Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 877768 times)
Isaak
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« on: April 12, 2022, 09:05:03 AM »

Zelenskyi has declared German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (who used to be soft on Russia until February) persona non grata in Ukraine.

What? Is there any source for this?

I would also disagree with this 'soft'/'hard' ascriptions. Steinmeier has never been a pro-Russia hack like Schroeder but someone whose position (yes to economic cooperation!) probably resembled those of the average German quite closely.
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Isaak
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2022, 07:23:40 PM »

[...]
While Germany is not doing enough in opinion, I don't think this is approriate. Not just has Steinmeier shown self-awareness in recent weeks, he's the head of state of a country that has still given more aid than any other.
Disagree. Frank-Walter Steinmeier is the representative of the failed German Eastern policy of the last years. His Steinmeier formula was a gift to Russian interests, he was parts of both governments which issued NordStream 1 & 2 against the warning of Eastern Europe and just roughly 2 years after the annexation of Crimea he was talking in Yekaterinburg about the importance of Russia-Germany relations (where he received an honor doctorate before).
One can argue about that Ukrainian ambassador Andriy Melnyk is somewhat abrasive, but he has every to be so after none of his warnings and messages were heard over the last years - Steinmeier even complained about Melnyk in 2019 (or 2020?) to Zelenskyi which is an absolute disgraceful move - And as proven, Melnyk was right and Steinmeier was wrong.

Wulff resigned as President for borrowing 400 € to a friend - If Germany wants to be taken seriously again - because right now, Germany's reputation is in the sh**tter, and deservingly so - Steinmeier should just quit.

Also, compared to other Eastern European countries such as Estonia or Poland, Germany's help was rather abysmal and when it comes to sanctions, it was Germany that blocked strengthening then - Remember the Swift discussion?

It's not that Steinmeier was wrong, which he admitted, I still consider it disrespectful to declare a the head of state of an ally that gave billions in aid persona non grata. It's not very wise diplomatically and may undermine the cause in the long run. I have a feeling this decision is largely viewed negative here across the political spectrum.

And Melnyk, well, while I understand his frustration, he should at least tone down his rhetoric. If he wants more pressure on leaders, fine, but then he needs to win public support. And I'm afraid the he accomplishes the opposite here.

Agree! Couldn't believe it until I saw the link. This is a major diplomatic affront and the most stupid thing the Zelensky administration could have done. It really does not matter if you believe Steinmeier is/was pro-Russia or whatever - this is completely meaningless. He still is the (a) highest representative of (b) the arguably most powerful EU member state, and (c) a seasoned diplomat who has already admitted that he was mistaken in the past. So you are supposed to treat him with respect. This is a short-sighted and childish maneuver that will only complicate German-Ukrainian relations.

As does Melnyk. The guy behaves like a colonial officer and his hyperaggressive tone is evidently counterproductive. I know of quite a few people who have formed a negative opinion about Ukraine just because of him.
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Isaak
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« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2022, 12:21:03 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2022, 12:27:40 PM by Isaak »

Steinmeier himself is completely meaningless. He's a figurehead without any real political influence whose visit would have been nothing than an empty talk photo op.

I'm not sure if you're aware of how diplomacy works. And I think you underestimate both the power of "photo ops" and public sentiment about how the highest representative of Germany is being treated by someone asking for his country's help. There are certain rules and conventions, and the Ukrainians have violated them in a way that is irritating at the very least.

What could he have brought apart from some signs of "solidarity"?

What do all the other Heads of State bring? What did Michael Roth & Co. bring who visited just recently? But let us turn the question around: What is the advantage of rejecting Steinmeier? Because I don't see any.

Can you defeat Russia with solidarity?

Well, you certainly cannot defeat anyone by publicly turning against your allies.

The colonial officer here is Germany, knowing once again what's best for others - "Am deutschen Wesen soll die Welt gewesen".

Not sure what you're referring to. But the colonial officer is clearly Melnyk - a guy who insults leading German politicians every second day and still hasn't learn the difference between to ask and to demand. If anyone has deserved to be persona non grata, it's him.

Or how else do you explain Steinmeier's behavior, who never really cared for Eastern European concerns (like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia) and recommended Ukraine what they should do with Donbas in his toxic Steinmeier-Formula, which paved the way to legimitize Russia's behavior?
Maybe this is not childish but very well thought through, because Ukrainians don't wanna see the guy who told them like some colonial ruler how to split up their country and who shared homoromantic moments with Sergey Lavrov in their country that's being literally slaughtered and raped right now for a photo op appointment? It's an affront of Steinmeier to not consider that maybe he shouldn't show up unless Germany finally delivers - his advisors should have known that, and maybe he would've been welcomed after some significant progress is achieved.

I don't see the argument, to be honest. Again, Steinmeier has already made clear that he was mistaken in the past. And it's pretty meaningless if he went to bed with Lavrov or whatever - today he is President and not FM anymore. Not member of a government or of a party but representative of Germany as such (and to be treated accordingly).

It's also not like he wanted to do this on his own. He was supposed to be part of a larger delegation of European Head of States after all.

Germany sticks out for delaying, thinking, being busy with itself and blocking right now. Scholz can show otherwise if he comes to Ukraine, instead of empty calls of "We are with you". Steinmeier's visit would've brought nothing. Among Ukrainians, Germany is seen as 5th most hostile country right now right after Russia, Belarus, China and Hungary. Maybe, just maybe, there's some very legit reasons for that.

