Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Xing]

Of course this result alone doesn’t necessarily mean things won’t be better for Republicans in November, though it’s hard to argue that this isn’t a very strong result for Democrats, and when you have multiple data points, they begin to form a pattern. Republicans have another two months, and the economy could emerge again as a key issue that would pull many lackluster Republican candidates across the finish line. The point now is that the data is pointing to this being less certain than it seemed in May or June.

The economy has just been getting better lately...

There really is no reason to believe these terrible MAGA candidates -- down in the polls, losing actual races, Democrats actaully pulling off upsets in them and/or heavily outperforming their baseline ever since Dobbs -- will have "the economy" sweep in to magically save them. Especially when their economic agenda is so unpopular too!

As I said before, the GOP f--ked around, now they're about to find out. This race could be a 1948 redux but a midterm, where the GOP again gets way too cocky and goes way overboard, alienating the majority of the country as a result, leading to a win for the Democrats that defies pundit expectations.

Better, yes, but gas prices are still not exactly low. And if there’s a news cycle in which a recession is predicted to be “imminent”, things could turn on a dime. Things look a lot better for Democrats than they did two months ago, but the last thing they should be doing is getting cocky.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Of course this result alone doesn’t necessarily mean things won’t be better for Republicans in November, though it’s hard to argue that this isn’t a very strong result for Democrats, and when you have multiple data points, they begin to form a pattern. Republicans have another two months, and the economy could emerge again as a key issue that would pull many lackluster Republican candidates across the finish line. The point now is that the data is pointing to this being less certain than it seemed in May or June.

The economy has just been getting better lately...

There really is no reason to believe these terrible MAGA candidates -- down in the polls, losing actual races, Democrats actaully pulling off upsets in them and/or heavily outperforming their baseline ever since Dobbs -- will have "the economy" sweep in to magically save them. Especially when their economic agenda is so unpopular too!

As I said before, the GOP f--ked around, now they're about to find out. This race could be a 1948 redux but a midterm, where the GOP again gets way too cocky and goes way overboard, alienating the majority of the country as a result, leading to a win for the Democrats that defies pundit expectations.

Better, yes, but gas prices are still not exactly low. And if there’s a news cycle in which a recession is predicted to be “imminent”, things could turn on a dime. Things look a lot better for Democrats than they did two months ago, but the last thing they should be doing is getting cocky.

All of your predictions rely on things like 'when [blank] gets their ads in the air', not even stopping to think that these Republican candidates have no money.

[Pericles]

Inflation is higher than in 2020, people are worse off if we just look at the economy. If this recovery helps though, it could mean that people don't think about it with the 'are you better off than you were four years ago?' cliche but instead just look at if the economy is better than a few months ago.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Inflation is higher than in 2020, people are worse off if we just look at the economy. If this recovery helps though, it could mean that people don't think about it with the 'are you better off than you were four years ago?' cliche but instead just look at if the economy is better than a few months ago.

There have been political science studies that have shown this is the case.

[Oryxslayer]

Inflation is higher than in 2020, people are worse off if we just look at the economy. If this recovery helps though, it could mean that people don't think about it with the 'are you better off than you were four years ago?' cliche but instead just look at if the economy is better than a few months ago.

There have been political science studies that have shown this is the case.

Quite a lot of these actually. They tend to show that when talking about anything, proximity to the election is what matters. Voters have short memories. When thinking about your own abstract economic position, statistically people are most likely to look at the extremely recent situation and then compare to something else comparatively recent like the start to the year. This however is overridden by major 'generation defining economic events' which is such a nebulous term that I can only say that it is something very good or very bad that your brain won't easily forget. The 2020 Pandemic environment was one such event for many people - and some will therefore compare with that - but for others that was barely a blip in their economic lives.

[Pres Mike]

I did some really rough math

Palin might have won without ranked choice voting. But it still would have been the closest election in recent memory for Alaska. Like 51-49 in favor of Palin. That should happen in a “red wave” year.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

WOW. I am utterly lost for words.
 I think democrats should be motivated by this result. I would personally play defense for the most part just because our majority is so small and we should not get overconfident but we can definitely play some offense too.
 I agree with MT Treasurer and some others that Peltola is NOT doomed in November, and that's regardless of what the environment ends up being. AK is a weird state that has strange electoral results some times. I mean, Mark Begich nearly won in 2014 for goodness sakes.
 And seriously, anyone arguing candidate quality doesn't matter needs to wake up. Not only is Palin weak, but I'd argue Peltola is very strong. Doesn't bode well for J.D. Vance imo

[GeorgiaModerate]

I did some really rough math

Palin might have won without ranked choice voting. But it still would have been the closest election in recent memory for Alaska. Like 51-49 in favor of Palin. That should happen in a “red wave” year.

