Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[emailking]

The Earth Is Blue as an Orange, about a family's life during the ongoing war in the Donbas, is finally coming out June 21. I will watch it.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1531571788240527360

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1531301883628986368

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/markos/status/1531469113570103296?s=20&t=jUly8iIlsYA7RWJ...


Looking at Russia's population pyramid shows why increasing the age limit for signing military contracts was necessary if the government wants to avoid mobilization:

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1531301883628986368

"4 missiles and everything [both US coasts] will be wiped out"
"If we re-install their brains correctly"

I don't know if this is the same guy who suggested an invasion of Stonehenge yesterday, but it seems Duma has devolved even further than most legislatures into mere bread and circuses. These men can't match Zhirnovsky's epic performances, but that's not going to stop them from auditioning.

Edit: if Russia does kill two million people, it won't be because of these jokers' plans.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1531301883628986368

"4 missiles and everything [both US coasts] will be wiped out"
"If we re-install their brains correctly"

I don't know if this is the same guy who suggested an invasion of Stonehenge yesterday, but it seems Duma has devolved even further than most legislatures into mere bread and circuses. These men can't match Zhirnovsky's epic performances, but that's not going to stop them from auditioning.

It's a rubber stamp parliament, what else are they supposed to do?

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/markos/status/1531469113570103296?s=20&t=jUly8iIlsYA7RWJ...


Looking at Russia's population pyramid shows why increasing the age limit for signing military contracts was necessary if the government wants to avoid mobilization:

This isn't talked about enough: unlike the USSR in the mid-20th century and the Russian Empire in earlier times, today's Russia has a catastrophically low birth rate (FWIW, so does Ukraine, but they're not the ones who instigated the war). Life expediencies are longer nowadays (though still shockingly short in Russia, especially for men, and work forces are much more specialized, meaning that instead of being mostly interchangeable farmers and factory workers, each soldier lost is another young man who can't later go on to become a programmer, plumber, technician, or business owner. Yet Putin is throwing away young men in the prime of life as though he's Stalin or Nicholas II. And it's quite telling that in a country of about 150 million, about 15% of whom are men 18-40, so 22.5 million or so of prime military eligibility, many of whom, lets face it, have poor employment or educational prospects, he struggles to find even a hundred thousand more willing to go and fight in Ukraine.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1531351463062130688

Has there still been no clarification??

I swear, this White House's communication is almost as bad as the previous.

"More background: The rocket systems the Biden administration is preparing to send to Ukraine are capable of firing different kinds of ammunition that reach a range of distances.

'While some of the longer-range weapons can fire 300 miles (or about 500 kilometers) or more, the systems can also launch rockets with a range of just a few dozen miles — not considered long-range weapons but still able to reach a greater distance than the howitzers the US has already sent to Ukraine.

'Biden's comments Monday leave open the possibility that the US could send the advanced, long-range rocket systems without the longest-range rockets."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1531592463688912896

[jaichind]

This is the Daily Telegraph defense editor.  I guess this is a lesson in not over extrapolating events, in either direction.


Also reminds me of

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Napoleon%27s_March

— 9th March, the Anthropophagus has quitted his den

— 10th, the Corsican Ogre has landed at Cape Juan

— 11th, the Tiger has arrived at Gap

— 12th, the Monster slept at Grenoble

— 13th, the Tyrant has passed through Lyons

— 14th, the Usurper is directing his steps towards Dijon, but the brave and loyal Burgundians have risen en masse and surrounded him on all sides

— 18th, Bonaparte is only sixty leagues from the capital; he has been fortunate enough to escape the hands of his pursuers

— 19th, Bonaparte is advancing with rapid steps, but he will never enter Paris

— 20th, Napoleon will, tomorrow, be under our ramparts

— 21st, the Emperor is at Fontainbleau

— 22nd, His Imperial and Royal Majesty, yesterday evening, arrived at the Tuileries, amidst the joyful acclamations of his devoted and faithful subjects.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This is the Daily Telegraph defense editor.  I guess this is a lesson in not over extrapolating events, in either direction.

We hope it's just him failing to keep things in perspective. It's quite possible, though, that he is merely taking advantage of his readers' own failure to do so, because clickbait like his headlines sell better.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1531301883628986368

"4 missiles and everything [both US coasts] will be wiped out"
"If we re-install their brains correctly"

I don't know if this is the same guy who suggested an invasion of Stonehenge yesterday, but it seems Duma has devolved even further than most legislatures into mere bread and circuses. These men can't match Zhirnovsky's epic performances, but that's not going to stop them from auditioning.

Edit: if Russia does kill two million people, it won't be because of these jokers' plans.

Talk of invading the US like this is utter madness.
If these (alleged, I can't be sure if they are serious, or just bluster) plans, which make Pinky and Brain look utterly subdued by comparison, somehow reach fruition, the loss of two million Ukrainians will, against all odds, be the least of the world's problems.

