Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[sguberman]

Even some of Russia's closest allies like Cuba and the Central African Republic abstained

[sguberman]

So looks like the Fighter jet deal may not be dead.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499083675463467009

[sguberman]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html

[sguberman]

I wonder if there was any behind the scenes actions done to maximize votes against Russia at the UN?

[sguberman]

I am struggling to see how Russia gets a total victory at this point even a victory at all may be unlikely.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1500113298351693828

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1500551253226573826

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/haltman/status/1500884720976117770

[sguberman]

I have no doubt Ukraine is getting some kind of help from NATO beyond intel, weapons, and ant-tank missiles that is currently being kept secret.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500888160259117056?s=20&t=ddk73d9RCVf...

I wonder if there are moles in the Russian government at this point.

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1501191205727739917

[sguberman]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

Everything here needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That being said, it could be a risky move and cause backlash in Belarus. If Russia actually needs help from them, you know they're in big trouble.

apparently Belarus has one of the worst militaries in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1498279646529478656

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1502315019706552322

[sguberman]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1503397795323162633

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1503401052250554370

[sguberman]

There are still some brave people in Russia.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503446891014537222

I don't know if I believe this but this thread is certainly interesting
https://twitter.com/grishchukroma/status/1503500141159985157
edit:
Yeah I am leaning towards this was set up
https://twitter.com/JpnsGd/status/1503515038006534147
edit2: Ok so apparently the Instagram post was fake but I am still suspicious

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1503864619932205065

[sguberman]

S-300 are apparently on the way
https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/1504104741705502727

[sguberman]

Interesting article from the New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/climate/europe-russia-gas-reagan.html

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/YourAnonNews/status/1508424057770889222

[sguberman]

Holy s**t
https://twitter.com/OTolmachev/status/1512131101506031616

[sguberman]

So this is something I’ve been wondering about for a while. PNTR with Russia was pulled months ago. But there hasn’t been any movement on tariffs.

Why won’t Biden place tariffs on Russia? Is he going to soon?

We blocked oil imports from Russia, which was already like 80-90% of our Russia imports.

As for what else we import, I'm not sure of its current status.  I know platinum is one thing we import in a pretty small quantity, but it may be critical enough to be impossible to ban at the current time while simultaneously being small enough to not have a significant impact on Russia's economy one way or another.

Oil & gas was an enormous part of Russia's economy.  Everything else is basically just nibbling at the edges.  But I wouldn't be surprised if most of the other imports have been cut off one way or another as well.

We also still import Uranium

[sguberman]

It seems like most western leaders fall into three camps
1. Ukraine must take back all of its recognized territory.
2. Russia must retreat to the pre-February 24th borders to start serious negotiations
3. Russia should retreat to the pre-February 24th borders, but it isn't necessary for negotiations.

It seems like the Baltic Leaders, Johnson, and Duda are in camp 1, Biden is in camp 2, while Macron, Scholtz, and Draghi are in camp 3 and I don't know about anyone else.