Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1531784788784431104
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1531793405252096002

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1531801760125296641

President Joe Biden said he’ll give Ukraine advanced rocket systems and other US weaponry to better hit targets in its war with Russia, ramping up military support as the conflict drags into its fourth month.

[...]

The package of weapons includes missiles that will allow Ukraine to strike locations as far as 80 kilometers away, a senior US official told reporters on condition of anonymity. World leaders including British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have publicly called for such a move in recent weeks.

[...]

The White House plans to announce the new $700 million security assistance package on Wednesday, US officials said. Since the war began, the US has supplied more than $4.5 billion in military aid. 

[...]

[Estrella]

Business Insider: Germany sent hardly any weapons to Ukraine since March, leaked documents show, as Putin pushed for a slowdown

Original Welt article

Over the past nine weeks, the German government has apparently reduced its military support to Ukraine to a minimum. So far, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has refused to supply German battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, citing agreements with NATO allies. But as can be seen from documents available to Welt am Sonntag, Germany has not supplied even any significant light weapons since the end of March.

Not exactly happy about my signature being proven right.

[walleye26]

So to what extent are the HIMARS going to be a difference maker? I suspect it takes some time to train on them + move them into the correct positions. If they are better and longer range than what the Russians have though, they should help some, yes?

[sguberman]

It seems like most western leaders fall into three camps
1. Ukraine must take back all of its recognized territory.
2. Russia must retreat to the pre-February 24th borders to start serious negotiations
3. Russia should retreat to the pre-February 24th borders, but it isn't necessary for negotiations.

It seems like the Baltic Leaders, Johnson, and Duda are in camp 1, Biden is in camp 2, while Macron, Scholtz, and Draghi are in camp 3 and I don't know about anyone else.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Business Insider: Germany sent hardly any weapons to Ukraine since March, leaked documents show, as Putin pushed for a slowdown

Original Welt article

Over the past nine weeks, the German government has apparently reduced its military support to Ukraine to a minimum. So far, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has refused to supply German battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, citing agreements with NATO allies. But as can be seen from documents available to Welt am Sonntag, Germany has not supplied even any significant light weapons since the end of March.

Not exactly happy about my signature being proven right.

Scholz had announced yesterday that Germany will supply Greece with tanks and that Greece will send tanks to Ukraine in return. Apparently this is about swapping Marder IFVs of German production with BMP-1 IFVs of Russian production.

The Chancellor has also announced today that Germany will directly supply Ukraine with the IRIS-T air defence system.

https://twitter.com/dpa_intl/status/1531911427379822594

The criticism that Scholz is usually reactive instead of proactive is nonetheless justified IMO. He only does things when he's criticized for inaction, both abroad (namely by the Ukrainian, Polish, and Baltic governments) and at home (CDU, FDP, Greens, German media).

[rc18]

So to what extent are the HIMARS going to be a difference maker? I suspect it takes some time to train on them + move them into the correct positions. If they are better and longer range than what the Russians have though, they should help some, yes?

It really depends on the numbers. A handful of systems isn't going to turn the tide. At the bare minimum they'd need at least 50+, and realistically a lot more.

...

The Chancellor has also announced today that Germany will directly supply Ukraine with the IRIS-T air defence system.

https://twitter.com/dpa_intl/status/1531911427379822594

...

That's nice, how long after the war ends will it be delivered?

Given the surface launch version is brand new this likely just refers to a single system. Better than nothing, but not especially decisive.

[GoTfan]

It seems like most western leaders fall into three camps
1. Ukraine must take back all of its recognized territory.
2. Russia must retreat to the pre-February 24th borders to start serious negotiations
3. Russia should retreat to the pre-February 24th borders, but it isn't necessary for negotiations.

It seems like the Baltic Leaders, Johnson, and Duda are in camp 1, Biden is in camp 2, while Macron, Scholtz, and Draghi are in camp 3 and I don't know about anyone else.

Might just be my stupid perspective, but camp 2 seems like the only feasible option. Russia will escalate before admitting defeat.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So to what extent are the HIMARS going to be a difference maker? I suspect it takes some time to train on them + move them into the correct positions. If they are better and longer range than what the Russians have though, they should help some, yes?

It really depends on the numbers. A handful of systems isn't going to turn the tide. At the bare minimum they'd need at least 50+, and realistically a lot more.

...

The Chancellor has also announced today that Germany will directly supply Ukraine with the IRIS-T air defence system.

https://twitter.com/dpa_intl/status/1531911427379822594
...

That's nice, how long after the war ends will it be delivered?

