Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Estrella]

Lukashenko sounds completely unhinged in his latest BBC interview - more or less openly admitting to what he's doing with migrants, answering a question about closing down NGOs with something like "all the scum the West is sending us", literally just shouting in some moments, etc, etc.

[Estrella]

We ought to get BigSerg in here to see another perspective.

Yes, Senator McCarthy, this man right here ^

[Estrella]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

Uzhhorod's airport is right on the border of a NATO member state - as in, the runway ends literally one hundred meters from the border fence. If it came down to fighting in Zakarpattia, I wouldn't want to be in Putin's shoes, though, living in the state the airport borders, I certainly don't want to be in my shoes either. But perhaps it's inevitable.

[Estrella]

Russians now reportedly dumping their soldiers into the sea to save the Ukrainians the trouble of shooting them:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497664806958030851?s=20&t=b_94FJ3infb...

i will wait for legit confirmation but if true, the russians are next-level incompetent. like something out of a cartoon incompetent

Certainly seems plausible considering how mismanaged the rest of the invasion is.

[Estrella]

Someone mentioned that the reason for Putin trying to put himself in history books might be that he received a very bad diagnosis and thinks he's dying. IMO that hypothesis seems plausible. The invasion seems like a plan to seize Ukraine right now, consequences be damned, doing it properly be damned, exploiting the opportunities it provides be damned. Both the invasion and the sanctions would be the best opportunity for domestic consumption propaganda since at least 2014, possibly since the fall of USSR. And yet, Russian state media are acting as if nothing is happening. It all comes off as a plan that was hastily tacked together without any thinking while the troops were moving towards Ukrainian borders. Putin just wanted to get this over with.

[Estrella]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

[Estrella]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

So they will all be living on ramen?

Traditionally it would be bread, but China will be more than happy to squeeze every last kopek out of them, so ramen it is.

[Estrella]

Earlier in this thread I compared Russia's economic situation to early 2010s Greece. I think now we're going to see what a Grexit could have looked like.

[Estrella]

Zelenskyy bans the biggest opposition party, will the EU reject UA admission request due to democratic backsliding?

As far as I understand it, it's only for the duration of the state of emergency.

[Estrella]

A CNN article about how Russia may not have a overall theater commander in charged of the invasion.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/us-russia-top-military-commander-ukraine-war/index.html

It has one. It's Putin. Maybe, that is. It would for sure explain the "looks good on a map but is actually completely unfeasible" character of the invasion - the thing Al mentioned about too few soldiers for too many fronts.

[Estrella]

Although Russia suffered a number of defeats, Emperor Nicholas II remained convinced that Russia could still win if it fought on; he chose to remain engaged in the war and await the outcomes of key naval battles. As hope of victory dissipated, he continued the war to preserve the dignity of Russia by averting a "humiliating peace".

[Estrella]

Ukraine is in a much better spot for a war of attrition than Russia. The sanctions are devestating Russia and will continue to each month. Meanwhile Ukraine can be resupplied easily, the borders of Poland and Slovakia are still easy supply lines. The Slovakian border hasn't really been hit at all, and Lviv near Poland is the least impacted major city, only a few missle strikes and no urban fighting at all

Are there any major roads into Ukraine from Slovakia? I know there are a few from Hungary through the Carpathians.

There are surprisingly few roads across the border - official ones, that is - but what BRTD said about Uzhhorod being a major city located where it is more than negates that IMO. Plus, there's a Russian-gauge railway going 80 kilometres into Slovakia - that could be useful too.

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1508878823185690637?s=20&t=8-J3GsseU2U...

Most upvoted comment, 936 times: "Another Khasavyurt agreement... Congratulations. Again windbags sold our guys"

There is some major hate in the comments, but also some pathetic coping:

"I hope that this is a multi-move on the part of Putin, otherwise the Russian Federation is waiting for the Maidan and the collapse of the country into parts. So betray the people, the military and people who hoped for liberation from Kyiv. After such a drain they do not live."

"Kyiv was not originally needed. The task was to "press" him. And no one is withdrawing troops from there. There is almost no supply there, and there is no point in destroying the historic city. Now the whole scenario will be from the eastern bank of the Dnieper, and to the south. But this, by the way, also means such a gesture: you see, we go forward, but you recognize the Crimea, the south and the southeast."

