Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Frodo]

Those precious few Russians with a conscience:

Documents Reveal Hundreds of Russian Troops Broke Ranks Over Ukraine Orders

[Middle-aged Europe]

Status of German arms shipments:

- Delivery of seven Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers and four M270 MLRS rocket launchers are expected to occur until the end of June. Training of Ukrainian military personnel at the Panzerhaubitze has been described as being completed in the coming days, training at the MLRS will be conducted by the U.S. military.

- The first batch of 15 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks are expected mid-July, the remaining 35 will probably be delivered until the end of August.

- IRIS-T air defence system will be operational sometime in October.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to a new Infratest-dimap poll 40% of Germans support keeping American nuclear weapons in Germany (at current levels), 12% support keeping them as well as modernizing and expanding them, 39% advocate removing them from Germany.

Continued presence of American nukes to Germany receive the strongest support from Green voters (64%), followed by CDU/CSU and FDP voters (61% each). Strongest opposition comes from the AfD with 56% advocating a removal of nuclear weapons from the country.

Support for U.S. nukes in Germany is at 56% in western and at 38% in eastern Germany.

(Source: https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/panorama/umfrage-atomwaffen-deutschland-101.html)


Another totally inversed foreign and defence policy issue that seems to be entirely determined ideologically by "do you like Vladimir Putin?" post-02/24.

Also, former East Germany is basically Hungary and the AfD is Fidesz.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1531857638459416576

[CumbrianLefty]

Those precious few Russians with a conscience:

Documents Reveal Hundreds of Russian Troops Broke Ranks Over Ukraine Orders

And for every one who broke ranks, there will be an order of magnitude more not happy with things.

Said it early on in this conflict and it remains the case - for all the polling and suchlike showing that most Russians support this war, overt and passionate enthusiasm remains notably thin on the ground. That might help explain why state TV frequently resorts to the inflammatory, and often simultaneously sinister and absurd, rhetoric that it does - their core audience of USSR-nostalgic boomers need to be kept in line.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Those precious few Russians with a conscience:

Documents Reveal Hundreds of Russian Troops Broke Ranks Over Ukraine Orders

And for every one who broke ranks, there will be an order of magnitude more not happy with things.

Said it early on in this conflict and it remains the case - for all the polling and suchlike showing that most Russians support this war, overt and passionate enthusiasm remains notably thin on the ground. That might help explain why state TV frequently resorts to the inflammatory, and often simultaneously sinister and absurd, rhetoric that it does - their core audience of USSR-nostalgic boomers need to be kept in line.

Because the actual attitude that the Putin regime wants from its populace is not patriotic fervor, but apathy and resignation. A real, genuine patriotic movement can take on a life of its own and become difficult or impossible for the regime to control, and even turn against it. This is why only officially-sponsored, choreographed displays of support for the *COUGH AHEM* SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION *COUGH AHEM*  are allowed, and why Russian nationalists who've applied to hold Z rallies have actually had their permits rejected by the authorities in most places. Of course another possible reason for this is that they'll go off message, which hints at the danger I mentioned: it would of course be very likely and  quite embarrassing for the regime for a speaker at an independent pro-war rally to use bloodthirsty, openly racist, genocidal, or anti-Semitic language. If such a clip went viral online, it would further harden the will of Ukrainians to resist and of Western countries to aid them.

The absurd, inflammatory, and conspiratorial content on state TV is intended to keep people in line and create a network of paranoid snitches to control the rest of the population and make sure that no one makes trouble, much like what existed in Soviet times, rather than to get people out on the streets and to the front lines.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Orban successfully vetoes EU sanctions against Kyrill.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dpa_intl/status/1532370085708439557

[Middle-aged Europe]

More German poll numbers (Infratest-dimap for ARD-Deutschlandtrend, 05/30 to 06/01, 1,337 participants)


Opinion on German support of Ukraine with weapons

Appropriate 42% (+7)
Not enough 29% (-2)
Too much 23% (-4)


Opinion on German sanctions against Russia

Not enough 41% (-4)
Appropriate 37% (+3)
Too much 15% (+1)


Opinion on diplomatic efforts to end the war

Appropriate 43% (+2)
Not enough 41% (-1)
Too much 8% (+2)


Opinion on German military support for Ukraine

German government should rather act decisively and be tough on Russia: 50% (-2)
German government should rather be restrained to avoid provoking Russia: 43% (+3)


"Act decisively"/"Be restrained" answers broken down by party affiliation

Greens 74% / 21%
FDP 60% / 35%
CDU/CSU 59% / 37%
SPD 45% / 47%
AfD 29% / 71%


"Act decisively"/"Be restrained" answers broken down by regions

West Germany 53% / 40%
East Germany 35% / 58%


Most important political problem? (two issues could be mentioned, comparison with September 2021 when the Bundestag was elected)

