Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

Why does Biden always disappoint?

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1531267316117389315

He should send Ukraine long-range missiles specifically for striking inside Russia.

[Frodo]

Russian military suffers ‘eroding professionalism’ as Ukraine fighting continues

[Omega21]

Why does Biden always disappoint?

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1531267316117389315

He should send Ukraine long-range missiles specifically for striking inside Russia.

Not a big Biden fan, but I am pretty sure the administration has a better idea of what they are doing compared to random forum users.

Would you really send them a TBM that can reach Moscow etc.?

It took a few bombs on Berlin for Hitler to order a leveling of London, you don't think a few missiles on Moscow could end up with Putin decimating central Kiev with FOABs?

UA is fighting to preserve its territorial integrity and they don't need longer-range ballistic missiles to achieve that goal.

[pppolitics]

Why does Biden always disappoint?

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1531267316117389315

He should send Ukraine long-range missiles specifically for striking inside Russia.

Not a big Biden fan, but I am pretty sure the administration has a better idea of what they are doing compared to random forum users.

Would you really send them a TBM that can reach Moscow etc.?

It took a few bombs on Berlin for Hitler to order a leveling of London, you don't think a few missiles on Moscow could end up with Putin decimating central Kiev with FOABs?

UA is fighting to preserve its territorial integrity and they don't need longer-range ballistic missiles to achieve that goal.

This is a war.

Yes, there are risks.

Biden doesn't have the stomach for it.

We have already seen for 3 months how pathetic the Kremlin's paper tiger military really is.

The only thing keeping it from being wiped out is Kyiv's lack of weapons.

[CumbrianLefty]

Point is, the US are still going to be sending Ukraine lots of highly useful stuff.

Just not this particular system for the reasons stated.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Also, lol:
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531221313750179841

Sentiments like this can be both real and misleading if they're cherry-picked or otherwise unrepresentative.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531344402534260737

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531345081789202436

Severodonetsk likely won't hold out for long, maybe a couple of weeks, but in the end, it is not of huge strategic importance anyway.

I hope my most realistic expectation holds true, that being if the Russians manage to take the Donbas they are then too exhausted to take any fresh territory thereafter.

Obviously would be best if they just completely stalled as it is, but they really still have too much equipment & troops, so I think they can eke out their "Donbas liberation" or whatever they call it.

This is not a bad outcome, as it would mean that Mykolaiv and Odesa are safe, which are far more critical than delapitated former industrial zones.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531344402534260737
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531345081789202436
Severodonetsk likely won't hold out for long, maybe a couple of weeks, but in the end, it is not of huge strategic importance anyway.

I hope my most realistic expectation holds true, that being if the Russians manage to take the Donbas they are then too exhausted to take any fresh territory thereafter.

Obviously would be best if they just completely stalled as it is, but they really still have too much equipment & troops, so I think they can eke out their "Donbas liberation" or whatever they call it.

This is not a bad outcome, as it would mean that Mykolaiv and Odesa are safe, which are far more critical than delapitated former industrial zones.

I think Russia will exhaust its offensive capabilities somewhere in this Donbas offensive, but there is a naïveté in Western political classes in assuming it’d be one thing to take Severodonetsk and another to take a town of similar size that happened to be just outside the provinicial borders of Donetsk and Luhansk. They took Izium despite it being in Kharkiv - why wouldn’t they push further if they could? Russia is unlikely to seek an off-ramp until it can’t take any more land, and trying to calibrate aid to be just enough to halt an offensive is an arrogant strategy fraught with what should be obvious risk.

Only yesterday, the “Governor” in Kherson stressed the importance of taking Mykolaiv to make Russian control of his own province secure. The analyses I’ve read suggest they won’t be able to do that, but I don’t see why they won’t try until Ukraine can clearly and reliably counter or somehow exhaust Russia’s artillery-based offensive(s). It is in Ukraine’s interest to prevent even a failed assault on places like Mykolaiv, as they’d kill a lot of people and damage the economy.

[Logical]

Also, lol:
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531221313750179841

Sentiments like this can be both real and misleading if they're cherry-picked or otherwise unrepresentative.

Indeed. Complaining is the number 1 past time of soldiers. Just because they complain does not mean their morale is poor. When we reach the point of breaking we will start seeing large units deserting and abandoning their positions but so far we have not seen anything like that.

[Logical]

What is left of Rubizhne. It would take decades to rebuild this. Most of the population will not even return.
https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1531329598474043392

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Also, lol:
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531221313750179841

Sentiments like this can be both real and misleading if they're cherry-picked or otherwise unrepresentative.

Indeed. Complaining is the number 1 past time of soldiers. Just because they complain does not mean their morale is poor. When we reach the point of breaking we will start seeing large units deserting and abandoning their positions but so far we have not seen anything like that.

