PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

[Citation needed] also please post in the PA-SEN megathread next time.

I still contend that she won’t jump in because she’s in a safe seat and on a good path to leadership in the House so to risk that for a crowded primary seems pretty foolish.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Arkoosh officially in:

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1379055314918649859?s=20

[Not Me, Us]

I honestly have no idea why she's running. But if she can help split the Eastern PA vote and allow Fetterman to win, then I'm all for it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Am I the only one who gets major Randy Bryce vibes from John Fetterman? 

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1379038753071759361?s=20

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1379100445788999684?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Am I the only one who gets major Randy Bryce vibes from John Fetterman? 

No, you are not !

[Roll Roons]

Am I the only one who gets major Randy Bryce vibes from John Fetterman? 

I certainly do. Being the darling of Twitter progressives, most of whom probably don't live in the state, does not necessarily translate to actual electoral appeal. Fetterman has never run for a major office on his own.

I think Democrats are more likely to hold the governorship than to win the Senate seat (which is still a pure tossup in my book). At least Shapiro has proven strength as a candidate.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Arkoosh seems like she’d be better building a base to run for a statewide office like auditor or treasurer  then senate

[wbrocks67]

Am I the only one who gets major Randy Bryce vibes from John Fetterman? 

I certainly do. Being the darling of Twitter progressives, most of whom probably don't live in the state, does not necessarily translate to actual electoral appeal. Fetterman has never run for a major office on his own.

I think Democrats are more likely to hold the governorship than to win the Senate seat (which is still a pure tossup in my book). At least Shapiro has proven strength as a candidate.

I can see why people would make the comparison to Bryce, but Bryce never won anything or was elected to anything. Fetterman at least is a known statewide figure who was elected to a spot and is a statewide elected official.

Meanwhile, I still don't necessarily buy that Dean will jump in. It could happen, but I feel like it's still unlikely.

But yeah, if she does, then Arkoosh is better off just running for PA-04.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Am I the only one who gets major Randy Bryce vibes from John Fetterman? 

I certainly do. Being the darling of Twitter progressives, most of whom probably don't live in the state, does not necessarily translate to actual electoral appeal. Fetterman has never run for a major office on his own.

I think Democrats are more likely to hold the governorship than to win the Senate seat (which is still a pure tossup in my book). At least Shapiro has proven strength as a candidate.

I can see why people would make the comparison to Bryce, but Bryce never won anything or was elected to anything. Fetterman at least is a known statewide figure who was elected to a spot and is a statewide elected official.

Meanwhile, I still don't necessarily buy that Dean will jump in. It could happen, but I feel like it's still unlikely.

But yeah, if she does, then Arkoosh is better off just running for PA-04.

Fetterman has never been elected in a GE in his own right to anything higher than Mayor of Braddock.  Fetterman has only really won one competitive primary and that was primarily due to a fluke in which the various candidates' geographic bases happened to work in his favor by sheer dumb luck.  Fetterman's handling of the gun incident reminds me of Bryce's child support issues in the sense that it's a glaringly obvious vulnerability that his campaign has handedly pretty badly and his supporters seem to be just sticking their heads in the sand about it. 

We can't afford to gamble with this race; the top priority is flipping the seat.  If this were, say, a 2018 environment then I'd be less worried about running Fetterman (although even then, you could argue that running Kenyatta would be a better play), but in 2022 we need someone reliable.  Ideally, you'd want someone with proven crossover appeal like Cartwright or even Lamb (my issues with him are strictly ideological).  And Houlahan would at least be a much safer play since she's basically a Generic Dem with a history of running solid campaigns (albeit in a pretty Democratic district, but even before the PA court-redistricting, the consensus in 2018 was that she had turned out to be a really good recruit IIRC). 

Kenyatta is also too big a gamble for my liking in 2022, but at least I can see what he might bring to the table if nominated.  Fetterman?  I went in with an open mind, but he increasingly strikes me as being Randy Bryce 2.0.  Honestly, I think Fetterman is probably more likely to under-perform than flip the seat if he faces a strong Republican opponent (even if it isn't Fitzpatrick, I highly doubt that Jeff Bartos is gonna be the only noteworthy Republican to jump in ).

[Pollster]

Fetterman raised almost $4 million.

[Sir Mohamed]

Fetterman raised almost $4 million.

That's huge. Fetterman for sure has a base in PA and there's energy behind his campaign. That's good news for Dems. But as recent races elsewhere showed, just a ton of money isn't enough to win. Race remains a pure tossup and Dems' best chance for a senate flip next year.

[Frenchrepublican]

Fetterman raised almost $4 million.

That's huge. Fetterman for sure has a base in PA and there's energy behind his campaign. That's good news for Dems. But as recent races elsewhere showed, just a ton of money isn't enough to win. Race remains a pure tossup and Dems' best chance for a senate flip next year.

I doubt that even 1/4 of that amount comes from the Keystone state.

[brucejoel99]

Fetterman raised almost $4 million.

At this rate, he's primed to utterly destroy next year.

[MT Treasurer]

I still think there’s a slight but by no means non-negligible chance of a scenario in which NC becomes the best pick-up opportunity for Democrats or at least votes slightly to the left of PA/WI. I generally agree that Democrats are unlikely to hold a 100-member Senate if they can’t flip even one of PA/WI/NC, though. The more this particular race morphs into Generic R vs. Generic D contest, the worse Democratic prospects become.

