Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So it seems that the events of the other day were triggered (hah) by a Russian officer deciding that copying the methods of the East India Company when dealing with Muslim recruits was a good and sensible idea.

Why should we be surprised?

[NOVA Green]

More info on how the Russian "partial mobilization" is proceeding:

Police and military officers swooped down on a Moscow business center this past week unannounced. They were looking for men to fight in Ukraine — and they seized nearly every one they saw. Some musicians, rehearsing. A courier there to deliver a parcel. A man from a Moscow service agency, very drunk, in his mid-50s, with a walking disability.

Police and military press-gangs in recent days have snatched men off the streets and outside Metro stations. They’ve lurked in apartment building lobbies to hand out military summonses. They’ve raided office blocks and hostels. They’ve invaded cafes and restaurants, blocking the exits.

At a predawn sweep on the Mipstroy1 construction company dormitories on Thursday, they took more than 200 men. On Oct. 9, they rounded up dozens at a Moscow shelter for the homeless.

In a sign that the government fears a growing urban backlash over the raids, Andrei Klishas, a senior member of Putin’s United Russia party, said Friday that the conscription drives were illegal.

As the backlash intensifies, some Russians are confronting authorities and recording videos. A woman berated a team in the lobby of her St. Petersburg apartment building. A Russian truck driver posted video of himself confronting a police officer and a military enlistment official who tried to take him to the enlistment office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/16/russia-mobilization-men/

[GeneralMacArthur]

So is Russia basically just a client state of Iran now?

Wouldn't be surprised if in a decade or two Russia is dependent on Iran's nuclear technology to keep its arsenal up and running.

[NOVA Green]

Another Russian military recruitment office goes up in flames, this one apparently the 2nd time it has been hit:

In the town of Shchelkovo near Moscow, on the night of October 16, a military enlistment office was set on fire. The city public “Typical Shchelkovo” on VKontakte posted photos showing smoke coming out of the building.

A Molotov cocktail was thrown through the window on the first floor of the military registration and enlistment office, the Baza telegram channel claims without specifying the source.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/16/schelkovo

[NOVA Green]

Russian Military discipline and multiethnic cohesion at work...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581720325640757248?s=20&t=1x5hk-GQDlQw7a...

[NOVA Green]

Russia is pulling MiG-29s from storage:

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/rosiya-znimaye-zi-zberigannya-vynyshhuvachi-myg-29/

[Person Man]

So is Russia basically just a client state of Iran now?

Wouldn't be surprised if in a decade or two Russia is dependent on Iran's nuclear technology to keep its arsenal up and running.

That would be sad.

[Logical]

Quite a haunting image.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1581721575597883392

[Badger]

Ukraine trying it's hardest to beat the clock while RU mobilization keeps ticking.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1581191691679080449

It seriously boggles the mind how you can objectively look at Russia’s problems during this war and concluded that mobilization is some big game changer for them

A worrying thought came to me. As someone pointed out a few posts before this one there's sort of a race before the autumn rains kick in and seriously hamper Ukraine's counter offensive. Could that potentially give Russia the opportunity to turn these utterly raw and demoralized recruits into something remotely approximating a fighting force? Or at least something that can be assigned to guard supply lines, pow camps, and all the behind the lines work and therefore free up somewhat better trained troops for the front lines?

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1581198080191664128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...
The comments are brutal. More money taken away from American taxpayers for a hopeless foreign war they have no investment in.

Okay traitor.

This isn’t helpful in any way. It almost reminds me of how people were post-9/11 if you questioned Bush’s actions at all. For months we have been sending money to Ukraine and I haven’t seen any results whatsoever. There is still a war and I see no signs Ukraine is even close to winning. Do we just keep sending them a blank check indefinitely? And would Ukraine support us if we truly needed them? Where is the cutoff here and why?

To be clear I am not defending Russia’s actions in any way, that would be ridiculous. But we need to move toward peace in some way; this isn’t sustainable in the long term and could drag out for years.

even if it drags out for years, that means the russkies are fighting over there and not at America's shores.

that's y its important to help the forces of global democracy over there fight Axis of Evil regimes before they get out of control and can do even more damage and threaten the entire world rather than just their region.

If the west had toppled Hitler in 1933 many millions would have survived who instead died due to appeasement that allowed the forces of evil time to gain strength.

