Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

Washoe was still able to count ~3000 mail-in ballots in last nights update, so looks like Clark just didn't feel like doing an update.

Dems won the mail vote last night by around 300, so their lead in total Washoe early vote grows to about ~1,300.

D - 50,689
R - 49,391
O - 29,724

[Ferguson97]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

[South Dakota Democrat]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

My understanding is that Wisconsin looks pretty good for dems, but I haven't really dug into the data myself.

[wbrocks67]

As for the states that were completely mail in 2018, 2020, and now, CO, OR, WA.

CO looks like it will likely end up almost exactly at the final D/R margin of 2020 by the end (about D+3 by reg), and more D by reg than 2018.

OR is more R, Ds are about +8 right now, and they ended 2018 and 2020 about +12-13. To be expected.

WA, unsure - TargetEarly is modeling an even more D makeup than 2018 but I still find it hard to believe.

[Minnesota Mike]

OR update.

Dem- 430,234 (41.3%)
Rep- 344,035 (33.1%)
Other- 266,377 (25.6%)
Total- 1,040,646

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/G22-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

Turnout down from same point in 2018. Dems trailing their 9% voter registration edge but only by about a point, I think they will take it.

[kwabbit]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

NV is a 4/10 for Dems, GA is 6/10, FL is a 1/10. Black turnout wasn't robust in GA.

I don't think any other states are worth looking at. There's an equal and opposite reaction phenomenon in EV. People who vote early are mostly partisans who were going to vote anyway, so every Dem vote early is one less Dem vote on e-day. That was the case in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

NV is a 4/10 for Dems, GA is 6/10, FL is a 1/10. Black turnout wasn't robust in GA.

I don't think any other states are worth looking at. There's an equal and opposite reaction phenomenon in EV. People who vote early are mostly partisans who were going to vote anyway, so every Dem vote early is one less Dem vote on e-day. That was the case in 2020.

Black turnout seems fine in GA? Given that it appears that a surprising amount of Dems are waiting till Election Day, 29% of the vote share seems pretty good. Basically in the middle of the 2020 (27.7%) and 2021 (30.9%) which had higher early voting.

[kwabbit]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

NV is a 4/10 for Dems, GA is 6/10, FL is a 1/10. Black turnout wasn't robust in GA.

I don't think any other states are worth looking at. There's an equal and opposite reaction phenomenon in EV. People who vote early are mostly partisans who were going to vote anyway, so every Dem vote early is one less Dem vote on e-day. That was the case in 2020.

Black turnout seems fine in GA? Given that it appears that a surprising amount of Dems are waiting till Election Day, 29% of the vote share seems pretty good. Basically in the middle of the 2020 (27.7%) and 2021 (30.9%) which had higher early voting.

Yeah it was fine, but wasn't something like 2021, where it was clear that Dems were doing an excellent job at turning out Black voters. That's what I would call 'very good'. It wasn't a strong signal in either direction, that's why I said it was a 6/10. E-day should bring it down closer to 2020 levels as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

NV is a 4/10 for Dems, GA is 6/10, FL is a 1/10. Black turnout wasn't robust in GA.

I don't think any other states are worth looking at. There's an equal and opposite reaction phenomenon in EV. People who vote early are mostly partisans who were going to vote anyway, so every Dem vote early is one less Dem vote on e-day. That was the case in 2020.

Black turnout seems fine in GA? Given that it appears that a surprising amount of Dems are waiting till Election Day, 29% of the vote share seems pretty good. Basically in the middle of the 2020 (27.7%) and 2021 (30.9%) which had higher early voting.

There does seem to be a decline in the relative amount of Ds early voting.
It's also good for Ds that it's in the middle of 2020 and 2021 here...both were D wins.
I feel pretty good about GA at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only 42 M Early voting for those making R nut maps NV, PA, WI, OH, NC and UT are still in play AK, KS, OK, SD and OR GOV, AZ And GA Govs are still in play and they are expecting 130M votes so there is no Red wave yet, except in FL and TX

Obama skipped FL and endorsed Beasley and polls have been all over the place in OH Ryan was up 48/39 in Aug now they have Vance ahead 8 gimme a break it's gonna come down to wire

ESPECIALLY SD AND OK GOVS THEY WERE CLOSE LADT TIME

[wbrocks67]

OR update.

Dem- 430,234 (41.3%)
Rep- 344,035 (33.1%)
Other- 266,377 (25.6%)
Total- 1,040,646

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/G22-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

Turnout down from same point in 2018. Dems trailing their 9% voter registration edge but only by about a point, I think they will take it.

Yeah, final EV in OR in both 2018 and 2020 was about D+11-12, so D+8 right now is looking pretty good.

[Adam Griffin]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

NV is a 4/10 for Dems, GA is 6/10, FL is a 1/10. Black turnout wasn't robust in GA.

Again, this just is not true (unless your definition of 'robust' is "well above anything we've ever seen")!

