Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[It’s so Joever]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

[It’s so Joever]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

Kaptur is the other seat the GOP can crack. Her district runs from Toledo to Cleveland This seat is actually from Cleveland to Akron but will have to retract to Cleveland. Its also an AA VRA seat and still very Safe D and impossible to crack.



Instead expect it to look something like this as in the green district.A fairly logical and compact COI that splits only one town but is also a natural Democratic pack.The purple district is the rest of Cuyahoga and it actually voted for Trump! It isn't an overpacking of AA's either. It just puts all of the white liberals who live in the same towns as the AA's +Lakewood together.

You are right, I mixed this one up with Kaptur’s snake.

[It’s so Joever]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

LOL what? You don't think there will be a single dem seat in the cleveland area? Are you insane?

I mixed it up with the Toledo district.

[It’s so Joever]

Is Kenedy county destined to always vote for the losing candidate lmao

Based as f**k.

[It’s so Joever]

R+8.

[It’s so Joever]

I did another snap map scan of the entire district today, and it’s nothing like Kansas so far. Turnout is much much lower (as anyone expected) with only three voting snaps in total. Two were nonspecific in partisan preference (one was an older white man from rural Winona County, the other was a younger white woman from Rochester) and one was an explicitly pro-GOP voting post (in this case in Rochester actually)
Granted it’s early, but anecdotal evidence is not on the side of Ettinger.

[It’s so Joever]

Just looking at turnout differences in the primaries for MN-01 RIP Ettinger lmao

[It’s so Joever]

Just looking at turnout differences in the primaries for MN-01 RIP Ettinger lmao

He's obviously probably not going to win, but there's zero in from Olmsted, Blue Earth or Winona counties so this isn't a representative sample at all to put it mildly.

Its literally Nicollet LMAO

[It’s so Joever]

All of Rock County now reporting supposedly and it’s a 3 point swing LEFT compared to 2020 President result.

Just ignore the other county lol

[It’s so Joever]

No overperformance in Steele!

[It’s so Joever]

Where are you finding out which precincts have reported?

[It’s so Joever]

What's going on in Dodge?

[It’s so Joever]

Even I think it's too early without more data.

[It’s so Joever]

Okay NOW its over.

[It’s so Joever]

LMAO HUGE OVERPERFORMANCE FOR FINDSTADT IN WATONWAN

[It’s so Joever]

LMAO HUGE OVERPERFORMANCE FOR FINDSTADT IN WATONWAN

You're coming off as an unhinged stan for a lame Republican in a special election that's thousands of miles away. What's wrong?

idk tbh

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s be honest we all are just waiting for Olmsted to get their s**t together.

[It’s so Joever]

This is def a mistake but even if numbers flipped still an overperformance for Ettinger.

[It’s so Joever]

COME ON OLMSTED GET MOVING

[It’s so Joever]

Think Molinaro wins by a lot and people here freak out.

I mean, a very good Molinaro win here would be pretty shocking and reason for some concern. This is a Biden/Delgado district that trended left from 2016, so it would be odd for Dems to outperform so well in the NE-01 and MN-01 districts but not here (or not at least perform somewhat decently)

Watch it happen lol.

[It’s so Joever]

Think Molinaro wins by a lot and people here freak out.

Make sure you all have SL on ignore for tonight.

I thought the election was on the 23rd.

[It’s so Joever]

From yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1559882241743982592

I will always be fascinated at how Alaska is such a reverse of the political geography in nearly every other state.

Isnt Hawaii also that?

[It’s so Joever]

Too little too late.

[It’s so Joever]

ZERO voting related snaps in the district. Contrast that to even MN-01 when there were a few or KS where there were lots. If this anecdotal data is anything to go by…turnout may be pretty low today

[It’s so Joever]

Finally found a single vote related snap in Columbia County, couldn’t get much other information unfortunately, it was a male who posted it but that’s the most I can find.