OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Tekken_Guy]

Timken makes this Safe R since she is probably the least insane.

Some of the other candidates though.... surely Tim Ryan could have a snowball's chance against them. Likely R, although I suspect Ryan will do better than Biden unless the national mood really, really sours on the administration.

It’s safe R regardless of the nominee, though I think Timken will win by the largest margin.

[2016]

Timken makes this Safe R since she is probably the least insane.

Some of the other candidates though.... surely Tim Ryan could have a snowball's chance against them. Likely R, although I suspect Ryan will do better than Biden unless the national mood really, really sours on the administration.

The National Mood is already really, really souring. Bidens Job Approvals in States with competitive Senate & House Races is below 40 %. Heck, even in CA (LA Times Poll) or NY Times/Siena he is barely even.

The only question left to ask is can it get any worse lol

Who knows? Going to be interesting how the Ukraine/Russia thing is going to play with Voters. They might view Biden even weaker which doesn't bode well in Statewide & Congressional District Races.

I am interested given all the Endorsements by Timken how she is doing in the next Round of GOP Primary Polling.

Timken would definitly take this Race off the Board!

[Suburbia]

Likely R, we have to see what happens in August and September

[One Term Floridian]

Timken makes this Safe R since she is probably the least insane.

Some of the other candidates though.... surely Tim Ryan could have a snowball's chance against them. Likely R, although I suspect Ryan will do better than Biden unless the national mood really, really sours on the administration.

The National Mood is already really, really souring. Bidens Job Approvals in States with competitive Senate & House Races is below 40 %. Heck, even in CA (LA Times Poll) or NY Times/Siena he is barely even.

The only question left to ask is can it get any worse lol

Who knows? Going to be interesting how the Ukraine/Russia thing is going to play with Voters. They might view Biden even weaker which doesn't bode well in Statewide & Congressional District Races.

I am interested given all the Endorsements by Timken how she is doing in the next Round of GOP Primary Polling.

Timken would definitly take this Race off the Board!

I think Timken gets the nomination in the end. If not, yikes.

Voters aren't paying too much attention to foreign policy and Biden might get a slight uptick from Democratic-leaning voters who are paying attention, but when this eventually results in gas prices climbing even higher yeah GG Joe

[ProgressiveModerate]

One issue I have with Harper's campaign strategy is that she seems to believe that just running it up in the three C's with high black turnout is enough to win OH.

It's not. Biden lost by 8 and had pretty respectable performances at least in Columbus and Cinci. You'd have to be winning Columbus with Austin-like margins and turnout to maybe come remotely close.

If Dems want to have any shot at OH down the road, they have to close the gap in rural areas and at least partially bring back the Northeast coalition which requires a lot of WWC lower education white voters.

Regardless, this is not a race that should be competitive in 2022, but just my thoughts

[Rjjr77]

The best democrat in Ohio had to spend 30 Million in a democrat wave year to drastically underperform his polling. 30 MILLION. Tim Ryan doesnt have a prayer, against any of them

[2016]

One issue I have with Harper's campaign strategy is that she seems to believe that just running it up in the three C's with high black turnout is enough to win OH.

It's not. Biden lost by 8 and had pretty respectable performances at least in Columbus and Cinci. You'd have to be winning Columbus with Austin-like margins and turnout to maybe come remotely close.

If Dems want to have any shot at OH down the road, they have to close the gap in rural areas and at least partially bring back the Northeast coalition which requires a lot of WWC lower education white voters.

Regardless, this is not a race that should be competitive in 2022, but just my thoughts

Poll: 65 % of Rual Voters have Unfavorable View of Democratic Party
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/595358-65-percent-of-rural-voters-view-democratic-party-unfavorably-poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't bother to poll this race and there hasn't been any polls in NC, WI and PA EITHER

[Senator Incitatus]

Bold of Timken on run on being a woman in a party that is increasingly male/masculine. It could work in such a divided field.

[Grassroots]

Bold of Timken on run on being a woman in a party that is increasingly male/masculine. It could work in such a divided field.

Nobody is attracted to a campaign because of the gender of the candidate, especially in the GOP, in fact it probably turns people away. They want someone who focuses on the issues they are concerned about, and not one who boasts about how much of a girlboss she is.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Good thread on how bad Mandel is as a candidate, his history of corruption and flip-flopping/never-Trumpism:
https://twitter.com/monadansich/status/1496028700827172868

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tim Ryan absence is defining moment of his LONGSHOT CAMPAIGN, Harper isn't gonna win against Mandel and this is the second time Ryan didn't show up

I am gonna donate to Kunce and Mixon whom have better chances and that MO poll has Grietans only up 4

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Good thread on how bad Mandel is as a candidate, his history of corruption and flip-flopping/never-Trumpism:
https://twitter.com/monadansich/status/1496028700827172868