[Torie]

Some Brit analyst on DW TV just said that the West will need to open up Odessa to shipping with a convoy. He said Ukraine as well as the West's need for food is not viable if Ukraine is a landlocked nation. So at some point the main stage will be aquatic rather than the fields of the Dombas.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1531301883628986368

"4 missiles and everything [both US coasts] will be wiped out"
"If we re-install their brains correctly"

I don't know if this is the same guy who suggested an invasion of Stonehenge yesterday, but it seems Duma has devolved even further than most legislatures into mere bread and circuses. These men can't match Zhirnovsky's epic performances, but that's not going to stop them from auditioning.

Edit: if Russia does kill two million people, it won't be because of these jokers' plans.

Talk of invading the US like this is utter madness.
If these (alleged, I can't be sure if they are serious, or just bluster) plans, which make Pinky and Brain look utterly subdued by comparison, somehow reach fruition, the loss of two million Ukrainians will, against all odds, be the least of the world's problems.

That figure sounds like how many Russians would survive than Ukrainians would die in such a scenario.

[Woody]

Head of Luhansk:
https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1531718472517967874?cxt=HHwWhICzpbv14ME...
https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1531687818094944256?cxt=HHwWgIC9hZL90sE...

[Frodo]

France, Germany, and Italy most notably are the weakest links in the Western alliance:

Cracks Appear in Western Front Against Russia's War in Ukraine

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

France, Germany, and Italy most notably are the weakest links in the Western alliance:

Cracks Appear in Western Front Against Russia's War in Ukraine

Hungary is arguably worse because of its apparent role in weakening/delaying the EU sanctions. The economic measures were more impactful than the seemingly small military support from France and Italy. As the article points out, even Estonia's aid has been more substantial than Germany's direct aid (although that doesn't count ring swaps), and France's and Italy's aid was probably even smaller judging from the (admittedly incomplete) picture of what's been published.

At the end of the day, if France decides not to deliver 7 howitzers, it's not going to be able to exert nearly as much pressure on Kyiv as e.g. Poland, which has apparently sent 200+ tanks. The Ukraine-skeptic countries tended to be at least a little cooler on aiding Ukraine from the start, and this in turn reduced their medium-term leverage over its ability to defend itself.

This may change if the big economies start trying to circumvent the sanctions, but they won't be able to fully lift them (IIRC) without falling foul of any EU member state which still wants to veto any end to the restrictions.

[Torie]

My fantasy, is for Biden to get on the horn to France and Germany (yes, I love Italian food and men but ...), and tell them if they don't get on board with the project of defeating the "evil empire regional autocracy," to the extent they provide Ukraine with less than what is required, the US and UK will provide more, and more means more lethal and long range than what would be provided than otherwise if the twin selfish ones, stepped up to the plate. So the more they are pussies, the more their worst fears might just be realized. The US and the UK have a "special relationship" for a reason, and it is more, far more, than just language.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1531301883628986368

"4 missiles and everything [both US coasts] will be wiped out"
"If we re-install their brains correctly"

I don't know if this is the same guy who suggested an invasion of Stonehenge yesterday, but it seems Duma has devolved even further than most legislatures into mere bread and circuses. These men can't match Zhirnovsky's epic performances, but that's not going to stop them from auditioning.

Edit: if Russia does kill two million people, it won't be because of these jokers' plans.

Talk of invading the US like this is utter madness.
If these (alleged, I can't be sure if they are serious, or just bluster) plans, which make Pinky and Brain look utterly subdued by comparison, somehow reach fruition, the loss of two million Ukrainians will, against all odds, be the least of the world's problems.

That figure sounds like how many Russians would survive than Ukrainians would die in such a scenario.

True.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1531681170781618176?s=20&t=DixxRA1...

[Isaak]

I think it is paramount to consider the difficult situation of Germany, Italy et al. and the political and economic stakes at play. From a U.S. perspective, it is always easy to come up with maximalist (e.g., "Ukraine should retake Crimea as well!") demands since Washington, D.C. is thousands of miles away and there is no dependence on Russian energy.

Berlin, Rome, and Paris, however, are much closer to Moscow and much more strongly affected by the fallout of the war. Consequently, they have an interest in peace and, as much as this is possible, a normalization of the situation (which would probably be a return to the status quo ante). Neither an endless prolongation of the war nor a serious destabilization of the Russian regime helps them.

In practice, this means that they support the Ukrainian efforts (Germany does so to a degree that would have been unthinkable a few months ago) but clearly prefer a solution at the negotiation table and refuse to give Zelenskyy a carte blanche. I don't see how this is wrong given their predicament.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I think it is paramount to consider the difficult situation of Germany, Italy et al. and the political and economic stakes at play. From a U.S. perspective, it is always easy to come up with maximalist (e.g., "Ukraine should retake Crimea as well!") demands since Washington, D.C. is thousands of miles away and there is no dependence on Russian energy.

