoming more Liberal-friendly which doesn't help Labor. Overall I expect a Labor hold though if the working-class areas see a major party revolt which has been hinted at this is worth watching.

Hunter - for the first time in forever this became a swing seat after a massive swing thanks to coal policy. Labor MP now retiring and the coal politics haven't changed. Still, a 3% swing isn't exactly easy when the country is swinging 3% the other way....and it's worth noting that the tightness of the election had a lot to do with ONP preferences, and the previous One Nation candidate was quite strong - he is now running as an Independent. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if this is an against the grain gain even as Labor win 90 seats or this returns to safety. I guess I'll tip a Labor hold as I don't think Central Queensland would be behaving like it allegedly is if coal was going to ruin Labor in working-class areas.

Parramatta - marginal seat. Labor's chances not helped by the sitting MP retiring, parachuting a candidate that isn't a local and an ex-Labor mayor running on a quasi-populist message. However, it's a fairly polarised seat which probably inhibits any potential swing and it's also possible that the way the Libs went about the last lockdown will breed resentment amongst voters they have to win. Given that the margin for this seat isn't that tight, a probable Labor hold though the swing will likely be small (or the other way).

Richmond - unless this area has a massive trend towards anti-vax style parties (which I guess is possible given that the seat is full of hippies), this won't vote National. The question is whether the Greens could pick it up. The swing for the Greens to win it is quite large (like around 6%) so I'm skeptical. Might be interesting if major party votes really tank, though.

Shortland - another Hunter area seat that suddenly became semi-marginal out of nowhere, though the seat has had a longer-term Liberal trend. It's not really a coal electorate so I'm not convinced there's enough movement left, though the margin will be interesting to watch.

Paterson - interesting one - this used to be a Liberal-leaning seat but the addition of Kurri Kurri and surrounds and the removal of the Mid-North Coast has made this a generally Labor-leaning one. Unlike Hunter Labor's vote in its industrial heartlands was still rather strong so there might be more room for a swing, but I'm dubious on Labor losing this one.

Werriwa - this seat has become a lot more marginal in recent years, which I think is linked to the suburbs west of the M7 growing substanially. Still fairly safe regardless. The next redistribution will be interesting to watch though.

McMahon - another seat that seems to have a road as divider between safe Labor areas and more marginal ones. Should be safe for 2022 though it's another seat where the long-term trend might be with the Liberals.

Macarthur - on current boundaries this is a fairly safe seat, and you've also got a local MP who seems to have a strong personal vote. Will be interesting to watch after the next redistribution, as the 1993-2013 version was generally a Liberal seat.

Kingsford Smith - this was threatening to be close for a while, but trends in inner-city areas has since returned the seat to safety.

Barton - it's interesting that this seat has actually trended quite strongly Liberal when redistributions are taken into account, but I guess the nature of the Chinese vote has influenced that and I guess McClelland had a decent personal vote. This won't be close in 2022, though.

Whitlam - safe seat, though it is interesting that Wollongong is still very solid for Labor when large chunks of the Hunter has moved right given how similar the core Labor vote has been in the areas.

Chifley - the margins (like a lot of the whiter bits of Western Sydney) will be worth watching, but realistically the question is whether Labor get 60% or 70%.

Cunningham - see Whitlam, but this is safer as it does not have a chunk of the Southern Highlands giving the Coalition a small base.

Watson - another safe Labor seat in Western Sydney. I guess the populist percentage might be worth watching?

Newcastle - it's interesting that this seat did not swing at all last year when the rest of the Hunter saw very aggressive swings towards the Coalition. I guess the seat being more of an inner-city electorate rather than a coal mining/industrial one (and the presence of a major university) influences that. Obviously a safe Labor seat.

Fowler - on paper a very safe Labor seat. However the sitting MP is retiring and Labor decided to parachute Kristina Keneally is. Given that she has no links to Liverpool, she's not Vietnamese (which Hayes's anoited successor was and this being such a Vietnamese heavy electorate) and she's quite the immigration hawk, this did not go down well. On a Labor/Liberal basis this wouldn't have been enough....but Dai Le is running as an Independent and she does have a strong local appeal/profile. Is that enough for Keneally to lose? I'm not sure. My guess is that she narrowly hangs on, but with Labor's majority slashed to ribbons.

