Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 879476 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
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« Reply #11650 on: May 25, 2022, 03:51:05 PM »
Ukrainian court sentences Russian tank commander to life in prison: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61549569
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Storr
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« Reply #11651 on: May 25, 2022, 03:56:03 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2022, 04:27:14 PM by Storr »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on May 25, 2022, 05:39:57 AM
I didn't post the Ukrainian claim when it first appeared, but there is now video evidence that Russia may be having a few problems with the (short-term) supply of tanks:



They're better than nothing, but the bottom of the barrel is slowly being approached. The restoration of more modern tanks in deep storage is presumably too slow to keep up with the rate of losses and (at the start of the invasion) Russia had significantly fewer of these than their non-obsolete tanks.


These T-62s are probably the most modern stored/reserve tanks in "ready to go" condition. The remaining newer tanks in reserve, which haven't already been deployed, likely need significant repairs and restoration. Thus, Russia is having to use these museum pieces.

It's noteworthy to mention that the T-62 has a four man crew, needing a loader. It also uses nonstandard 115mm shells.  All Soviet/Russian tanks built after the T-62 have three man crews and use 125mm rounds.



The Ukrainian General Staff were on the money:

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Person Man
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« Reply #11652 on: May 25, 2022, 06:42:17 PM »
Quote from: Storr on May 25, 2022, 03:56:03 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on May 25, 2022, 05:39:57 AM
I didn't post the Ukrainian claim when it first appeared, but there is now video evidence that Russia may be having a few problems with the (short-term) supply of tanks:



They're better than nothing, but the bottom of the barrel is slowly being approached. The restoration of more modern tanks in deep storage is presumably too slow to keep up with the rate of losses and (at the start of the invasion) Russia had significantly fewer of these than their non-obsolete tanks.


These T-62s are probably the most modern stored/reserve tanks in "ready to go" condition. The remaining newer tanks in reserve, which haven't already been deployed, likely need significant repairs and restoration. Thus, Russia is having to use these museum pieces.

It's noteworthy to mention that the T-62 has a four man crew, needing a loader. It also uses nonstandard 115mm shells.  All Soviet/Russian tanks built after the T-62 have three man crews and use 125mm rounds.



The Ukrainian General Staff were on the money:



So basically the Russian Army has technologically backslided 50 years?
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #11653 on: May 25, 2022, 09:00:03 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2022, 09:03:10 PM by Obama-Biden Democrat »
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on May 25, 2022, 05:18:23 AM
I've been the most bullish person here on Ukraine's long-term prospects in this war. But if we see more of this week over the coming ones, I will find it hard to maintain such bullishness, probably.
Ukraine may have a numerical advantage or gain one soon, but said numerical advantage could not necessarily be as important to the outcome as I assumed.

Russia still has the air and artillery advantage. Ukraine needs to be sent hundreds of modern artillery pieces, not dozens. Artillery is still the king of the battlefield. The aid needs to be increased even more.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #11654 on: May 25, 2022, 09:08:17 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2022, 09:11:27 PM by Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil »
Quote from: Obama-Biden Democrat on May 25, 2022, 09:00:03 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on May 25, 2022, 05:18:23 AM
I've been the most bullish person here on Ukraine's long-term prospects in this war. But if we see more of this week over the coming ones, I will find it hard to maintain such bullishness, probably.
Ukraine may have a numerical advantage or gain one soon, but said numerical advantage could not necessarily be as important to the outcome as I assumed.

Russia still has the air and artillery advantage. Ukraine needs to be sent hundreds of modern artillery pieces, not dozens. Artillery is still the king of the battlefield. The aid needs to be increased even more.
Considering that Russian artillery is probably better than ours, it's not like we're likely to lose some competitive advantage if any artillery pieces given to Ukraine fall into Russian hands, right? Because that's the single biggest argument against a lot of aid that you could possibly give Ukraine.
Our R&D is top-of-the-line, but we're also quite stingy in how we give what we make out. It'd be darkly ironic if Russia has American advanced artillery when a nation like India or Turkey (who fit well into existing coalitions against China and Russia respectively) doesn't.
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Storr
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« Reply #11655 on: May 25, 2022, 10:21:08 PM »
Grain of salt, etc.
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« Reply #11656 on: May 25, 2022, 11:13:32 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 25, 2022, 06:59:21 AM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on May 25, 2022, 05:18:23 AM
I've been the most bullish person here on Ukraine's long-term prospects in this war. But if we see more of this week over the coming ones, I will find it hard to maintain such bullishness, probably.
Ukraine may have a numerical advantage or gain one soon, but said numerical advantage could not necessarily be as important to the outcome as I assumed.

Well, they have succeeded in preserving a free country, which is what matters most.

Ukrainian high command adopting basically the same "trading space for time" strategy with Severodonetsk that they did with Mariupol would indicate that they agree, and that conserving that victory is still the paramount Ukrainian war aim. I don't think even the more-Putinite-than-Putin hacks on Russian state TV are talking about completely overrunning Ukraine from Luhansk to Uzhhorod anymore.
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Storr
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« Reply #11657 on: May 26, 2022, 02:55:28 AM »
Orwellian:

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Woody
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« Reply #11658 on: May 26, 2022, 03:18:14 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2022, 03:21:29 AM by SirWoodbury »
Good news, as mentioned by Storr above.. Russia withdrew from the road, most likely trying to cut the road off by taking a settlement first (Bilohorivka?), then move on to the open road.. For how long UA can hold out, I don't know. Shelling happening, but still possible to move supplies for the time being.