Given the surface launch version is brand new this likely just refers to a single system. Better than nothing, but not especially decisive.

Bild reports that Ukraine is interested in buying 10 systems (probably just one launcher per system, but who knows?) to be made operational within 3-4 years, with the first systems operational in November at the earliest.

Besides spare parts for jets and Slovakia’s S-300 battery, and despite the small quantity, this is the highest-altitude air defence Ukraine has been offered - by a long way. (It is possible they have been given other Soviet-era medium/long-range AD in secret, but unlikely given the cost and significance of such systems). They are being given the medium-range system with an altitude of 20km; MANPADS, Strela-10 and Stormer vehicles have a ceiling of about 5km. In the long term, Ukraine will need a replacement for its Kub/Buk systems, let alone its S-300.

Credit to Germany on this one. Someone needed to get the ball rolling on AD again.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Business Insider: Germany sent hardly any weapons to Ukraine since March, leaked documents show, as Putin pushed for a slowdown

Original Welt article

Over the past nine weeks, the German government has apparently reduced its military support to Ukraine to a minimum. So far, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has refused to supply German battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, citing agreements with NATO allies. But as can be seen from documents available to Welt am Sonntag, Germany has not supplied even any significant light weapons since the end of March.

Not exactly happy about my signature being proven right.

Scholz had announced yesterday that Germany will supply Greece with tanks and that Greece will send tanks to Ukraine in return. Apparently this is about swapping Marder IFVs of German production with BMP-1 IFVs of Russian production.

Twitter hates this because the Marder is significantly better than the BMP-1 and the exchange of vehicles is going to be 1:1; the common take seems to be that Germany is making a bad trade to offload most of the political cost of arming Ukraine (and also because Greece is apparently simultaneously signing an arms deal with German manufacturers).

I don’t know enough about these vehicles to know whether they’re right, and I’m generally skeptical of these kinds Twitter takes. The advantages of delivering the inferior BMP-1s are less logistical load, no training time required and no issues with ammunition (although the same critics also argue ammunition could be found from sources besides Switzerland if the political will was there).

What do you think? Are the BMPs so bad that the Marder’s training/logistical/ammunition problems are worth ignoring?

[CumbrianLefty]

It seems like most western leaders fall into three camps
1. Ukraine must take back all of its recognized territory.
2. Russia must retreat to the pre-February 24th borders to start serious negotiations
3. Russia should retreat to the pre-February 24th borders, but it isn't necessary for negotiations.

It seems like the Baltic Leaders, Johnson, and Duda are in camp 1, Biden is in camp 2, while Macron, Scholtz, and Draghi are in camp 3 and I don't know about anyone else.

I suspect that camp 1 is to a significant degree rhetorical (especially regarding Crimea)

In practice they are likely closer to camp 2.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It seems like most western leaders fall into three camps
1. Ukraine must take back all of its recognized territory.
2. Russia must retreat to the pre-February 24th borders to start serious negotiations
3. Russia should retreat to the pre-February 24th borders, but it isn't necessary for negotiations.

It seems like the Baltic Leaders, Johnson, and Duda are in camp 1, Biden is in camp 2, while Macron, Scholtz, and Draghi are in camp 3 and I don't know about anyone else.

I suspect that camp 1 is to a significant degree rhetorical (especially regarding Crimea)

In practice they are likely closer to camp 2.

Camp 1 is rhetorical unless and until Ukraine approaches February 24 lines by conquest (unlikely, but we simply don’t have enough information to rule this out). If Russia only then decided to start negotiating, there would probably be some international support for Ukraine going a fair bit further in the Donbas (although not Crimea).

[Storr]

Ukraine is still fighting hard in the Donbass, but they're no doubt taking heavy losses:

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531996440976826369?s=20&t=CvQLUYm4zdA...

[Storr]

A tweet that really reminds you of who the war effects the most:

https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1531766720310005760?s=20&t=CvQLUYm4zdA...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Business Insider: Germany sent hardly any weapons to Ukraine since March, leaked documents show, as Putin pushed for a slowdown

Original Welt article

Over the past nine weeks, the German government has apparently reduced its military support to Ukraine to a minimum. So far, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has refused to supply German battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, citing agreements with NATO allies. But as can be seen from documents available to Welt am Sonntag, Germany has not supplied even any significant light weapons since the end of March.

Not exactly happy about my signature being proven right.

Scholz had announced yesterday that Germany will supply Greece with tanks and that Greece will send tanks to Ukraine in return. Apparently this is about swapping Marder IFVs of German production with BMP-1 IFVs of Russian production.