Blaxland - another ultra-safe Labor seat in Western Sydney, most famous for being the seat of a man with fine cultural tastes and an ultra-sharp wit.

Grayndler - Albo's seat....also mine. This is safe but I will be interested in seeing what the margin is. Albanese has moved a fair way right since becoming the Opposition Leader so I could see a few Green-leaning voters who gave Albanese a personal vote moving towards the Greens. That won't be enough to make it interesting, though. But one way or another, in 2025 I could see it being very interesting as the area at the state level is very strongly Green.

Sydney - as things stand this is a very safe seat for Labor. Were Plibersek to retire the Greens vote would be interesting to watch, but the area feels slightly less left-friendly than Grayndler so I'm not convinced it would doom Labor here.

Warringah - this was Tony Abbott's seat. He of course lost in 2019 in a landslide after proving too controversial for an electorate that had some progressive leans and finding a strong candidate to run against him. In theory Steggall should've been vulnerable to a Liberal more in tune with the seat, but instead the Libs preselected a far-right culture warrior. So yeah, Steggall's majority will increase.

So Labor gain one seat (Reid) and one other seat (Wentworth) goes Indie. Interestingly there does seem to be a lot of seats where the Coalition might have hopes of gaining, but I don't see them doing so in 2022 unless I get the nature of the year dead wrong.

[morgieb]

I do think the Coalition will end up winning. A decade of Liberal government and nothing accomplished.

This feels a weird election to assess. Not sure whether 2019 trauma is to blame or whether it's because of how people see the candidates (Scotty disliked but approvals holding up better than you'd might expect and Albo not really being seen positively) but I honestly have no idea where this could go. I could see the Coalition pulling it out of the fire, I could see Labor winning in a landslide.

Most likely result seems a narrow Labor majority but it's certainly not something I feel comfortable prediciting.

[morgieb]

What are the minority government scenarios here? What numbers do labours/collation require for a minority government?

It depends on the size of the crossbench. As for who the crossbenchers might back:

* Bandt - will support Labor
* Wilkie - supported Labor in 2010, and holds a left-wing electorate. Will support Labor.
* Katter - should support the Coalition, but does seem friendly with Albanese and the state party are on decent enough terms with the ALP.
* Sharkie - has hinted she'll back the Coalition.
* Steggall - unclear. Has hinted that she might back the Coalition if Morrison goes, but that seems unlikely. Her big issues seem ones that Labor will advocate for better than the Coalition.
* Haines - no idea. Maybe Coalition as her seat is usually a conservative one.

As for the Teals - see Steggall. Le was ex-Coalition so might back them for that reason, but her seat (if she wins it) would otherwise be safe Labor.....

Any other Indies I've missed?

So if one party reaches 74, they'll hold minority government. 73 and under and it's a complete lottery. Maybe the party that wins the most seats will win, but it'll be unstable as hell and the chances of there being another election soon afterwards will skyrocket.

[morgieb]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

FTR the Oz equivalents of Islington et al vote Labor too….mostly by massive margins as well.

[morgieb]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

FTR the Oz equivalents of Islington et al vote Labor too….mostly by massive margins as well.

Which singular electoral division do you think is most likenable to Islington?

I haven’t been to Islington so I can’t say….but I get big Grayndler vibes from similar areas (Camden, Shoreditch).

Possibly also those Inner North electorates? (Wills, Cooper)

[morgieb]

The other issue is that the Australian population is far more concentrated in state capitals than in other countries, Queensland aside. If the Liberals wrote off Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth they would mathematically be locked out of rule in those states.

Australia is one of the worlds most urbanised countries, that means that any competitive party has to be able to win over urban voters.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?t=Australia_house_of_representatives
I toyed with this, created a "Bogans and Miners Party" colored purple, gave it everything besides the insets, and ended up with only 48 seats, roughly 60% the amount needed for a majority.
And that's already including many districts located along the coast that are basically urban, and outer metropolitan.

Stuff like this is why I always get confused when people assume a GOP-style party would do well in Australia. The Coalition hold far more upper-class "liberal" electorates than Labor do Red Wall style ones. Even the likes of Newcastle are still largish cities....