Ukraine war/Russian invasion/Foreign policy: 37% (didn't register in 09/21)
Inflation/Rising costs/Rising gas prices: 23% (didn't register in 09/21)
Environmental protection/Climate change: 22% (-11)
Social inequity/Poverty/Welfare benefits: 16% (+/-0)
Energy policy/Transition to renewables: 11% (+7)
Pensions/Retirement benefits: 10% (-5)
Economy: 8% (+1)
Education/Schools/Job training: 8% (+/-0)
Own country first, doing more for Germany: 6% (didn't register in 09/21)
Government/Detachment of politicians/Disenchantment with politics: 5% (-2)


Approval ratings

Vice-chancellor/economy minister Robert Habeck (Greens): 60% (+4)
Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens): 60% (+4)
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD): 43% (+4)
Finance minister Christian Lindner (FDP): 42% (+1)
Opposition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU): 35% (+2)
Defence minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD): 18% (-2)


Voting intention

CDU/CSU 27% (+1)
SPD 21% (-3)
Greens 21% (+3)
AfD 11% (+/-0)
FDP 8% (-1)
Left 4% (+1)

[jaichind]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-india-is-set-to-win-big-as-eu-bans-russian-oil-imports-11654021874

"Why India is the big winner as EU’s Russia oil ban redraws energy trade map"

India is buying record amounts of severely discounted Russian crude, running its refiners above nameplate capacity, and capturing the economic rent of sky-high crack spreads and exporting gasoline and diesel to Europe. In short, the EU policy of tightening the screws on Russia is a policy win, but the unintended consequence is that Europe is effectively importing inflation to its own citizens. This is not only an economic boon for India, but it also serves as an accelerator for India’s place in the new geopolitically rewritten oil trade map. What we mean is that the EU policy effectively makes India an increasingly vital energy source for Europe. This was historically never the case, and it is why Indian product exports have been clocking in at all-time-high levels over recent months.

EU oil sanctions on Russia is merely a roundabout way to self-impose a middleman tax for their consumers for the same Russia oil.

[Omega21]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-india-is-set-to-win-big-as-eu-bans-russian-oil-imports-11654021874

"Why India is the big winner as EU’s Russia oil ban redraws energy trade map"

India is buying record amounts of severely discounted Russian crude, running its refiners above nameplate capacity, and capturing the economic rent of sky-high crack spreads and exporting gasoline and diesel to Europe. In short, the EU policy of tightening the screws on Russia is a policy win, but the unintended consequence is that Europe is effectively importing inflation to its own citizens. This is not only an economic boon for India, but it also serves as an accelerator for India’s place in the new geopolitically rewritten oil trade map. What we mean is that the EU policy effectively makes India an increasingly vital energy source for Europe. This was historically never the case, and it is why Indian product exports have been clocking in at all-time-high levels over recent months.

EU oil sanctions on Russia is merely a roundabout way to self-impose a middleman tax for their consumers for the same Russia oil.

Lovely.

Leave it to the EU to figure out a very effective way for us to f' ourselves.

The bottom 30-50% better get some new belt holes drilled.

[JimJamUK]

Continued presence of American nukes to Germany receive the strongest support from Green voters (64%)

LOL

[Middle-aged Europe]

Continued presence of American nukes to Germany receive the strongest support from Green voters (64%)

LOL

Yeah, I know... historical irony and all, considering that Green party largely came into existence due to Helmut Schmidt and the SPD's support for nuclear armament in the late 70s.

But I guess Green voters from the 1980s are mostly dead by now and their kids seem to think differently.

[CumbrianLefty]

Continued presence of American nukes to Germany receive the strongest support from Green voters (64%)

LOL

Yeah, I know... historical irony and all, considering that Green party largely came into existence due to Helmut Schmidt and the SPD's support for nuclear armament in the late 70s.

But I guess Green voters from the 1980s are mostly dead by now and their kids seem to think differently.

Lots of boomers still about you know, quite a few won't be still voting Green now of course.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Continued presence of American nukes to Germany receive the strongest support from Green voters (64%)

LOL

Yeah, I know... historical irony and all, considering that Green party largely came into existence due to Helmut Schmidt and the SPD's support for nuclear armament in the late 70s.

But I guess Green voters from the 1980s are mostly dead by now and their kids seem to think differently.

Lots of boomers still about you know, quite a few won't be still voting Green now of course.

They won't exactly be voting Left Party either, considering that they're consistantly polling at 3-4%.

But I am in fact member in a large "Green party base" discussion group on Facebook (with ca. 2,500 members total), so I'm aware that there is vocal minority of mostly older people who are arguing the "the war is America's fault, Russia & Ukraine are almost equally bad, Ukraine needs to surrender in order to save lives" line. I have actually muted posts from that group in my FB feed yesterday evening, because I thought it started to get a bit out of hand after two of them had posted stuff from conspiracy blogs.

[Person Man]

Continued presence of American nukes to Germany receive the strongest support from Green voters (64%)

LOL

Yeah, I know... historical irony and all, considering that Green party largely came into existence due to Helmut Schmidt and the SPD's support for nuclear armament in the late 70s.

But I guess Green voters from the 1980s are mostly dead by now and their kids seem to think differently.

Lots of boomers still about you know, quite a few won't be still voting Green now of course.

