Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

Speaking as someone who follows Ukrainian military aid religiously and even posted the last 2 weeks' worth of US aid packages just a few days ago, the amount of aid recently (within past 30 days) has actually increased. Ukraine is seeing arguably the biggest shipment of light armored vehicles and munitions in a single 2 week span than they have since the first couple months of the war. Literally 400+ armored vehicles (MRAPs/etc) and nearly a hundred thousand artillery shells, a large amount of missiles and rockets, and dozens of new artillery systems. If you include European donations of vehicles, including the BMPs Germany traded for, we're talking about 600+ armored vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles.

Maybe the US starts hitting their limit (whether via policy preference or hard materiel limits) in the future, but there is no tangible sign of that yet. I'd also note that the US currently has over 10,000 MaxxPro MRAPs in storage, and an even larger number of Humvees, and thousands of M113 armored personnel carriers in storage. These are the primary armored vehicles they have been sending Ukraine. So their ability to supply at least these could persist for a long time.

[jaichind]

Looks like Germany will extend the lifetime of all 3 nuclear power plants.   I have the same question as I asked a month ago when this was being considered:  Did the German Green Party sign off on this?  I will be eager to read their explanation for backing this decision.

[Omega21]

Possibly first video of Iranian Mohajer-6 in action.

Unlike the S-136 kamikaze drones, this one is more akin to the UA deployed Bayraktars.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581948535506817025

Furthermore, Russia has ramped up use of their own kamikaze drones (Lancet 3), here seen recently taking out empty S300 tubes

(Some thought it was a decoy, but unlikely seeing as a real radar is in the same complex)

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1582036244959150080

One of the luckiest circumstances for Ukraine is and was the fact that RU combat drone capabilities are very sub-par.

RU obviously has the capability to develop such tech but heavily neglected it in the previous decades.

Obviously, they are trying to "fix" their mistakes by seemingly ramping up domestic drone production/use & buying from Iran, but that will never be as effective as if they had deployed swarms in the first weeks of the conflict.

[Virginiá]

One area where we might see the effects of attrition on stockpiles is artillery shells, and there have been statements by officials that US stockpiles are getting low for standard 155mm shells, mostly because the US needs to keep a certain amount for preparedness and because the US doesn't plan for artillery wars as it is not their doctrine, so their stocks are not as deep.

HOWEVER, the US has also invested in quickly expanding production lines and has placed significant orders for hundreds of thousands of shells to be produced. They are also sourcing from foreign countries, and NATO in general is sourcing Soviet-caliber shells from all over the world.

Further, there are some hints that the 2.9 billion dollar arms deal allegedly made with South Korea for an indirect transfer to Ukraine includes significant 155mm artillery shells, which would make sense because South Korea has deep production capacity and stockpiles of artillery due to their frozen conflict with North Korea.

[Woody]

Russia with another wave today of Shahed drones. Attacks happening right now in Kyiv & Kyiv Region

https://twitter.com/newsistaan/status/1582050206807658501
https://twitter.com/Worldsource24/status/1582048762083495936

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Magnifyingglas_/status/1582025421339906048

[Storr]

Meanwhile in Belarus:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1581916278025261056?s=20&t=j-Io-r...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/tweet4anna/status/1582048408516165634
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1582061460091387904
https://twitter.com/TeodoroSampai12/status/1582062575289630721

[Woody]

Attack in Brovary. One of the Shaheds was shot down:

https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1582063455242424320

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1582044184088674307?s=20&t=j-Io-rW...

[Woody]

According to Ukrainian Intel, Russia has ordered 2000-2400 UAVs from Iran. Supposed production site of the Shaheds:

Source: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-ordered-2-400-shahed-136-kamikaze-uavs-from-iran/
https://twitter.com/copemuch/status/1582063146134822913

[Stranger in a strange land]

So a big problem with the Shahed is, ironically, its slow speed (115 MPH max speed), which is below the stall speed of almost all fixed wing aircraft, plus its low cost making MANPADS ineffecient to use against it. But there is a solution, if we dare to use it.

[Omega21]

So a big problem with the Shahed is, ironically, its slow speed (115 MPH max speed), which is below the stall speed of almost all fixed wing aircraft, plus its low cost making MANPADS ineffecient to use against it. But there is a solution, if we dare to use it.

MANPADS like the Strela are constantly being shot at it on video. Saw it happen 2x today.

It's just that, well, they miss for some reason.

Possibly due to the low thermal signature + slow speed?

[President Johnson]

I'm glad she managed to get safely out of Russia with her children and is reportedly somewhere within in the EU. More details to be announced at a later point in time. EU countries should grant asylum to all Russian dissidents.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1582019853627449344

[ꙮ]

The dude has a capital Z in his username why are you bothering to engage in him like he isn’t anything other than a pro Russian troll?

