OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Grassroots]

I actually think Mandel is seriously misreading the Republican electorate if he thinks this is the stuff he needs to go all in with excessive, performative, and hilariously unnatural-sounding/insincere pandering. It’s like he just read a transcript of Pat Buchanan's 1992 RNC speech and thought "yes, Pat Buchanan talked about culture wars, and culture wars are what propelled Trump to the presidency, so this is what my party's base wants to hear in the year 2022."

He’s just not very good at this, and I’m even less confident about him winning the R primary now. I mean, "Judeo-Christian values"? Seriously?

Vance is the most similar to Pat Buchanan ideologically, he even shouted out his book at one of the candidate forums.

Mandel's rhetoric seems too dumb to be taken from a Buchanan speech or anything like it. The more apparent inspiration seems to be Trump's tweets.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I actually think Mandel is seriously misreading the Republican electorate if he thinks this is the stuff he needs to go all in with excessive, performative, and hilariously unnatural-sounding/insincere pandering. It’s like he just read a transcript of Pat Buchanan's 1992 RNC speech and thought "yes, Pat Buchanan talked about culture wars, and culture wars are what propelled Trump to the presidency, so this is what my party's base wants to hear in the year 2022."

He’s just not very good at this, and I’m even less confident about him winning the R primary now. I mean, "Judeo-Christian values"? Seriously?

Vance is the most similar to Pat Buchanan ideologically, he even shouted out his book at one of the candidate forums.

Mandel's rhetoric seems too dumb to be taken from a Buchanan speech or anything like it. The more apparent inspiration seems to be Trump's tweets.

Pat was way to the right of Vance on economic issues. Buchanan accused HW of being too left wing on economics

[Grassroots]

I actually think Mandel is seriously misreading the Republican electorate if he thinks this is the stuff he needs to go all in with excessive, performative, and hilariously unnatural-sounding/insincere pandering. It’s like he just read a transcript of Pat Buchanan's 1992 RNC speech and thought "yes, Pat Buchanan talked about culture wars, and culture wars are what propelled Trump to the presidency, so this is what my party's base wants to hear in the year 2022."

He’s just not very good at this, and I’m even less confident about him winning the R primary now. I mean, "Judeo-Christian values"? Seriously?

Vance is the most similar to Pat Buchanan ideologically, he even shouted out his book at one of the candidate forums.

Mandel's rhetoric seems too dumb to be taken from a Buchanan speech or anything like it. The more apparent inspiration seems to be Trump's tweets.

Pat was way to the right of Vance on economic issues. Buchanan accused HW of being too left wing on economics

On what issues do they divert? They are both protectionist on trade, acknowledging the left wing social influence of corporations and universities, and supporting of blue collar jobs/manufacturing. Vance himself isn't that left of the median on economic issues.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I actually think Mandel is seriously misreading the Republican electorate if he thinks this is the stuff he needs to go all in with excessive, performative, and hilariously unnatural-sounding/insincere pandering. It’s like he just read a transcript of Pat Buchanan's 1992 RNC speech and thought "yes, Pat Buchanan talked about culture wars, and culture wars are what propelled Trump to the presidency, so this is what my party's base wants to hear in the year 2022."

He’s just not very good at this, and I’m even less confident about him winning the R primary now. I mean, "Judeo-Christian values"? Seriously?

Vance is the most similar to Pat Buchanan ideologically, he even shouted out his book at one of the candidate forums.

Mandel's rhetoric seems too dumb to be taken from a Buchanan speech or anything like it. The more apparent inspiration seems to be Trump's tweets.

Pat was way to the right of Vance on economic issues. Buchanan accused HW of being too left wing on economics

Yeah, if he gets elected, Vance would probably be the most economically left GOP senator since Chafee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Safe R now along with NC and FL, Ryan may run for Prez though in the Future that's his future now, he wanted to be Prez I don't see him taking a Cabinet post but who knows

I would support him Harris isn't the future Prez anymore it's Buttigieg or Eric Adams or who knows Ryan

[OSR stands with Israel]

I actually think Mandel is seriously misreading the Republican electorate if he thinks this is the stuff he needs to go all in with excessive, performative, and hilariously unnatural-sounding/insincere pandering. It’s like he just read a transcript of Pat Buchanan's 1992 RNC speech and thought "yes, Pat Buchanan talked about culture wars, and culture wars are what propelled Trump to the presidency, so this is what my party's base wants to hear in the year 2022."

He’s just not very good at this, and I’m even less confident about him winning the R primary now. I mean, "Judeo-Christian values"? Seriously?

Vance is the most similar to Pat Buchanan ideologically, he even shouted out his book at one of the candidate forums.

