Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

That’s actually about where I am with my predictions (I have HOD at 52D-48R).  I assume you also have Dems picking up SD-07 in January?

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

That’s actually about where I am with my predictions (I have HOD at 52D-48R).  I assume you also have Dems picking up SD-07 in January?

Yes, and I am waiting for the January race to make more firm predictions.

I have a hard time deciding between 50, 51, and 52 Dem.. 53 D and 49 D are possible but very unlikely.

The HOD may be disproportionally awful for the GOP if 2025, 2027, or 2029 or Dem waves.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

That’s actually about where I am with my predictions (I have HOD at 52D-48R).  I assume you also have Dems picking up SD-07 in January?

Yes, and I am waiting for the January race to make more firm predictions.

I have a hard time deciding between 50, 51, and 52 Dem.. 53 D and 49 D are possible but very unlikely.

The HOD may be disproportionally awful for the GOP if 2025, 2027, or 2029 or Dem waves.

The State Senate is at least Lean D.  The scenario where it would flip would involve a Dem collapse in Hampton Roads/Richmond.  They are likely losing a seat in the mountains that was formerly gerrymandered to pick up college towns, but there is a new double digit Biden district in the Richmond suburbs for them. 

The HOD comes down to several outer NOVA Biden->Youngkin districts that were either narrowly won by Spanberger or narrowly lost by Wexton this year.  Getting to 50/50 looks fairly easy, but Dems need at least one downballot Republican NOVA seat for control.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

That’s actually about where I am with my predictions (I have HOD at 52D-48R).  I assume you also have Dems picking up SD-07 in January?

Yes, and I am waiting for the January race to make more firm predictions.

I have a hard time deciding between 50, 51, and 52 Dem.. 53 D and 49 D are possible but very unlikely.

The HOD may be disproportionally awful for the GOP if 2025, 2027, or 2029 or Dem waves.

The State Senate is at least Lean D.  The scenario where it would flip would involve a Dem collapse in Hampton Roads/Richmond.  They are likely losing a seat in the mountains that was formerly gerrymandered to pick up college towns, but there is a new double digit Biden district in the Richmond suburbs for them. 

The HOD comes down to several outer NOVA Biden->Youngkin districts that were either narrowly won by Spanberger or narrowly lost by Wexton this year.  Getting to 50/50 looks fairly easy, but Dems need at least one downballot Republican NOVA seat for control.

Yea.. despite Luria's loss (which was to be expected to be honest).. I do not see a dem collapse occurring in Hampton Roads or Richmond area.

Democrats are holding up in those two regions better than you would have expected considering everything that has happened since the 2020 election. Every jurisdiction in Hampton Roads swung Dem in 2022 from 2021 even.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432

Glad to see Youngkin didn't play games with this.

Credit to Youngkin, I assumed he would drag this out.

He will not.

He is a genuinely good person/governor. I just hope he stays Virginia focused and not run for president.

I also do not think the 2023 elections will go well for his party either. Though not disastrous.

Oh god I'd totally forgotten there were 2023 elections.  It never ends. 

My early estimates are

HOD: 51 D to 49 R

Senate: 22 D 18 R

The Senate could be a tad worse for the GOP and the House could be a power sharing agreement.

I went through race by race.

That’s actually about where I am with my predictions (I have HOD at 52D-48R).  I assume you also have Dems picking up SD-07 in January?

Yes, and I am waiting for the January race to make more firm predictions.

I have a hard time deciding between 50, 51, and 52 Dem.. 53 D and 49 D are possible but very unlikely.

The HOD may be disproportionally awful for the GOP if 2025, 2027, or 2029 or Dem waves.

The State Senate is at least Lean D.  The scenario where it would flip would involve a Dem collapse in Hampton Roads/Richmond.  They are likely losing a seat in the mountains that was formerly gerrymandered to pick up college towns, but there is a new double digit Biden district in the Richmond suburbs for them. 

