Early Voting thread.

[pantsaregood]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

Looks like I might want to set some money aside for an emergency Arby's fund.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

I’d be ok with that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Foundations that could never break
Was moving forward a mistake?
Or is that me pretending?
What happened to my happy ending?

Today I woke up to a brand new me
I know I can't rewrite history
Yesterday is gone
And I'm ready for what tomorrow brings

The beat goes on
(Was moving forward a mistake?) The beat goes on
(Or is that me pretending?) Yesterday is gone
(What happened to my happy ending?) But the beat goes on

[Sestak]

I assume all of the Republicans who used Ralston’s previous bearishness on Ds as ironclad proof the situation on the ground was good for them will now turn around and claim that he’s a spurious media hack who should never be paid attention to in the first place.

[Nyvin]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

As long as dems keep 1 legislative chamber that's a perfectly fine result.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ralston agrees with me - very narrow CCM win. This was what I was predicting for months.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I assume all of the Republicans who used Ralston’s previous bearishness on Ds as ironclad proof the situation on the ground was good for them will now turn around and claim that he’s a spurious media hack who should never be paid attention to in the first place.

I’ve never quoted him so I will reserve the right to say it: the predictions and his analysis are hackish. He very clearly dislikes Laxalt and republicans at large, as seen in the analysis and the amount of times he says the words “election denier”.

Please note two things about my comment. I too am not a fan of the Trump-style voter fraud antics. I too think CCM has a decent chance of winning, though slightly under 50%. Neither of those change the fact that this guy’s anger is showing

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Younger. Voters. Aren't. Voting.

Unaffiliated voters in Nevada who have cast votes so far are 18% under 40. At this point in 2020, this number was 33%.

If you are a politician running for office in WA, shouldn’t you be aware of the fundamental pattern of ballot returns where young people vote at the last minute?

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1589456733877202944

Breakdown:
38.8% OTH
38.5% DEM
22.7% REP

Makes sense that "others" would be the largest segment: young people and first-timers who don't know what they're doing. 

[Adam Griffin]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Younger. Voters. Aren't. Voting.

Unaffiliated voters in Nevada who have cast votes so far are 18% under 40. At this point in 2020, this number was 33%.

If you are a politician running for office in WA, shouldn’t you be aware of the fundamental pattern of ballot returns where young people vote at the last minute?

The issue here - and it's a national one, barring a handful of random, mostly safe states - is that youth turnout has dropped compared to 2018 when measured to the same day/period in the EV cycle. This isn't a case of comparing total turnout from one year to EV turnout for this year (though I have no idea why some want to compare to 2020 based on age - age differentials are always massive between midterms and presidentials no matter what!).

With TS data and as it stands right now (T-2 days in both 2018 and 2022): under 50s comprised 29.3% of the vote in 2018. This year, it's 25.5%.

In their data (which as far as I know here is not modeled but fetched directly from the voter file), under-50s have consistently been 3-4 percentage points lower than 2018 at the same point throughout all of early voting. As an example, I made this map a week ago with their data showing the same thing.

And yes, youngs always comprise a larger share of the ED electorate, but that lack of understanding isn't relevant to these specific figures. Now, if there is a logical argument as to why a greater percentage of under-50s will choose to vote in-person in 2022 after voting early in 2018, then I'm all ears.

[Hope For A New Era]

Ralston's prediction is interesting. I want to believe in CCM, I really do, but I'm still a skeptic.

His NV-03 prediction is more confusing to me, though. I'm not totally sure what he's basing that on. Certainly it's possible that Lee could lose, but I struggle see how it happens outside of a "major red wave" scenario. Of course, he's the one "on the ground" there, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he's seeing something that I (and other non-Nevadans) aren't.

[NOVA Green]

Hate to cross-post, but have been tracking the OR-EVs on this other thread, not realizing we had a US EV thread.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=455393.msg8846757#msg8846757e

Here is a map I posted Yesterday after running the OR TO NOs from the 11/4/22 upload.

[Sbane]

Ralston's prediction is interesting. I want to believe in CCM, I really do, but I'm still a skeptic.

His NV-03 prediction is more confusing to me, though. I'm not totally sure what he's basing that on. Certainly it's possible that Lee could lose, but I struggle see how it happens outside of a "major red wave" scenario. Of course, he's the one "on the ground" there, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he's seeing something that I (and other non-Nevadans) aren't.

A lot of the swing compared to 2020 towards the Republicans seems to be coming from Clark. Whereas Washoe may end up being the saving grace of the dems if they hold on in the statewide races. That doesn’t help Democrats in the house races and why it’s possible Lee could lose while the state sticks with CCM or Sisolak.

[Adam Griffin]

Updating this one week after my first:

Just in case it is not obvious, this is using TS-aggregated voter file age data to show the percentage-point change in the under-50 share of the electorate 2 days prior to Election Day (versus its share 2 days prior to Election Day 2018) by state. For example, if it was 29% T-2 days prior to 2018 and is 26% T-2 days in 2022, it's shaded "-3".

Nationally, the figures were 29.3% at this point in 2018 & are 25.5% as of now ( -3.8 ).