Mandel's rhetoric seems too dumb to be taken from a Buchanan speech or anything like it. The more apparent inspiration seems to be Trump's tweets.

Pat was way to the right of Vance on economic issues. Buchanan accused HW of being too left wing on economics

On what issues do they divert? They are both protectionist on trade, acknowledging the left wing social influence of corporations and universities, and supporting of blue collar jobs/manufacturing. Vance himself isn't that left of the median on economic issues.

Pat Buchanan slammed HW over and over on his tax policy, and was for massively cutting welfare spending


http://www.4president.org/brochures/1992/patbuchanan1992brochure.htm

4. Cut Tax Rates. We will fight for cuts in federal tax rates on investment, saving and income alike, to make America the most attractive economic climate in the industrial world, and to create millions of new jobs, right here in the United States.

 

5. Veto Tax Hikes. We will keep the promises George Bush broke. Any congressional tax increase (or pay hike) will be vetoed and stopped dead in its tracks.

 

6. Freeze Federal Spending Under George Bush, social spending has soared faster than at any time in 60 years, and America has run the largest deficits in her history. Instead of down-sizing General Motors, we should down-size the federal bureaucracy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I strike my previous statement I think JD Vance and Mandel are the weakest and hope we win PA, WI and OH Senate races and NC

[Real Texan Politics]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Honestly I think he'll endorse Mike Gibbons. I don't think he likes Mandel (probably sees him as a fraud with the pictures of him and Bill Kristol and John Kasich), and he probably likes Vance but is concerned about his loyalty and maybe thinks some of his economic views could scare off the base due to socialism fears.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Honestly I think he'll endorse Mike Gibbons. I don't think he likes Mandel (probably sees him as a fraud with the pictures of him and Bill Kristol and John Kasich), and he probably likes Vance but is concerned about his loyalty and maybe thinks some of his economic views could scare off the base due to socialism fears.

Maybe Gibbons too, I think it'll be Timken though due to many of his close circle supporting her.
I think he's iffy on Vance because of the loyalty stuff. Vance isn't any more left than Masters or Kent and Trump endorsed (or will endorse) them.

[Grassroots]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Honestly I think he'll endorse Mike Gibbons. I don't think he likes Mandel (probably sees him as a fraud with the pictures of him and Bill Kristol and John Kasich), and he probably likes Vance but is concerned about his loyalty and maybe thinks some of his economic views could scare off the base due to socialism fears.

Trump's thought process is not nearly this complex. His staffers' influence directs most of his endorsements (Trump essentially just rubber-stamps them), and his staffers tend to be in the Timken/Mandel camps.

[BuckeyeNut]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Not happening.

Mandel only loses the primary if at least one of the more serious candidates drops out, and even then, that might not be enough. Regardless, that seems highly unlikely at this point.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Not happening.

Mandel only loses the primary if at least one of the more serious candidates drops out, and even then, that might not be enough. Regardless, that seems highly unlikely at this point.

Mandel is not leading by that much in polling and most of the other candidates are catching up. I have no idea why you think he has a lock on the nomination.

[Senator Incitatus]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Not happening.

Mandel only loses the primary if at least one of the more serious candidates drops out, and even then, that might not be enough. Regardless, that seems highly unlikely at this point.

All of the candidates are more serious than Mandel so I expect at least one of them will drop out.

I don't see why anyone thinks the candidate with by far the highest name recognition in the field who is nonetheless consistently polling at <25% (and is likely to trail four other candidates in spending) is anything close to the favorite. I'd put him third, maybe fourth. Only has a real shot if Trump does the unexpected and endorses him or the more serious candidates implode.

Never seen a weaker candidate referred to as a front-runner, let alone a lock.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R again, since Voting Rights isn't gonna be pass along with NC and FL

[BuckeyeNut]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Not happening.

Mandel only loses the primary if at least one of the more serious candidates drops out, and even then, that might not be enough. Regardless, that seems highly unlikely at this point.

All of the candidates are more serious than Mandel so I expect at least one of them will drop out.

I don't see why anyone thinks the candidate with by far the highest name recognition in the field who is nonetheless consistently polling at <25% (and is likely to trail four other candidates in spending) is anything close to the favorite. I'd put him third, maybe fourth. Only has a real shot if Trump does the unexpected and endorses him or the more serious candidates implode.

Never seen a weaker candidate referred to as a front-runner, let alone a lock.

They might be more serious in so far that they aren't quite as deranged on Twitter, but they're not as serious in terms of appeal to the base. They are also all far too into themselves to drop out for the betterment of the state. Maybe Dolan drops out, but his doing so won't substantively benefit anyone enough to make a difference given his low polling numbers.