"No need to panic. there are still not so many forces near Kiev to storm, now we need to clean up the Donbass and all this direction. To be objective, everything was done correctly, only presented under the sauce that it was a gesture of goodwill. Not idiots are sitting in our General Staff, and Putin V.V. definitely not an idiot"

" don't panic. If in the Kiev direction we go on the defensive in the occupied sectors and finish off the enemy in the Kharkov, Southern and Donbas directions, then this is the right decision. The main forces of the enemy are concentrated there, and the sooner we destroy them, the sooner the war will end. So I think if that's the case, then management is doing the right thing."

[This last one make me laugh out loud.]

"didn’t think that I would ever say this, but maybe it would be better for Kadyrov to lead the military operation, maybe things would go faster with less of our losses, otherwise it becomes like a desire to keep a good face on a bad game"

And now... today quiz.

How many of these comments were written by paid agents of the FSB?

Unfortunately, the typical Russian really is that stupid. Thirty years of listening to the Communist version of Dolchstoß will do that to you.

[Estrella]

4. Why the f--- should the US look to increase combat operations when we're already broke?

This is the American version of a Russian devushka crying about the end of Instagram while Ukrainians die.

[Estrella]

Estimation of frontlines:
https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1512220132348727297

After completely giving up their territory in the north, Russian gains now look downright pathetic, considering they’re 6 weeks and 10,000 dead into the war.

It's particularly pathetic around Donetsk. I wouldn't have believed you if you told me 6 weeks into a Russian invasion of Ukraine that Avdiivka, which is 10 miles from downtown Donetsk, would still be under Ukrainian control.

Also random thought, but after the war should be renamed Donetsk to Zelensky.
The US had the right idea when naming coal basins after nearly regions and cities, instead of the other way around.

Minor nitpick: Donetsk is actually named after the Donets river (as is the Donets Basin), but I agree with you point.

_{Donetsk was in fact founded by a Welsh businessman who named it after himself, so until 1924 the city was called Hughesovka. Seriously.}

[Estrella]

Steinmeier himself is completely meaningless. He's a figurehead without any real political influence whose visit would have been nothing than an empty talk photo op.

I'm not sure if you're aware of how diplomacy works. And I think you underestimate both the power of "photo ops" and public sentiment about how the highest representative of Germany is being treated by someone asking for his country's help. There are certain rules and conventions, and the Ukrainians have violated them in a way that is irritating at the very least.

What could he have brought apart from some signs of "solidarity"?

What do all the other Heads of State bring? What did Michael Roth & Co. bring who visited just recently? But let us turn the question around: What is the advantage of rejecting Steinmeier? Because I don't see any.

Can you defeat Russia with solidarity?

Well, you certainly cannot defeat anyone by publicly turning against your allies.

The colonial officer here is Germany, knowing once again what's best for others - "Am deutschen Wesen soll die Welt gewesen".

Not sure what you're referring to. But the colonial officer is clearly Melnyk - a guy who insults leading German politicians every second day and still hasn't learn the difference between to ask and to demand. If anyone has deserved to be persona non grata, it's him.

Or how else do you explain Steinmeier's behavior, who never really cared for Eastern European concerns (like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia) and recommended Ukraine what they should do with Donbas in his toxic Steinmeier-Formula, which paved the way to legimitize Russia's behavior?
Maybe this is not childish but very well thought through, because Ukrainians don't wanna see the guy who told them like some colonial ruler how to split up their country and who shared homoromantic moments with Sergey Lavrov in their country that's being literally slaughtered and raped right now for a photo op appointment? It's an affront of Steinmeier to not consider that maybe he shouldn't show up unless Germany finally delivers - his advisors should have known that, and maybe he would've been welcomed after some significant progress is achieved.

I don't see the argument, to be honest. Again, Steinmeier has already made clear that he was mistaken in the past. And it's pretty meaningless if he went to bed with Lavrov or whatever - today he is President and not FM anymore. Not member of a government or of a party but representative of Germany as such (and to be treated accordingly).

It's also not like he wanted to do this on his own. He was supposed to be part of a larger delegation of European Head of States after all.