[Pollster]

Regarding the Fetterman/Bryce comparisons, if I'm being totally honest (and I have no reason not to be on this board), I think a big reason for the energy behind both men from progressives is the tacit understanding that identity politics is just as powerful/important to working class white men as it is to voters of color.

The issue with Bryce was that WI-01 isn't really a traditional "white working class" district. It is less white than the state as a whole, and is highly polarized along racial lines (the district's white population is significantly more educated and higher-income than its non-white population). Bryce's identity politics was not the right fit for the district's white population, and he had a smaller Democratic base to work with to make up for it. Not to mention, his campaign was discombobulated and undisciplined.

Fetterman's identity politics is definitely a better fit for the white population in Western PA, and even if it fails, the Dem base he has to work with is a much larger cushion for him than Bryce had. The quality of his campaign of course remains to be seen, as does the quality of his opponent.

[Frenchrepublican]

Fetterman raised almost $4 million.

At this rate, he's primed to utterly destroy next year.

And you can ask Senators Harrison/McGrath/Gideon how raising +100M$ is a winning strategy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think there’s a slight but by no means non-negligible chance of a scenario in which NC becomes the best pick-up opportunity for Democrats or at least votes slightly to the left of PA/WI. I generally agree that Democrats are unlikely to hold a 100-member Senate if they can’t flip even one of PA/WI/NC, though. The more this particular race morphs into Generic R vs. Generic D contest, the worse Democratic prospects become.

Lol no, Rs don't understand the gravity of the George Floyd case is going on, it reignites the racial tension, in a state like PA, WI and NH which will go D, racial profiling has been an issue.

I.knew Rs weren't gonna take head to what's going on with George Floyd protest. Rs are blocking everything, Fetterman, Nelson and Hassan will win and GA, NC and OH and possibly IA and FL are wave insurance

You forget that it's 500 days til Election, no GA is not most likely to stay D before the Rust belt its on the endangered species list

[brucejoel99]

Fetterman raised almost $4 million.

At this rate, he's primed to utterly destroy next year.

And you can ask Senators Harrison/McGrath/Gideon how raising +100M$ is a winning strategy.

Literally everybody you just named won - if not utterly destroyed in - their primaries.

[Frenchrepublican]

Regarding the Fetterman/Bryce comparisons, if I'm being totally honest (and I have no reason not to be on this board), I think a big reason for the energy behind both men from progressives is the tacit understanding that identity politics is just as powerful/important to working class white men as it is to voters of color.

The issue with Bryce was that WI-01 isn't really a traditional "white working class" district. It is less white than the state as a whole, and is highly polarized along racial lines (the district's white population is significantly more educated and higher-income than its non-white population). Bryce's identity politics was not the right fit for the district's white population, and he had a smaller Democratic base to work with to make up for it. Not to mention, his campaign was discombobulated and undisciplined.

Fetterman's identity politics is definitely a better fit for the white population in Western PA, and even if it fails, the Dem base he has to work with is a much larger cushion for him than Bryce had. The quality of his campaign of course remains to be seen, as does the quality of his opponent.

It's not really true, if WI-1 includes a large part of Waukesha and thus has a significant number of white college educated voters, you will also find places like Janesville and Kenosha, which are clearly white working class dominated cities, besides the suburbs of Kenosha and Racine are not exactly UMC whites either, these areas are generally fairly blue collar.

[Pollster]

Regarding the Fetterman/Bryce comparisons, if I'm being totally honest (and I have no reason not to be on this board), I think a big reason for the energy behind both men from progressives is the tacit understanding that identity politics is just as powerful/important to working class white men as it is to voters of color.

The issue with Bryce was that WI-01 isn't really a traditional "white working class" district. It is less white than the state as a whole, and is highly polarized along racial lines (the district's white population is significantly more educated and higher-income than its non-white population). Bryce's identity politics was not the right fit for the district's white population, and he had a smaller Democratic base to work with to make up for it. Not to mention, his campaign was discombobulated and undisciplined.

Fetterman's identity politics is definitely a better fit for the white population in Western PA, and even if it fails, the Dem base he has to work with is a much larger cushion for him than Bryce had. The quality of his campaign of course remains to be seen, as does the quality of his opponent.

It's not really true, if WI-1 includes a large part of Waukesha and thus has a significant number of white college educated voters, you will also find places like Janesville and Kenosha, which are clearly white working class dominated cities, besides the suburbs of Kenosha and Racine are not exactly UMC whites either, these areas are generally fairly blue collar.

Not really anymore. Kenosha has evolved into a bedroom community and the white population in the city is quickly becoming mostly Milwaukee/Chicago commuters, it is a microcosm of the educational/income polarization along racial lines that I mentioned. Low home prices and gentrification are going to continue this type of growth. Janesville/Rock County is still a pretty solid Dem constituency where the economy is mostly dominated by local healthcare and education (common in former manufacturing hubs) and is still heavily influence by the Catholic church, creating a lot of competing political interests. These aren't the types of white people that identified with Bryce's created persona, and weren't otherwise won over by his mismanaged campaign.

[KaiserDave]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

French Republican doesn't realize that these people received a 2K check from the IRS that is a stimulus if Trump and Mcconnell were back empowered, there would object like they along with Johnson did in Xmas time in favor of 20 percent cut in Corporate taxes
.
Trump said he wanted a steeper cut in Corporate taxes I'd he were reelected no stimulus, 18-20 percent

[KaiserDave]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.