Mandel is only sub-25% in polls paid for by his primary opponents. If you average the last few polls together, you get a clearer picture:

Mandel - 29%
Vance - 13%
Timken - 11%
Gibbons - 9%
Dolan - 4%
Moreno - 2%
Undecided - 32%

Aggregates are generally more accurate than any single poll, and the aggregate puts Mandel within the margin of error of leading the total number of undecided voters. That pretty much seals the deal in a field this divided.

[Senator Incitatus]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Not happening.

Mandel only loses the primary if at least one of the more serious candidates drops out, and even then, that might not be enough. Regardless, that seems highly unlikely at this point.

All of the candidates are more serious than Mandel so I expect at least one of them will drop out.

I don't see why anyone thinks the candidate with by far the highest name recognition in the field who is nonetheless consistently polling at <25% (and is likely to trail four other candidates in spending) is anything close to the favorite. I'd put him third, maybe fourth. Only has a real shot if Trump does the unexpected and endorses him or the more serious candidates implode.

Never seen a weaker candidate referred to as a front-runner, let alone a lock.

They might be more serious in so far that they aren't quite as deranged on Twitter, but they're not as serious in terms of appeal to the base. They are also all far too into themselves to drop out for the betterment of the state. Maybe Dolan drops out, but his doing so won't substantively benefit anyone enough to make a difference given his low polling numbers.

Mandel is only sub-25% in polls paid for by his primary opponents. If you average the last few polls together, you get a clearer picture:

Mandel - 29%
Vance - 13%
Timken - 11%
Gibbons - 9%
Dolan - 4%
Moreno - 2%
Undecided - 32%

Aggregates are generally more accurate than any single poll, and the aggregate puts Mandel within the margin of error of leading the total number of undecided voters. That pretty much seals the deal in a field this divided.

Can’t remember the last time I saw such blatant manipulation in the name of “averaging,” so I have to assume your post  was a complete  accident:

1. The most recent poll was an independent by Trafalgar that has Mandel at 21%, consistent with the others. In fact, that’s the only independent poll and it’s from a top tier pollster.
2. The Fabrizio & Lee poll is not paid for by a candidate, only by an organization that separately backed Vance, so that’s obviously a significant misstatement.
3. When someone polls consistently across all of his opponents’ polling, we can take that seriously, unless you’re suggesting a conspiracy.
4. To rig the average, you had to go back four months to include two outlier polls. Aggregating polls is great, so long as they’re recent.
5. You completely ignored that those polls were Mandel internals, making them unreliable by your own standard. If anything, they’re less reliable for the proposition offered, since a candidate’s own numbers are the ones most likely to be filtered by the internal release selection bias.
6. Where the hell did “a candidate leading the undecideds with 30% makes him a lock” come from? That’s absurd. A candidate with sky-high ID polling at 30% against a field of relative unknowns is not close to a lock.

Complete misreading of this race.

[BuckeyeNut]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Not happening.

Mandel only loses the primary if at least one of the more serious candidates drops out, and even then, that might not be enough. Regardless, that seems highly unlikely at this point.

All of the candidates are more serious than Mandel so I expect at least one of them will drop out.

I don't see why anyone thinks the candidate with by far the highest name recognition in the field who is nonetheless consistently polling at <25% (and is likely to trail four other candidates in spending) is anything close to the favorite. I'd put him third, maybe fourth. Only has a real shot if Trump does the unexpected and endorses him or the more serious candidates implode.

Never seen a weaker candidate referred to as a front-runner, let alone a lock.

They might be more serious in so far that they aren't quite as deranged on Twitter, but they're not as serious in terms of appeal to the base. They are also all far too into themselves to drop out for the betterment of the state. Maybe Dolan drops out, but his doing so won't substantively benefit anyone enough to make a difference given his low polling numbers.

Mandel is only sub-25% in polls paid for by his primary opponents. If you average the last few polls together, you get a clearer picture:

Mandel - 29%
Vance - 13%
Timken - 11%
Gibbons - 9%
Dolan - 4%
Moreno - 2%
Undecided - 32%

Aggregates are generally more accurate than any single poll, and the aggregate puts Mandel within the margin of error of leading the total number of undecided voters. That pretty much seals the deal in a field this divided.