The HOD comes down to several outer NOVA Biden->Youngkin districts that were either narrowly won by Spanberger or narrowly lost by Wexton this year.  Getting to 50/50 looks fairly easy, but Dems need at least one downballot Republican NOVA seat for control.

Yea.. despite Luria's loss (which was to be expected to be honest).. I do not see a dem collapse occurring in Hampton Roads or Richmond area.

Democrats are holding up in those two regions better than you would have expected considering everything that has happened since the 2020 election. Every jurisdiction in Hampton Roads swung Dem in 2022 from 2021 even.

This. And Kiggans has a very tough fight ahead of her in 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems prolly would've won the VA state House on the new maps. Rmbr in 2021 the old maps were used which were a previous R gerrymander and rmbr too population shifts almost exclusively favored Ds in VA.

In the State Sen, the path is very clear. Dems need 21 seats for a majority, and there are 20 seats that are over Biden + 17 (and all went McAuliffe) and should be pretty safe. From there they need one of the Biden + 13 Loudon seat that narrowly went Youngkin, the Biden + 9 northern Newport News seat (also Youngkin), or the 42% black Biden + 7 rural seat (that went to Youngkin), or a possible suprise somewhere else. Rs basically have to sweep the table to win the State Sen.

The State House is far more complex given the insane number of seats (100). Tbh, there aren't many competative outer-Nova seats as many here seem to imply; the dropoff between NOVA and rurals is pretty sharp. According to DRA, McAuliffe won 48 seats, most of which seem pretty secure, so again, it seems like a case where Rs have to run the table to win.

[beaver2.0]

Joe Morrissey set for an announcement at 11:30 this morning.

https://www.progress-index.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/12/13/va-democrats-plan-firehouse-primary-for-special-election-in-4th/69723068007/

[beaver2.0]

McClellan with endorsements

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1602679737331191814?s=46&t=LOwr8jYj6ptvWJjUwIMV5g

[lfromnj]

Morrisey will be interesting. He has his base of the urban Richmond and Petersburg African Americans. The other 3 groups in the primary should be , rural African Americans, suburban African Americans in Henrico and Chesterfield, and White Democrats in Richmond proper who should punch above their weight in a low turnout firehouse primary.
Morrisey is incredibly toxic among these white Democrats and should receive basically 0% even in a 1v1 primary. His strength is definetely overall with poor African Americans so it will be tough for him to pick up votes in the lower middle class to middle class Henrico/Chesterfield suburbs while he should be a decent fit if he campaigns well in the rural counties.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems prolly would've won the VA state House on the new maps. Rmbr in 2021 the old maps were used which were a previous R gerrymander and rmbr too population shifts almost exclusively favored Ds in VA.

In the State Sen, the path is very clear. Dems need 21 seats for a majority, and there are 20 seats that are over Biden + 17 (and all went McAuliffe) and should be pretty safe. From there they need one of the Biden + 13 Loudon seat that narrowly went Youngkin, the Biden + 9 northern Newport News seat (also Youngkin), or the 42% black Biden + 7 rural seat (that went to Youngkin), or a possible suprise somewhere else. Rs basically have to sweep the table to win the State Sen.

The State House is far more complex given the insane number of seats (100). Tbh, there aren't many competative outer-Nova seats as many here seem to imply; the dropoff between NOVA and rurals is pretty sharp. According to DRA, McAuliffe won 48 seats, most of which seem pretty secure, so again, it seems like a case where Rs have to run the table to win.

Giving Dems every HOD seat that was Biden + 11 or better gets them 52 seats.  Doing that in the state senate gets them 21.  If you give them the Biden + 8 SD-24 in the Newport News area where Monty Mason is almost certainly running for re-election, they have 22 there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems prolly would've won the VA state House on the new maps. Rmbr in 2021 the old maps were used which were a previous R gerrymander and rmbr too population shifts almost exclusively favored Ds in VA.