[morgieb]

Worth noting that the origins of the ALP are traced back to a strike of Queensland sheep shearers (the same strike that inspired "Waltzing Matilda"). As I said though, Queensland is an exceptional state, given its heavy regionalisation, which has made it uniquely radical

As for other left wing small towns, I guess there's Whyalla in South Australia?

Examples of left-wing small towns would be:

* Gladstone
* Rockhampton (though that voted LNP in 2019)
* Bundaberg (historically anyway, still can vote Labor at the state level)
* Mackay (as above)
* Byron Bay (though obviously the Left's strength here is far less historical)
* Kurri Kurri/Weston
* Cessnock
* Maitland
* Lithgow
* Broken Hill
* Queanbeyan
* Morwell/Moe (see Bundaberg/Mackay)
* Whyalla
* Port Augusta (see Bundaberg et al)
* Collie

There's probably more. But with the exception of Byron and Queanbeyan all are largely based on primary industries. Mount Isa might also count without the Katter factor.

And yeah, once upon a time Labor actually did really well in outback NSW.

[morgieb]

To restart my predictions, here's Victoria:

Nicholls - on paper, this is a very safe Nationals seat. But the sitting MP is retiring which has allowed for a three-cornered contest and there also is a very strong Independent running. Although the impression of Independents attacking safe Coalition seats seems to be an urban one, an under-rated recent factor is that the Nats are under threat in some of their heartlands as well. This looks to be very close and given how many visits Joyce has had to the seat I think the Nats know it. Although I'm slightly weary of seeing another Kevin Mack situation, I think Preistly wins this.

Gippsland - it's crazy to think that this seat was extremely close as recently as the Howard Years on the current boundaries. I guess that shows what's happened in the Latrobe Valley recently. There's probably room for a swing but it seems like Chester has nailed down the seat and this is obviously safe.

Mallee - although population decline means that the seat is no longer the safest in Australia (which it was for a while), this is still a very safe Nationals seat and without a big-name Independent running will remain so. The primary votes in 2019 were very odd but was probably influenced by the sitting MP retiring.

Wannon - another safe rural seat for the Coalition, though this one is Liberal held rather than Nationals held. Alex Dyson ran well here in 2019 so his vote might be one to watch, maybe? Long-term the seat could start to get interesting as the Surf Coast grows and seachanger factors rise but that's probably still another generation away.

Aston - on paper, a safe Liberal seat. But Labor came close here in 2010 (and extremely close on the current boundaries) and Tudge has had a lot of problems with an affair and some bullying allegations. I don't think it'll be enough to sink him especially as the area has trended right long-term, but the swing will be interesting to watch and it might be pushed into marginal territory.

Goldstein - historically this was as blue-ribbon of a seat as you could get in Melbourne. But the area is quite progressive these days and in 2018 I think Labor would've won the seat assuming state boundaries were extrapolated to federal ones. Tim Wilson is a bit of a controversial incumbent without much personal support and he is now facing a very strong Teal Independent in Zoe Daniel. It's possible that her bubble might've burst too early, but I think as things stand she wins the seat.

Menzies - I think this is probably the most secure seat for the Coalition in urban Melbourne. It's not really a culturally progressive seat akin to some of the other blue-ribbon Melbourne-based seats, and while there's no sitting MP Andrews was a controversial figure so in some ways they may be better off not having him as their MP.

Monash - again another seat I think should be secure, though like Wannon I could see the long-term trend be interesting as some of the dormitory towns grow and the Bass Coast seems ripe for seachange style voters.

Flinders - interesting one. Historically it's a fairly safe seat but the seat did become semi-close in 2019. There's a fair bit of demographic similarity between this and the Golden Triangle seats and Greg Hunt is retiring which makes things hard for the Libs. An advantage they gained was a leading Independent in Despi O'Connor being caught out on s44 breaches and having to suspend her campaign - without it I think she would've made the seat very close. I'm not sure if it's ready to vote Labor - my guess is that Labor narrowly miss out - but it does have boilover potential especially if Labor are doing very well.