Berlin, Rome, and Paris, however, are much closer to Moscow and much more strongly affected by the fallout of the war. Consequently, they have an interest in peace and, as much as this is possible, a normalization of the situation (which would probably be a return to the status quo ante). Neither an endless prolongation of the war nor a serious destabilization of the Russian regime helps them.

In practice, this means that they support the Ukrainian efforts (Germany does so to a degree that would have been unthinkable a few months ago) but clearly prefer a solution at the negotiation table and refuse to give Zelenskyy a carte blanche. I don't see how this is wrong given their predicament.

There’s a rationale for their attempts to get a negotiated settlement, but one is more likely to be achieved if Ukraine gets close to the status quo ante. A sustainable peace almost certainly cannot be achieved if Ukraine cannot (at least) fend off further Russian attacks. Given this - and the desire to shorten any war of attrition - it makes the most sense to deliver more aid to Ukraine.

Germany, in particular, has substantial credibility at stake. During the financial crisis, they demanded that other EU member states impose harmful austerity measures to counter poor the results of irresponsible economic policy. Now the shoe is on the other foot, and their pre-existing policies are not just unwise but necessary for Russia’s war effort.

[nicholas.slaydon]

I think it is paramount to consider the difficult situation of Germany, Italy et al. and the political and economic stakes at play. From a U.S. perspective, it is always easy to come up with maximalist (e.g., "Ukraine should retake Crimea as well!") demands since Washington, D.C. is thousands of miles away and there is no dependence on Russian energy.

Berlin, Rome, and Paris, however, are much closer to Moscow and much more strongly affected by the fallout of the war. Consequently, they have an interest in peace and, as much as this is possible, a normalization of the situation (which would probably be a return to the status quo ante). Neither an endless prolongation of the war nor a serious destabilization of the Russian regime helps them.

In practice, this means that they support the Ukrainian efforts (Germany does so to a degree that would have been unthinkable a few months ago) but clearly prefer a solution at the negotiation table and refuse to give Zelenskyy a carte blanche. I don't see how this is wrong given their predicament.

The is just short term thinking from the political officials in these countries. Which solution to this war will cause greater peace and stability in the region? A Ukrainian victory or Russian appeasement? The simple fact of the matter is that if Europe wants greater peace and stability looking decades ahead, they will have to sacrifice their immediate comforts, and suck in their gut and muddle through the temporary downturns that will come from their years of reliance on Russia.
 
Likewise, I agree that they have a vested interest in peace, but through their short sightedness they may simply push Ukraine into a settlement that appeases Russia now, but will Russia be appeased 20 or 30 years from now? A negotiated settlement with Russia is simply showing that the Western Alliance is too soft and committed to their luxuries that they are not willing to defend the ideas that they constantly pontificate about. The only way to guarantee a true and lasting peace is to stand firm behind our values, defend a country that has been invaded by its neighbor, and show the world that baseless agression will not be tolerated. If that message is not sent loud and clear, Russia will take note, and will continue further agressions against their neighbors, and if the political leaders in Germany, France, and Italy are too near sighted to see that, then they are truly lost and helpless.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it is paramount to consider the difficult situation of Germany, Italy et al. and the political and economic stakes at play. From a U.S. perspective, it is always easy to come up with maximalist (e.g., "Ukraine should retake Crimea as well!") demands since Washington, D.C. is thousands of miles away and there is no dependence on Russian energy.

Berlin, Rome, and Paris, however, are much closer to Moscow and much more strongly affected by the fallout of the war. Consequently, they have an interest in peace and, as much as this is possible, a normalization of the situation (which would probably be a return to the status quo ante). Neither an endless prolongation of the war nor a serious destabilization of the Russian regime helps them.

In practice, this means that they support the Ukrainian efforts (Germany does so to a degree that would have been unthinkable a few months ago) but clearly prefer a solution at the negotiation table and refuse to give Zelenskyy a carte blanche. I don't see how this is wrong given their predicament.

I'm French-Italian (I live in France and have family and friends in both countries) and I think we should have cut off the gas on February 24. To even dare to compare the economic and material inconveniences we would face to the plight of the Ukrainian people is utterly obscene and alien to me. I know I say that from a position of relative privilege, but there are some causes worth making real, personal sacrifices for, and if this isn't one of them, what is?

[Pericles]

Western Europeans should know that when you have an aggressive dictator on the Continent, you need to show uncompromising strength and not engage in appeasement. The sovereignty of European nations will only be secure if Russia loses the war or at least grabs bits of Ukraine at a prohibitively high military and economic cost. Putin has gone so far with his aggression that the assumption should now be that if he is removed from power, his replacement would be better, while before February destabilising his regime was less justifiable. The Russian elite would also have an incentive to change the policy if Russia is crippled by the West. If Putin keeps power and doesn't change his policy, the Baltic states and Russia's other neighbours would benefit from a long war in Ukraine where Russia can't just rebuild stronger than ever.