Early Voting thread.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

It seems like I remember that in past elections, 32% Black vote was sort of the needed threshold.  Does the current numbers indicate lower Black turnout... or is the White turnout down also (meaning is other higher than prior years)?  

...not sure if 32% was overall- or early voters.

First of all: we have to sort the difference between SoS black electoral share and actual black electoral share.

Secondly, to address your question before I go into more specifics: the real [white-minus-black EV margin] - relative to its share of the final electorate - is the smallest (i.e. in favor of Ds) in the history of regularly-scheduled general elections. Maybe for EV in 2008 or 2012 it was better with the W-B margin, but in those elections, it would have comprised more like 20-30% of the final electorate rather than the majority it does today.

Based on exit polls and/or general reporting of actual black electorate share post-2016, 30-32% is a good figure for D victory in Georgia (Biden won by 0.3 points with a true black electorate of 30.2%; Warnock and Ossoff won by an average of 1.6 points at 31.9% in the runoffs). However, in no election has the SoS figure been that high. In fact, the SoS figure has never cracked 30% in final (EV+ED) SoS official counts ever! In terms of final total, 28.95% was the highest in recorded history (2018 GE) - slightly lower than the present black EV share I've projected.

The SoS official "unknown/other" categories currently make up almost 10% of EVs: in every general election final tally since 2016, this figure has never been lower than 7.8%. These categories are generally reflective of newly-registered - which means they're generally reflective of under-30s as well. In a state like GA, the difference between the under-30s and the over-65s racially-speaking is pretty vast.

Long story short: the official SoS numbers I've been posting underestimate all racial/ethnic groups. For blacks specifically, add 3-4 points to their share; add at least 4 points to whites. Below are my outputs for customized formulas for each specific election since 2016 with regard to reassigning the "Other/Unknowns" (in the 'Adj Pct' column; the official SoS figures are in the column to the left, under 'Pct'): currently, the black EV share exceeds the best EV+ED performance in the history of Georgia (2021 runoffs) by nearly a percentage point.

Not to say that that will hold once ED votes come in (it won't, but I doubt real ED vote share will be less than 25-26% black), but it's difficult to see the true black share dropping much below 2018 levels in the worst-case scenario. True black share will almost certainly be in between 2018 and 2021 runoff levels (i.e. 31.x%).

[wbrocks67]

I really hope it's apples and oranges in Nevada because the early vote looks pretty bleak.   Dems will be lucky to hold the legislature at this rate (if the numbers are comparable to previous elections).

The Dem margin in early votes is down to 5,200 votes total, that's horrible.

It is, but in person early voting is over. There's a few days of mail ballots to beef up that margin, plus anything postmarked by election day is counted still

Exactly; the Clark firewall was 47K when all was said and done in 2018 early vote. By Tuesday, it could definitely approach 40K depending on what comes in this weekend.

Lol

I'm sorry that you don't like actual facts and data!

How is a “could be” a fact?

You know what I meant - I'm not saying these numbers will happen, but forumlurker as usual is completely disregarding that just using the way things have been going shows a different picture than what he's parroting. Literally just using the data we already have and extrapolating it over the next few days

[wbrocks67]

The problem with Nevada (Clark specifically, which as a single county I believe comprises a greater share of a statewide electorate than any other in the country) is how independents go: not a lot of great comparable data-points for this election.

In theory and independent of this election/climate, the Clarke firewall could be 50k and Dems could still lose; inversely, the firewall could be 15k and Dems could still win. If indies go 10 points in favor of either party, that creates a 20-point margin gap among 30% of the electorate across 75% of the state = (20 x 0.3 x 0.75): that's a 4.5 point margin differential. In a state like NV, that's fairly huge: the difference between the 2018 wins versus statistical ties or the difference between close D wins and outright R wins.

Yeah, though I would say that it appears quite a lot of the "Others" are also young voters as well, given some of that John guy's tweets/graphs. As the others have taken more of a bump in the early vote/mail, it appears that young voter participation has also gone up. So it's hard to tell exactly how they will ultimately shake out.

[wbrocks67]

Clark firewall stands at 29,2k votes. Add around 400 from Washoe.

Clark firewall is around 7% which is not good for Dems.

Waiting for full rural numbers today.

Like with my point on the last page though, firewall doesn't end today though. If the mail ballots shake out in numbers and % the way they've done recently, and we have 3 more dumps pre-election day, we should be looking at a 40-45k firewall on Tuesday morning. We'll see how much mail comes in this weekend though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not worried I trust blk and Brown and female Voting g that goes D and there are gonna be 300K statewide provisional ballots that always get counted late and the military isn't all R anymore half the military now are females because we aren't in a major war anymore

[Vern]

Does anyone have any numbers out of NC?

[bilaps]

Clark firewall stands at 29,2k votes. Add around 400 from Washoe.

Clark firewall is around 7% which is not good for Dems.

