Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Progressive Pessimist]

As I've said many times before, I think it's fair to extrapolate how this became a referendum on Palin, even with the unique electoral system. As such I think it fits into the theme of this year's elections when it comes to the candidates being nominated.

Other stuff like Biden, Dobbs, and the economy are probably mostly irrelevant though.

[Gracile]

Not worth reading much if anything into special elections, but I do think Republicans losing Alaska for good is going to happen sooner rather than later. In my view, Blue Alaska is probably more likely than Blue Texas by the end of the decade.

I think Alaska is one of the states where the abortion issue coming into the forefront of national politics could have a pretty significant impact on its politics, given its heavily pro-choice population (and I say this as someone who thinks the effects of the Dobbs decision are somewhat overstated).

[Crumpets]

Looks like we have our Scott Brown/Doug Jones surprise underdog statwide special election win for this election cycle.

[GALeftist]

Absolutely insane. HUGE congrats to Peltola. Let's go!!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Extrapolating this swing compared to the 2020 result suggests we are looking at something like a D+15 national environment.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Looks like we have our Scott Brown/Doug Jones surprise underdog statwide special election win for this election cycle.

Brown signaled a wave for Republicans, Jones for Democrats, so Peltola obviously a sign of a big wave for Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not worth reading much if anything into special elections, but I do think Republicans losing Alaska for good is going to happen sooner rather than later. In my view, Blue Alaska is probably more likely than Blue Texas by the end of the decade.

I think Alaska is one of the states where the abortion issue coming into the forefront of national politics could have a pretty significant impact on its politics, given its heavily pro-choice population (and I say this as someone who thinks the effects of the Dobbs decision are somewhat overstated).

Actually I was thinking it may be a big factor there because Alaska isn't somewhere where you can just take a trip to a neighboring state.

Currently legal abortion in Alaska is protected by its own state level Roe v. Wade equivalent ruling but the current Alaska Supreme Court is more conservative than the one that issued it. Getting an abortion ban passed to challenge it might be difficult due to how it's state legislature works and Democrats punching above their weight, but the fact is if it did happen Alaskan women would be in a much bigger pickle than ones in any continental state.

[It’s so Joever]

Imagine telling Atlas two weeks ago that NY-19 would vote to the right of Alaska.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looks like we have our Scott Brown/Doug Jones surprise underdog statwide special election win for this election cycle.

You would think Republicans would have had one already.

TX-34 and Virginia last year, maybe? I don't know if they really count though. Close to when those elections were held it looked pretty likely that both Republicans would win.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Imagine telling Atlas two weeks ago that NY-19 would vote to the right of Alaska.

Or that, for even what will be a fleeting few months, TX-34 will be represented by a Republican and AK-at-large by a Democrat. 

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1565131292169084928

[Crumpets]

I believe there is now only one Republican representing a district bordering the Pacific Ocean, and she just lost her primary a few weeks ago.

EDIT: Put another way, no representative on the entire Pacific Coast opposed impeaching Trump.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Don Young first started in this seat on March 23rd 1973, about 2 months after Roe was decided on January 22nd 1973. Now, about 2 months after Roe was overturned, a Democrat will be in it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Extrapolating this swing compared to the 2020 result suggests we are looking at something like a D+15 national environment.

I mean, the Republican nominee (effectively) went from the Dean of the House, who’d represented Alaska for over half the time it’s been a state, to a nationwide joke.

[Mexican Wolf]

So is there or will there be a breakdown of the second round votes by state house district?

[wbrocks67]

As I've said many times before, I think it's fair to extrapolate how this became a referendum on Palin, even with the unique electoral system. As such I think it fits into the theme of this year's elections when it comes to the candidates being nominated.

Other stuff like Biden, Dobbs, and the economy are probably mostly irrelevant though.

I disagree. Peltola getting 40%+ in the first round likely shouldn't have even been possible in a red environment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Extrapolating this swing compared to the 2020 result suggests we are looking at something like a D+15 national environment.

I mean, the Republican nominee (effectively) went from the Dean of the House, who’d represented Alaska for over half the time it’s been a state, to a nationwide joke.

And it would have remained a nationwide joke if Palin succeeded him.

As I've said many times before, I think it's fair to extrapolate how this became a referendum on Palin, even with the unique electoral system. As such I think it fits into the theme of this year's elections when it comes to the candidates being nominated.

Other stuff like Biden, Dobbs, and the economy are probably mostly irrelevant though.

I disagree. Peltola getting 40%+ in the first round likely shouldn't have even been possible in a red environment.

Maybe, but I think it's evident now how much Alaska hates their former Governor and how the electoral system allowed for them to express that. It might not have been a fluke, but it still kind of feels like it. I won't deny it as a rousing victory though.

We'll see how it goes in November.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Regardless on why she lost, this should also excite Democrats and motivate them more!

[Not Me, Us]

Unbelievable. I'm honestly speechless. I don't expect us to hold this seat in November, but wow.

[MT Treasurer]

As I've said many times before, I think it's fair to extrapolate how this became a referendum on Palin, even with the unique electoral system. As such I think it fits into the theme of this year's elections when it comes to the candidates being nominated.

Other stuff like Biden, Dobbs, and the economy are probably mostly irrelevant though.

I disagree. Peltola getting 40%+ in the first round likely shouldn't have even been possible in a red environment.

Mark Begich only lost by two points in what many consider a "red wave" year, and that was with November turnout. Alaska isn’t nearly as Republican as many here make it out to be, and it’s had one of the sharpest and most consistent Democratic trends in the country since 2000.

It’s still an impressive win for Democrats, though (and for the record, I think it’s unwise to write Peltola off in November even if Republicans do well nationally).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Sarah can't see congress from here.

[S019]

Sarah can't see congress from here.

But Mary Peltola will soon be able to see it from her house.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Regardless on why she lost, this should also excite Democrats and motivate them more!

There is absolutely no reason Dems should be thinking negatively after this result. This seat was never supposed to flip, not even for three months and especially not during a BIDEN MIDTERM!!!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The last time a Democrat represented Alaska in the House, Joe Biden wasn’t in the senate.

[Holmes]

Happy birthday, Rep-elect Peltola.