Morale can (and is likely to) be poor without it being that poor. Whichever side a soldier is on in the Donbas, they’ve likely been deployed for too long, they’ve probably got tinnitus from the artillery, they’re spending their days in miserable trenches and fighting over towns that are collapsing all around them. And (except for the troops who come from the Donbas - i.e. not most of them) they’re fighting for people they don’t even know, who have been ground down by living near the frontlines for 8 years.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Also, lol:
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531221313750179841

Sentiments like this can be both real and misleading if they're cherry-picked or otherwise unrepresentative.

Indeed. Complaining is the number 1 past time of soldiers. Just because they complain does not mean their morale is poor. When we reach the point of breaking we will start seeing large units deserting and abandoning their positions but so far we have not seen anything like that.

The fact that he's presenting Igor Girkin tweets as fact is also suggestive, even if those particular Igor Girkin tweets happen to be true.

[Woody]

Also, lol:
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531221313750179841

Sentiments like this can be both real and misleading if they're cherry-picked or otherwise unrepresentative.

Indeed. Complaining is the number 1 past time of soldiers. Just because they complain does not mean their morale is poor. When we reach the point of breaking we will start seeing large units deserting and abandoning their positions but so far we have not seen anything like that.

The fact that he's presenting Igor Girkin tweets as fact is also suggestive, even if those particular Igor Girkin tweets happen to be true.

That's not the real Igor Girkin lol. It's a pro ukrainian guy that took his name as a way to mock him. That user has been active with that handle and posted about the conflict since 2014.

[Woody]

Wherever there is a big battle, you can always count on the Kadyrovites to be there for a photo shoot:

https://twitter.com/Levi_godman/status/1531363740871966721

[Woody]

Anyways:
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531364938924580866?cxt=HHwWhICz4YyTwMAqAA...

There is relevantly quietness in these videos. People are speculating that Ukrainians are withdrawing from Severeodonetsk all together. Unsure about the equipment since most of the bridges are destroyed, either be left behind or destroyed probably.

Lysychansk will be a good defensive position with the river crossing making it difficult for Russians to cross, but the city will still be highly vulnerable to artillery.

[Storr]

Not sure if Davydiv Brid counts as a city though. It has 1200 residents.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1531378983987777537?s=20&t=r69dDLIr_...

This being Ukraine, there are two places named Mykolaivka in Kherson Oblast:

https://twitter.com/ExScientia_Vera/status/1531321296990228482?s=20&t=r69dDL...

[Logical]

Important thread on the French way of thinking.
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1531289886099132416
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1531289894466863106
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1531289899025973250

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1531351463062130688

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1531351463062130688

Has there still been no clarification??

I swear, this White House's communication is almost as bad as the previous.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1531377307046318084?s=20&t=yRxbnT6b...

[NewYorkExpress]

Frederic Leclerc-Imhoff, a journalist for BFM TV was shot and killed near Lyssychansk.

A French journalist has been shot and killed in Ukraine, according to French President Emmanuel Macron.

"Journalist Frederic Leclerc-Imhoff was in Ukraine to show the reality of the war. On board a humanitarian bus, alongside civilians forced to flee to escape the Russian bombs, he was fatally shot," Macron tweeted Monday.

"I share the grief of the family, friends and colleagues of Frederic Leclerc-Imhoff, to whom I send my condolences. To those who carry out the difficult mission of providing information in theaters of operation, I want to reiterate France's unconditional support," Macron added.
France's Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said she had spoken with the governor of Luhansk and asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to investigate.

"This is a double crime, targeting a humanitarian convoy and a journalist," she said.

Leclerc-Imhoff, 32, worked for CNN affiliate BFM TV, which released a statement saying its staff was "deeply saddened" by his death, adding that he was killed on the road to Lyssychansk in the Severodonetsk region of Ukraine.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1531405866901155840?cxt=HHwWgMC9-bXh0sAqA...
https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1531491826858868736?cxt=HHwWgIC...

[CumbrianLefty]

Not sure if Davydiv Brid counts as a city though. It has 1200 residents.

Its been a consistent thing throughout the last few months for what are basically largeish villages to be referred to as "towns" or even "cities". It has maybe helped give some an exaggerated idea of the degree of movements on the ground - on both sides, but perhaps especially the Russian one.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1531572479835230209

[rc18]

Not sure if Davydiv Brid counts as a city though. It has 1200 residents.

Its been a consistent thing throughout the last few months for what are basically largeish villages to be referred to as "towns" or even "cities". It has maybe helped give some an exaggerated idea of the degree of movements on the ground - on both sides, but perhaps especially the Russian one.

In many countries there is little distinction between a town and a city. This is somewhat true in Ukraine; while there is an official city status, the word for city can also be used for what we call towns (historically they were called "little cities", but often the diminutive eventually gets dropped). So when somewhere like Davydiv Brid gets called a misto in a Ukrainian social media post it will likely get incorrectly translated as "city" instead of "town".