🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Lechasseur]

Also, at this point I believe the SPD will win the election, which is crazy to think about given just a couple of months ago that looked impossible.

That being said, I think that's only possible because the CDU and the Greens nominated such poor Chancellor candidates.

I think had either the Greens nominated Habeck instead of Baerbock, or had the Union nominated Soder or Merz instead of Laschet (that being said, I think AKK would have done even worse than Laschet), the SPD would probably not be in a position to climb back from the hole they were in.

What the SPD has here is they're the one party that nominated a decent Chancellor candidate.

At anyrate, good luck to Scholz and the SPD.

Wait, you're rooting for the SPD now? I thought you supported Les Republicains in France?

No, I'm rooting for CDU. I just wished SPD luck in the sense I think it's now or never for them.

But no I'm rooting for CDU. SPD would be my second choice though.

And no in France I'm no longer an LR supporter. I'm now independant and I'll probably back Macron as the lesser evil this time round. LR just seem like RN for rich people at this point.

[CumbrianLefty]

It appears we finally have CROSSOVER!

(where's that "Its Happening" gif)

[Mike88]

It appears we finally have CROSSOVER!

(where's that "Its Happening" gif)

Yep, Forsa poll:

Vote share %:

23% SPD (+2)
22% CDU/CSU (-1)
18% Grüne (-1)
12% FDP (nc)
10% AfD (nc)
  6% Linke (nc)
  9% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 23 August 2021. Polled 2,504 voters.

[Sir Mohamed]

What? The Social Democrats are surging big league? And I thought the CDU would rule Germany forever. Is this just because Mr. Laschet is a horrible candidate?

[Mike88]

What? The Social Democrats are surging big league? And I thought the CDU would rule Germany forever. Is this just because Mr. Laschet is a horrible candidate?

Mainly yes and also because Scholz is seen as a competent Finance minister and the more likely "heir" of Merkel's policies in German's voters minds, according to polling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very funny that the first poll to show this would be a Forsa. Anyway, that's another poll with Die Linke only just about hovering about the threshold.

[DL]

Very funny that the first poll to show this would be a Forsa. Anyway, that's another poll with Die Linke only just about hovering about the threshold.

I thought the 5% threshold was unlikely to ever apply to Linke since there are some exceptions for parties that win direct mandates (which the Linke always does) and/or which hit the 5% threshold in the former DDR

[YL]

Very funny that the first poll to show this would be a Forsa. Anyway, that's another poll with Die Linke only just about hovering about the threshold.

I thought the 5% threshold was unlikely to ever apply to Linke since there are some exceptions for parties that win direct mandates (which the Linke always does) and/or which hit the 5% threshold in the former DDR

They would need to win three direct mandates to be exempted.  They currently have five, four in Berlin and one in Leipzig, and the four in Berlin were won fairly comfortably last time.

[President Johnson]

It appears we finally have CROSSOVER!

(where's that "Its Happening" gif)

Yep, Forsa poll:

Vote share %:

23% SPD (+2)
22% CDU/CSU (-1)
18% Grüne (-1)
12% FDP (nc)
10% AfD (nc)
  6% Linke (nc)
  9% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 23 August 2021. Polled 2,504 voters.

THANK YOU ARMIN, VERY COOL

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They would need to win three direct mandates to be exempted.  They currently have five, four in Berlin and one in Leipzig, and the four in Berlin were won fairly comfortably last time.

Yes. The issue is that if they really were to drop under 5% (which still doesn't look likely!) they will have lost a huge chunk of their support from 2017 and there's little chance that this would not also show up in direct vote preferences in those or any other set of constituencies. It would be, at best, dicey.

[Lechasseur]

It appears we finally have CROSSOVER!

(where's that "Its Happening" gif)

Yep, Forsa poll:

Vote share %:

23% SPD (+2)
22% CDU/CSU (-1)
18% Grüne (-1)
12% FDP (nc)
10% AfD (nc)
  6% Linke (nc)
  9% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 23 August 2021. Polled 2,504 voters.

THANK YOU ARMIN, VERY COOL

Lol

[Astatine]

They would need to win three direct mandates to be exempted.  They currently have five, four in Berlin and one in Leipzig, and the four in Berlin were won fairly comfortably last time.

Yes. The issue is that if they really were to drop under 5% (which still doesn't look likely!) they will have lost a huge chunk of their support from 2017 and there's little chance that this would not also show up in direct vote preferences in those or any other set of constituencies. It would be, at best, dicey.