I understand the logic here but Putin is hardly Adolf Hitler. Russia is a weak second-world country whose military has proven to be ill-equipped and unprepared for combat. it is hardly the type of army that Germany had in the 40s, and I doubt he could even defeat Poland at this point.

NATO is the red line. If he goes after any NATO country then I fully support military involvement, though Poland by itself would likely be able to take them for that matter. I feel for Ukraine, I truly do, but I don’t think Putin poses much of a threat for anyone else other than them.

Imagine thinking that, a, Putin isn't utterly morally reprehensible and bloody as Hitler simply because he hasn't literally reopened book involved, b, that fundamental American strategic interests are not at play here despite Ukraine not - at least yet - being a NATO member, or c, that despite its corruption and difficulties it is fundamentally on the side of liberal democracy under attack from a bunch of mass raping, child torturing, ethnic kidnapping/cleansing purveyors of mass War atrocities.

[Badger]

I see some people are surprised that points of view that most of the people in the Third World and/or the more isolationistic section of the country have exist on the internet.
Sorry to break your bubble, but not everyone agrees with you!
I wonder how you would define "trolling", because if it is "disagrees with me on consensus issue in American politics", that's a pretty over-inclusive definition.

Unlike woodbury, b i l u p s and to a lesser degree slytherchind, you are not a troll. You are however grossly, grossly off base with your both sidesism and general support of isolationism in this matter. But at least you are usually worthy of a response unlike those others.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1581198080191664128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...
The comments are brutal. More money taken away from American taxpayers for a hopeless foreign war they have no investment in.

Okay traitor.

This isn’t helpful in any way. It almost reminds me of how people were post-9/11 if you questioned Bush’s actions at all. For months we have been sending money to Ukraine and I haven’t seen any results whatsoever. There is still a war and I see no signs Ukraine is even close to winning. Do we just keep sending them a blank check indefinitely? And would Ukraine support us if we truly needed them? Where is the cutoff here and why?

To be clear I am not defending Russia’s actions in any way, that would be ridiculous. But we need to move toward peace in some way; this isn’t sustainable in the long term and could drag out for years.

even if it drags out for years, that means the russkies are fighting over there and not at America's shores.

that's y its important to help the forces of global democracy over there fight Axis of Evil regimes before they get out of control and can do even more damage and threaten the entire world rather than just their region.

If the west had toppled Hitler in 1933 many millions would have survived who instead died due to appeasement that allowed the forces of evil time to gain strength.

I understand the logic here but Putin is hardly Adolf Hitler. Russia is a weak second-world country whose military has proven to be ill-equipped and unprepared for combat. it is hardly the type of army that Germany had in the 40s, and I doubt he could even defeat Poland at this point.

NATO is the red line. If he goes after any NATO country then I fully support military involvement, though Poland by itself would likely be able to take them for that matter. I feel for Ukraine, I truly do, but I don’t think Putin poses much of a threat for anyone else other than them.

Imagine thinking that, a, Putin isn't utterly morally reprehensible and bloody as Hitler simply because he hasn't literally reopened book involved, b, that fundamental American strategic interests are not at play here despite Ukraine not - at least yet - being a NATO member, or c, that despite its corruption and difficulties it is fundamentally on the side of liberal democracy under attack from a bunch of mass raping, child torturing, ethnic kidnapping/cleansing purveyors of mass War atrocities.

I mean would you say Suddam was as evil as Hitler then or Stalin was as evil as Hitler . Like you can say someone is very evil without saying they are as evil as Hitler as pretty much no one in modern human history has been as evil as Hitler .

[Badger]

Putin and Russia are enemies of America and of the west.

But by that logic cannot one also say that Ho Chi Minh and DRV were enemies of the USA in the 1960s?  It does not seem to me that people in the 1960s that might not have approved of DRV but questioned the value cost and way the Vietnam war was being waged can be called traiors.  Perhaps at a technical level, you can say that about protestors that sang "Ho Ho Ho Chi Minh NLF is going to win !!" but even I might not agree.  First DRV never really threatened USA national sovereignty and those protesters never really supported Ho Chi Minh but were using him as a proxy to project their vision of the USA which was clearly different from the establishment vision of the USA.  I might not agree with this alterative vision of the USA of the protestors but that would not make me call them traitors unless USA national sovereignty was at stake. 