Popasna front in the southwest seeing some RU advance, unclear how much.
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jaichind
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« Reply #11659 on: May 26, 2022, 04:00:59 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/26/russias-central-bank-cuts-key-interest-citing-decreased-stability-risks.html

"Russia’s central bank cuts key interest rate to 11%, citing decreased stability risks"

Russian Central Bank lowers rates from 14% to 11%.  Even though 2022 Russia CPI will clearly be around 20% that was mostly due to a massive MoM spike in March.  Russia's April MoM CPI came in at 1.56% which implies long-term inflation of around 9%-11%.  In that sense, even at 11% Russian rates are still more hawkish than USA rates right now which are still well below the latest CPI MoM implied long-run inflation of around 4%-5%.
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Woody
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« Reply #11660 on: May 26, 2022, 08:39:06 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2022, 11:30:04 AM by SirWoodbury »
Supposedly Russians have advanced numerous km through the M03 highway, from Svitlodarsk to the north in Klinove and Pokrosvke.. near Bakhmut.



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Woody
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« Reply #11661 on: May 26, 2022, 11:30:47 AM »
Ukrainians are reinforcing the city itself?:


What the Ukrainians are hoping for:


In Lyman:
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Woody
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« Reply #11662 on: May 26, 2022, 11:41:03 AM »
Russification/How far Russians are willing to go for simple things like this:
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Person Man
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« Reply #11663 on: May 26, 2022, 12:00:37 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2022, 03:13:11 PM by Person Man »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on May 26, 2022, 11:30:47 AM
Ukrainians are reinforcing the city itself?:


What the Ukrainians are hoping for:


In Lyman:



That’s kind of bad ass. It makes sense that they are retreating from the countryside. This is a good way of hobbling them.
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Woody
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« Reply #11664 on: May 26, 2022, 03:00:27 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2022, 03:11:15 PM by SirWoodbury »
Lyman has fallen to RU. Finally some confirmation from Arestovych (Gregor Martin, Neil Hauer OSINT, etc). The remaining UA forces withdrew.
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Woody
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« Reply #11665 on: May 26, 2022, 03:04:02 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2022, 03:13:00 PM by SirWoodbury »
Earlier today there were reports of Russians advancing a few kms towards surrounding settlements around Bakhmut (Pokrovske and Klinove). Now confirmed by the UA General Staff.. RU conquered Mednaya Ruda on the way there.. from the Popasna direction.

https://t.me/UkraineNow/12318

On livemap:

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/26-may-russian-troops-conducting-offensive-towards-komyshuvakha
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Woody
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« Reply #11666 on: May 26, 2022, 03:15:41 PM »
I recommend using this livemap: https://deepstatemap.live/

They update it very fast compared to the standard livemap we are all used to. There is an Ukrainian and English version.
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« Reply #11667 on: May 26, 2022, 04:46:16 PM »
The greatest own goal in history. Most Ukrainians see Russia positively (and would have continued to do so) until Putin invaded.
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« Reply #11668 on: May 26, 2022, 07:33:08 PM »
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« Reply #11669 on: May 26, 2022, 08:20:17 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2022, 08:24:57 PM by Logical »
HIMARS on the way! This may be a gamechanger for Ukrainian offensive abilities as they would outrange all Russian MLRS systems when firing advanced MGM-140 ATACMS.
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Storr
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« Reply #11670 on: May 26, 2022, 08:34:23 PM »
Quote from: Logical on May 26, 2022, 04:46:16 PM
The greatest own goal in history. Most Ukrainians see Russia positively (and would have continued to do so) until Putin invaded.


Who knew "your language and history is made up" wouldn't be a convincing argument?
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #11671 on: May 26, 2022, 10:32:56 PM »

Losing Lyman sucks and the battle of Severodonetsk is going to be ugly but Ukraine’s overal defense is still holding strong
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pppolitics
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« Reply #11672 on: May 26, 2022, 11:03:00 PM »
Finally!
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« Reply #11673 on: May 26, 2022, 11:11:06 PM »
I refuse on principle to post tweets on the secular blog, but Zelensky's economic advisor, Oleh Ustenko, says that Ukraine has enough grain reserves to last the world through the rest of the calendar year if they can get them through the Black Sea (or, one assumes, overland to a Romanian or Bulgarian port).
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #11674 on: May 27, 2022, 07:55:28 AM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on May 25, 2022, 05:18:23 AM
I've been the most bullish person here on Ukraine's long-term prospects in this war. But if we see more of this week over the coming ones, I will find it hard to maintain such bullishness, probably.
Ukraine may have a numerical advantage or gain one soon, but said numerical advantage could not necessarily be as important to the outcome as I assumed.
If it helps I can give you a breakdown on why the Russia success they enjoyed this week is not that big of a deal. Essentially the Russian goal for this front is surrounding and cutting off Severodonetsk via Popasna. In Popasna the overall advance of the Russian troops over the past week was 5-7 km. However, to completely encircle Severodonetsk another 20-22 kilometers are required. The issue for Russia has been they haven’t been to go that far due to all of there internal and structural issues. Essentially, Russia can only really move under 10km in about then they have to pause and reset. So, due to these pacing issues they won’t be able to encircle Severodonetsk at a pace quick enough to cut off the Ukraine forces before they get ample time to escape said encirclement attempt.
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