Early Voting thread.

[NOVA Green]

A couple cross-posts from the OR-GOV thread:

Okay--- time for the daily OR ballot update.

11/7/22 9:54 AM DROP

Significant increase in total % of votes received between the 11/4/22 and the 11/7/22 update.

The part that gets a bit confusing for those attempting to cover the OR daily ballot return numbers, is that some counties are still working through recovering the numbers from the previous workdays returns and don't meet the state SoS publishing deadlines to report all numbers, but instead you get the "carryover" numbers from the preceding reporting period in the following daily returns, but yet allocated to the date in which ballots were received from boxes or via US Mail batches.

Regardless, I might get to that part a little bit later on in a subsequent post this PM, but will simply start with doing my usual drill of running the topline numbers from the official OR-SoS AM data dump after having posted the previous working-days official SoS reporting numbers:

11/04/22 UPDATE

DEM: 357,866 Returned     (+45,786 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 35.1% TOTAL TO to date (+4.5% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 292,391 Returned   (+39,884 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 39.7% TO to date  (+5.4% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 219,118 Returned    (+32,194 RVs Day-On-Day)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 17.7% TO to date  (+2.6% Day-On-Day)

11/07/22 UPDATE

TOTAL VOTES RETURNED TO DATE= 1,080,052 (36.0% of RVs)   
+210,677 (11/4 > 11/7) (+7.0% increase of Total RVs).

DEM: 446,224 Returned     (+88,378 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,328 Registered
DEM TO %: 43.7% TOTAL TO to date (+8.6% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 355,525 Returned   (+63,134 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,818 Registered
PUB TO %: 48.3% TO to date  (+8.6% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 278,283 Returned    (+59,165 RVs Day-On-Day)   
OTHERS: 1,239,498 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 22.5% TO to date  (+4.8% Day-On-Day)

Thinking about following up with another post shortly, since after all it is "Election Eve", which typically only happens in most places every two years in the US for GE, with the exception of more unusual things like special elections, off-cycle GOV elections in certain states such as VA & NJ, etc...

Might need to take a slight break and a puff of medicinal, since creating and running data numbers like this aren't especially easy to do in States where you can't easily export data files in various text based formats, and then instead are stuck with manual data entry from PDFs.

Get it that are file conversion software programs available for $$$, and where in theory can convert PDF file formats, run some code, convert into text files, and then convert into Excel using software such as Python or whatever...

Still, here is a B&W of current OR reported election ballots as of early today....

I might well run a few more numbers before Tomorrow, but no guarantees, plus need to relax a bit after a long day at the factory plus time-zone conversion and major random snow event which happened yesterday is messing with my groove.

[philly09]

Final update: 45 Million people have voted already. Not sure of the 2018/2020 numbers.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1589840749927202817

[AnOdyssey]

Seriously what is this 303 map being spoken of by certain posters?

[soundchaser]

Seriously what is this 303 map being spoken of by certain posters?

One of our more…eccentric posters has a habit of talking about a “303 map” referring to Biden’s victory in the EC over Trump in 2020. It’s just a little forum meme.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Seriously what is this 303 map being spoken of by certain posters?

One of our more…eccentric posters has a habit of talking about a “303 map” referring to Biden’s victory in the EC over Trump in 2020. It’s just a little forum meme.

Its also a roundabout way of saying Ohio and Florida no longer matter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds outpace Rs in AZ 39/37 Pa 70/30 and OH 44/39 I don't see how Oz, Masters and Vance win, and ah yes Vance is up by 7 LV and up only 1 in RV and WI Ds are outvoting R ah yes Johnson is up only 1 in CNN by by 5 in R polls

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589970025565151233

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

ABM Voting, Saturday-Monday: 19,269 ballots were returned, for a grand total of 2,524,348 votes.

As of Monday, 234,347 mail ballots have been returned and accepted, out of 271,185 total valid ballots: a 86.42% return rate.

Breakdown of Sat-Mon voters:

Code:

10358 	White	53.75%
5544 	Black	28.77%
978           Asian	5.08%
468    	Latino	2.43%
1921 	Other	9.97%

11668	Female	60.55%
7524 	Male	        39.05%	
77            Other         0.40%

Final pre-Election Day totals:

Code:

1448108	White	57.37%
736515	Black	29.18%
48475	Asian	1.92%
47779       Latino	1.89%
243471	Other	9.64%

1403585	Female	55.60%
1114550	Male	        44.15%	
6213	        Other	0.25%

[Adam Griffin]

This is a tad interesting given that some of the lowest ABM return rates thus far are in the metro counties (Fulton, for example, is the second lowest in the state: 76% compared to the statewide total of 86%), and some of the highest are in rural red areas. Of course, ABMs only amount to the equivalent of around 10% of the early vote, so maybe not that interesting.  