If both CSU (5 % according to INSA) and Linke fall below 5 % but get saved by the three-district rule, this would be the first time in history that two parties below five percent (since creation of the federal threshold) still get seats (exempting SSW).

Btw, the Linke might still get troubles even if they got saved by their direct representatives. As far as I'm concerned, they wouldn't be allowed to form a parliamentary group with full rights ("Fraktion") but only a "Gruppe", which has less significance in the parliamentary process, especially when it comes to funding. Not 100% sure though.

[President Johnson]

They would need to win three direct mandates to be exempted.  They currently have five, four in Berlin and one in Leipzig, and the four in Berlin were won fairly comfortably last time.

Yes. The issue is that if they really were to drop under 5% (which still doesn't look likely!) they will have lost a huge chunk of their support from 2017 and there's little chance that this would not also show up in direct vote preferences in those or any other set of constituencies. It would be, at best, dicey.

If both CSU (5 % according to INSA) and Linke fall below 5 % but get saved by the three-district rule, this would be the first time in history that two parties below five percent (since creation of the federal threshold) still get seats (exempting SSW).

Btw, the Linke might still get troubles even if they got saved by their direct representatives. As far as I'm concerned, they wouldn't be allowed to form a parliamentary group with full rights ("Fraktion") but only a "Gruppe", which has less significance in the parliamentary process, especially when it comes to funding. Not 100% sure though.

This was actually the case in 2002, when the PDS (East German predecessor of Die Linke) won two or three districts while failing to get 5% of the national popular vote. Consequently, they did have these members without the status as a parliamentary faction. Not having the status as faction makes everything much more difficult in the Bundestag's daily business for said members.

[Lechasseur]

They would need to win three direct mandates to be exempted.  They currently have five, four in Berlin and one in Leipzig, and the four in Berlin were won fairly comfortably last time.

Yes. The issue is that if they really were to drop under 5% (which still doesn't look likely!) they will have lost a huge chunk of their support from 2017 and there's little chance that this would not also show up in direct vote preferences in those or any other set of constituencies. It would be, at best, dicey.

If both CSU (5 % according to INSA) and Linke fall below 5 % but get saved by the three-district rule, this would be the first time in history that two parties below five percent (since creation of the federal threshold) still get seats (exempting SSW).

Btw, the Linke might still get troubles even if they got saved by their direct representatives. As far as I'm concerned, they wouldn't be allowed to form a parliamentary group with full rights ("Fraktion") but only a "Gruppe", which has less significance in the parliamentary process, especially when it comes to funding. Not 100% sure though.

How is the CSU falling below 5%? Aren't they quite dominant in Bavaria?

And what happens if they fall below 5%, as I'd imagine they'd still have a lot of MPs regardless thanks to the directly elected constituencies?

[Astatine]

They would need to win three direct mandates to be exempted.  They currently have five, four in Berlin and one in Leipzig, and the four in Berlin were won fairly comfortably last time.

Yes. The issue is that if they really were to drop under 5% (which still doesn't look likely!) they will have lost a huge chunk of their support from 2017 and there's little chance that this would not also show up in direct vote preferences in those or any other set of constituencies. It would be, at best, dicey.

If both CSU (5 % according to INSA) and Linke fall below 5 % but get saved by the three-district rule, this would be the first time in history that two parties below five percent (since creation of the federal threshold) still get seats (exempting SSW).

Btw, the Linke might still get troubles even if they got saved by their direct representatives. As far as I'm concerned, they wouldn't be allowed to form a parliamentary group with full rights ("Fraktion") but only a "Gruppe", which has less significance in the parliamentary process, especially when it comes to funding. Not 100% sure though.

This was actually the case in 2002, when the PDS (East German predecessor of Die Linke) won two or three districts while failing to get 5% of the national popular vote. Consequently, they did have these members without the status as a parliamentary faction. Not having the status as faction makes everything much more difficult in the Bundestag's daily business for said members.

Yeah, the PDS won 2 seats only. Both Members of Bundestags were nominally independent. If a party gains 3 direct seats though, but less than 5 % of the vote, the resulting parliamentary group would still just be a "Gruppe" and not a "Fraktion". This is what the PDS representation in Parliament was from 1990 until 1998.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Prots are going red again! Party like it's 2002!

[parochial boy]

What's going on in Ravensburg that makes it a potential Green pickup there? The other ones in Baden-Württemberg are like Tübgingen and Freiburg, which make a lot more intuitive sense. But Ravensburg? there's like pig all there , no?