Waiting for full rural numbers today.

Like with my point on the last page though, firewall doesn't end today though. If the mail ballots shake out in numbers and % the way they've done recently, and we have 3 more dumps pre-election day, we should be looking at a 40-45k firewall on Tuesday morning. We'll see how much mail comes in this weekend though.

All percentages are comparable with weekend prior to election though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GinaForAustin/status/1588703703892168705

This is pretty impressive.

[wbrocks67]

Clark firewall stands at 29,2k votes. Add around 400 from Washoe.

Clark firewall is around 7% which is not good for Dems.

Waiting for full rural numbers today.

Like with my point on the last page though, firewall doesn't end today though. If the mail ballots shake out in numbers and % the way they've done recently, and we have 3 more dumps pre-election day, we should be looking at a 40-45k firewall on Tuesday morning. We'll see how much mail comes in this weekend though.

All percentages are comparable with weekend prior to election though.

Right, but 2018 didn't have mail coming in thru next week that changed the nature of it, so essentially in 2018 = the final EV was the friday before. This year, the final EV = the Tuesday morning (or late Monday night) before.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588883116068065281

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588883116068065281

I can't say I'm surprised by this. It's always the blue areas that experience election problems for some reason. And by "some reason", I of course mean GOP voter suppression.

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have any numbers out of NC?

Here's the final early/mail totals for 2018 and 2020, and the total so far this year:

2018: 2.03M (42.4% D, 30.3% R) - D+12.1
2020: 4.60M (37.3% D, 31.7% R) - D+5.6
2022: 1.97M (38.1% D, 31.6% R) - D+6.5

[It’s so Joever]

Clark firewall has gone up to 29k, still far below what it was and this is with much of the mail in.

[2016]

Regarding Ohio:
About 35-40 % will be Early Vote. 60 % will be E-Day Vote.

Now do your Map if Ryan has a chance of winning like Olowakandi claims he has.

[SCNCmod]

Does anyone know how Early Voting numbers in NC are looking?


For those unfamiliar with the race in NC- this is a new Rolling Stone article today, that goes in to the campaign strategies of the candidates, etc....

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/cheri-beasley-ted-budd-north-carolina-1234624652/

[MikeIrvine]

Clark firewall has gone up to 29k, still far below what it was and this is with much of the mail in.

Still several days of mail only plus late ballots.

[It’s so Joever]

Does anyone know how Early Voting numbers in NC are looking?


For those unfamiliar with the race in NC- this is a new Rolling Stone article today, that goes in to the campaign strategies of the candidates, etc....

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/cheri-beasley-ted-budd-north-carolina-1234624652/

Surprinsgly not terrible for Ds right now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Can someone clarify something for me about the Nevada numbers?:
- I'm reading that in 2018, the Clark "firewall" was 47k
- Right now, the Clark "firewall" is 29k

And the difference here is supposed to spell absolutely doom for the Democrats.

But Rosen won the 2018 Senate race by about 50k votes! It was a huge Dem wave election year.  Why would getting 18k fewer votes this year be either unsurprising or predictive of a Republican victory?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone clarify something for me about the Nevada numbers?:
- I'm reading that in 2018, the Clark "firewall" was 47k
- Right now, the Clark "firewall" is 29k

And the difference here is supposed to spell absolutely doom for the Democrats.

But Rosen won the 2018 Senate race by about 50k votes! It was a huge Dem wave election year.  Why would getting 18k fewer votes this year be either unsurprising or predictive of a Republican victory?

Because it's expected that independents will vote more R this year than they did in 2018.  I wouldn't say it's absolute doom, though; the tone in Ralston's latest blog update is that you'd rather be the Republicans right now, but it's by no means a done deal.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Something to consider: Nevada has universal DMV voter registration now and this has shifted party composition of young voters in some pretty dramatic ways. Namely, majority of "first time" voters are now unaffiliated. Since young voters are most likely to be registered through this system and not bother changing to a party or filling out some form, I think you have to say that unaffiliated this year are a more Dem group than in past years.

[Eraserhead]

Anything new/interesting from Pennsylvania or Wisconsin?

[RI]

Something to consider: Nevada has universal DMV voter registration now and this has shifted party composition of young voters in some pretty dramatic ways. Namely, majority of "first time" voters are now unaffiliated. Since young voters are most likely to be registered through this system and not bother changing to a party or filling out some form, I think you have to say that unaffiliated this year are a more Dem group than in past years.

Young voters are not turning out much at all so far this year, basically anywhere.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1589033141712613376?s=20&t=qcQ-vS8Qy5...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1589033141712613376?s=20&t=qcQ-vS8Qy5...

Young Kim's homophobia has provoked God! There is no other explanation!

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1589033141712613376?s=20&t=qcQ-vS8Qy5...

Polling places are less busy now that mail is common, however. Probably has some effects on the margins though, but not as much as it would in 2012 or something.