Kooyong - is Josh Frydenberg the new Michael Portillo? That might be the key question of the night. The area is very blue-ribbon but also quite culturally progressive, and there was already a lot of bleeding in 2019. And he's got the fight of his life against Monique Ryan and this is a seat where Morrison is clearly on the nose. So this will be very close. Forced to call, I think Frydenberg just about hangs on through sheer bile, but this is about as close to a pure toss-up as you can get.

La Trobe - it's worth noting that this is no longer the same seat that was a classic marginal for so many years - it swapped Labor-friendly territory in the Dandenong Ranges for the Pakenham area as well as some Liberal voting rural areas. So the seat is a bit safer for the Libs than the old one (even in 07/10 this would've been held fairly comfortably on current boundaries). However it's also worth noting that the population of the seat was much smaller back then than it is now as the Pakenham area has grown, and it's hard to think of a a seat that was more perfectly designed to be a marginal than this. Something like 70% of the seat is experiencing mortgage stress so CoL issues will bite here. I think this will probably remain a Liberal hold, but it remains a seat to watch.

Deakin - another seat where boundary changes haven't been favourable to Labor, turning the previous marginal into a Liberal-leaning electorate with the marginal Blackburn being swapped with the Liberal-voting Croydon. So on current boundaries Labor wouldn't have won it in 2007 or 2010. It doesn't seem like Labor are making much of an effort to flip this so I don't think it goes, but it should be tight.

Casey - this is basically the Melbourne version of Macquarie at this point combining a treechangery Labor-leaning area (the Dandenongs) with Liberal voting outer suburbs. The balance is more in favour of the Lilydale/Mooroolbark area than the Dandenongs though so that helps the Liberals. However Tony Smith is retiring and the Liberal candidate to replace him doesn't seem particularly strong. The polarised nature of the seat probably helps especially as the northern part of the seat seems Morrison friendly. So close, but no cigar for Labor.

Higgins - looks horrifically vulnerable, but there are a couple of factors that might help Allen - she now has the advantage of being the incumbent and has at least tried to differentiate herself from more standard Liberals, while the Labor candidate has made a name for herself for her anti-AstraZeneca campaigning, which could easily smear her as an anti-vaxxer. So it'll come down to party or candidate most likely. There's also the factor of the Greens, who hold the state seat of Prahran and were close to finishing in the Top 2 here last time. Will be close, but I'll tip a Greens gain.

Chisholm - on paper, this should be gone. But Liu is a very tough campaigner and unlike 2019 Labor's candidate isn't Chinese, so she may have the benefits of an unaffected ethnic vote this time around. Labor have also gone dirty to try and attack her, which is a sign that they think this is very close and it also has the risk of backfiring. All in all, I think the margin is too small for the Libs to hold this....but the swing might be somewhat muted.

[morgieb]

And....Victorian Labor/other seats:

Corangamite - interesting one. This seat is basically a suburban Geelong one at this point with some seachanger influence. Given the demographics I have a hard time seeing this seat flip but supposedly the Liberals are semi-confident. Their candidate is very well-known in the swingier part of the electorate which might help? But I suspect it will stay Labor.

Dunkley - historically Liberal held, this seat shed a large chunk of Liberal territory before 2019 to become more overtly based on Frankston turning it into a Labor seat. There has been talk that Andrews is on the nose in suburban Melbourne which might cause headaches for Labor given that the seat is still quite marginal. But it doesn't sound like the Libs are too confident here, so I suspect this stays Labor.

McEwen - I think if there is an anti-Andrews backlash in the suburbs, it'll be most keenly felt in the North which seems the most anti-lockdown part of Melbourne. This is the only North/West Melbourne seat that is remotely marginal so it's probably the only seat to watch for that effect, and it does sound like the Liberals are optimistic here. Still, a 5% margin is large....very large when the rest of the country is likely to swing the other way. And the sitting MP is recontesting so there'll be no loss of personal vote to influence a swing here. So  even if it swings Liberal, this should stay Labor.

Jagajaga - this is a strange seat. Some legitimately inner-city areas, some very working-class areas, some wealthy suburbs. Overall this generally balances out to a safe enough Labor seat. Will stay Labor.

