🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SPD back at 20% and ahead of the Greens for the first time in a long, long time 👀👀👀



There have been one-off polls in 2019 and 2020 that showed the SPD ahead of the Greens by a point, but it was always maybe once or twice a year. Last time the SPD was consistently ahead of the Greens was around August-September 2018.

Let's hope this keeps up!


And just LOOK at that drop in undecided while Scholz's numbers explode

[DL]

Now that that SPD is clearly overtaking the Greens and Scholz has such skyrocket Ing popularity it seems inevitable to me that you’re going to start seeing a big shift of Green votes to the SPD. A lot of people who have been telling pollsters they would vote Green in recent years are left of centre former SPD voters any ways. A month from now I’ll bet the Greens will be polling at 13-14%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now that that SPD is clearly overtaking the Greens and Scholz has such skyrocket Ing popularity it seems inevitable to me that you’re going to start seeing a big shift of Green votes to the SPD. A lot of people who have been telling pollsters they would vote Green in recent years are left of centre former SPD voters any ways. A month from now I’ll bet the Greens will be polling at 13-14%

Actually, if you take a good look at the polls of recent days and weeks you see that the Greens always remain relatively stable at 18-22%, while the CDU dropped and the SPD gained, indicating a recent shift of voters from CDU to SPD (probably the same kind of more or less "undecided" voters who orignally went from the CDU to the Greens in late April, giving the Greens their temporary boost to roughly (?) 26% before returning to the CDU following the Baerbock scandals/before the Laschet gaffes).

In other words, the "soft Merkel support" block (which also happens to be moderately pro-social justice/pro-climate protection/pro-refugees, given Merkel's stances) is up for grabs, and Greens and SPD are fighting over it while the CDU is trying to maintain control.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Now that that SPD is clearly overtaking the Greens and Scholz has such skyrocket Ing popularity it seems inevitable to me that you’re going to start seeing a big shift of Green votes to the SPD. A lot of people who have been telling pollsters they would vote Green in recent years are left of centre former SPD voters any ways. A month from now I’ll bet the Greens will be polling at 13-14%

Actually, if you take a good look at the polls of recent days and weeks you see that the Greens always remain relatively stable at 18-22%, while the CDU dropped and the SPD gained, indicating a recent shift of voters from CDU to SPD (probably the same kind of more or less "undecided" voters who orignally went from the CDU to the Greens in late April, giving the Greens their temporary boost to roughly (?) 26% before returning to the CDU following the Baerbock scandals/before the Laschet gaffes).

In other words, the "soft Merkel support" block (which also happens to be moderately pro-social justice/pro-climate protection/pro-refugees, given Merkel's stances) is up for grabs, and Greens and SPD are fighting over it while the CDU is trying to maintain control.

Could we also view this as ex-SPD voters (especially retirees) coming home now that Merkel isn't there anymore and Scholz is now the safety candidate for them?

[Mike88]

Just 2 % points now separating CDU/CSU from SPD:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1427854413876576257

[Jackson Lee]

Germans should really vote for Olarf Scholz and DPD.

Laschtet is an embarrassment and would hurt Germany on the international stage.

[DL]

According to this poll the SPD has now pulled dead even with the CDU. I think Scholz will be the next chancellor

https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1428006070950244356?s=21

[Jackson Lee]

According to this poll the SPD has now pulled dead even with the CDU. I think Scholz will be the next chancellor

https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1428006070950244356?s=21

I think so too: SPD+Greens+FDP.

A government of winners, with Scholz leading it.

Laschet has made himself a fool during the floods and at the Tesla plant in East GER standing next to Elon Musk.

[Astatine]

According to this poll the SPD has now pulled dead even with the CDU. I think Scholz will be the next chancellor

https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1428006070950244356?s=21

Wahlkreisprognose "polls" should be taken with caution. They tend to publish quite extreme numbers and are completely intransparent in their methodology. Wahlrecht.de (poll database of all reputable polls) does not include them.

[DL]

If the SPD ends up being the largest party, what coalition could Scholz form? Would the CDU be willing to be the junior partner in a grand coalition? Would the FDP be willing to be a third wheel in a Traffic light coalition? Would a red-red-green all left coalition be a possibility if the math added up?

[Jackson Lee]

If the SPD ends up being the largest party, what coalition could Scholz form? Would the CDU be willing to be the junior partner in a grand coalition? Would the FDP be willing to be a third wheel in a Traffic light coalition? Would a red-red-green all left coalition be a possibility if the math added up?