Some states are likely skewed due to election law changes, introduction of new voting methods, etc - this is more to illustrate the larger picture.

[AnOdyssey]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I would have expected better analysis from Ralston than Laxalt is a sh**t candidate and Lombardo is somehow going to significantly outperform him.. despite the data saying the contrary.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I would have expected better analysis from Ralston than Laxalt is a sh**t candidate and Lombardo is somehow going to outperform him.. despite the data saying the contrary.

What data says that? Nevada is a relatively non-elastic state, particularly on the federal level. Meanwhile, Lombardo is running as a "common-sense conservative" who is appealing to voters on kitchen table issues. Most importantly, Gubernatorial races are much more elastic in general. For instance, the gap between margins in Nevada Senate races is less than 10% in my lifetime, while the Gubernatorial difference is literally close to 50%.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Dems have big leads in key states, but we don't know what election day is going to look like and we have nothing meaningful to compare this EV cycle to. Big pro for dems is that not much so far indicates a massive turnout collapse. Big con for dems is that young voters are down significantly in the EV, with the hope being that they will turn out on ED (but that remains to be seen).

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I would have expected better analysis from Ralston than Laxalt is a sh**t candidate and Lombardo is somehow going to outperform him.. despite the data saying the contrary.

What data says that? Nevada is a relatively non-elastic state, particularly on the federal level. Meanwhile, Lombardo is running as a "common-sense conservative" who is appealing to voters on kitchen table issues. Most importantly, Gubernatorial races are much more elastic in general. For instance, the gap between margins in Nevada Senate races is less than 10% in my lifetime, while the Gubernatorial difference is literally close to 50%.

Nearly every Nevada poll has suggested Laxalt is running even to Lombardo.

Including Emerson which has been fairly good in Nevada.

I mean I respect Ralston's opinion but his piece on the Senate just seems a complete hit piece on Laxalt's candidacy based on personal opinion, which I wouldn't have expected from him.

[Adam Griffin]

So I decided to look at 2022 (T-2 days) raw EV totals and compare that to 2018 (T-2 days) raw EV totals.

First, 13 states plus DC I've excluded - these are states that either do not have EV, have it now (but not in 2018), or that have (based on insane differences in raw totals) made major changes to add or reduce EV options since 2018.

Of the 37 states that remain, raw turnout is almost identical overall to 2018:

2018 T-2 EV: 36,349,634
2022 T-2 EV: 36,248,421
2022, % of 2018 - 99.72%

[Spectator]

I would have expected better analysis from Ralston than Laxalt is a sh**t candidate and Lombardo is somehow going to outperform him.. despite the data saying the contrary.

What data says that? Nevada is a relatively non-elastic state, particularly on the federal level. Meanwhile, Lombardo is running as a "common-sense conservative" who is appealing to voters on kitchen table issues. Most importantly, Gubernatorial races are much more elastic in general. For instance, the gap between margins in Nevada Senate races is less than 10% in my lifetime, while the Gubernatorial difference is literally close to 50%.

Nearly every Nevada poll has suggested Laxalt is running even to Lombardo.

Including Emerson which has been fairly good in Nevada.

I mean I respect Ralston's opinion but his piece on the Senate just seems a complete hit piece on Laxalt's candidacy based on personal opinion, which I wouldn't have expected from him.

Probably a bias in that Lombardo on paper is a much stronger candidate than Laxalt is. Lombardo has won (nonpartisan) elections in the biggest and bluesy county in the state twice, whereas Laxalt has never performed very well, even in his narrow 2014 win. He still lost Clark and Washoe in both races. I think if Laxalt wins on Tuesday, it will be despite losing Clark and Washoe yet again.

[bilaps]

Well, Ralston has done a good job informing us on what we need to look at. So, we know that how many votes still come by mail is crucial. At this point 8 or 9k lead in all NV for Dems isn't big. It will be bigger but it's going to be offset in my opinion by big Rep turnout on Election Day. And this "advantage" Dems now have is probably non-existent if you take that in this kind of year, indies are probably breaking GOP way and that should be especially correct for Election Day indie vote. So, if we see a big turnout tomorrow, GOP wins it. Unless we see some staggering mail numbers coming.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before there can be split voting in a lot of these states NV, AZ and GA every poll has come out showing R GOVs doing better than the R Senators Lombardo, Lake and Kemp can be elected and CCM and Kelly and Warnock can be reelected too

[Senator Incitatus]

Its always amazing to me how much they complain yet they can't get off Reddit or TikTok to be bothered to register or vote.

This is sampling error. Online conversation is disproportionately driven by people without jobs, especially the young, and within that subset, it’s driven by the most angry and vocal. Young activists of the Tracy Flick and Alex P. Keaton variety are also amplified by the powerful as the ultimate useful idiots.

Most young people find activism “cringe.” Most young people just aren’t interested.

[Senator Incitatus]

I would have expected better analysis from Ralston than Laxalt is a sh**t candidate and Lombardo is somehow going to significantly outperform him.. despite the data saying the contrary.

I wouldn’t; Ralston isn’t particularly intelligent, just diligent at working local networks with very little competition. Look to him for facts, not analysis.