Macnamara - I remember thinking Labor was doomed here once Danby retired after the 2016 results. Strong performances in inner-city areas in 2019 however helped Labor, and it seems likely that this part of the world will continue to trend Labor medium-term. A complicating factor will be the Greens, who were about 7% behind Labor in 2019. If there is a significant leftie backlash towards Labor it could hit here. But it doesn't seem like the Greens are that optimistic of flipping it, and I think Labor's position against the Greens should be safe enough.

Isaacs - given the election this should be safe Labor, especially as the Liberal candidate has a few problems with lying about residency. In future elections I could see this being tight as much of the territory is classic marginal territory at the state level, but this doesn't apply to 2022 and will obviously be future election dependent.

Bruce - it's crazy to think how much the seat has changed in the last few years. The historic version combined Dandenong with Glen Waverley, then it became a purely Dandenong seat, now it has the Narre Warren area to go with Dandenong. In this time it's gone from a Labor-leaning seat to a very safe Labor one to a fairly safe Labor one. Unless it keeps moving east this should be Labor-held in the long-term.

Wills - an interestingly balanced seat between traditional working-class areas in the north of the seat and inner-city progressive areas in the south. This should stay Labor for this election but the margin against the Greens will be interesting to watch, especially as Khalil doesn't seem a great fit for the south of the seat.

Bendigo - one under-rated factor in Victoria becoming so much harder for the Coalition to win has been the trend in Victoria's provincial cities. This was for many years a classic marginal that flipped lots of different ways. Now it's basically unwinnable for the Liberals unless it's a landslide year in their favour. Which 2022 won't be.

Holt - on paper the margin for Labor here is safe. But Byrne is retiring and he seemed to have a very strong personal vote given that the area at the state level is fairly marginal. This won't be competitive this year, but the margin and swing will be interesting to watch.

Hawke - new seat based on Melbourne's satellite cities (Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh). Margin is safely Labor, and it would've comfortably voted Labor in past elections too so this should be an easy win for Labor. But could there be an above-average anti-Andrews backlash given the lack of a sitting MP?

Ballarat - it's crazy to think that this was won by the Liberals as recently as 1998. Labor have done an excellent job in turning what was previously a marginal seat into safe territory.

Maribyrnong - Bill Shorten's seat. This seat does have more genuinely marginal territory than is average for Western Melbourne so the margin could be interesting in the right circumstances. But there's no question about who wins this.

Corio - Geelong was competitive once upon a time, but it has since solidfied for Labor to go with the working-class north which has long been Labor. Fun fact - I know the Lib Dem candidate for the seat.

Hotham - on the 2019 boundaries, this could have been somewhat competitive in a better election for the Liberals. On the current ones.....

Lalor - safe Labor seat despite the dud local MP. Margin might be interesting to watch for any populist right backlash.

Gellibrand - as above (ignorning the dud local MP factor). The Point Cook area could be interesting as the area becomes more mature and desirable, but that's quite long-term.

Gorton - another safe Labor seat in the Western Suburbs. I feel like this seat could be prone to a high UAP vote, so the swing could be interesting.

Cooper - looks very safe, but the Greens candidate at the last election kind of imploded and the new one seems to be very strong so I would expect them to improve on 2019. But without Feeney I don't think the Greens can get as close as they did in 2016.

Fraser - safe Labor. The Footscray area is getting more Greeny so I think they could get some strong numbers there, but the rest of the seat is very working-class so it's unlikely to matter much.

Caldwell - very safe Labor. The area seems cooker friendly so the UAP vote here will be one to watch.

Scullin - the safest Labor seat full stop (though Cooper, Wills and Grayndler beat it if Labor vs. Liberal is used)

Indi - Helen Haines's seat. Her win was extremely rare as she was replacing another Independent under a similar movement (centrist-style politics with environmental concerns). Usually Independents improve their vote upon re-election quite significantly so I would expect a significant swing towards Haines....but her margin might come down to whether she gets smeared as a Labor stalking horse by the Coalition. Can't see her losing, though.

Melbourne - Bandt has this seat for as long as he wants. Were Bandt to retire the seat will likely be very close, but that won't come for a while and by that point who knows what the Labor party will look like.

So Labor gain one seat (Chisholm), the Greens gain one seat (Higgins), Zoe Daniel gains Goldstein and Rob Preistly gains Nicholls.