Georgia

It seems like I remember that in past elections, 32% Black vote was sort of the needed threshold.  Does the current numbers indicate lower Black turnout... or is the White turnout down also (meaning is other higher than prior years)?  

...not sure if 32% was overall- or early voters.

First of all: we have to sort the difference between SoS black electoral share and actual black electoral share.

Secondly, to address your question before I go into more specifics: the real [white-minus-black EV margin] - relative to its share of the final electorate - is the smallest (i.e. in favor of Ds) in the history of regularly-scheduled general elections. Maybe for EV in 2008 or 2012 it was better with the W-B margin, but in those elections, it would have comprised more like 20-30% of the final electorate rather than the majority it does today.

Based on exit polls and/or general reporting of actual black electorate share post-2016, 30-32% is a good figure for D victory in Georgia (Biden won by 0.3 points with a true black electorate of 30.2%; Warnock and Ossoff won by an average of 1.6 points at 31.9% in the runoffs). However, in no election has the SoS figure been that high (31-32%). In fact, the SoS figure has never cracked 30% in final (EV+ED) SoS official counts ever! In terms of final total, 28.95% was the highest in recorded history (2018 GE) - slightly lower than the present black EV [SoS] share.

The SoS official "unknown/other" categories currently make up almost 10% of EVs: in every general election final tally since 2016, this figure has never been lower than 7.8%. These categories are generally reflective of newly-registered - which means they're generally reflective of under-30s as well. In a state like GA, the difference between the under-30s and the over-65s racially-speaking is pretty vast.

Long story short: the official SoS numbers I've been posting underestimate all racial/ethnic groups. For blacks specifically, add 3-4 points to their share; add at least 4 points to whites. Below are my outputs for customized formulas for each specific election since 2016 with regard to reassigning the "Other/Unknowns" (in the 'Adj Pct' column; the official SoS figures are in the column to the left, under 'Pct'): currently, the black EV share exceeds the best EV+ED performance in the history of Georgia (2021 runoffs) by nearly a percentage point.

Not to say that that will hold once ED votes come in (it won't, but I doubt real ED vote share will be less than 25-26% black), but it's difficult to see the true black share dropping much below 2018 levels in the worst-case scenario. True black share will almost certainly be in between 2018 and 2021 runoff levels (i.e. 31.x%).

[wbrocks67]

140 more for the Clark friewal

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589674020701900800

[kwabbit]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

NV is a 4/10 for Dems, GA is 6/10, FL is a 1/10. Black turnout wasn't robust in GA.

Again, this just is not true (unless your definition of 'robust' is "well above anything we've ever seen")!

Georgia

It seems like I remember that in past elections, 32% Black vote was sort of the needed threshold.  Does the current numbers indicate lower Black turnout... or is the White turnout down also (meaning is other higher than prior years)?  

...not sure if 32% was overall- or early voters.

First of all: we have to sort the difference between SoS black electoral share and actual black electoral share.

Secondly, to address your question before I go into more specifics: the real [white-minus-black EV margin] - relative to its share of the final electorate - is the smallest (i.e. in favor of Ds) in the history of regularly-scheduled general elections. Maybe for EV in 2008 or 2012 it was better with the W-B margin, but in those elections, it would have comprised more like 20-30% of the final electorate rather than the majority it does today.

Based on exit polls and/or general reporting of actual black electorate share post-2016, 30-32% is a good figure for D victory in Georgia (Biden won by 0.3 points with a true black electorate of 30.2%; Warnock and Ossoff won by an average of 1.6 points at 31.9% in the runoffs). However, in no election has the SoS figure been that high (31-32%). In fact, the SoS figure has never cracked 30% in final (EV+ED) SoS official counts ever! In terms of final total, 28.95% was the highest in recorded history (2018 GE) - slightly lower than the present black EV [SoS] share.

The SoS official "unknown/other" categories currently make up almost 10% of EVs: in every general election final tally since 2016, this figure has never been lower than 7.8%. These categories are generally reflective of newly-registered - which means they're generally reflective of under-30s as well. In a state like GA, the difference between the under-30s and the over-65s racially-speaking is pretty vast.

Long story short: the official SoS numbers I've been posting underestimate all racial/ethnic groups. For blacks specifically, add 3-4 points to their share; add at least 4 points to whites. Below are my outputs for customized formulas for each specific election since 2016 with regard to reassigning the "Other/Unknowns" (in the 'Adj Pct' column; the official SoS figures are in the column to the left, under 'Pct'): currently, the black EV share exceeds the best EV+ED performance in the history of Georgia (2021 runoffs) by nearly a percentage point.

Not to say that that will hold once ED votes come in (it won't, but I doubt real ED vote share will be less than 25-26% black), but it's difficult to see the true black share dropping much below 2018 levels in the worst-case scenario. True black share will almost certainly be in between 2018 and 2021 runoff levels (i.e. 31.x%).