In the State Sen, the path is very clear. Dems need 21 seats for a majority, and there are 20 seats that are over Biden + 17 (and all went McAuliffe) and should be pretty safe. From there they need one of the Biden + 13 Loudon seat that narrowly went Youngkin, the Biden + 9 northern Newport News seat (also Youngkin), or the 42% black Biden + 7 rural seat (that went to Youngkin), or a possible suprise somewhere else. Rs basically have to sweep the table to win the State Sen.

The State House is far more complex given the insane number of seats (100). Tbh, there aren't many competative outer-Nova seats as many here seem to imply; the dropoff between NOVA and rurals is pretty sharp. According to DRA, McAuliffe won 48 seats, most of which seem pretty secure, so again, it seems like a case where Rs have to run the table to win.

Giving Dems every HOD seat that was Biden + 11 or better gets them 52 seats.  Doing that in the state senate gets them 21.  If you give them the Biden + 8 SD-24 in the Newport News area where Monty Mason is almost certainly running for re-election, they have 22 there.

Yeah pretty sure HoD flips back unless 2023 is a disaster, and Senate would prolly take even more. I wonder if Dems will ever reach a supermajority this decade? Iirc, Biden either won just under or just over a supermajority of seats in both chambers.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It would be funny if the only major White candidate wins because of Black votes while all the White liberals vote for McClellan.

[Ferguson97]

Morrissey is a groomer freak and I pray he doesn't win the nomination

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morrissey is a groomer freak and I pray he doesn't win the nomination

People with the surname Morrissey seem to always be weirdos for some reason.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/HenryGraff/status/1603418182584238085?s=20&t=GD2y4VOm_fH...

Probably locks it up for McClellan, since their districts kinda overlapped and she got Kaine's support yesterday.

[ottermax]

https://twitter.com/HenryGraff/status/1603418182584238085?s=20&t=GD2y4VOm_fH...

Probably locks it up for McClellan, since their districts kinda overlapped and she got Kaine's support yesterday.

I'm glad Democrats are uniting behind one African-American mainstream candidate to hopefully block Morrissey.

Does anyone familiar with the area know how strong Morrissey is on the ground? I just learned about the firehouse primary yesterday and I was shocked to discover his story. What is his voter base? How is he even a contender given his past problems, conservative views, and race?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/HenryGraff/status/1603418182584238085?s=20&t=GD2y4VOm_fH...

Probably locks it up for McClellan, since their districts kinda overlapped and she got Kaine's support yesterday.

I'm glad Democrats are uniting behind one African-American mainstream candidate to hopefully block Morrissey.

Does anyone familiar with the area know how strong Morrissey is on the ground? I just learned about the firehouse primary yesterday and I was shocked to discover his story. What is his voter base? How is he even a contender given his past problems, conservative views, and race?

He has deep and successful constituent outreach with a very specific section of his African American district. I'm not sure if that extends in any capacity to anyone he has never represented.

[LabourJersey]

It sounds like McClellan has this, but will be interesting to see what results we get.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1605427368117637120

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1605427368117637120

Is...this legal?

[wbrocks67]

It sounds like turnout was actually pretty incredible for VA Dems yesterday?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/HenryGraff/status/1603418182584238085?s=20&t=GD2y4VOm_fH...

Probably locks it up for McClellan, since their districts kinda overlapped and she got Kaine's support yesterday.

I'm glad Democrats are uniting behind one African-American mainstream candidate to hopefully block Morrissey.

Does anyone familiar with the area know how strong Morrissey is on the ground? I just learned about the firehouse primary yesterday and I was shocked to discover his story. What is his voter base? How is he even a contender given his past problems, conservative views, and race?

He has deep and successful constituent outreach with a very specific section of his African American district. I'm not sure if that extends in any capacity to anyone he has never represented.

He actually did best in Petersburg in 2019 despite being from Richmond. However this special being held so early prevents his ground game.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1605427368117637120

Is...this legal?

It's not *illegal*, but it should result in loss of the tax exemption. Of course, the IRS has been asleep at  the wheel on politicking by churches for ages now.

[ottermax]

Any idea when we can expect results from the primary?

[Sestak]

Any idea when we can expect results from the primary?

There are apparently only five people counting, so it may be some hours.