OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Tekken_Guy]

Not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, this seat moves from unwinnable to winnable in a perfect storm, but on the other hand, most Republicans are a downgrade from Portman.

When has Portman ever voted with Dems on anything of significance?

That's kinda missing the point.  DiFi never breaks with Schumer on floor votes, for example, but her seniority and stature moderates the entire Democratic caucus towards her position.  Portman was in a similar position.  Replacing him with Renacci, Gonzalez or (God forbid) Jim Jordan is definitely a downgrade for Democrats and moderate centrists of either party.   

How is a guy who impeached Trump,in the same league as Renacci or Jordan?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is it safe to write off Gonzalez?

[Tekken_Guy]

LOTS of candidates looking at this race.

The most likely Republican candidates seem to be:

* Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor and former Secretary of State
* Jim Jordan, Congressman and founding Freedom Caucus member
* Josh Mandel, former Treasurer of State and Senate candidate (2012)

Other potential candidates:

* Bill Johnson, Congressman
* Frank LaRose, Secretary of State and former State Senator
* Jim Renacci, former Congressman and Senate candidate (2018)
* Steve Stivers, Congressman and former NRCC Chair
* Mary Taylor, former Lieutenant Governor and Auditor of State
* Jane Timken, Chair of the Ohio Republican Party
* J.D. Vance, venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy
* Brad Wenstrup, Congressman
* Dave Yost, Attorney General and former Auditor of State

What about the impeacher?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is it safe to write off Gonzalez?

Yes. Someone who voted for impeachment can't win.

Why not? GOP primary voters care about a lot more than that.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1353813723325079553

I hope he becomes a Senator one day.

[Tekken_Guy]

Surprising, since he's for sure safe in the GE. Possible this increases the chance for him to vote for Trump conviction.

Let's just hope Jim Jordan won't replace him.

I had the exact same thoughts when I heard this news. Anybody but Jordan, please! I doubt Democrats will be competitive, even if it's maybe 1% more winnable at best, so any Republican who wants it is going to get the seat.

Jordan is in line to chair the judiciary. Would he give it up for a senate run?

[Tekken_Guy]

Ryan is probably, and I emphasize that word, the best potential candidate Democrats have. Since his seat will probably get carved up in redistricting and only makes sense for him to run.

If Jim renacci sticks with his plan to primary do line, the Republican primary probably becomes a Mandel- Jordan race even if they are not the only declared candidates.

If Jordan wins, that's probably the only scenario where the race becomes somewhat competitive. But even then running against Ryan it's still probably somewhere between lean-to likely R given Ohio's painfully  rapid republican Trend and the fact it'll be a Biden midterm election.

I wish these things weren't true. It was bad enough having Jordan as my Congressman for several years , so the thought of him as my senator makes my skin crawl. Nevertheless, that doesn't make this glum prognosis any less real.

Wouldn’t Jim Jordan stay in the house to get his shot at the Judiciary chair?

[Tekken_Guy]

Mandel is probably gonna run. Ugh. What a despicable individual.

What’s the issue with Mandel?

[Tekken_Guy]

Gomez also says she's being encouraged by the local Dem establishment, so bad news for Tim Ryan. Meanwhile on the GOP side...

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1354910436337061892

anyone have insights on timken?

OH GOP chair, Harvard and American University Law, well connected and well liked by all factions of the party. I think she's the front runner for the seat.

I don't see what's so special about her. She's just a state chair. From what I understand these are rarely launching pads for Senate races.

[Tekken_Guy]

I still don’t understand why a state chair is a good candidate for a U.S. Senate seat? What about the several congresspeople and row officers with elected experience and a more front-and-center role in politics?

[Tekken_Guy]

I still don’t understand why a state chair is a good candidate for a U.S. Senate seat? What about the several congresspeople and row officers with elected experience and a more front-and-center role in politics?

She’s basically Generic Trumpist, nothing special

So is Mandel.

[Tekken_Guy]

Jimmy Dore could fail to get 40% of the vote if he runs.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/1405980032816713728

Yikes....

As someone who really does not like Ilhan Omar, I don’t support this tweet.

[Tekken_Guy]

Graham Allen dropping out of his South Carolina House race the other day meant that Trump had decided on Russell Fry to receive his endorsement, so this probably means that Trump has picked someone in the field. Hopefully not Vance; Timken or Mandel would be fine. Hard to imagine that it would be Gibbons or Dolan.

I like Vance the best but I have a feeling it'll be Timken.

Why do you think that?

[Tekken_Guy]

If Trump doesn't endorse for a while, who do you think Moreno dropping out will benefit the most?

Timken I’d say. She fits the ideological lane of mainstream conservatism with a Trumpist streak. Kind of where the likes of Ron Johnson or Rick Scott are on the spectrum.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ohio Democrats need to look themselves in the mirror to why they are about to lose to incendiary people like Josh Mandel and JD Vance in 2022 and possibly Jim Jordan in 2024.

If Democrats would focus on economics, ECONOMICS, maybe dump BBB and continued to press for a  minimum wage hike even if Sinema voted it down, they would have been in a better position.

This. So much this.

It’s very unlikely Jordan is going to run for Senate in 2024. He’s a very powerful house member and isn’t going to give up all that power to become a Junior U.S. Senator. If he wanted to be a senator he would have gone for it this year.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ohio Democrats need to look themselves in the mirror to why they are about to lose to incendiary people like Josh Mandel and JD Vance in 2022 and possibly Jim Jordan in 2024.

If Democrats would focus on economics, ECONOMICS, maybe dump BBB and continued to press for a  minimum wage hike even if Sinema voted it down, they would have been in a better position.

I agree with a lot of this, but I can’t see Jordan running for Senate if 2024 if he passed over a run for this year.

[Tekken_Guy]

Timken makes this Safe R since she is probably the least insane.

Some of the other candidates though.... surely Tim Ryan could have a snowball's chance against them. Likely R, although I suspect Ryan will do better than Biden unless the national mood really, really sours on the administration.

It’s safe R regardless of the nominee, though I think Timken will win by the largest margin.