Early Voting thread.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

Day 18 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 168,894 voters cast ballots Thursday, for a grand total of 2,261,178 votes.

Continued positive indicators for Democrats: today's black share up from yesterday's by more than a point, while white vote share was down by almost two points. The overall EV electorate only became 0.02 points whiter than it was as of yesterday (57.87% to 57.89%).

Breakdown of Thursday's voters:

Code:

96687 	White	57.25%
46113 	Black	27.30%
3869         Asian	2.29%
4293    	Latino	2.54%
17932 	Other	10.62%

96751	Female	57.29%
71520 	Male	        42.35%	
623          Other         0.36%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1307398	White	57.89%
657443	Black	29.08%
41468	Asian	1.83%
40404       Latino	1.79%
214465	Other	9.41%

1252198	Female	55.38%
1003688	Male	        44.39%	
5292	        Other	0.23%

[Lief 🗽]

Forumluker69 took perhaps one of the biggest L's I've seen in my long, storied Atlas career... and now he's just doing the exact same thing again? In the same thread?! Like 24 hours later??!?

[Ferguson97]

Don't worry guys, there definitely will be 20,000 votes by mail that magically appear in Clark County...yes totally

I mean that literally happened like two days ago, so I don't know why you're being so dismissive of this possibility.

[It’s so Joever]

Forumluker69 took perhaps one of the biggest L's I've seen in my long, storied Atlas career... and now he's just doing the exact same thing again? In the same thread?! Like 24 hours later??!?

I will have the last laugh in a few days and that will more than make up for whatever small hits I take now.

[Lief 🗽]

Forumluker69 took perhaps one of the biggest L's I've seen in my long, storied Atlas career... and now he's just doing the exact same thing again? In the same thread?! Like 24 hours later??!?

I will have the last laugh in a few days and that will more than make up for whatever small hits I take now.

I mean I don't think anyone doubts that the GOP could sweep Nevada. But it's unlikely that that's because registered Democrats stopped voting yesterday for some reason.

[Adam Griffin]

Percentage of valid Georgia ABMs returned by county, as of 11/3. The statewide figure is 74.75% (204,549 out of 273,630).

Just a slight uptick compared to this result and the map wouldn't look anywhere nearly as lopsided: Gwinnett and Cobb are at 64.4% and 64.9%, & Douglas, Dekalb and Chatham are all between 69.7-69.9%.

<65% Counties: Biden +27
>65% Counties: Biden +42
>70% Counties: Tied
>75% Counties: Trump +23
>80% Counties: Trump +43
>85% Counties: Trump +47

[It’s so Joever]

Ralston updated, the firewall grew but only by 1,500 today including all the mail ins. There were 12k mail ins in total but only a 4K D margin that in person cut.

Im about ready to call Gov race for Lambado, if patterns continue Laxalt as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here are the PA early voting for those that already voted everyone are Dooming on Ds chances it's not Dooming

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588392767805587457?s=20&t=Mph43ZPpKfiB7xXjSdee6Q

[Hope For A New Era]

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.

GAS PRICES. I just realized it's probably gas prices causing this.

[bilaps]

Really strange mixed picture we're getting. Nevada really not looking good for Dems at all by this point and looking worse every day, but Pennsylvania and Michigan are the complete opposite. Even Ohio is looking strong, though it's still probably not enough to win. Mail ballots up to this point in all three states are far more D than both 2018 and 2020, and a little more D in Wisconsin as well.

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.


As a peculiar side note, apparently Iowa votes so far are like D+21? I can't help but think there must be some kind of error, because that just seems impossible to me. For comparison it was D+5 at the same point in 2018 and at D+9 at the same point in 2020.

It's not a mixed bag. Only in Nevada you could make conclusions on early vote, right?

[Umengus]

Really strange mixed picture we're getting. Nevada really not looking good for Dems at all by this point and looking worse every day, but Pennsylvania and Michigan are the complete opposite. Even Ohio is looking strong, though it's still probably not enough to win. Mail ballots up to this point in all three states are far more D than both 2018 and 2020, and a little more D in Wisconsin as well.

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.


As a peculiar side note, apparently Iowa votes so far are like D+21? I can't help but think there must be some kind of error, because that just seems impossible to me. For comparison it was D+5 at the same point in 2018 and at D+9 at the same point in 2020.

It's not a mixed bag. Only in Nevada you could make conclusions on early vote, right?

And Florida.

[wbrocks67]

Ralston keeps using the arbitrary day of today as the definitive "end of early vote" which continues to baffle me. Yes, that may have been the case in 2018, but we are still getting mail updates (and no more in person updates) after tonight.

Dems gained 4K in mail in the last update, Reps gained 2.5K in in-person. Say that happens again tonight, Clark firewall will jump another 1.5K. That's it for in person though.

Then we have Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night mail updates that could net Dems at least another 10-15K for their firewall. (plus anything that arrives after that)

I get that he's used to the end of "in person early voting" being the "end of the early vote" in general, but it's not this year, so I don't get why he's using that as a marker.

[bilaps]

Ralston keeps using the arbitrary day of today as the definitive "end of early vote" which continues to baffle me. Yes, that may have been the case in 2018, but we are still getting mail updates (and no more in person updates) after tonight.

Dems gained 4K in mail in the last update, Reps gained 2.5K in in-person. Say that happens again tonight, Clark firewall will jump another 1.5K. That's it for in person though.

Then we have Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night mail updates that could net Dems at least another 10-15K for their firewall. (plus anything that arrives after that)

I get that he's used to the end of "in person early voting" being the "end of the early vote" in general, but it's not this year, so I don't get why he's using that as a marker.

It must be his well known republican bias. Also, what were batches during the weekend of mail ballots last weekend?