Twitter hates this because the Marder is significantly better than the BMP-1 and the exchange of vehicles is going to be 1:1; the common take seems to be that Germany is making a bad trade to offload most of the political cost of arming Ukraine (and also because Greece is apparently simultaneously signing an arms deal with German manufacturers).

I don’t know enough about these vehicles to know whether they’re right, and I’m generally skeptical of these kinds Twitter takes. The advantages of delivering the inferior BMP-1s are less logistical load, no training time required and no issues with ammunition (although the same critics also argue ammunition could be found from sources besides Switzerland if the political will was there).

What do you think? Are the BMPs so bad that the Marder’s training/logistical/ammunition problems are worth ignoring?

No idea, honestly. It has upsides and downsides, but which truly outweighs the other is unknown to me.

Of course, the Ukraine policy of Germany is always the result of a compromise between those in the SPD-Green-FDP coalition who would want to do less to help Ukraine and those who would want to do more to help Ukaine.** So in the end the chosen course of action is the one everybody could agree upon. That's not neccesarily the best course of action though.

** = (two factions that could also be easily broken down into those who believe that Germany has a moral obligation not to wage war against Russia as a result of our history and those who believe that Germany has a moral obligation to help Ukraine as a result of our history)


Anyway, in other news...

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1531957916420517888

[NewYorkExpress]

According to Russian State TV World War III has begun.

A prominent Russian state television presenter has claimed World War III has already begun due to western arms support for Ukraine.

Rossiya 1 presenter Olga Skabeyeva said Russia's so-called special military operation in Ukraine was over and “a real war has started, World War III”.

She added that Moscow now had to expand its goal of “demilitarisation” to cover Nato countries.

On Monday’s edition of her programme 60 Minutes, Ms Skabeyeva said: “It's time to admit, perhaps, that Russia's special operation in Ukraine is now over in the sense that a real war has started, World War III.


“We are being forced to demilitarise, not just Ukraine but Nato as a whole.”

She said the use of American M777 howitzers by Ukrainian troops in the Donbas had led her to the conclusion – though it was not the first time she has heeded the beginning of a third world war.

Ms Skabeyeva is a popular propagandist who enthusiastically follows the Kremlin line in broadcasts on Russia's second-most watched news network.

[Logical]

More potent aid than HIMARS in my opinion.
https://twitter.com/MichaelStone/status/1532084932415307776

[President Johnson]

The EU must either move away from unanimous consent or just strip Hungary of its vote.

https://twitter.com/euobs/status/1532095899194769410

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EU must either move away from unanimous consent or just strip Hungary of its vote.

https://twitter.com/euobs/status/1532095899194769410

Erdogan and Orban are by now Putin's best buddies within NATO. Autocrats stick together.

[President Johnson]

The EU must either move away from unanimous consent or just strip Hungary of its vote.

https://twitter.com/euobs/status/1532095899194769410

Erdogan and Orban are by now Putin's best buddies useful idiots within NATO. Autocrats stick together.

Fixed this, and even using mild terms here.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1532049445348589571

The US is only sending four HIMARS.


Very disappointing.

[pppolitics]

UK sending MLRS, too. "The United Kingdom is asking the U.S. to sign off on a plan to send advanced, medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine within a few weeks, according to a person familiar with the matter and a document outlining the proposal"

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1532034784955883522

[pppolitics]

Wow!
Britain requests a U.S. permission to provide us with M270s MLRS.
This is tasty, folks. We’ll get both types we wanted dearly, along with the M142s

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1532054888544444416

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1532049445348589571
The US is only sending four HIMARS.


Very disappointing.

This is how they started with the M777s. Several orders of magnitude more were delivered in the second package, as training accelerated.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

More potent aid than HIMARS in my opinion.
https://twitter.com/MichaelStone/status/1532084932415307776

We shall see. Of course, it depends on the respective quantities, but this looks like an attempt to expand Ukraine’s pre-existing capabilities with more expensive (and somewhat upgraded) versions of Bayraktar drones. Like the Switchblade, I suspect lobbyists were pushing a little harder for this because they do not want to lose out in the drone market to Turkey. If Ukraine gets enough, they might be able to build some kind of drone-based Air Force. I’m not sure what that would look like or how well it could work, but Azerbaijan relied mostly on Bayraktars for air support in their recent offensives against Armenia, so perhaps Ukraine could substitute these drones for warplanes in a similar fashion.

A “cheap” solution (mentioned months ago by LVScreensSuck) would be to supply Ukraine with the slightly worse Predator drones that the Air Force recently retired. These are worth much less to the US than their production costs now, and have been handed down to the CIA (taking equipment away from the CIA is good).