Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

Agreed.

Still don't think Youngkin will win, though.  I do think Youngkin wins a majority of the CDs, which will be important for 2022 recruiting.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1450104657167011844

+4 would jive perfectly with other races we have seen in the country in 2021.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1450104657167011844

Byler is notoriously always looking for a bright spot for the GOP, so not surprised he's trying to pull for McAuliffe to only do +4.

[wbrocks67]

So, question for those of you who are arguing mcauliffe's "parents and education" statement wasn't problematic....why is mcauliffe spending time and resources producing an ad saying it was "taken out of context"?

They know it didn't play well. It probably won't matter, but it didn't help either.

Also....lmfao at a poster above trying to tie youngkin to trump's heartless powell statement.

When you have literally nothing else to run on, you make it all trump trump trump.

the people of va deserve a better campaign.

Politicians are always paranoid, McAuliffe has to run as if he's down by a point but he isn't actually.

Can't decide if he's tied/losing in his internals and genuinely panicking or he's still up 2-4 and is trying to scare Dems into turning out so he can have a chance at a 2017 result.

Or maybe it's neither.

It's like saying "McAulife is scared and that's why he's bringing in Obama, Biden, Harris, Abrams, etc."

Those people would be brought in whether his internals said +10 or -10.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1450104657167011844

Byler is notoriously always looking for a bright spot for the GOP, so not surprised he's trying to pull for McAuliffe to only do +4.

What margin do you think McAuliffe will win by? 8 points? 10 points?

[Skill and Chance]

So, question for those of you who are arguing mcauliffe's "parents and education" statement wasn't problematic....why is mcauliffe spending time and resources producing an ad saying it was "taken out of context"?

They know it didn't play well. It probably won't matter, but it didn't help either.

Also....lmfao at a poster above trying to tie youngkin to trump's heartless powell statement.

When you have literally nothing else to run on, you make it all trump trump trump.

the people of va deserve a better campaign.

Politicians are always paranoid, McAuliffe has to run as if he's down by a point but he isn't actually.

Can't decide if he's tied/losing in his internals and genuinely panicking or he's still up 2-4 and is trying to scare Dems into turning out so he can have a chance at a 2017 result.

Or maybe it's neither.

It's like saying "McAulife is scared and that's why he's bringing in Obama, Biden, Harris, Abrams, etc."

Those people would be brought in whether his internals said +10 or -10.

You still don't run an apology/clarification ad unless something says you have to.  A well-executed apology ad can be effective, though. 

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450544811396763650

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450544811396763650

Youngkin probably shot his wad too early.

[Matty]

Mcauliffe ends planned news interview early due to “bad questions”

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamYoungkin/status/1450593236301590540

[roxas11]

Mcauliffe ends planned news interview early due to “bad questions”

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamYoungkin/status/1450593236301590540

Well, at least he didn't body slam the reporter like Republican Greg Gianforte did in 2017

Then again Greg Gianforte actually won that race, so maybe doing something like that would actually help Terry McAuliffe lol

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Here are the interviews.

https://wjla.com/news/local/watch-7news-goes-one-on-one-with-virginia-gubernatorial-candidates-terry-mcauliffe-glenn-youngkin

[Skill and Chance]

Mcauliffe ends planned news interview early due to “bad questions”

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamYoungkin/status/1450593236301590540

This is bad.

[jamestroll]

Mcauliffe ends planned news interview early due to “bad questions”

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamYoungkin/status/1450593236301590540

This is bad.

I doubt it will swing the election unless the election is decided by late arriving mail in ballots and without like 0.5%.

[roxas11]

Mcauliffe ends planned news interview early due to “bad questions”

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamYoungkin/status/1450593236301590540

This is bad.

Don't worry, I'm sure in few days Trump will put out a statement congratulating Terry Mcauliffe for showing that reporter who's boss

[Skill and Chance]

Mcauliffe ends planned news interview early due to “bad questions”

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamYoungkin/status/1450593236301590540

This is bad.

Don't worry, I'm sure in few days Trump will put out a statement congratulating Terry Mcauliffe for showing that reporter who's boss

Trump barely made it through in what should have been a favorable environment.

[jamestroll]

Be prepared... this will be close.... there will mass maga violence across the state led by Amanda Chase... I am terrified her and her klan will invade Richmond, Nova, Charlottesville and Norfolk.

[slothdem]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

[jamestroll]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

My worrying is more the fact that the most consistent theme in Virginia Gubernatorial races is that the party in the white house underperforms polls on election night.

We will see if that continues.

[Matty]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

I was referring to the actual result, not the pre election narratives of 2017.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

If anything, this feels exactly like 2017.

[jamestroll]

Youngkin will ban masks and vaccines in the state.. our tools to stop this pandemic..

I am tired of hearing about covid covid covid covid covid covid covid covid covid all the time... my largest reason for support tmas is covid.

[slothdem]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

I was referring to the actual result, not the pre election narratives of 2017.

Well, that we won't know until they start counting the votes.

[kwabbit]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

My worrying is more the fact that the most consistent theme in Virginia Gubernatorial races is that the party in the white house underperforms polls on election night.

We will see if that continues.

According to RCP, the out candidate overperformed by 2.7, 4.1, 3.5, and 5.6 points. The average of those is 4.0 points. If that's the case, McAuliffe is in trouble. Then again, you've also had the phenomenon of polls underrating Dems in Dem states recently too. Either way, that pattern of polling misses supports the idea that a Youngkin win would not be surprising, perhaps around a 25% chance to win.

[jamestroll]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

My worrying is more the fact that the most consistent theme in Virginia Gubernatorial races is that the party in the white house underperforms polls on election night.

We will see if that continues.

According to RCP, the out candidate overperformed by 2.7, 4.1, 3.5, and 5.6 points. The average of those is 4.0 points. If that's the case, McAuliffe is in trouble. Then again, you've also had the phenomenon of polls underrating Dems in Dem states recently too. Either way, that pattern of polling misses supports the idea that a Youngkin win would not be surprising, perhaps around a 25% chance to win.

Yes.. and of course Nova has changed a lot over the years and political rules are meant to broken at some point.

Even as a Democrat, I  am kind of scratching my head. This environment.. the type of the GOP is running, etc.. just a few cycles ago, Youngkin would be ahead.

[Matty]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

My worrying is more the fact that the most consistent theme in Virginia Gubernatorial races is that the party in the white house underperforms polls on election night.

We will see if that continues.

According to RCP, the out candidate overperformed by 2.7, 4.1, 3.5, and 5.6 points. The average of those is 4.0 points. If that's the case, McAuliffe is in trouble. Then again, you've also had the phenomenon of polls underrating Dems in Dem states recently too. Either way, that pattern of polling misses supports the idea that a Youngkin win would not be surprising, perhaps around a 25% chance to win.

Yes.. and of course Nova has changed a lot over the years and political rules are meant to broken at some point.

Even as a Democrat, I  am kind of scratching my head. This environment.. the type of the GOP is running, etc.. just a few cycles ago, Youngkin would be ahead.

have to factor in the dems are running a popular ex governor.

I think youngkin would be leading if dems nominated someone else.