Germany sticks out for delaying, thinking, being busy with itself and blocking right now. Scholz can show otherwise if he comes to Ukraine, instead of empty calls of "We are with you". Steinmeier's visit would've brought nothing. Among Ukrainians, Germany is seen as 5th most hostile country right now right after Russia, Belarus, China and Hungary. Maybe, just maybe, there's some very legit reasons for that.

It is the "5th most hostile country" out of how many countries people were asked for? A dozen? But if Ukrainians really feel like this, I am sorry for them because...

...Germany has received several hundred thousand refugees, the highest number of all countries not directly bordering Ukraine. In addition, there has been major legislative action aimed at helping these refugees in a non-bureaucratic way.
...Germany has not vetoed a single sanction at the EU level.
...Germany holds strong pro-Ukrainian positions in all relevant international bodies.
...Germany did send weapons to Ukraine, something that would have been unimaginable half a year ago and marks a break with key principles of German foreign policy.
...in the years prior to the Russian invasion, no country (except the US) has given more direct humanitarian aid to Ukraine than Germany.

If this is hostile, I don't know how to call the position of at least 75% of the international community: countries that have implemented no sanctions at all, continue to trade with Russia, and, in some cases, even refuse to formally condemn the Russian invasion.

Yeah I know enough people who have a negative opinion about Germany thanks to the behavior of its people in charge.

Again, there is absolutely no reason for that. People should be grateful for what Germany is doing and has done in the past. If they think they are entitled to sulk just because Scholz is not interested in completely crushing his country's industry - well, it's their problem.

After the invasion of the 24th of February
the secretary of German government
had leaflets distributed in the Gazpromallee
stating that Ukrainians
had forfeited the confidence of Germany
and could only win it back
by more apologies for defending themselves.
Would it not in that case be simpler for Germans
to let their ally die
and find another?

[Estrella]

Fighting to the last Ukrainian..

This is such a fascinating turn of phrase. It's as if to say "oh look, Ukrainians just want to be conquered in peace, it's the imperialist West that wants them to have their own country." Of course, these same people also never stop corncern trolling about Azov, Bandera, ethnonationalists and all that. The enemy is both strong and weak.

[Estrella]

Business Insider: Germany sent hardly any weapons to Ukraine since March, leaked documents show, as Putin pushed for a slowdown

Original Welt article

Over the past nine weeks, the German government has apparently reduced its military support to Ukraine to a minimum. So far, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has refused to supply German battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, citing agreements with NATO allies. But as can be seen from documents available to Welt am Sonntag, Germany has not supplied even any significant light weapons since the end of March.

Not exactly happy about my signature being proven right.

[Estrella]

Rest in Pieces lol. This is the first EU citizen I've seen/heard of that has died fighting for Russia (the second tweet links to a 2015 interview with him where he claims Slovakia has become a colony of the EU):

"Let's celebrate the Glory of the Slavs...
Stefan Potocki from Kalna nad Hronom, Slovakia died heroically in the fight against fascism and for the freedom of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Random bit of local knowledge: the only interesting thing in Kalná nad Hronom is a pedestal with an old Soviet tank and Dom bojovej slávy ('House of Battlefield Glory'), a (IIRC pretty propagandistic) museum of Soviet army. Maybe someone spent too much time there as a bored kid.

[Estrella]

Chart from Economist's
"As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out"

The primary aim of modern warfare (in accordance with the principles of doublethink, this aim is simultaneously recognized and not recognized by the directing brains of the Inner Party) is to use up the products of the machine without raising the general standard of living. Ever since the end of the nineteenth century, the problem of what to do with the surplus of consumption goods has been latent in industrial society.

The problem was how to keep the wheels of industry turning without increasing the real wealth of the world. Goods must be produced, but they must not be distributed. And in practice the only way of achieving this was by continuous warfare. The essential act of war is destruction, not necessarily of human lives, but of the products of human labour. War is a way of shattering to pieces, or pouring into the stratosphere, or sinking in the depths of the sea, materials which might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable, and hence, in the long run, too intelligent. Even when weapons of war are not actually destroyed, their manufacture is still a convenient way of expending labour power without producing anything that can be consumed.

This is obviously not something Putin is doing on purpose, but it is the consequence of his actions and it shows why 'haha squiggly line go up' doesn't mean the same thing in today's Russia as elsewhere.