It is the "5th most hostile country" out of how many countries people were asked for? A dozen? But if Ukrainians really feel like this, I am sorry for them because...

...Germany has received several hundred thousand refugees, the highest number of all countries not directly bordering Ukraine. In addition, there has been major legislative action aimed at helping these refugees in a non-bureaucratic way.
...Germany has not vetoed a single sanction at the EU level.
...Germany holds strong pro-Ukrainian positions in all relevant international bodies.
...Germany did send weapons to Ukraine, something that would have been unimaginable half a year ago and marks a break with key principles of German foreign policy.
...in the years prior to the Russian invasion, no country (except the US) has given more direct humanitarian aid to Ukraine than Germany.

If this is hostile, I don't know how to call the position of at least 75% of the international community: countries that have implemented no sanctions at all, continue to trade with Russia, and, in some cases, even refuse to formally condemn the Russian invasion.

Yeah I know enough people who have a negative opinion about Germany thanks to the behavior of its people in charge.

Again, there is absolutely no reason for that. People should be grateful for what Germany is doing and has done in the past. If they think they are entitled to sulk just because Scholz is not interested in completely crushing his country's industry - well, it's their problem.
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Isaak
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2022, 06:21:01 PM »

I think it is paramount to consider the difficult situation of Germany, Italy et al. and the political and economic stakes at play. From a U.S. perspective, it is always easy to come up with maximalist (e.g., "Ukraine should retake Crimea as well!") demands since Washington, D.C. is thousands of miles away and there is no dependence on Russian energy.

Berlin, Rome, and Paris, however, are much closer to Moscow and much more strongly affected by the fallout of the war. Consequently, they have an interest in peace and, as much as this is possible, a normalization of the situation (which would probably be a return to the status quo ante). Neither an endless prolongation of the war nor a serious destabilization of the Russian regime helps them.

In practice, this means that they support the Ukrainian efforts (Germany does so to a degree that would have been unthinkable a few months ago) but clearly prefer a solution at the negotiation table and refuse to give Zelenskyy a carte blanche. I don't see how this is wrong given their predicament.
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Isaak
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2022, 09:11:34 PM »

It is Russians having fun at Eiffel tower and St. Marks square while their country genocides.


This sounds a little extreme. There is nothing wrong with private citizens having fun and enjoying their holidays - they are not the ones who are responsible for what is happening in Ukraine.

 
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Isaak
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2022, 01:56:36 PM »

How would the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would look like ? Huge reparations ? Or maybe annexing some russian territories?

Status quo ante bellum at best. Russia will never pay reparations and annexing Russian territory... I mean, come one. That's not even remotely realistic (and would not be justified by international law either).
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Isaak
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2022, 09:24:32 AM »

Putin in his speech asked the Russian people if they want to live in a country where mother and father become parent 1 and parent 2.  This mimics some of the themes of Giorgia Meloni in some of her speeches.  It is clear Putin is also trying to appeal to the populist Conservative Right in the EU.

And still, the "populist Conservative Right in the EU" was never as anti-Putin and pro-NATO as today...

It's a stupid rhetorical platitude. I don't think that there is anything more behind it.
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Isaak
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2022, 05:40:14 AM »

It is ironic that given how many Russo-Persian wars took place between the 1650s and 1820s now Iran emerge as a key ally for Russia.

Fascist Russia and Theocratic Fascist Iran agree on one thing: the western world order of democracy and human rights, not to mention US power, must be overturned.

Neither of those two regimes are even remotely close to fascism.

"Not even remotely close".

Imagine unironically believing this.

But it's true. Neither Russia nor Iran are fascist in any meaningful sense of the word. Pretending otherwise shows either (a) a lack of knowledge about fascism, (b) a lack of knowledge about these countries, or (c) both.

Even terms like 'theocracy' are thrown around way too casually. Iran is a hybrid regime with democratic elements at worst; a proper theocracy looks completely differently.
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Isaak
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Germany


« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2023, 12:17:36 PM »

The SPD's Michael Müller – once the Governing Mayor of Berlin, now an influential Member of the Bundestag – has spoken out in favor of facilitating negotiations between Russia and Ukraine rather than further escalating the conflict:

"We need to keep our lines of communication open. We must be open for dialogue. It is very sad that the Greens and the FDP don't understand this."

Seems as if intra-SPD support for the Ukrainian cause is increasingly eroding. Scholz is not to be envied.
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Isaak
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2023, 12:36:49 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2023, 04:32:14 PM by Isaak »

SPIEGEL reports that a company (which would amount to 14 tanks) of Leopard 2A6 will be send to Ukraine by Germany, and that export requests from other countries will also be approved.

I suppose Scholz' arms are so twisted now that they have practically been pulled out of their sockets by the Greens, the FDP, the media, Poland, the Baltic states, and the U.S.

I never understood his caution here. Haven't we still not learned that appeasement politics doesn't work with Putin? He only understands strength and determination. It was definitely no unsolvable logistical problem.

Most importantly, this looks like a political defeat for Scholz now, when he could have been a leader instead.

I disagree.

It is well known that leading figures within the SPD's parliamentary group are quite uncomfortable with the whole idea of delivering tanks to Ukraine. Just think about Rolf Mützenich (who attacked Scholz's critics today for their "premature judgment") and other influential 'anti-militarists' who have the power to cause a lot of intra-party trouble. Scholz cannot afford to ignore them just to please the Americans and his coalition partners. (Not even to speak about public opinion being divided on this matter.)

To be honest, it's amusing that people still think that Olaf Scholz doesn't get it. He absolutely does.
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