COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[lfromnj]

So anyone want to actually explain why teaching shouldn't involve more than 2 hours of live instruction per day and why I'm wrong or they just going to say I don't understand anything?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So anyone want to actually explain why teaching shouldn't involve more than 2 hours of live instruction per day and why I'm wrong or they just going to say I don't understand anything?

We should support no school openings so we can destroy public schooling forever. Bolster the rapidly ascending Catholic school enrollments! Things have really been made great again. I was a little worried about Cuomo's vision of online schooling future until I realized that any sensible person of means would withdraw their tax dollars.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I don't have a problem with teacher unions opposing reopening schools, my problem is when they make absurd demands like limiting online instruction to 2 hours a day maximum, when such absurd demands are made they should not be listened to and one should go Reagan 1981. I still moderately oppose reopening schools but I just find it insane what the unions are doing.

Sounds like you know literally nothing about teaching. Keep it up.

Explain why the unions should be listened to over their demands of limiting live instruction to 2 hours a day? Shouldn't the goal be to as close to as normal school as possible?

“Instruction” is not the only meaningful interaction teachers have with kids. There is on-the-spot feedback, conferences, workshopping, one-on-one coaching, questions and answers, independent work time for the kids... Two cumulative hours of straight instruction in front of 30 kids is more than what most teachers would give even on a normal school day. There are innovative ways to offer “instruction” alongside all the other things I mentioned as part of distance learning. In total it is still a full day’s work for teachers. It just means they are not necessarily live on camera for two hours.

Most parents do not want their kids staring at a screen for that long anyway.

[lfromnj]

I don't have a problem with teacher unions opposing reopening schools, my problem is when they make absurd demands like limiting online instruction to 2 hours a day maximum, when such absurd demands are made they should not be listened to and one should go Reagan 1981. I still moderately oppose reopening schools but I just find it insane what the unions are doing.

Sounds like you know literally nothing about teaching. Keep it up.

Explain why the unions should be listened to over their demands of limiting live instruction to 2 hours a day? Shouldn't the goal be to as close to as normal school as possible?

“Instruction” is not the only meaningful interaction teachers have with kids. There is on-the-spot feedback, conferences, workshopping, one-on-one coaching, questions and answers, independent work time for the kids... Two cumulative hours of straight instruction in front of 30 kids is more than what most teachers would give even on a normal school day. There are innovative ways to offer “instruction” alongside all the other things I mentioned as part of distance learning. In total it is still a full day’s work for teachers. It just means they are not necessarily live on camera for two hours.

Most parents do not want their kids staring at a screen for that long anyway.

Any of the worksheets or anything would be due staring at the screen anyway. Why does the union want a maximum of 2 hours?

Why are LA teacher unions demanding a ban of charter schools to get back to work? All this gives them the right to do is assign some worksheet and tell them to do it. Thats literally what the Union wants. Why not just assign Khan Academy at this point?

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/5 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>

7/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,371,839 (+56,151 | ΔW Change: ↓11.24% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 149,849 (+454 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

7/27: <M>

• Cases: 4,433,392 (+61,553 | ΔW Change: ↓4.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
• Deaths: 150,444 (+595 | ΔW Change: ↑5.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

7/28: <T>

• Cases: 4,498,343 (+64,951 | ΔW Change: ↓3.26% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 152,320 (+1,876 | ΔW Change: ↑67.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

7/29: <W>

• Cases: 4,568,037 (+69,694 | ΔW Change: ↓3.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
• Deaths: 153,840 (+1,520 | ΔW Change: ↑23.58% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

7/30: <Þ>

• Cases: 4,634,985 (+66,948 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 155,285 (+1,445 | ΔW Change: ↑25.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

7/31: <F>

• Cases: 4,705,889 (+70,904 | ΔW Change: ↓9.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 156,747 (+1,462 | ΔW Change: ↑26.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/1: <S>

• Cases: 4,764,318 (+58,429 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 157,898 (+1,151 | ΔW Change: ↑27.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)

8/2: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3: <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

8/4 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 4,918,420 (+56,246 | ΔW Change: ↓13.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 160,290 (+1,361 | ΔW Change: ↓27.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)

8/5 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 4,973,568 (+55,148 | ΔW Change: ↓20.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 161,601 (+1,311 | ΔW Change: ↓13.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that cases have subsided somewhat in Arizona, California, Florida. But they remain very high in Texas and a bunch of mid-sized states (Oklahoma, Mississippi, etc.).

[Koharu]

33,000 children.

[Landslide Lyndon]

33,000 children.

Like comrade Stalin said “a single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic”.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1291412472436592650

Holy crap

[Badger]

And now my 94 year old nursing home resident grandmother has tested positive.

[Koharu]

And now my 94 year old nursing home resident grandmother has tested positive.

I'm so sorry, Badger. Praying for her, your family, and the folks at her home.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1291412472436592650

Holy crap

DeWine is now the second Governor to contract coronavirus, following Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma. This nefarious disease knows no boundaries, and who knows how many more individuals, both prominent and not so prominent, will contract it between now and November.

[Hammy]

https://www.complex.com/life/2020/08/georgia-students-suspended-for-sharing-viral-pictures-of-packed-school-hallway

Apparently it's a crime to show that Kemp is lying about it being safe to return to school.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Mike DeWine has tested negative for coronavirus in the more accurate tests:

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1291548735772798977

May have been a false positive with the rapid tests.

[Calthrina950]

Mike DeWine has tested negative for coronavirus in the more accurate tests:

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1291548735772798977

May have been a false positive with the rapid tests.

Glad to hear this!