That was my definition of robust haha. Maybe I should've chosen a different word, but Dems had narrow victories at 2021 levels and it should be below that, which is why it's a 6/10 for me. Slight positive for Dems overall, buoyed by a good final few days. ED is the question mark.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map and NC and W1, UT and OH are still up for grabs the OK poll showing Stitt ahead now confirms it's a 303 map CCM, Fetterman, Kelly aren't losing on Eday and GA is going to runoff and Johnson isn't ahead by 5 if Evers is tied in the Gov poll

[Adam Griffin]

TargetSmart's modeled EV partisanship margin comparing T-1 day in 2022 to T-1 day in 2018 (i.e. its model swing).

LOL.

[It’s so Joever]

TargetSmart's modeled EV partisanship margin comparing T-1 day in 2022 to T-1 day in 2018 (i.e. its model swing).

LOL.

Interesting how nearly all the R favored ones actually have registration data…

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589752520301109248

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're gonna win WI for sure and PA and GA fir sure, look at OJ, KS, and SD those are battlegrounds SD Gov , OK GOV

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Final Minnesota numbers are in.

Total: 586,883 votes. In 2018 the total early votes were 638,581. Before you read too far into that consider that a lot of the VBM only precincts I mentioned before from pre-redistricting have been dissolved or merged with others into precincts with an in-person option.

Here's the final county breakdown:

Cook County   54.88%
Marshall County   54.79%
Grant County   48.91%
Lake of the Woods County   46.83%
Red Lake County   44.97%
Big Stone County   44.34%
Kittson County   42.05%
Traverse County   40.95%
Norman County   40.23%
Mahnomen County   37.98%
Aitkin County   37.62%
Stevens County   33.10%
Koochiching County   32.13%
Watonwan County   32.03%
Cass County   31.49%
Wilkin County   31.44%
Lac qui Parle County   31.28%
Pipestone County   30.25%
Murray County   29.17%
Rock County   28.85%
Itasca County   27.97%
Swift County   25.74%
Roseau County   25.72%
Polk County   25.53%
Pope County   25.12%
Nobles County   24.42%
Chippewa County   23.35%
Jackson County   23.07%
Yellow Medicine County   22.64%
Blue Earth County   22.01%
Sibley County   21.35%
Hennepin County   21.33%
Le Sueur County   20.96%
Brown County   20.87%
Lyon County   20.74%
Washington County   20.40%
Nicollet County   20.08%
Dakota County   18.79%
Meeker County   18.68%
Hubbard County   18.14%
Ramsey County   18.06%
Carver County   18.03%
Carlton County   17.93%
-------STATEWIDE 17.91%-------
Morrison County   17.63%
Crow Wing County   17.12%
Stearns County   17.06%
Beltrami County   17.01%
Mower County   16.97%
Douglas County   16.03%
Pennington County   15.94%
Martin County   15.47%
Scott County   15.27%
Fillmore County   15.18%
Wabasha County   15.17%
Lake County   15.17%
Freeborn County   15.12%
Clay County   15.04%
Olmsted County   14.98%
Becker County   14.92%
Anoka County   14.80%
Rice County   14.28%
Wright County   13.18%
Faribault County   12.72%
Pine County   12.38%
Kandiyohi County   12.28%
Steele County   12.18%
St. Louis County   12.17%
Goodhue County   11.58%
Otter Tail County   11.27%
Chisago County   10.69%
Winona County   10.55%
Isanti County   10.21%
Mille Lacs County   10.12%
Clearwater County   10.09%
Sherburne County   10.02%
Waseca County   9.89%
McLeod County   9.85%
Benton County   9.05%
Redwood County   9.02%
Kanabec County   8.50%
Wadena County   8.07%
Dodge County   7.97%
Cottonwood County   7.97%
Houston County   7.29%
Lincoln County   7.29%
Todd County   7.26%
Renville County   6.31%

As for the final "model", that comes out to about:

D 36.72%
R 32.23%
I 31.06%

In raw vote totals:

D 214,082
R 187,911
I 181,093

D+26,171 being the final numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

Interesting how nearly all the R favored ones actually have registration data…

Even though I think their model is bogus and inflated: not sure what you're suggesting. I'm counting 9 states where their model via the D-R margin favors Republicans relative to 2018, compared to 17 states where it favors Democrats. A little over one-in-three of these states favoring Republicans in their model is certainly not "nearly all".

[wbrocks67]

For all the hub-ub about CA-26, it's still D+16 in the early vote....

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How are things looking in Michigan? I heard some people worrying about the turnout in Detroit.

[philly09]

How are things looking in Michigan? I heard some people worrying about the turnout in Detroit.

https://twitter.com/DNBethLeBlanc/status/1589799477463814145

[Splash]

How are things looking in Michigan? I heard some people worrying about the turnout in Detroit.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1589797942407618561