[morgieb]

I'm surprised there is so little polling in Australia compared to other countries. In Canada in the recent federal election there were literally 3 or 4 national polls released every day of the campaign with several daily trackers etc... In the UK as well every day of a campaign you have multiple polls. Ditto for the recent French elections. But in Australia its just two polls PER WEEK and that's it! Any explanation?
 

In fairness it’s more like 4-5 different pollsters per week.

Wonder if 2019 has something to do with it?

[morgieb]

What happens with the Liberal leadership if both Dutton and Frydenburg lose their seats?

Clusterf**k.

The next most senior people in the Liberal party are Greg Hunt and Simon Birmingham....the former is retiring, the latter is a Senator and lacks an obvious Lower House seat to run in after the election. Alan Tudge is basically done for having been found out for having an affair and (allegedly) paying $500k worth of hush money, amongst other allegations - plus he's also been MIA throughout the campaign. Angus Taylor has his fans but there's enough innuendo about him that an ICAC would almost certainly sink him. Paul Fletcher is probably too boring and too moderate. Sussan Ley also has a corruption query (IIRC) and could struggle for traction given she represents a rural electorate (and is also over 60). Michaella Cash is also a Senator and would basically be the equivalent of Carly Fiorina leading the Republican party - that is to say under her the party would get smashed.

So you're down to people like Dan Tehan, Karen Andrews and Stuart Robert. Who all seem like complete non-entities and would probably be the least inspiring leaders of all-time. I guess Alex Hawke could have a shot and he seems to be playing the game the right way but would he have the popular appeal?

[morgieb]

And...Queensland:

Maranoa - the safest seat in the country. So yeah. The One Nation/assorted populist right vote might be interesting to see, especially as they've finished second here in the last two elections. But probably not too interesting.

Groom - another ultra-safe seat, and this one doesn't even have the same kind of far-right appeal.

Moncrieff - this is another safe seat based on the most glitzy bits of the Gold Coast (hence making it a bit safer than the other two seats)

Dawson - yes, this seat was Labor held as recently as the last decade. And before 2019 it was a genuine marginal, showing how dire the results were for Labor in Central Queensland. While a swing back should be expected, the margin looks big enough that the LNP should be safe here. Christensen's retirement and his err...questionable run for One Nation might make their vote depressingly high.

Wright - another safe LNP seat in rural Queensland. Traditionally the seat is very far-right friendly so I would expect the ONP vote here to be high. But not high enough to put the seat in any doubt.

Hinkler - on paper this is a safe LNP seat. However the state Labor party got massive swings in some of the state seats here in the most recent election.....I don't think that would be enough to change the complexion of the seat, but a run from ex-LNP local member Jack Dempsey just might. Certainly it seems like the LNP are concerned. I think he's probably left his run too late, but I can easily him getting into second and from there you have an excellent chance so as long as populist right preferences don't flow too strongly to the LNP.

Fadden - another safe LNP seat in the Gold Coast.

Fairfax - yawn.....if only Kevin Rudd had ran here, that would've at least spiced things up (though Labor correctly understood it would've been too much of a distraction).

Wide Bay - the area has done some interesting things at the recent state election (Noosa is currently held by a leftish Independent, while Bruce Sanders has a massive majority in the generally conservative-leaning Maryborough), so in the right circumstances I could see the seat being interesting. But this is still a safe seat and there doesn't appear to be a big name Independent challenger.

Fisher - oddly Labor did rather well in the state election here so there might be a swing. But this should be safe LNP. At least Andrew Wallace doesn't seem as corrupt as Brough and Slipper were.

Capricornia - not only was this held by Labor less than ten years, they actually got over 60% of the vote as recently as 2007 (admittedly a high-water mark for Queensland Labor, but still.....). That it's now not only LNP held but very safely so is a catastrophe. Obviously the Adani saga didn't help (it was very marginal coming into 2019), but the margin is so big that it would require a massive correction for this to flip back. It does sound like Labor are paying at least some attention to it, but I can't see this one flipping back.

McPherson - this somehow has a smaller margin than Capricornia, when suggesting that it would have a smaller LNP margin than that seat as recently as a decade ago would've called for the men in the white coats. Seat is basically safe LNP.