So many flip floppers in this race lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrat-tim-ryan-campaigns-butler-050100143.html

Ryan is still in the race to win not trying to be a sacrificial Lamb

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump has met with Vance and Mandel recently, while he's deciding on who to endorse. Timken and Gibbons notably didn't meet with Trump, and Dolan not meeting is obvious of course.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Vance gets the nomination he is the weakest opponent he said he doesn't care about Ukraine

[Aurelius]

Anyone but Mandel. I like every other candidate. Mandel is a craven self promoting grifter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

JD Vance is a bad candidate he can lose to Ryan which is our 53rd seat, he says Ukraine doesn't matter but do D's need OH, no, we need WI and PA but it's 2022 not 2004 we started winning OH after 2006

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump has met with Vance and Mandel recently, while he's deciding on who to endorse. Timken and Gibbons notably didn't meet with Trump, and Dolan not meeting is obvious of course.

Out of these two, the one who needs it most is Vance. Some people are skeptical of his anti-Trump history around 2016. A Trump endorsement would give him lots more trust immediately.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump has met with Vance and Mandel recently, while he's deciding on who to endorse. Timken and Gibbons notably didn't meet with Trump, and Dolan not meeting is obvious of course.

Out of these two, the one who needs it most is Vance. Some people are skeptical of his anti-Trump history around 2016. A Trump endorsement would give him lots more trust immediately.

Yeah. Voters probably like his ideas more, but his opponents are spending millions of dollars in ads trying to paint him as a never-Trumper (despite Gibbons and Timken ALSO being never-Trumpers back in 2016 and Mandel calling on Trump to drop out after Access Hollywood) and GOP voters will not vote for someone they believe as disloyal to Trump. A Trump endorsement will get rid of that concern.
Since Trump has said publicly before he WILL endorse in this race (and he would have to pretty soon to make an impact), I'm interested in seeing who will get it.

Something I've noticed is the very strange liberal media obsession with praising Jane Timken. All the news sites which usually endlessly criticize Trump have lately been making articles praising Jane Timken, calling her a "pro-Trump candidate" without any criticism, talking up her endorsements and praising how she's bringing "diversity" to the GOP by means of being a woman. She's still polling in 5th/6th, the same articles calling Vance a failure for polling in the early teens are playing up Timken who is polling at 6%. It reminds me of how establishment liberal outlets were all over Buttigieg and Klobuchar in 2019 when they were polling at 4%. Something's up with that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there a chance the Dem could win Mahoning, Lorain, or even Trumball, even if they lose by double-digits statewide? Dems still seem to have a bit of downballot strength there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Is there a chance the Dem could win Mahoning, Lorain, or even Trumball, even if they lose by double-digits statewide? Dems still seem to have a bit of downballot strength there.

Yes they will the only poll had Ryan 38 tied with Vance who said Ukraine didn't matter and down 4 to Mandel users think that both Vance and Mandel are gonna win by 20 like Portman did, lol no they won't and Biden is nearing 50/47 that's a 303(/235 map with wave insurance, users don't know what wave insurance means it means if Biden is at 50% on EDay with Turnout our wave insurance candidates win it doesn't mean wave candidates are necessarily goonna be ahead before EDay but it's a 303 map with Biden at 50/47

Once in awhile I get these reports on my post because users think that I am trolling when I say blue wave lol, Biden is at 50(47 not 37 percent anymore and at 50% with Turnout it can be a blue wave we must win a blue wave a 3030 map doesn't hold the House and Crist is leading against DeSantis that's wave insurance


OH is wave insurance it's our 53rd seat after Wzi, and PA any blue wave can tip OH to our side

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/former-president-donald-trumps-having-a-blast-watching-ohio-senate-candidates-try-to-kiss-his-ass?source=articles&via=rss

More updates on Trump's thoughts on the candidates (still unsure about whether to endorse yet).

Apparently the meeting with Mandel in February was unplanned. Dave McIntosh brought Mandel with him to a Trump meeting without Trump knowing and it annoyed him. So clearly Trump doesn't like Mandel at all, I thought the fact that Trump met with him meant he didn't hate him, but I now think its certain Trump hates his guts.

Trump likes watching Vance on FOX and thinks he looks attractive.

Trump thinks Gibbons is boring and barely knows who he is.

So far Trump probably won't endorse anyone soon. If he does it'll probably be close to the primary, especially if there's a clear Trumpy frontrunner.

[Grassroots]

Apparently Trump plans to endorse in the OH-SEN primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Apparently Trump plans to endorse in the OH-SEN primary.

If he does it'll either be Vance or Gibbons, honestly leaning more towards the former at this point. He clearly doesn't like any of the other candidates.