Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 04:30:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 92 93 94 95 96 [97] 98 99 100 101 102 ... 112
Author Topic: Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)  (Read 136517 times)
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,109


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2400 on: September 09, 2022, 01:13:40 AM »
Huh, that's interesting, guess Begich would have underperformed Trump by around 5 points. This fits into the post-Dobbs special election pattern. Since these are actual election results, they should be a meaningful indicator. It is just hard to tell whether Democrats are supposed to be doing better in special elections than the general election so confirms the polling of a roughly neutral environment where any outcome is possible, or if Democrats are actually doing better nationwide than the polls show. And of course, it could be they are not that indicative or that the national environment will again change by November.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,054
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2401 on: September 09, 2022, 07:49:41 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on September 08, 2022, 09:05:00 PM
Quote from: RI on September 08, 2022, 08:29:39 PM


It’s nice to see this data.  But the conclusion doesn’t really follow from it.  If Sarah Palin had finished in 3rd place, she wouldn’t have had 58k votes to distribute to the other candidates.

It basically confirms that if a certain number of voters who voted Palin 1st and Begich 2nd, then Begich would have won in way Palin could not because Palin did not have enough 2nd place choices from Begich voters. It may be at this point that neither can win given how much they dislike each other.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2402 on: September 13, 2022, 07:27:52 PM »
Peltola is now a member of Congress!
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,229


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2403 on: September 13, 2022, 07:32:45 PM »
Maybe one day we'll finally get the final results for the NY-19 and NY-23 specials.. lol
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,756
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2404 on: September 13, 2022, 07:35:34 PM »
Oh cute, Murkowski was there.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,716


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2405 on: September 13, 2022, 08:37:36 PM »

She also seemed genuinely happy. I’m 100% sure she ranked her above Palin.
Logged
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,939
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2406 on: September 13, 2022, 08:45:58 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on September 13, 2022, 08:37:36 PM

She also seemed genuinely happy. I’m 100% sure she ranked her above Palin.

Saw what you will about Murkowski but she has been a big advocate for native Alaskan women
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2407 on: September 13, 2022, 09:12:10 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on September 13, 2022, 08:37:36 PM

She also seemed genuinely happy. I’m 100% sure she ranked her above Palin.

The Venn diagram between final round Murkowski voters and final round Peltola voters in November will probably be pretty close to a circle (at least if Palin comes in second again).
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2408 on: October 15, 2022, 09:36:33 PM »


Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,757


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2409 on: October 15, 2022, 09:46:06 PM »
Quote from: I Like That; It's a Good Thing on October 15, 2022, 09:36:33 PM




This is incredibly fascinating and quite surprising honestly - should probably be its own thread for discussion.
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,316
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2410 on: October 15, 2022, 10:51:31 PM »
Is that good or bad for Ds- on the one hand DOBBS BUMP might have been overrated but on the other hand Republicans might have shifted too far right or something?
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,971


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2411 on: October 15, 2022, 10:53:00 PM »
Do we unsticky this now?
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,316
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2412 on: October 15, 2022, 10:59:02 PM »

Won’t we have specials next year? Congress is basically a retirement home for sex offenders after all, so there will probably be at least a couple deaths/resignations.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,919
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2413 on: October 16, 2022, 12:14:10 AM »
Quote from: In Liz We Truss on October 15, 2022, 10:59:02 PM

Won’t we have specials next year? Congress is basically a retirement home for sex offenders after all, so there will probably be at least a couple deaths/resignations.

This Congress certainly had an unusual number of deaths, more than any other Congress since at least the 110th United States Congress (2007-2009).
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,316
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2414 on: October 16, 2022, 04:45:37 AM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on October 16, 2022, 12:14:10 AM
Quote from: In Liz We Truss on October 15, 2022, 10:59:02 PM

Won’t we have specials next year? Congress is basically a retirement home for sex offenders after all, so there will probably be at least a couple deaths/resignations.

This Congress certainly had an unusual number of deaths, more than any other Congress since at least the 110th United States Congress (2007-2009).
Well many of the older ones were primaried out in 2010 or retired.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,229


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2415 on: October 17, 2022, 02:17:14 PM »
FINALLY final results for NY-19 and NY-23

NY-19 - Ryan +3.8
Ryan (D) 67,996 - 51.9%
Molinaro (R) 64,159 - 48.1%

NY-23 - Sempolinski +5.4
Sempolinski (R) 39,128 - 52.7%
Della Pia (D) 35,075 - 47.3%
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,229


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2416 on: October 17, 2022, 02:48:07 PM »
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,116
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2417 on: October 17, 2022, 03:49:44 PM »

What, they finally finished counting all the votes?
Logged
MRS DONNA SHALALA
cuddlebuns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
South Africa


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2418 on: October 17, 2022, 04:00:41 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 17, 2022, 02:17:14 PM
FINALLY final results for NY-19 and NY-23

NY-19 - Ryan +3.8
Ryan (D) 67,996 - 51.9%
Molinaro (R) 64,159 - 48.1%

NY-23 - Sempolinski +5.4
Sempolinski (R) 39,128 - 52.7%
Della Pia (D) 35,075 - 47.3%

So with everything tallied, Ryan's win goes from a 2.8% margin to 3.8%. With the last final ballots, Ryan gained ~1,900 votes and Molinaro ~1,100.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,697


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2419 on: December 12, 2022, 12:41:07 PM »

Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,650
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2420 on: December 12, 2022, 01:48:04 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2022, 12:41:07 PM



Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,116
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2421 on: December 12, 2022, 02:16:43 PM »

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,516


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2422 on: December 12, 2022, 03:25:07 PM »

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,398
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2423 on: December 12, 2022, 03:26:18 PM »
Quote from: jamestroll on December 12, 2022, 03:25:07 PM

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.


Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,516


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2424 on: December 12, 2022, 03:28:55 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on December 12, 2022, 03:26:18 PM
Quote from: jamestroll on December 12, 2022, 03:25:07 PM

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.


Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 92 93 94 95 96 [97] 98 99 100 101 102 ... 112  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.064 seconds with 11 queries.