Scholz is too moderate within the SPD to form a coalition with the Linke.

He prefers SPD-Union I suppose, or even more so SPD-Greens-FDP.

If the Union loses the election by a lot, they will go into opposition.

Expect the SPD to gain more in the next weeks, when German voters return from the beaches.

[Jackson Lee]

According to this poll the SPD has now pulled dead even with the CDU. I think Scholz will be the next chancellor

https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1428006070950244356?s=21

Wahlkreisprognose "polls" should be taken with caution. They tend to publish quite extreme numbers and are completely intransparent in their methodology. Wahlrecht.de (poll database of all reputable polls) does not include them.

Thanks.

This latest poll from an eastern state shows a monumental shift to the SPD compared to 2017:

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#mv

[President Johnson]

It's actually happening. Or at least there's a real chance. I remember how the SPD and Scholz got laughed off last year when they nominated him. It seemed like a joke a party polling at 15% or below was nominating a "chancellor candidate".

Both the Union and Greens nominated poor candidates; in Baerbock's case it's also the press giving her bad headlines for smaller errors. I think that's a bit unfair to her, though her lack of experience is probably an equal or larger factor here. Scholz has a lot of experience and comes off as a pragmatic and thoughtful leader, who can get things done. At the same time, I never have seen my party this united and disciplined. We just need to keep it going and maybe Laschet and his party give us more ammunition in the weeks to come. I definitely like this timeline so far.

[randomusername]

It's actually happening. Or at least there's a real chance. I remember how the SPD and Scholz got laughed off last year when they nominated him. It seemed like a joke a party polling at 15% or below was nominating a "chancellor candidate".

Both the Union and Greens nominated poor candidates; in Baerbock's case it's also the press giving her bad headlines for smaller errors. I think that's a bit unfair to her, though her lack of experience is probably an equal or larger factor here. Scholz has a lot of experience and comes off as a pragmatic and thoughtful leader, who can get things done. At the same time, I never have seen my party this united and disciplined. We just need to keep it going and maybe Laschet and his party give us more ammunition in the weeks to come. I definitely like this timeline so far.

Are German voters thinking of him as more of a natural successor to Merkel than Laschet?

[President Johnson]

If the SPD ends up being the largest party, what coalition could Scholz form? Would the CDU be willing to be the junior partner in a grand coalition? Would the FDP be willing to be a third wheel in a Traffic light coalition? Would a red-red-green all left coalition be a possibility if the math added up?

Scholz is too moderate within the SPD to form a coalition with the Linke.

He prefers SPD-Union I suppose, or even more so SPD-Greens-FDP.

If the Union loses the election by a lot, they will go into opposition.

Expect the SPD to gain more in the next weeks, when German voters return from the beaches.

Scholz doesn't prefer another coalition with the Union and (rightfully) said they need time in opposition. His preferred coalition is traffic light, although he doesn't say so directly in public. If the SPD actually overtakes the Union, a Grand coalition under him would only be a last reserve with a third partner, though I don't see the FDP not entering a government. Markus Söder also said the Union shouldn't enter any coalition led by SPD or Greens and that he considers a second or third place as de facto ousting from any positions of power.

It's actually happening. Or at least there's a real chance. I remember how the SPD and Scholz got laughed off last year when they nominated him. It seemed like a joke a party polling at 15% or below was nominating a "chancellor candidate".

Both the Union and Greens nominated poor candidates; in Baerbock's case it's also the press giving her bad headlines for smaller errors. I think that's a bit unfair to her, though her lack of experience is probably an equal or larger factor here. Scholz has a lot of experience and comes off as a pragmatic and thoughtful leader, who can get things done. At the same time, I never have seen my party this united and disciplined. We just need to keep it going and maybe Laschet and his party give us more ammunition in the weeks to come. I definitely like this timeline so far.

Are German voters thinking of him as more of a natural successor to Merkel than Laschet?

It depends, some certainly do. There's a large voting bloc that went for the CDU previously because of Merkel. Now that she's no longer on the ballot, they're up for grabs. Certainly there are also disaffected CDU voters who don't like Laschet but want to prevent Baerbock from becoming chancellor.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

It's actually happening. Or at least there's a real chance. I remember how the SPD and Scholz got laughed off last year when they nominated him. It seemed like a joke a party polling at 15% or below was nominating a "chancellor candidate".

