Early Voting thread.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously Republicans weren’t going lead in the early vote unless you expected them to win by 15+ points, so I’m not sure what’s causing the confusion right now. I’m also not sure who exactly expected CCM to be "doomed going into election day" based on the early vote — even I expect Laxalt to win by absolutely crushing it on election day and not by leading in the early vote. People here realize that you can count the number of states in which Trump won the early vote in 2020 on one hand, right?

The bottom line is that there is no way of knowing what the actual Democratic raw vote advantage (Cortez Masto over Laxalt, Sisolak over Lombardo, etc.) in early vote is given that no one in this thread has an answer to the following questions:

1) How are independents breaking?
2) How many defections are there on the Democratic side?

Cortez Masto and Sisolak leading by 40k over Republicans in the early vote doesn’t mean much if they’re losing independents by 20k — this still means they’re finished on election day.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Don't disagree with much here. Pretty much the only certain thing we have right now is that this race is close, and polling strongly suggests the winner will prevail by a margin of less than two points. Reasonable people can disagree on who is likelier to win between the two.

[UncleSam]

Obviously Republicans weren’t going lead in the early vote unless you expected them to win by 15+ points, so I’m not sure what’s causing the confusion right now. I’m also not sure who exactly expected CCM to be "doomed going into election day" based on the early vote — even I expect Laxalt to win by absolutely crushing it on election day and not by leading in the early vote. People here realize that you can count the number of states in which Trump won the early vote in 2020 on one hand, right?

The bottom line is that there is no way of knowing what the actual Democratic raw vote advantage (Cortez Masto over Laxalt, Sisolak over Lombardo, etc.) in early vote is given that no one in this thread has an answer to the following questions:

1) How are independents breaking?
2) How many defections are there on the Democratic side?

Cortez Masto and Sisolak leading by 40k over Republicans in the early vote doesn’t mean much if they’re losing independents by 20k — this still means they’re finished on election day.

This is mostly right, but you're missing one thing - Dems aren't ahead by 40k over Rs in the early vote. They're ahead by ~9k at most - Ralston said that Dems had a ~500 vote advantage by EOD Friday (when the EV centers closed). This means that the mail counted over the weekend and Monday represents the entire Democratic early voting advantage.

I think Dems will probably need at least one or two more big days like today to pull up to where they have been in recent cycles. Definitely possible with Monday's drop potentially being two days' worth of mail coming in, so we will see. Plus there is always the potential for a lot of late mail ballots to arrive between election night and Friday.

[Adam Griffin]

Obviously Republicans weren’t going lead in the early vote unless you expected them to win by 15+ points, so I’m not sure what’s causing the confusion right now. I’m also not sure who exactly expected CCM to be "doomed going into election day" based on the early vote — even I expect Laxalt to win by absolutely crushing it on election day and not by leading in the early vote. People here realize that you can count the number of states in which Trump won the early vote in 2020 on one hand, right?

The bottom line is that there is no way of knowing what the actual Democratic raw vote advantage (Cortez Masto over Laxalt, Sisolak over Lombardo, etc.) in early vote is given that no one in this thread has an answer to the following questions:

1) How are independents breaking?
2) How many defections are there on the Democratic side?

Cortez Masto and Sisolak leading by 40k over Republicans in the early vote doesn’t mean much if they’re losing independents by 20k — this still means they’re finished on election day.

This is mostly right, but you're missing one thing - Dems aren't ahead by 40k over Rs in the early vote. They're ahead by ~9k at most - Ralston said that Dems had a ~500 vote advantage by EOD Friday (when the EV centers closed). This means that the mail counted over the weekend and Monday represents the entire Democratic early voting advantage.

I think Dems will probably need at least one or two more big days like today to pull up to where they have been in recent cycles. Definitely possible with Monday's drop potentially being two days' worth of mail coming in, so we will see. Plus there is always the potential for a lot of late mail ballots to arrive between election night and Friday.

Pretty sure his 40k figure references the simple partisan surplus of Ds over Rs (perhaps just in Clark, or statewide; "the firewall"; that's generally what Ralston et al always use when referring to Nevada EV), and not an assessment of true candidate preference/margin.

[wbrocks67]

And again, we don't really know how Indies are breaking. Based on the last few days, it seems like the younger voters who are more likely identified as "Other" are increasing their vote share. So Indies may be a wash between younger voters and typical Independents who may break more for Laxalt.

[bilaps]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

[wbrocks67]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1589049947873497089

[bilaps]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Well, thank God, election is around the corner so we'll see who got it wrong.

[RI]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Younger. Voters. Aren't. Voting.

Unaffiliated voters in Nevada who have cast votes so far are 18% under 40. At this point in 2020, this number was 33%.

[wbrocks67]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Younger. Voters. Aren't. Voting.

Unaffiliated voters in Nevada who have cast votes so far are 18% under 40. At this point in 2020, this number was 33%.

At this point in 2020, there were over 1M votes vs way less than that now. Not an apples to apples comparison at all. Also someone from NV can correct me if I'm wrong, but the AVR having people designated as "Other" as default may have started post-Nov 2020 election. But I'm not exactly sure of that.

Who know is if young voters will really come out; but we've gotten tons of evidence that shows most of the young ones that *are* coming out are waiting til Election Day, like they did pre-COVID.

[wbrocks67]

A bright spot for Dems continues to be New Mexico - they're approaching nearly 50% of their total 2020 turnout and it's still nearly D+17 by reg.

[Duke of York]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Younger. Voters. Aren't. Voting.

Unaffiliated voters in Nevada who have cast votes so far are 18% under 40. At this point in 2020, this number was 33%.

Its always amazing to me how much they complain yet they can't get off Reddit or TikTok to be bothered to register or vote.

[wbrocks67]

I'm gonna need the Washington experts to come in for this- TargetEarly is still showing Dems "modeled" a strong lead right now.

2 days to election “modeled”
2018: 1.64M (54.2% D, 35.5% R)
2020: 3.14M (54.5% D, 31.9% R)
2022: 1.53M (56.9% D, 30.1% R)

About the same turnout as 2018 at this point, but D+26 compared to D+19 in 2018 at this time? That just seems way too good to be true.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Younger. Voters. Aren't. Voting.

Unaffiliated voters in Nevada who have cast votes so far are 18% under 40. At this point in 2020, this number was 33%.

Aren't early voters traditionally older usually though? 2020 was an exception due to Covid, no reason to expect those patterns to continue. Not that that isn't a rather worrying sign, although I'd be more interested in seeing the total numbers of all parties than just unaffiliated.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589445647333064704

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589445647333064704

The fact he needs scotch and is turning off Twitter DEFINITELY tells us which way he thinks this is going…and I trust him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589445647333064704

The fact he needs scotch and is turning off Twitter DEFINITELY tells us which way he thinks this is going…and I trust him.

Watch him say they’re all too close to call.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589445647333064704

The fact he needs scotch and is turning off Twitter DEFINITELY tells us which way he thinks this is going…and I trust him.

He’s a big Bills fan — their loss today was scotch-worthy.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Are we getting NV early vote today?

[Minnesota Mike]

Are we getting NV early vote today?

No mail, no in person voting. If we get anything it probably won't be much.

[Roll Roons]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

[Zache]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

Really surprised he thinks CCM wins.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1589456733877202944

[Roll Roons]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

Really surprised he thinks CCM wins.

So am I.