[Estrella]

An interesting article about the Federal Protective Service and its countermeasures against a hypothetical anti-Putin coup:



(wait, no, sorry, wrong link)

Enemy within the Kremlin Gates. FSO gets ready to protect Putin from coup by using priests, hypnotists and political officers

The FSO planners emphasize that the enemy is cunning and insidious and will first of all seek to “reduce the psychological stability of personnel, disorient them morally and make them unprepared for resistance. Among the key threats they name television, radio, print media, social media, books, brochures, leaflets and posters. In addition, agents of foreign intelligence may engage social movements, non-governmental and religious (pseudo-religious) organizations, and reach out to relatives of FSO officers. Particular emphasis is placed on certain individuals “capable of psychologically infecting personnel and possessing hypnotic abilities.” However, the document does not specify who these individuals are or how they can hypnotize and psychologically infect the well-trained Kremlin guards.

In addition to social media and hypnosis, as outlined in the plan, the enemy intends to employ more sophisticated methods: 1) software and hardware backdoors enabling sound and visual effects, 2) psycho-corrective games, 3) psychoactive chemical and biological formulas, 4) computer psycho-viruses and programs exerting subtle influence on computer operators, 5) psycho-generators, 6) low frequency acoustic generators, 7) advertising products, 8​) everyday household items in prepared packing.

The psycho-corrective games mentioned in the classified plan are mainly intended for developing attention and overcoming fears in preschool children. Child psychologists use human or animal dolls for this purpose. How it will look in practice with regard to foreign intelligence agents and FSO officers is difficult to imagine.

Computer psycho-viruses, whatever they may be, can be safely excluded from the methods of psychological influence on security personnel. Due to the massive popularity of foreign porn websites among the Kremlin security officers, especially at night, Internet access was cut off several years ago. And the use of cell phones and tablets while on duty in the Kremlin is strictly forbidden.

Tabloids have written a lot about the psycho-generator, or as it is also called, “dark matter generator”, which had allegedly been developed in secret CIA centers. Those publications were used by more than one generation of conspiracy and pseudo-science theorists. The Soviet Union also sought to create psychological weapons, a lot of money had been invested, but due to meager results the secret program was closed.

You know, it tells you a lot about the mindset of people who run intelligence/security agencies that they imagine a coup as some kind of esoteric sci-fi battle where those who have the shiniest high-tech toys and the purest psyche will win, even though every coup in Russian history was some variation on this:

And these people are Russians! They should know. But then Putinism is all about historical illiteracy.

[Estrella]

Croatia rejects joining in EU’s Ukraine training mission

The vote in parliament was held after Croatia’s president previously had refused to sign off on the proposal, saying it was not in accordance with the Constitution. President Zoran Milanovic has been an outspoken critic of Western policies in Ukraine. He has advocated that Croatia offer only humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion.

The government needed a two-thirds majority in parliament to get such a decision approved. The proposal did not pass because 97 out of parliament’s 151 members backed it — four fewer than needed. Ten lawmakers were against while the rest abstained or weren’t present during the vote.

Milanović was quite pro-Russian during his 2011–2016 term as PM, and after leaving office set up a consultancy firm with some rather suspicious connections to Moscow. As president, he's somehow managed to out-Orbán Orbán.

Highlights of Milanović's foreign policies include lashing out at the PM for visiting Ukraine, accusing the UK of goading Ukraine against Russia, saying that Russia deserves security guarantees from Ukraine, banning NATO aircraft from Croatian airspace, saying that the invasion is a US-Russian proxy war, calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution a coup d'état, denying the Bucha massacre, saying that "it's the Ukrainians or those who incited them who are to blame for deaths of Ukrainians" and this quote which, yes, is real and was said this September: "we're currently watching how Russia is mincing Ukraine with very small number of soldiers".

[Estrella]

snip

Why does Greece have so many tanks? I mean, I know why, but do they expect them to swim across the Aegean?

[Estrella]

Tagesschau: Pistorius is also waiting for the Chancellor

I feel like Scholz is currently either alone in his office twisting himself into a moral knot thanks to his bizarre sense of deference towards Russia, or being yelled at by Plötner/Mützenich/whoever is currently the biggest Putinversteher in his orbit.

[Estrella]

You can always count on Germans to do the right thing – after they've tried everything else.

_{And just like when Churchill said this about Americans, it's not a compliment.}