Bowman - another fairly safe LNP seat, although like a few of them state Labor do fairly well here. Would've been interesting to see what would've happened if Andrew Laming ran again.

Flynn - this is similar to Dawson and Capricornia as another seat that was victim to the Central Queensland coal swing, but unlike those two the swing wasn't so big in 2019 that the seat is now unwinnable for Labor, and Labor chose a much better candidate here than those two seats. I'm still a bit skeptical for Labor's chances of winning it as there's still a lot of ultra-safe LNP farming territory here, but I think this should at least return to marginal territory and be within striking distance for future Labor wins.

Forde - I have no idea what happened here in 2019. It wasn't even a coal seat so it turning from a ultra-marginal to a safe seat in one election feels weird. I can see a large swing back, but it doesn't feel like Labor are too interested here so I think it probably remains LNP.

Petrie - from a seat that Labor nearly held in 2013 to a safe-ish seat by 2019. I guess that shows the power of personal votes. This has long been a bellweather so if this is a big win for Labor there might be a strong swing towards them. But like a few Queensland based ex-marginals, it doesn't sound like Labor are too optimistic here.

Herbert - Shorten won here in 2016, showing just how bad 2019 was for Queensland Labor. This is another seat where a swing back can be expected, but it doesn't sound too likely that Labor win this one especially given Thompson will get a sophmore surge.

Bonner - this is another marginal seat that stopped being so in 2019, but unlike most of them the writing was on the wall before 2019 with much of the seat seeing an increased Christian Right influence (IIRC). There should be a swing back here as the seat still contains some fairly solidly Labor territory but I don't imagine it'll be enough for Labor to win.

Ryan - unlike most of Queensland, this moved significantly towards Labor in 2019, showing how urban the seat is. While Simmonds might be a sophmore surge, it's clear that Morrison's LNP is on the nose hard here. Oddly there doesn't seem to an obvious Teal candidate as I think one would've won the seat fairly comfortably, but it's still tight enough that Labor and the Greens can hope to win. This is probably as close as you can get to a seat that all three parties can win......I'll be bold and tip a Greens gain.

Brisbane - a lot of what I wrote about Ryan also applies here. The difference between the two seats is that Ryan is traditionally a safe LNP seat, while Brisbane has a long Labor history. While that suggests a seat that is trending LNP, current issues do not favour them in Queensland. I think given the way the country is moving, this one is gone for the LNP. Whether it flips to Labor or the Greens is another question....had Bartlett stayed on as their candidate I'd say the Greens, but they don't seem to be running as hard here as they are in Ryan and Griffith....so I'll tip a Labor gain though the exclusion order will be tight.

Dickson - Peter Dutton's seat. Oddly compared to 2019 this one feels quite under the radar, which is very strange given that the seat is still pretty marginal and pretty much everyone in the Labor party (or non-Libs in general) would love to see Dutton lose. Perhaps the 2019 experience burned them? Or are Labor fearful of nationalising it too much? Might still flip if the night is bad enough, but the lack of Labor interest makes me think that Dutton will hold on.

Leichhardt - marginal seat. Unlike most of rural Queensland this one did not zoom right in 2019 (which might have something to do with Cairns's economy being quite different to areas further south). Frankly I think the only thing that's saved the LNP here is Warren Entsch's appeal. Is his personal vote enough to see him hold on? I think so - just. But would be far from surprised to be wrong.

Longman - the other surprise 2016 Labor gain in Queensland. Looking at the primary votes the thing that sunk Labor though was One Nation preferences....so hardly a sign that the party is massively on the nose here. And state results here were very grim for the LNP. All reports suggest that the seat is very close. While a sophmore surge might help Young, he's apparently a pretty uninspiring incumbent and I think Labor narrowly flip this back as things stand. Not a done deal though.

[morgieb]

Lilley - on paper, this is a very marginal seat. But the seat strikes me as the sort of seat where the natural swing is structurally low and Annika Wells should enjoy a new personal vote. In any case, what hopes the Liberals had of flipping this probably went out the window once the LNP's candidates follies with residency was exposed.

Blair - another seat that was very close in 2019, though this one was safe after 2016. What could concern Labor is that the Ipswich area was still pretty sold in 2019 and the rural areas aren't exactly ALP-friendly so a swing back might not be completely certain. But given the nature of the year, I'll be shocked if this flips.

