🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[CumbrianLefty]

So are we expected to believe some AfD voters have gone to the Greens?

There is this thing called "churn"......

But yeah, that a relatively small number might have done that isn't so outlandish shurely?

[CumbrianLefty]

Its hard to see what the SPD could do to slip even further into irrelevance, but they will probably manage it.

Some of us predicted this when they agreed to another GroKo.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its hard to see what the SPD could do to slip even further into irrelevance, but they will probably manage it.

Some of us predicted this when they agreed to another GroKo.

Yup, Nahles just resigned as Party and Parliamentary leader.

🦀*cue the crab rave* 🦀

I dont see the next Spd leader being some sort of corbyn-style "leave the coaltion" guy (like Comrade Kühnert), but this party (and this goverment) is definitely in free-fall. This feels alot like Austria in early 2017.

She hasn't resigned yet; she merely announced her purpose of resignation in the future.

Ah, so she is following the Theresa May playbook - I can see that ending well

[CumbrianLefty]

I feel that people tend to glaze over the fact that the Danish Social Democrats actually, you know, lost vote share this year. Despite the advantages of opposition, unpopular incumbent and the like.

I'm no big fan of the approach they took here, but tbf their share was down 0.2% or something?

(and they were actually up a seat)

[CumbrianLefty]

New Forsa national poll, released June 15: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

Greens: 27%
Union (CDU/CSU): 24%
AfD: 13%
SPD: 11% (LOL)
FDP: 9%
Left: 8%
Other: 8%

Greens are at 51% among students.

59% regret the downfall of the SPD (including 70% of Green supporters and 66% of CDU supporters), while 36% don't care.


Yeah, it seems as the party I'm still a member of is done.

I never thought a poll putting the SPD at 11% would have Die Linke at just 8%.

Maybe that is your one crumb of comfort?

[CumbrianLefty]

At present the SPD arguably has no real reason to exist.

It needs to rediscover one.

[CumbrianLefty]

Any chance the SPD, in their annoyance about vdL, try to end the GroKo?

[CumbrianLefty]

- The AfD is profitting from a climate of de-solidarization established over the last 15-20 years. Why show solidarity to outsiders if the welfare state shows much less solidarity towards you than in the past when push comes to shove?

Oh come on. The idea that Working class voters would be suddenly totally fine with mass immigration, if only they got higher welfare benefits, is naive at best and highly condescending at worst. I suggest you actually ask some working-class AFD voters. Ignoring the opposition to the cultural impact of immigration has led the left into the abyss.

I'm not saying the explanation you quoted is everything, but equally I don't think its nothing.

If people feel more economically and socially secure, they will be less racist.

It isn't outlandish to suggest that.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not sure if anybody or anything can save the SPD in its current form, but have an especially hard time believing another exponent of the "third way" is the answer.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting to see that the Greens have recovered quite a bit in the national polls, whereas the SPD is once again stuck in the mid-10s. Latest numbers by polling firm:

Infratest Dimap (01.10.)

SPD 15%
GRÜNE 21%
(CDU: 35%)

INSA (29.09.)

SPD 15.5%
GRÜNE 19%
(CDU: 35%)

Forsa (26.09.)

SPD 15%
GRÜNE 21%
(CDU: 35%)

Seems as though they have gotten a bump from their strong performance in North-Rhine-Westphalia recently. Green candidates also won a couple of high-profile mayor's races (runoff) last week:

Aachen (Germany's westernmost Grossstadt)

Sibylle Keuper (GRÜNE) 67.4%
Harald Baal (CDU) 32.6%

Bonn (Germany's former capital)

Katja Dörner (GRÜNE) 56.3%
Ashok Sridharan (CDU) 43.7%

Wuppertal

Prof. Dr. Uwe Schneidewind (Independent, supported by GRÜNE and CDU) 53.5%
Andreas Mucke (SPD) 46.5%

SPD showing no real signs of recovery from recent lows, unlike some centre-left parties in Europe.

[CumbrianLefty]

If the SPD could just get to around 20% again, things would be interesting indeed.

[CumbrianLefty]

If by chance the Greens edged out the CDU and were the largest party would the CDU be willing to be a junior partner in a Green led coalition with a Green chancellor?

Would they not learn the less of what happen to the SPD since 2005 to avoid accepting that ?

There is no automatism that the junior partner in a coalition loses like the SPD did. Grüne-SPD-FDP is the more probable outcome in such a scenario but I have no doubt that the CDU would also agree to Grüne-CDU if they had to. They simply love power too much.

They have quite possibly reached the point where they would find being out of power very difficult.

[CumbrianLefty]

SPD going back into coalition last time looks, if anything, an even worse choice now than it did then.

[CumbrianLefty]

It may be the first time FDP have polled level with the SPD, but pretty sure they have scored above 14% in the past - what is their highest ever figure?

[CumbrianLefty]

Die Linke are flirting somewhat with the 5% threshold now - some recent polls have them only 1% above it now. It would certainly be quite an astonishing result if they failed to enter the Bundestag, although I suppose some direct mandates could still save them.

Its certainly striking how little they seems to be benefiting from the SPD's woes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

[CumbrianLefty]

Any proper "left" is left in both cultural *and* economic terms.

I am deeply suspicious of any claims to the contrary.

[CumbrianLefty]

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.

The SPD's platform has moved considerably leftwards in recent years on economic issues. They are basically saying, "This is what we would like to do, but the Union is blocking us". Party leadership tries to make a distinction between the SPD's action in the grand coalition and the SPD's platform - the heart and soul of the party.

Though given how they are polling, maybe not totally successfully?

[CumbrianLefty]

Very interesting. I have seen larger swings in polling this year than what's between CDU, Grüne and SPD.

Maybe there will be a poll putting the SPD in clear second place soon?

[CumbrianLefty]

A poll is being mentioned on social media that has Scholz on 35%.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, that latest poll has to make the CDU a bit queasy?

[CumbrianLefty]

What's totally crazy is the idea of the SPD winning the Chancellorship with just 21% of the vote.

Thanks Laschet.

Wouldn't even 31% be unprecedentedly low?

[CumbrianLefty]

It appears we finally have CROSSOVER!

(where's that "Its Happening" gif)

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, you're a "liberal hack" alright

Go on then, *how* many RAF stans are actually in Die Linke? Let's have a number.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting that Scholz is proving a bit Teflon-y. Might not have been the case only a year or two ago.