Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1605427368117637120

Is...this legal?

It's not *illegal*, but it should result in loss of the tax exemption. Of course, the IRS has been asleep at  the wheel on politicking by churches for ages now.

Thankfully Joe Biden got tons more IRS agents. Perhaps something this blatant gets punished. I'm not getting my hopes up of course.

[beaver2.0]

Finally, they have more than five counters.  I'm not sure how it ever made sense to have just five people counting.

https://twitter.com/DeanMirshahi/status/1605675627327234049

[lfromnj]

Any idea when we can expect results from the primary?

https://twitter.com/HenryGraff/status/1605664365776101386

Its the week before Christmas along with the fact its a firehouse and not state funded.

[Oryxslayer]

Finally, they have more than five counters.  I'm not sure how it ever made sense to have just five people counting.

In addition to what was said above, they literally had to throw this together in a matter of weeks, and also turnout was much, much, higher than expected for only a handful of locations.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/vademocrats/status/1605853709727981568

[Holmes]

The fact that Morrissey even got 13.5% is concerning.

[Gracile]

This result is not surprising to me given that McClellan locked up virtually all of the establishment support in a state like Virginia which has a lot of establishment-oriented voters (and a firehouse primary only makes this more pronounced).

[Coldstream]

Genuinely cannot believe Joseph Morrissey is still around, one of the first scandals I followed when I got into American politics was his resignation then un-resignation in 2014/15. Obviously his constituents see something in him the rest of us don’t.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I find it really sad how not even 30k people in a district of over 800k people voted.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I find it really sad how not even 30k people in a district of over 800k people voted.

My understanding is that this was all scheduled and organized in basically a week.

[Oryxslayer]

I find it really sad how not even 30k people in a district of over 800k people voted.

My understanding is that this was all scheduled and organized in basically a week.

Yes. And the real embarrassing thing is that it's more voter turnout than the regular 2016 primary, not concurrent with the presidential one course,  which put McEachin there in the first place.

[jamestroll]

This result is not surprising to me given that McClellan locked up virtually all of the establishment support in a state like Virginia which has a lot of establishment-oriented voters (and a firehouse primary only makes this more pronounced).

I like McClellan and believe she will make a great addition to congress.

Statewide she would be weaker. Likely would defeat a hard conservative, but would lose to youngkin types. Mainstream conservative would depend on the climate.

But she can pretty much have that richmond/ southside VA  area seat for life.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This result is not surprising to me given that McClellan locked up virtually all of the establishment support in a state like Virginia which has a lot of establishment-oriented voters (and a firehouse primary only makes this more pronounced).

I like McClellan and believe she will make a great addition to congress.

Statewide she would be weaker. Likely would defeat a hard conservative, but would lose to youngkin types. Mainstream conservative would depend on the climate.

But she can pretty much have that richmond/ southside VA  area seat for life.

If VA-04 is hypothetically condensed to just metro Richmond one day (and hence less black), could she become vulnerable to a primary from a "white liberal" type? She seems pretty inoffensive so my guess would be no.

[NewYorkExpress]

VA-4 would have been Safe D even with Morrisey as the Democratic nominee. The only question is whether Democrats (with support from moderates/establishment conservatives) agree to seat him (I'm not sure they would, on the grounds that he'd be an embarrassment to the House).

[jamestroll]

This result is not surprising to me given that McClellan locked up virtually all of the establishment support in a state like Virginia which has a lot of establishment-oriented voters (and a firehouse primary only makes this more pronounced).

I like McClellan and believe she will make a great addition to congress.

Statewide she would be weaker. Likely would defeat a hard conservative, but would lose to youngkin types. Mainstream conservative would depend on the climate.

But she can pretty much have that richmond/ southside VA  area seat for life.

If VA-04 is hypothetically condensed to just metro Richmond one day (and hence less black), could she become vulnerable to a primary from a "white liberal" type? She seems pretty inoffensive so my guess would be no.

Highly unlikely.. and the commission would probably always want a black plurality or majority district in Virginia even though it is not necessary for a district to be majority black for a black candidate to win.

She is about as inoffensive and establishment as you can get for that area. She is safe.

I am just glad she wasn't the gubernatorial nominee in 2021... she would have lost by 5 to 6 points. Her comments on schools and covid would have wrote themselves in ads. lol. Though, the HOD results would have probably been the same.. higher black turn out may have saved a few seats.

But that is all the past.

Richmond/henrico/chesterfield do not seem like the type of jurisdictions who would prefer a white liberal over a black female really.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Virginia-04: Easy D win

House will remain 222-213 R/D

[Senator Incitatus]

Seems obvious that the result in Virginia is secure, but what is the benchmark percentage? Something less than McEachin's 63.8%?

[wbrocks67]

Very curious to see how the special tonight does compared to 2020, 2021, and 2022.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As has been mentioned elsewhere, David Cicilline in RI-01 is resigning on June 1, so there will be a special election at some point.

[wbrocks67]

Do we know how McAuliffe did in the new VA-04?

2022: McEachin +30.0
2021: ?
2020: Biden +35.7

[Gracile]

Seems obvious that the result in Virginia is secure, but what is the benchmark percentage? Something less than McEachin's 63.8%?

I can see the Democratic vote share being slightly lower than that because this is a seat where Democrats are highly dependent on black turnout - which may be much lower in a special (compare this to seats where Democrats overperformed last year, like MN-01 and NY-19 that are demographically dissimilar and overwhelmingly white). McAuliffe also won this seat by slightly less than that (61-37).

McClellan's victory is still assured, but I don't think the circumstances are there for a considerable overperformance like some of last year's specials.

[Minnesota Mike]

VA-04 Results links

NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/21/us/elections/results-virginia-us-house-district-4-special.html

VA Dept of Elections:

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2023%20February%20Special/Site/Congress.html

[TML]

The AP has just called VA-04 for McClellan:

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1628188817214545920

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McClellan is doing far better than McEachin across the district. Almost 70% for McClellan.

[Minnesota Mike]

McClellan is doing far better than McEachin across the district. Almost 70% for McClellan.

Margin will probably shrink a little, ED vs Early votes etc, but looks like it will end up around the 22 margin.