Can’t remember the last time I saw such blatant manipulation in the name of “averaging,” so I have to assume your post  was a complete  accident:

1. The most recent poll was an independent by Trafalgar that has Mandel at 21%, consistent with the others. In fact, that’s the only independent poll and it’s from a top tier pollster.
2. The Fabrizio & Lee poll is not paid for by a candidate, only by an organization that separately backed Vance, so that’s obviously a significant misstatement.
3. When someone polls consistently across all of his opponents’ polling, we can take that seriously, unless you’re suggesting a conspiracy.
4. To rig the average, you had to go back four months to include two outlier polls. Aggregating polls is great, so long as they’re recent.
5. You completely ignored that those polls were Mandel internals, making them unreliable by your own standard. If anything, they’re less reliable for the proposition offered, since a candidate’s own numbers are the ones most likely to be filtered by the internal release selection bias.
6. Where the hell did “a candidate leading the undecideds with 30% makes him a lock” come from? That’s absurd. A candidate with sky-high ID polling at 30% against a field of relative unknowns is not close to a lock.

Complete misreading of this race.

1: I missed that Trafalgar was independent, so mea culpa on that one.
2: It is no misstatement. Per your admission, Fabrizio Lee is not independent. It is absurd to allege a poll paid for by a SuperPAC supporting a candidate is not an internal poll for their endorsed candidate. It's also junk since it included Mike Turner as a candidate, and he very clearly is not getting in.
3: Every opponent is interested in inflating their numbers and deflating their primary opponent's numbers. In this case, that's Mandel. There is not a conspiracy, just politics.
4: There have not been many recent polls, and Mandel's opponents have paid for the majority of recent polls. Mea culpa with Trafalgar, but a longer view is required.
5: I did no such thing. I included Mandel's older internal polls to provide additional data points, balance, and clarity because recent polls have been sparse, and all but one of them was paid for by one of Mandel's opponents
6: When you have five serious candidates, you only need 20% to win. That happens in plenty of seriously contested primaries with large fields. Even taking a shorter view of the most recent polls, the only one showing Mandel's lead within the margin of error comes from Vance's internal. That poll is utter junk with the inclusion of Turner.

If you average the recent polls that include only the serious candidates who have declared, you wind up with the following:

Mandel - 21%
Timken - 14%
Gibbons - 13%
Vance - 13%
Dolan - 5%
Moreno - 3%
Undecided - 31%

That's not as good for Mandel as the prior aggregate, but unless 1: Gibbons, Timken, or Vance drops out, or 2: Trump endorses one of those three, Mandel will not lose. Gibbons, Timken, and Vance are far too self-absorbed to drop out, and even if one of them did, it is doubtful their supporters would uniformly coalesce around one of the other more serious candidates in opposition to Mandel. Hell, they would all lose some of their voters to him.

It hasn't been discussed in this thread, AFAIK, but one of the strange dynamics of this race is how many of the GOP candidates are from NEOH. Vance really should be doing better as the lone serious candidate from outside the Cleveland-Akron-Canton area.

I know Ohio, and our branch of the GOP, much better than you do.

[Senator Incitatus]

Another poll out today—yes, an internal—with Mandel at 18%.

Guessing 25% will be about his ceiling from here on out.

[BuckeyeNut]

Another new poll today, with Mandel at 26%. Yesterday's poll was a Timken internal, while today was Mandel through Club For Growth. The average of the most recent polls, now that it is possible to take a narrow view that isn't biased in favor of any candidate, suggests the following field:

Mandel 22%
Timken 14%
Gibbons 13%
Vance 11%
Moreno 6%
Dolan 4%

A noticeable trend in the two most recent polls is the jump in support for Moreno, who appears to be rising rapidly to Vance's detriment. Unlike Mandel, whose stock has slowly decreased over the past year but never decreased below 20% on average, Vance can't afford any negative trendline. Gibbons and Timken are also gaining modest support, probably from a similar pool of voters.

[Grassroots]

Something to consider is that Vance has spent very little of his $10,000,000+ warchest, and he's still in second place according to the only independent poll conducted.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Something to consider is that Vance has spent very little of his $10,000,000+ warchest, and he's still in second place according to the only independent poll conducted.

Yeah, there's still a long way to go until the primary and it's a common mistake to spend all the money too early

[Grassroots]

Vance raises 1 mil+ in Q4, 90% of which from small dollar donors.
https://twitter.com/JDVancePress/status/1481379338444587008?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

JD Vance is losing to Mandel in the primary

[Oppo]

https://mobile.twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1482343767084523526?s=21

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think Mandel is definitely very vunerable due to his crankiness, like his werid bitcoin obsession does seem very onthrongal to what the republican base in Ohio wants and there are definitely several other things that can be used to paint him as a crank.

 Also might Tim Ryan drop down back to a congressional race given Ohio will be gaining safe democratic districts even if he might have to carpet bag a bit.