I think you mean it shouldn't happen?

[Farmlands]

The only reason I take caution in these races, so to speak, is because the democrats overperformed the partisan lean of districts much more than now, in 2018. And like then, I definitely don't think that republicans will sit out in November at the rates they seem to in the preceding special elections. A red ripple is my prediction.

[Xing]

Of course this result alone doesn’t necessarily mean things won’t be better for Republicans in November, though it’s hard to argue that this isn’t a very strong result for Democrats, and when you have multiple data points, they begin to form a pattern. Republicans have another two months, and the economy could emerge again as a key issue that would pull many lackluster Republican candidates across the finish line. The point now is that the data is pointing to this being less certain than it seemed in May or June.

The economy has just been getting better lately...

There really is no reason to believe these terrible MAGA candidates -- down in the polls, losing actual races, Democrats actaully pulling off upsets in them and/or heavily outperforming their baseline ever since Dobbs -- will have "the economy" sweep in to magically save them. Especially when their economic agenda is so unpopular too!

As I said before, the GOP f--ked around, now they're about to find out. This race could be a 1948 redux but a midterm, where the GOP again gets way too cocky and goes way overboard, alienating the majority of the country as a result, leading to a win for the Democrats that defies pundit expectations.

Better, yes, but gas prices are still not exactly low. And if there’s a news cycle in which a recession is predicted to be “imminent”, things could turn on a dime. Things look a lot better for Democrats than they did two months ago, but the last thing they should be doing is getting cocky.

All of your predictions rely on things like 'when [blank] gets their ads in the air', not even stopping to think that these Republican candidates have no money.

Money isn’t everything, though, and my only point is that a badly timed negative news cycle can change a lot. Having lived through 2014, 2016, and 2020 has made me skeptical of the Democrats’ ability to overperform the fundamentals in more than a few select races.

[SaintStan86]

Considering how close Nick Begich III came to winning this (and also had the support of the official Alaska GOP as well as the state chapters of Americans for Prosperity and FreedomWorks, various Young Republican groups, the CURRENT Mayor of Wasilla and even reportedly Palin's ex-in laws), I wouldn't be shocked if voters gave him a second look after this result. For what it's worth, Sarah Palin is now effectively what many of her detractors say she is: nothing more than a question to a Jeopardy! answer. Will be curious if Sargent Shriver would have been a better candidate than Gerry Studds in 1972 had he chosen to run there in the heart of Kennedy Country (as opposed to what he obviously accepted in running for Vice President alongside George McGovern)...

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if this result draws comparisons to what happened in HI-01 in the 2010 cycle, when a Republican named Charles Djou won a special election, only to lose to Colleen Hanabusa in what turned out to be a blockbuster 2010 midterm for the GOP. Then again, many thought Gary Peters would have been left for dead that year, and he eventually got reelected, then again in 2012, and then won a Senate term in 2014 and again by an even closer margin in 2020 in Michigan.

[Holmes]

Begich didn't come close to winning at all. He was eliminated and didn't even reach the final round. Palin came close to winning. You can say you think Begich would have done better in the final round than Palin, but it's a lie to say he almost won. He was a distant third.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Considering how close Nick Begich III came to winning this (and also had the support of the official Alaska GOP as well as the state chapters of Americans for Prosperity and FreedomWorks, various Young Republican groups, the CURRENT Mayor of Wasilla and even reportedly Palin's ex-in laws), I wouldn't be shocked if voters gave him a second look after this result. For what it's worth, Sarah Palin is now effectively what many of her detractors say she is: nothing more than a question to a Jeopardy! answer. Will be curious if Sargent Shriver would have been a better candidate than Gerry Studds in 1972 had he chosen to run there in the heart of Kennedy Country (as opposed to what he obviously accepted in running for Vice President alongside George McGovern)...

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if this result draws comparisons to what happened in HI-01 in the 2010 cycle, when a Republican named Charles Djou won a special election, only to lose to Colleen Hanabusa in what turned out to be a blockbuster 2010 midterm for the GOP. Then again, many thought Gary Peters would have been left for dead that year, and he eventually got reelected, then again in 2012, and then won a Senate term in 2014 and again by an even closer margin in 2020 in Michigan.