[Agafin]

Ralston keeps using the arbitrary day of today as the definitive "end of early vote" which continues to baffle me. Yes, that may have been the case in 2018, but we are still getting mail updates (and no more in person updates) after tonight.

Dems gained 4K in mail in the last update, Reps gained 2.5K in in-person. Say that happens again tonight, Clark firewall will jump another 1.5K. That's it for in person though.

Then we have Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night mail updates that could net Dems at least another 10-15K for their firewall. (plus anything that arrives after that)

I get that he's used to the end of "in person early voting" being the "end of the early vote" in general, but it's not this year, so I don't get why he's using that as a marker.

Probably because he assumes that any mail vote at this point is just cannibalizing ED votes. It's not like there are people who will vote by mail tomorrow but would not have voted if VBM ended today like it did in 2018.

Though I could see how that would be an uncharitable read from a dem POV. It could also be more optimistically assumed that VBM voters were a bit more sluggish this time around since they have more time to vote. Time will tell.

[Adam Griffin]

Ralston keeps using the arbitrary day of today as the definitive "end of early vote" which continues to baffle me. Yes, that may have been the case in 2018, but we are still getting mail updates (and no more in person updates) after tonight.

Dems gained 4K in mail in the last update, Reps gained 2.5K in in-person. Say that happens again tonight, Clark firewall will jump another 1.5K. That's it for in person though.

Then we have Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night mail updates that could net Dems at least another 10-15K for their firewall. (plus anything that arrives after that)

I get that he's used to the end of "in person early voting" being the "end of the early vote" in general, but it's not this year, so I don't get why he's using that as a marker.

As you've already mentioned, it's not even like mail voting ends on Election Day: any ballot postmarked by Election Day and received by CoB on Saturday, 11/12 will also be counted. In a universal mail balloting system, you'd think nobody prognosticating in NV ever met procrastinating young people and/or Latinos & Asians before!

[It’s so Joever]

Really strange mixed picture we're getting. Nevada really not looking good for Dems at all by this point and looking worse every day, but Pennsylvania and Michigan are the complete opposite. Even Ohio is looking strong, though it's still probably not enough to win. Mail ballots up to this point in all three states are far more D than both 2018 and 2020, and a little more D in Wisconsin as well.

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.


As a peculiar side note, apparently Iowa votes so far are like D+21? I can't help but think there must be some kind of error, because that just seems impossible to me. For comparison it was D+5 at the same point in 2018 and at D+9 at the same point in 2020.

It's not a mixed bag. Only in Nevada you could make conclusions on early vote, right?

And Florida.

Not really. Nevada is the best one to look at.

[2016]

Really strange mixed picture we're getting. Nevada really not looking good for Dems at all by this point and looking worse every day, but Pennsylvania and Michigan are the complete opposite. Even Ohio is looking strong, though it's still probably not enough to win. Mail ballots up to this point in all three states are far more D than both 2018 and 2020, and a little more D in Wisconsin as well.

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.


As a peculiar side note, apparently Iowa votes so far are like D+21? I can't help but think there must be some kind of error, because that just seems impossible to me. For comparison it was D+5 at the same point in 2018 and at D+9 at the same point in 2020.

It's not a mixed bag. Only in Nevada you could make conclusions on early vote, right?

And Florida.

Not really. Nevada is the best one to look at.

So maybe, just maybe Laxalt & Lombardo will stop this NV Statewide loss curse for Republicans. They haven't won a Statewide Race since 2014.

[It’s so Joever]

Really strange mixed picture we're getting. Nevada really not looking good for Dems at all by this point and looking worse every day, but Pennsylvania and Michigan are the complete opposite. Even Ohio is looking strong, though it's still probably not enough to win. Mail ballots up to this point in all three states are far more D than both 2018 and 2020, and a little more D in Wisconsin as well.

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.


As a peculiar side note, apparently Iowa votes so far are like D+21? I can't help but think there must be some kind of error, because that just seems impossible to me. For comparison it was D+5 at the same point in 2018 and at D+9 at the same point in 2020.

It's not a mixed bag. Only in Nevada you could make conclusions on early vote, right?

And Florida.

Not really. Nevada is the best one to look at.

So maybe, just maybe Laxalt & Lombardo will stop this NV Statewide loss curse for Republicans. They haven't won a Statewide Race since 2014.

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

[Minnesota Mike]

So maybe, just maybe Laxalt & Lombardo will stop this NV Statewide loss curse for Republicans. They haven't won a Statewide Race since 2014.

The current SOS is a Republican.

[Minnesota Mike]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

If you are 100% sure about any race you don't understand how probabilities work.

[It’s so Joever]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

If you are 100% sure about any race you don't understand how probabilities work.

Its Nevada. Not understanding probabilities is half the state’s economy.

[MT Treasurer]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

Big thank you to Steve Sisolak for mailing ballots to low-propensity Trumpists!

VOY A VOTAR

[2016]

So maybe, just maybe Laxalt & Lombardo will stop this NV Statewide loss curse for Republicans. They haven't won a Statewide Race since 2014.

The current SOS is a Republican.

Yes, but when was she elected. I doubt 2018.

[Skill and Chance]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

Big thank you to Steve Sisolak for mailing ballots to low-propensity Trumpists!

VOY A VOTAR

I think we're going to find that certain expansions of voting do help Republicans on net.  I still think that all mail-in helps Democrats, but we are probably at the point where longer in-person early voting helps Republicans in most places, and auto-registration likely helps them in places like Nevada or Appalachia.

[It’s so Joever]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

Big thank you to Steve Sisolak for mailing ballots to low-propensity Trumpists!

VOY A VOTAR

POR LOMBARDO!