Boredom mostly

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So a big problem with the Shahed is, ironically, its slow speed (115 MPH max speed), which is below the stall speed of almost all fixed wing aircraft, plus its low cost making MANPADS ineffecient to use against it. But there is a solution, if we dare to use it.

and I can think of the perfect ace for the job



In other news, an SU-34 crashed into an apartment lock in Yeysk, Krasnodar loaded with ammunition, though the pilot ejected. Whoever caught this picture deserves an award

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1582034844631982082

[Omega21]

Announcement by UKRENERGO (UA Electric company)

As a result of today's attack (one of their facilities was hit in Kiev today), light will be turned off in cities and regions across Ukraine.

A large list of cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava etc. follows, along with blackout schedules.

Cannot post link, since it is from UA Telegram voynareal.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

So a big problem with the Shahed is, ironically, its slow speed (115 MPH max speed), which is below the stall speed of almost all fixed wing aircraft, plus its low cost making MANPADS ineffecient to use against it. But there is a solution, if we dare to use it.

Ah, a fellow noncredibledefense enjoyer I see?

[Logical]

So a big problem with the Shahed is, ironically, its slow speed (115 MPH max speed), which is below the stall speed of almost all fixed wing aircraft, plus its low cost making MANPADS ineffecient to use against it. But there is a solution, if we dare to use it.

It's basically a flying moped, a poor man's cruise missile. That what makes it effective though, as the tools required to destroy them are almost all more expensive the drones themselves.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1581888486998626305
 Boy does this describe a certain poster here

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1581198080191664128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...
The comments are brutal. More money taken away from American taxpayers for a hopeless foreign war they have no investment in.

Okay traitor.

This isn’t helpful in any way. It almost reminds me of how people were post-9/11 if you questioned Bush’s actions at all. For months we have been sending money to Ukraine and I haven’t seen any results whatsoever. There is still a war and I see no signs Ukraine is even close to winning. Do we just keep sending them a blank check indefinitely? And would Ukraine support us if we truly needed them? Where is the cutoff here and why?

To be clear I am not defending Russia’s actions in any way, that would be ridiculous. But we need to move toward peace in some way; this isn’t sustainable in the long term and could drag out for years.

even if it drags out for years, that means the russkies are fighting over there and not at America's shores.

that's y its important to help the forces of global democracy over there fight Axis of Evil regimes before they get out of control and can do even more damage and threaten the entire world rather than just their region.

If the west had toppled Hitler in 1933 many millions would have survived who instead died due to appeasement that allowed the forces of evil time to gain strength.

I understand the logic here but Putin is hardly Adolf Hitler. Russia is a weak second-world country whose military has proven to be ill-equipped and unprepared for combat. it is hardly the type of army that Germany had in the 40s, and I doubt he could even defeat Poland at this point.

NATO is the red line. If he goes after any NATO country then I fully support military involvement, though Poland by itself would likely be able to take them for that matter. I feel for Ukraine, I truly do, but I don’t think Putin poses much of a threat for anyone else other than them.

Imagine thinking that, a, Putin isn't utterly morally reprehensible and bloody as Hitler simply because he hasn't literally reopened book involved, b, that fundamental American strategic interests are not at play here despite Ukraine not - at least yet - being a NATO member, or c, that despite its corruption and difficulties it is fundamentally on the side of liberal democracy under attack from a bunch of mass raping, child torturing, ethnic kidnapping/cleansing purveyors of mass War atrocities.

My remark about Hitler wasn’t because I was comparing their mortality. Putin is certainly a bloodthirsty dictator in the same ideological realm as Hitler. Instead I was comparing their militaries. Russia’s can’t even seem to conquer Ukraine while Germany’s in the 1930s-1940s nearly took over all of Europe.

Well, of course that is because of heavy financial, diplomatic, military material, and intelligence support of the Ukrainian War effort. Much as American Munitions and Supply kept England holding out against the march of germany.

[Stranger in a strange land]

So a big problem with the Shahed is, ironically, its slow speed (115 MPH max speed), which is below the stall speed of almost all fixed wing aircraft, plus its low cost making MANPADS ineffecient to use against it. But there is a solution, if we dare to use it.

Ah, a fellow noncredibledefense enjoyer I see?

3000 Black Sopwith Camels of Zelensky incoming! And I'm only half joking. A better solution is for Bakyar or another low-cost drone maker to produce a drone fighter that can loiter and mimics the combat characteristics of WWI & inter-war era fighters, but with modern sensors and an improved, lighter-weight machine gun.

[Alben Barkley]

Putin's Russia 'has become a fascist state' and must be stopped in Ukraine, says ex-diplomat who defected after the invasion

[jaichind]

https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-sandu-protests-ceban/32075521.html

"Moldovan President Urges Extra Powers For Police Amid Ongoing Pro-Moscow Disturbances"

Pro-Russia protests in Moldova

[jaichind]

It is ironic that given how many Russo-Persian wars took place between the 1650s and 1820s now Iran emerge as a key ally for Russia.