If you can't distinguish between the level of financial, intelligence, and Military hardware Aid with almost no Americans with actually boots on the ground, from committing hundreds of thousands of American servicemen to Vietnam and resulting in nearly 60,000 deaths, you are being intellectually dishonest in the extreme.

Furthermore, by any objective standard the level of justification for supporting Ukraine compared to South Vietnam- remember even Dwight Eisenhower saying Ho Chi Minh would probably win 80% of the vote in a fair election - is vastly greater. So sorry not sorry that your expressly stated barbaric ideal of Might makes right is offended by this.

[DINGO Joe]

Quite a haunting image.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1581721575597883392

War as Art. 

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Daark_web/status/1581675616126259200
https://twitter.com/PallanoMount/status/1581539876532809728
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1581626911188717569

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1581198080191664128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...
The comments are brutal. More money taken away from American taxpayers for a hopeless foreign war they have no investment in.

Okay traitor.

This isn’t helpful in any way. It almost reminds me of how people were post-9/11 if you questioned Bush’s actions at all. For months we have been sending money to Ukraine and I haven’t seen any results whatsoever. There is still a war and I see no signs Ukraine is even close to winning. Do we just keep sending them a blank check indefinitely? And would Ukraine support us if we truly needed them? Where is the cutoff here and why?

To be clear I am not defending Russia’s actions in any way, that would be ridiculous. But we need to move toward peace in some way; this isn’t sustainable in the long term and could drag out for years.

even if it drags out for years, that means the russkies are fighting over there and not at America's shores.

that's y its important to help the forces of global democracy over there fight Axis of Evil regimes before they get out of control and can do even more damage and threaten the entire world rather than just their region.

If the west had toppled Hitler in 1933 many millions would have survived who instead died due to appeasement that allowed the forces of evil time to gain strength.

I understand the logic here but Putin is hardly Adolf Hitler. Russia is a weak second-world country whose military has proven to be ill-equipped and unprepared for combat. it is hardly the type of army that Germany had in the 40s, and I doubt he could even defeat Poland at this point.

NATO is the red line. If he goes after any NATO country then I fully support military involvement, though Poland by itself would likely be able to take them for that matter. I feel for Ukraine, I truly do, but I don’t think Putin poses much of a threat for anyone else other than them.

Imagine thinking that, a, Putin isn't utterly morally reprehensible and bloody as Hitler simply because he hasn't literally reopened book involved, b, that fundamental American strategic interests are not at play here despite Ukraine not - at least yet - being a NATO member, or c, that despite its corruption and difficulties it is fundamentally on the side of liberal democracy under attack from a bunch of mass raping, child torturing, ethnic kidnapping/cleansing purveyors of mass War atrocities.

I mean would you say Suddam was as evil as Hitler then or Stalin was as evil as Hitler . Like you can say someone is very evil without saying they are as evil as Hitler as pretty much no one in modern human history has been as evil as Hitler .

Putin isn't as evil as Hitler, but the unfortunate truth is that a lot of people were or are. It's just that few people have had Hitler's kind of power. Various IS leaders, Pol Pot etc. probably approach that point.

[Woody]

At the same time Belarus has been donating equipment/tanks these last weeks during mobilization so the northern "joint grouping" might be a ruse.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1581718529438789633
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581021899336781825

[Woody]

All seemingly going to Russia imo

https://twitter.com/SwampGhost22/status/1581711817679679489
https://twitter.com/NomadIntel/status/1581720191083638784
https://twitter.com/ximtex/status/1581740909963591680

[jaichind]

Any Russian attempt to take Kiev is almost certainly to be a feint.  Russia capturing Kiev will not end the war so it is not worth its effort to risk fighting in such a large urban area.  Russia is much better off using its manpower surge in expanding its current holdings and then bleeding Ukraine when they lunch counterattacks.

[Woody]

Another wave of drone attacks coming, Mykolaiv:

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1581730810625134592
https://twitter.com/DonkeyJunkMedia/status/1581750147481903104

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Putin and Russia are enemies of America and of the west.