It's still not a good sign. Just admit that potentially we might not be in an R+10 environment.

[wbrocks67]

Considering how close Nick Begich III came to winning this (and also had the support of the official Alaska GOP as well as the state chapters of Americans for Prosperity and FreedomWorks, various Young Republican groups, the CURRENT Mayor of Wasilla and even reportedly Palin's ex-in laws), I wouldn't be shocked if voters gave him a second look after this result. For what it's worth, Sarah Palin is now effectively what many of her detractors say she is: nothing more than a question to a Jeopardy! answer. Will be curious if Sargent Shriver would have been a better candidate than Gerry Studds in 1972 had he chosen to run there in the heart of Kennedy Country (as opposed to what he obviously accepted in running for Vice President alongside George McGovern)...

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if this result draws comparisons to what happened in HI-01 in the 2010 cycle, when a Republican named Charles Djou won a special election, only to lose to Colleen Hanabusa in what turned out to be a blockbuster 2010 midterm for the GOP. Then again, many thought Gary Peters would have been left for dead that year, and he eventually got reelected, then again in 2012, and then won a Senate term in 2014 and again by an even closer margin in 2020 in Michigan.

Now sis...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Inflation is higher than in 2020, people are worse off if we just look at the economy. If this recovery helps though, it could mean that people don't think about it with the 'are you better off than you were four years ago?' cliche but instead just look at if the economy is better than a few months ago.

Americans' short-term memories, even though it's something I often deride, may actually be working to Democrats' benefit this time, so long as economic factors continue in a positive direction.

[Pericles]

Inflation is higher than in 2020, people are worse off if we just look at the economy. If this recovery helps though, it could mean that people don't think about it with the 'are you better off than you were four years ago?' cliche but instead just look at if the economy is better than a few months ago.

Americans' short-term memories, even though it's something I often deride, may actually be working to Democrats' benefit this time, so long as economic factors continue in a positive direction.

Along with their culture war fixation, while that mitigates the damage abortion is the vote winner this cycle.

[new_patomic]

Inflation is higher than in 2020, people are worse off if we just look at the economy. If this recovery helps though, it could mean that people don't think about it with the 'are you better off than you were four years ago?' cliche but instead just look at if the economy is better than a few months ago.

Americans' short-term memories, even though it's something I often deride, may actually be working to Democrats' benefit this time, so long as economic factors continue in a positive direction.

Gas at $3.50 feels way cheaper when it's coming down from costing $5

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1565808800585908224

[wbrocks67]

I'm confused as to how there still has been no new votes counted in NY-19 or NY-23.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a note with these 45/53 Approvals if we were that endangered OH, NC and FL SEN won't be tied we may lose the H but 53 Senators are our Goal because FL, OH, MT, and WVA are in play in 24 and our H candidates will be in a stronger position to win back the H in 24 with Biden on the ballot

On top of that we won NY 19 and AK why are we winning in red states with Biden low Approvals because Trump have low Approvals too especially in swing states he has a 60% Unfav in Cali and NEWSOM has a 45% Approval in Cali and he will win again 60/40 margin it's Trump's Approvals too that's driving down R brand in swing states

I have said this many times but users always go back to the same Approvals , we lost the H seats in a Neutral Environment last time so Rs winning a narrow majority is expected when Biden isn't on the ballot just like in 2012 we did better in the H than 2010 due to Obama and Biden being on ballot

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm confused as to how there still has been no new votes counted in NY-19 or NY-23.

Are there any to count?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm confused as to how there still has been no new votes counted in NY-19 or NY-23.

Are there any to count?

Since it's New York election officials, someone probably accidentally swapped out the ballots and the toilet paper.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1568014352514711552

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1568014352514711552

It’s nice to see this data.  But the conclusion doesn’t really follow from it.  If Sarah Palin had finished in 3rd place, she wouldn’t have had 58k votes to distribute to the other candidates.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1568014352514711552

It’s nice to see this data.  But the conclusion doesn’t really follow from it.  If Sarah Palin had finished in 3rd place, she wouldn’t have had 58k votes to distribute to the other candidates.

Even then SaintStan's claim that Begich almost won is laughable.


Winning by 8,000 in Alaska is a terrible result as a republican.