[President Johnson]

What's going on in Ravensburg that makes it a potential Green pickup there? The other ones in Baden-Württemberg are like Tübgingen and Freiburg, which make a lot more intuitive sense. But Ravensburg? there's like pig all there , no?

All of these including Ravensburg are university cities. Young academics tend to support the Greens.

[Alcibiades]

The Prots are going red again! Party like it's 2002!

Ah, beautiful to see my ancestral Lower Saxon heartland painted in deep red!

[Astatine]

The Prots are going red again! Party like it's 2002!

Ah, beautiful to see my ancestral Lower Saxon heartland painted in deep red!

If those results were to come true (I have my doubts about some districts where I feel incumbency and vote splitting are underrated, but we'll see whether I was wrong), SPD would sweep the districts 4 in states (Brandenburg, Bremen, Saarland, Hamburg).

In 2017, the SPD achieved that in Bremen only (same in 2013), while CDU/CSU managed to do it in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg (5 states), losing "full control" of 2 states (Saarland, Saxony) in comparison to 2013.

[Logical]

Can you even fit 778 members in the Reichstag chamber?

[Jackson Lee]

Radio Hamburg polled Germany & Hamburg.

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#hh

Here are the results:



SPD up more in Hamburg than in Germany vs. 2017.

Olaf Scholz effect (he was Hamburg Mayor once)?

[President Johnson]

The SPD should even get more than 28% in Hamburg. In his state election campaigns of 2011 and 2015, Scholz crushed his opponents at 48% and 45%.

Yeah, it looks like the race is pretty much tied between SPD and Union at this point. I hope we see the SPD to start polling ahead more frequently now, ideally outside the margin of error (2-3%).

[Astatine]

By the way, with the current district estimates several prominent CDU/CSU politicians are on verge of not making it into the Bundestag - CDU/CSU's horrible proportional vote result in combination with relatively strong district performances means that there will a bunch of overhang seats.

Armin Laschet declined to run in his home district but instead opted to only get on the NRW list - As CDU/CSU will still pick up a large chunk of districts with an abysmal proportional result, he might be shunned out of Bundestag. INSA also has mannequin Education Minister Anja Karliczek losing her district, albeit by a narrow margin.
 
Philipp Amthor, CDU "youth" hopeful in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, is losing his district according to INSA, and probably wouldn't get saved over the list.

In Saarland, it seems likely that at least one out of the three somewhat prominent CDU faces will not make it - AKK (Defense Minister, list #1, running in Saarbrücken), Peter Altmaier (Economy Minister, list #2, running in Saarlouis) or Nadine Schön (deputy parliamentary group leader, list #3, running in St. Wendel). If the SPD sweeps all four districts, all three could still get saved thanks to compensatory seats. But the CDU needs to win either all of their districts or none to get all three into the Bundestag.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Armin Laschet declined to run in his home district but instead opted to only get on the NRW list - As CDU/CSU will still pick up a large chunk of districts with an abysmal proportional result, he might be shunned out of Bundestag.

That would be hilarious.

Philipp Amthor, CDU "youth" hopeful in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, is losing his district according to INSA, and probably wouldn't get saved over the list.

One crook less in Berlin.

In Saarland, it seems likely that at least one out of the three somewhat prominent CDU faces will not make it - AKK (Defense Minister, list #1, running in Saarbrücken), Peter Altmaier (Economy Minister, list #2, running in Saarlouis) or Nadine Schön (deputy parliamentary group leader, list #3, running in St. Wendel).

Also: In 297 (Saarlouis), in a rematch of 2017, we have a battle of ministers: Altmaier vs. Maas. In 2017, Altmaier won this race by 6. Applying uniform swing, Maas would end up as the winner this time. Not quite as exciting as the Wahlkreis 61 (Potsdam), which is Scholz vs. Baerbock, but still an interesting fact. Also, this shows how overrepresented the small Saarland is in the cabinet.

Also interesting is 196 (Suhl – Schmalkalden-Meiningen – Hildburghausen – Sonneberg), which is currently held by the CDU (won by 11, AfD second in 2017). This is the district Maaßen runs in. Maaßen is not on the list but was considered to be a shoo-in in the next Bundestag because the Wahlkreis is usually safe for the CDU. This time, however, the SPD has a really good recruit who even led Maaßen in one poll. One of the more interesting races this year.