They won't exactly be voting Left Party either, considering that they're consistantly polling at 3-4%.

But I am in fact member in a large "Green party base" discussion group on Facebook (with ca. 2,500 members total), so I'm aware that there is vocal minority of mostly older people who are arguing the "the war is America's fault, Russia & Ukraine are almost equally bad, Ukraine needs to surrender in order to save lives" line. I have actually muted posts from that group in my FB feed yesterday evening, because I thought it started to get a bit out of hand after two of them had posted stuff from conspiracy blogs.

Conspiracy theories? No one needs to tell anyone here that mental illness and politics don’t mix.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Continued presence of American nukes to Germany receive the strongest support from Green voters (64%)

LOL

Yeah, I know... historical irony and all, considering that Green party largely came into existence due to Helmut Schmidt and the SPD's support for nuclear armament in the late 70s.

But I guess Green voters from the 1980s are mostly dead by now and their kids seem to think differently.

Lots of boomers still about you know, quite a few won't be still voting Green now of course.

They won't exactly be voting Left Party either, considering that they're consistantly polling at 3-4%.

But I am in fact member in a large "Green party base" discussion group on Facebook (with ca. 2,500 members total), so I'm aware that there is vocal minority of mostly older people who are arguing the "the war is America's fault, Russia & Ukraine are almost equally bad, Ukraine needs to surrender in order to save lives" line. I have actually muted posts from that group in my FB feed yesterday evening, because I thought it started to get a bit out of hand after two of them had posted stuff from conspiracy blogs.

Conspiracy theories? No one needs to tell anyone here that mental illness and politics don’t mix.

I think it was more of a mix of naivity and a lack of media literacy. Nobody checks his sources anymore as long as these source confirm what you know to be true anyway. I (and other users too) was getting a bit fed up trying too teach them that in the FB group though in recent weeks.

[pppolitics]

Zelensky's advisor claimed that Russian lost a BTG in Kherson

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1532684272284450816

[Middle-aged Europe]

German parliament passed the 100 billion Euro special defence budget today.

Yes: 590
No: 80
Abstentions: 7
Not present: 58

SPD (with 9 no votes and 1 abstention), CDU/CSU (with 1 no vote), Greens (with 4 no votes), and FDP (all yes) largely voted in favour.

The Left unanimously voted against it. AfD was almost equally split into two camps (Yes: 33, No 35, Abstentions: 6), apparently unable to decide whether they're more pro-military or more pro-Russia.



The budget is split the following way:

Air Force - 41 billion EUR (purchase of F-35s, Eurofighters, Chinook helicopters, Heron TP drones; development of the Future Combat Air System as sixth-generation stealth fighter successor to the Eurofighter)

Navy - 19 billion EUR (construction of F126 frigates and Braunschweig-class corvettes - the term "frigate" is perhaps a bit of an intentional misnomer in case of the yet to be built F126 class, it has the displacement of the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser and will be Germany's biggest post-WWII warship so far)

Army - 17 billion EUR (refitting the Puma IFVs, purchasing successors for the aging Marder IFVs and Fuchs APCs etc.)

Modernization and digitalization of communications infrastructure - 21 billion EUR

Clothing and personal equipment - 2 bllion EUR

Research and development - 0.4 billion EUR

[All Along The Watchtower]

What’s the deal with these leftists and “realists” calling for diplomacy with Russia in the name of “peace?” It’s clear that we’re past the point of no return with Putin and the blame lies primarily—no, solely—on his shoulders.

F—k rewarding the aggressor. Kick the Russians out of all of Ukraine.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532625871848316929?s=20&t=gBt37n...

[pullet with a mullet]

Anyways:
There is relevantly quietness in these videos. People are speculating that Ukrainians are withdrawing from Severeodonetsk all together. Unsure about the equipment since most of the bridges are destroyed, either be left behind or destroyed probably.

Lysychansk will be a good defensive position with the river crossing making it difficult for Russians to cross, but the city will still be highly vulnerable to artillery.

Based, but I’m under no illusions. Been lurking for a while. I’m pro Russia, but I try to be objective when it comes to analysis, and ik despite the severdonets-Lysychansk area being roughly the same size as Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, the latter is going to be much harder for Russia to dislodge, as the AFU is going to make one of their biggest stands there.

[Frodo]

According to US intelligence sources inside the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is sick with advanced cancer and survived an assassination attempt back in March apparently:

Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to US intelligence sources inside the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is sick with advanced cancer and survived an assassination attempt back in March apparently:

Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says

[HillGoose]

What’s the deal with these leftists and “realists” calling for diplomacy with Russia in the name of “peace?” It’s clear that we’re past the point of no return with Putin and the blame lies primarily—no, solely—on his shoulders.

F—k rewarding the aggressor. Kick the Russians out of all of Ukraine.

as far as i can tell the lamestream media really decided to go pussy coward hippie peacenik in the last week because they care more about lining billionaires pockets getting the world back to "business as usual" than they do about the fate of global democracy seems like. sickening stuff

[Storr]

Impressive response time:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1532866786005336064?s=20&t=gBt37n_...