Moreton - similar-ish case to Lilley, a low-swinging kind of marginal. For that reason the margin might not blow out, but given the year a loss is basically implausible.

Griffith - on paper the margin is tight, but given the year and the nature of the seat I can't see the LNP going close here. What could be interesting is the Greens - while the gap between them and Labor isn't that small, the Greens candidate here is an excellent one and they are sounding very optimistic here, especially after what happened to Jackie Trad. All in all I think the gap between Labor and the Greens is just about big enough for them to hold on, but the party does not sound at all confident and this will be very tight.

Oxley - probably one of the few Queensland based seats that should be safe for Labor no matter what. Expect the margin to increase here.

Rankin - as above

Kennedy - safe for Katter. Were he to depart this seat could get rather interesting, but the KAP control all the state seats here so it's likely one of them will continue to hold this electoral fifedom in perpetuity.

So Labor gain Brisbane and Longman, Greens gain Ryan. Given the way Queensland behaves if this night turns nasty for the Coalition there could be some surprise flips, but I don't have the balls to tip them.

[morgieb]

On a more general point, why have far-right parites been so uniquely electorally successful in australia compared to other  anglo countries ?

Have they, though? I'd argue the UKIP/Brexit has done better than our populist right parties, and the US's main center-right party is basically a fascist one at this point. One Nation is not that big....

Canada....well look at Quebec. Admittely Anglophone Canada is pretty anti far-right, but equally it's not like their Tories are that moderate.

New Zealand - New Zealand First can be considered a right-wing populist party, although Winnie is admittedly a lot more moderate on fiscal matters than Pauline (he's also Maori which makes the racial debate differ).

Ireland - how many immigrants actually live in Ireland?

[morgieb]

On a less flippant point though, I think there's two key factors:

* Size of the country, both in terms of population and literal size. Mining for example I think is a much bigger industry here than in New Zealand or even Canada. In recent times a lot of right-wing populism has been linked to protecting primary industries to own the environmentalists....certainly it feels like right-wing populist parties have done relatively well in mining areas. Also I think Australia being big and so close to Asia made it a popular destination for asylum seekers compared to NZ/Canada.

* The Aboriginal question. In Australia the land was viewed as being terra nullius before the concept was overturned in Mabo. New Zealand, not really the case. My impression in New Zealand is that indigenous and settler relations seems to be a lot healthier traditionally than in Australia, and if it wasn't for Mabo-related questions I don't think Hansonism would've taken off.

Canada is a more complex question. It does seem like multiculturalism is more accepted there than in Australia. Part of it I think is down to the way right-wing populism evolved there - it feels more of an elites vs. normies kind of deal rather than being a matter of "born here/flew here". I think part of it could be that the Aus Liberals have a more elitist reputation than the Canadian Tories, and there's no true equivalent for the Grits here as things stand.

And certainly the way the Senate exists helps minor parties have more of a foothold in Australia than in other countries. Neither the UK and Canada don't have an elected Upper House, whereas New Zealand I don't think has one full stop. If the UK had an elected Senate it's likely the BNP/UKIP would've had more of a foothold in British politics, for example (and the UKIP have won Lower House seats before which One Nation hasn't).

[morgieb]

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

It also has a much higher immigrant population than the UK and the US, though admittedly Australia has an unusually high proportion of migrants from English-speaking countries (I think up until recently the UK and New Zealand was #1 and #2 in "Australian residents born overseas" charts)

[morgieb]

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

It also has a much higher immigrant population than the UK and the US, though admittedly Australia has an unusually high proportion of migrants from English-speaking countries (I think up until recently the UK and New Zealand was #1 and #2 in "Australian residents born overseas" charts)

When I saw you say "much higher" I was skeptical, but turns out Australia is at 29.1%, while America is at 19.1%. UK is at 14%.
Strikingly high. Australia is even more of an immigrant society than America is, which is quite an achievement.

I mean Australia is a much more recent society than the US. I think there are very few Australians with significant ancestry from a non-English speaking country who had all four of their grandparents be born in Australia. My impression is that it's not the case in the US.