Both the Union and Greens nominated poor candidates; in Baerbock's case it's also the press giving her bad headlines for smaller errors. I think that's a bit unfair to her, though her lack of experience is probably an equal or larger factor here. Scholz has a lot of experience and comes off as a pragmatic and thoughtful leader, who can get things done. At the same time, I never have seen my party this united and disciplined. We just need to keep it going and maybe Laschet and his party give us more ammunition in the weeks to come. I definitely like this timeline so far.

Are German voters thinking of him as more of a natural successor to Merkel than Laschet?

It's not that voters don't know what the parties stand for (or want to stand for), voters have a good idea of that. So I don't know whether they specifically seek resemblance to Merkel. It's just that according to polling, Scholz has pretty much always stood out as the most popular minister in Merkel's government. It might very well have something to do with Merkel and Scholz being very similiar in style.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Germans were less afraid of minorities a red-green coalition that juggles deals alternatively with Die Linke, Union and the FDP would be a pretty ideal government.

[Hnv1]

my isidewith:
FDP 84%
SPD 80%
CDU 70%
Linke 68%
Green 67%
AfD 55%

I expected green and afd to be lower but overall pretty accurate

[Mike88]

Kantar poll: (compared with the last poll)

22% CDU/CSU (nc)
21% SPD (+2)
19% Grüne (-2)
12% FDP (nc)
11% AfD (nc)
  7% Linke (nc)
  8% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 August 2021. Polled 1,920 votes.

[President Johnson]

Kantar poll: (compared with the last poll)

22% CDU/CSU (nc)
21% SPD (+2)
19% Grüne (-2)
12% FDP (nc)
11% AfD (nc)
  7% Linke (nc)
  8% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 August 2021. Polled 1,920 votes.

Oh my lord, I love this timeline. There's actually a chance - though I really doubt it comes to that - CDU/CSU end up third. Also interesting is that the SPD'd rise is just barely at the expense of the Greens, who maintain their position in the upper teens. However, I still expect them to end up between 14% and 17% as polls often overestimated their support. A third place finish by the Union would be glorious though.

I really have a hard time seeing Laschet mainting party leader even if the Union ends up first with less than 24%. According to CSU inner circles, Söder already described the situation as very precarious during a CSU board meeting today. That he'll replace Laschet as candidate is absolutely not going to happen though. I wouldn't be shocked if he secretly wants Laschet to lose and then run as chancellor candidate in 2025. Otherwise, he'll probably never get the chance again as Laschet would certainly run for reelection to a second and third term.

[RGM2609]

Is a third term of Laschet actually possible? One would think that after 20 years of CDU fatigue would finally settle in and they would be done for in 2025.

[Polkergeist]

If the FDP would not go into coalition with CDU+Greens 4 years ago, why would they go into coalition with SDP+Greens now?

Maybe if SDP+Greens+Linke get more than 50% of seats combined, the FDP may want to shoehorn the Linke out, but in that event  wouldn't FDP start losing votes to CDU or AfD?

FDP leaving the government formation process in 2017 put party survival ahead of government stability, why would it be different in 2021?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

If the FDP would not go into coalition with CDU+Greens 4 years ago, why would they go into coalition with SDP+Greens now?

Maybe if SDP+Greens+Linke get more than 50% of seats combined, the FDP may want to shoehorn the Linke out, but in that event  wouldn't FDP start losing votes to CDU or AfD?

FDP leaving the government formation process in 2017 put party survival ahead of government stability, why would it be different in 2021?

I suppose the logic is that you can't dodge responsibility forever.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

FDP leaving the government formation process in 2017 put party survival ahead of government stability, why would it be different in 2021?

Because it really wasn't a popular move. Most people found it kind of weird.
The FDP is in a better position now, yes. But these are different times. I get the feeling that most people believe that the FDP has outgrown the 2017-version of itself--that the mishap of 2017 will not occur again because the FDP has learned. Lindner is very keen on conveying this exact message. The high polling numbers for the FDP are kind of a new phenomenon. In fact, the party was not well until early 2021.
Also, the general sentiment of the public is different, and supporting a government that would get rid of the Union could be a very popular move.

[Jackson Lee]

SPD up even more since last poll:





Who should lead next government?



https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2723.html

51% SPD + Greens + FDP
41% Union + AfD + Left

Go Olaf!