But by that logic cannot one also say that Ho Chi Minh and DRV were enemies of the USA in the 1960s?  It does not seem to me that people in the 1960s that might not have approved of DRV but questioned the value cost and way the Vietnam war was being waged can be called traiors.  Perhaps at a technical level, you can say that about protestors that sang "Ho Ho Ho Chi Minh NLF is going to win !!" but even I might not agree.  First DRV never really threatened USA national sovereignty and those protesters never really supported Ho Chi Minh but were using him as a proxy to project their vision of the USA which was clearly different from the establishment vision of the USA.  I might not agree with this alterative vision of the USA of the protestors but that would not make me call them traitors unless USA national sovereignty was at stake. 

If you can't distinguish between the level of financial, intelligence, and Military hardware Aid with almost no Americans with actually boots on the ground, from committing hundreds of thousands of American servicemen to Vietnam and resulting in nearly 60,000 deaths, you are being intellectually dishonest in the extreme.

Furthermore, by any objective standard the level of justification for supporting Ukraine compared to South Vietnam- remember even Dwight Eisenhower saying Ho Chi Minh would probably win 80% of the vote in a fair election - is vastly greater. So sorry not sorry that your expressly stated barbaric ideal of Might makes right is offended by this.

It's not even might makes right. It would be might makes right if Putin were, you know, doing well in the war.

[Virginiá]

At the same time Belarus has been donating equipment/tanks these last weeks during mobilization so the northern "joint grouping" might be a ruse.

It's possible they are sending some heavy weapons to help other Russian army groups while also committing the bulk of theirs to a new front. I'm unsure myself whether this is just a feint to tie up Ukrainian forces in the north or whether they actually intend to join with Russian forces in a new northern offensive. It is now pretty clear though, in my opinion, that Belarus is actually getting ready for a fight and giving significant equipment to Russia.

I don't really know how many of their vehicles work properly, but they have many hundreds of tanks and over 1,500 of various kinds of APC/IFVs (like the BMP and BTR). Overall on paper Belarus has significant amounts of heavy weapons. Things could get complicated and deadly if they do attack Ukraine. People have frequently pilloried the fighting ability of this theoretical grouping, but even if they fail, it is still going to cost a lot of Ukrainian lives and equipment, and that will hurt Ukrainian efforts in other parts of the country and just continue to prolong the suffering of their people.

[Virginiá]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1581753214214758400

[Badger]

There is literally no comparison between Ho Chi Minh/Vietnam in the 1960´s and Putin/Russia right now. In the end the Vietnamese were fighting a civil war over control of their own country. At no point did Vietnam pose a credible threat to the US or it's allies.

Putin on the other hand did invade a foreign nation to increase his interests. He threatens the west with nuclear war if he does not get his way and has the goods to back those words.

Ho Chi Minh was a national threat, maybe regional. Putin is a threat to the world.

Just to be clear the Vietnam war was not a civil war.  The 1954 Geneva Conference which the Viet Minh was party to created DRV and RVN as two separate states as well as Laos and Cambodia which clearly and legally defined boundaries.  There was a goal of unifying DRV and RVN a few years down the line which was never implemented (much like the 2015 Minsk Accords were never implemented).  But the Vietnam war that started in 1956 included DRV regular forces crossing international borders into Laos and then eventually RVN.  

BTW, the opposite is true for PRC and ROC.  That was a Chinese Civil war that never ended and never created any international boundaries.  A PRC attack on ROC today would not be crossing international boundaries and would merely be the resumption of a Chinese Civil war.

Sure jan.

If you or anyone else believes that twaddle you posted above deserves a more detailed response, please read my signature.

[Badger]

Absolute savages.

https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/1581609133983535104?t=3pDAbpWket7lOkA-3zr3zw...

If Ukraine was so concerned about sexual assault why did it let out Ruslan Onishchenko, leader of the "Tornado Battalion", back in July to fight at the front
https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/521825-osuzhdennyy-za-pytki-byvshiy-kombat-tornado-onishchenko-vyshel-na-svobodu-eks-nardep

Der Spiegel had a 2015 article documenting the sexual assault activities of the  "Tornado Battalion"
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-prozess-gegen-pro-ukrainischer-kaempfer-a-1045801.html

If this is your response to a state sponsored strategy encouraging systemic sexual terror then I have nothing to say to you.

Slytherchind's most likely actual response would be to invest heavily in any pharmaceutical company selling Viagra knockoffs directly to russia. What's a little Mass rape with many child victims if he can increase his stock portfolio value?