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/6 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>

7/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,371,839 (+56,151 | ΔW Change: ↓11.24% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 149,849 (+454 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

7/27: <M>

• Cases: 4,433,392 (+61,553 | ΔW Change: ↓4.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
• Deaths: 150,444 (+595 | ΔW Change: ↑5.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

7/28: <T>

• Cases: 4,498,343 (+64,951 | ΔW Change: ↓3.26% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 152,320 (+1,876 | ΔW Change: ↑67.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

7/29: <W>

• Cases: 4,568,037 (+69,694 | ΔW Change: ↓3.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
• Deaths: 153,840 (+1,520 | ΔW Change: ↑23.58% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

7/30: <Þ>

• Cases: 4,634,985 (+66,948 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 155,285 (+1,445 | ΔW Change: ↑25.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

7/31: <F>

• Cases: 4,705,889 (+70,904 | ΔW Change: ↓9.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 156,747 (+1,462 | ΔW Change: ↑26.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/1: <S>

• Cases: 4,764,318 (+58,429 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 157,898 (+1,151 | ΔW Change: ↑27.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)

8/2: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3: <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

8/4: <T>

• Cases: 4,918,420 (+56,246 | ΔW Change: ↓13.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 160,290 (+1,361 | ΔW Change: ↓27.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)

8/5 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 4,973,568 (+55,148 | ΔW Change: ↓20.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 161,601 (+1,311 | ΔW Change: ↓13.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/6 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 5,032,179 (+58,611 | ΔW Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 162,804 (+1,203 | ΔW Change: ↓16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/amhill/status/1291531958154137601

[emailking]

Dr. Vin Gupta on MSNBC said false negatives are like 10% common in the rapid test, but false positives are extremely rare so Dewine's negative test the same day should be disregarded.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1291714264554786817

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1291715108243230721

[Koharu]

Dr. Vin Gupta on MSNBC said false negatives are like 10% common in the rapid test, but false positives are extremely rare so Dewine's negative test the same day should be disregarded.

I have a feeling they'll be retesting him pretty regularly over the next few days to see if they can sort the matter out.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1291432607440347148

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1291714264554786817

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1291715108243230721

It’s still going to be over 8 on Election Day. Especially with the stimulus being over.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1291714264554786817

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1291715108243230721

It’s still going to be over 8 on Election Day. Especially with the stimulus being over.

It's going to be the world's shiniest turd by that point.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/7 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>

7/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,371,839 (+56,151 | ΔW Change: ↓11.24% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 149,849 (+454 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

7/27: <M>

• Cases: 4,433,392 (+61,553 | ΔW Change: ↓4.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
• Deaths: 150,444 (+595 | ΔW Change: ↑5.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

7/28: <T>

• Cases: 4,498,343 (+64,951 | ΔW Change: ↓3.26% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 152,320 (+1,876 | ΔW Change: ↑67.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

7/29: <W>

• Cases: 4,568,037 (+69,694 | ΔW Change: ↓3.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
• Deaths: 153,840 (+1,520 | ΔW Change: ↑23.58% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

7/30: <Þ>

• Cases: 4,634,985 (+66,948 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 155,285 (+1,445 | ΔW Change: ↑25.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

7/31: <F>

• Cases: 4,705,889 (+70,904 | ΔW Change: ↓9.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 156,747 (+1,462 | ΔW Change: ↑26.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/1: <S>

• Cases: 4,764,318 (+58,429 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 157,898 (+1,151 | ΔW Change: ↑27.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)

8/2: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3: <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

8/4: <T>

• Cases: 4,918,420 (+56,246 | ΔW Change: ↓13.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 160,290 (+1,361 | ΔW Change: ↓27.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)

8/5: <W>

• Cases: 4,973,568 (+55,148 | ΔW Change: ↓20.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 161,601 (+1,311 | ΔW Change: ↓13.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/6 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 5,032,179 (+58,611 | ΔW Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 162,804 (+1,203 | ΔW Change: ↓16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)

8/7 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 5,095,524 (+63,345 | ΔW Change: ↓10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.26%)
• Deaths: 164,094 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

[It’s so Joever]

So...this is anecdotal, but some of the people working in the ICU in my area have told my mother (she is friends with them) that the cases themselves are very different from March. Symptoms look different, hospitalizations look different, and disease progression is much different. In other words, it’s less severe than is was in March on an average individual case level. This leads me to believe on of six things/a combination of these things are happening (ordered in likeliest to lest likely in my unprofessional opinion)

1. Younger people are getting infected and get it milder as far as we know.
This one is pretty much proven, the real question is whether this is the only factor causing this change.
2. We have more testing.
Again, this is proven/an established fact. Maybe we are testing better for milder cases.
3. We have better treatments.
Back in March, many hospitals didn’t even prone patients. That alone, plus the numerous advances in procedures and medication options may be behind some of the  lowering severity/death rates.
4. Darwin’s Theory
This is saying basically the vulnerable people in our community have either gotten sick and died, or have adapted their behavior, and now the less vulnerable are the only ones getting sick. It ties in with one. That being said, I’ve seen plenty of elderly people going around like everything is okay, so this is lower.
5. Mutation
This would be the ideal one for us imo, and it’s basically the idea that the virus mutates and is now more effective at spreading because it is milder. Still, I hesitate to say this given how well Covid already was spreading. It’s possible, but we don’t have evidence for this one.
6. The virus developed sentience and decided to be less of an a**hole.
Hey it’s 2020, anything is possible.


 Obligatory note so that a certain user doesn’t take this out of context:
None of this is to downplay the virus, the same ICU workers still are seeing long term organ damage in even the milder/asymptomatic cases and hospitals are still seeing shortages across the country. This is no flu, no matter what the virus-truthers want to say on Atlas. Covid-19 is still a threat and we should not treat it as a regular seasonal illness (because it’s not)