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1589768501803175936

[wbrocks67]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/asdfjkalsdfla/status/1589424569349439488
https://twitter.com/asdfjkalsdfla/status/1589424578530799617

Adam, you got any thoughts on this?

[wbrocks67]

Is that including today, or just early vote?

Would be surprised if the red areas were the ones lagging, considering early vote seemed to be robust for Dems *and* Reps?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is that including today, or just early vote?

Would be surprised if the red areas were the ones lagging, considering early vote seemed to be robust for Dems *and* Reps?

In the tweets I posted above?  Early vote only.

[Adam Griffin]

[Gwinnett County, GA tweets]

Adam, you got any thoughts on this?

I mean, it's perfectly normal for heavily-Latino and/or Asian areas to be disproportionately ED voters. This is a major phenomenon in my county as well; it hasn't been uncommon in the not-so-distant past for ED vote in Whitfield to be slightly more D than EV. Even in 2018, it was close (though it appears Gwinnett had substantially better EV D performance than ED):

 

A lot of this has to do with the fact that young people are also disproportionately ED voters, and median CVAP age for Latinos and Asians is much, much lower than the average voter. I don't see anything surprising there, per se, but it's all relative. Whether this is above or below average historical expectations, I can't say, but the overall phenomenon is not unusual.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/asdfjkalsdfla/status/1589424569349439488
https://twitter.com/asdfjkalsdfla/status/1589424578530799617

Adam, you got any thoughts on this?

My name's not Adam, but this can't be good.

[Unelectable Bystander]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

For reference, there were 360k voters statewide in 2020 and Trump won 66%. I think this is good for Masters at the moment, but it depends on the margins of republicans he’s pulling in along with how many of those 40% are independents and if it gets bluer later in the day.

[xavier110]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

The tweet is gone. Is this the one that said 100k voters?

It’s more like 40k, same 60 R - 25 I - 15 D split.

Should get bluer throughout the day, but probably not by much.

[SnowLabrador]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

The tweet is gone. Is this the one that said 100k voters?

It’s more like 40k, same 60 R - 25 I - 15 D split.

Should get bluer throughout the day, but probably not by much.

It looks like Masters is probably going to win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

The tweet is gone. Is this the one that said 100k voters?

It’s more like 40k, same 60 R - 25 I - 15 D split.

Should get bluer throughout the day, but probably not by much.

It looks like Masters is probably going to win.

Archer deleted the original tweet because he says he mistakenly was looking at data from the primary, not today.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

The tweet is gone. Is this the one that said 100k voters?

It’s more like 40k, same 60 R - 25 I - 15 D split.

Should get bluer throughout the day, but probably not by much.

It looks like Masters is probably going to win.

Archer deleted the original tweet because he says he mistakenly was looking at data from the primary, not today.

So none of those numbers were applicable?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

The tweet is gone. Is this the one that said 100k voters?

It’s more like 40k, same 60 R - 25 I - 15 D split.

Should get bluer throughout the day, but probably not by much.

It looks like Masters is probably going to win.

Archer deleted the original tweet because he says he mistakenly was looking at data from the primary, not today.

So none of those numbers were applicable?

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1590010785283313665

[Unelectable Bystander]

The number I’d look for today in AZ is about 180k, which is the point when it surpasses the early vote relative to 2020. If the vote gets much higher than that and it’s still majority republican, the turnout game will be R-friendly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston with another blog update, including this on what to look for tonight:

WHAT TO LOOK FOR TONIGHT: I’m not sure, as I never am, what numbers will post first but I will be most interested in the Clark early/mail numbers, those 450,000 votes. If Sisolak and Cortez Masto are ahead by under 10 percent, it could be a very long night. If they are as low as 6 or 7 points ahead, they will find it difficult to survive. They will need to win Washoe County to retain their seats, so look at those numbers when they pop up. Washoe turnout already is 43.5 percent. Election Day turnout may not be as robust there. Look at the raw vote totals, too, because I will go into the evening assuming a 50,000-vote deficit in the rurals for the top of the ticket incumbents, give or take. One more thing: In the first mostly mail election here two years ago, about 15 percent of the vote was counted after Election Day. No one I know expects mail to be that heavy this year — no pandemic, it's a midterm — but there will be thousands of mail ballots come in, with Dems likely winning them close to 2-to-1. It may not be over tonight.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

I’m bumping this because everyone piled on me and I was right

[wbrocks67]

Looks like TargetEarly was also right about WA numbers being no problem for Ds.