🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)
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  🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)
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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 214125 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: November 04, 2018, 07:58:51 AM »
« edited: January 09, 2024, 03:39:08 PM by Hash »

The old thread is getting too big and needs to be locked and retired.

I'll start:

CSU-FW have agreed to form a coalition in Bavaria after the state election. Their party committees will agree the coalition contract today, which will be presented tomorrow.

https://www.dw.com/en/merkels-bavarian-csu-allies-reach-coalition-with-free-voters/a-46139039
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2018, 10:43:48 AM »

First poll (Emnid) for the coming CDU leadership election:

"Who do you want as new CDU-leader (CDU-voters only) ?"

44% Fritz Merz
39% Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer
  9% Jens Spahn

Among all German voters, it's 38-27-13.

"Do you regret the resignation of Angela Merkel as CDU-leader (CDU-voters only) ?"

54% Yes, regret it
46% No, don't regret it

Among all German voters, only 28% regret it while 68% do not regret it.

Link
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2018, 11:06:22 AM »

Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2018, 02:46:14 PM »

I think, you are totally wrong

Friedrich Merz is economically right wing, socially conservative, globalist/transatlanticist/pro-EU/free trade with strong ties to the financial sector

AKK is centrist, politically catholic, and probably a tad more conservative then Merkel, but she's probably the closest you can get to Merkel in style and policies

Jens Spahn is a very ambitious loudmouth, but it's actually not to clear, what he really stands for, he's quite socially conservative - whatever that means in Germany in 2018, but gay. As health secretary his bilance seems mixed at the moment, but at least he tries to work on the issues.
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mvd10
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2018, 03:08:00 PM »

Kramp-Karrenbauer is rather conservative on issues like SSM and euthanasia so maybe your confusion comes from that, but I don't think many people care about those issues anymore and on the most important issues (immigration and probably still taxes/budget) she's not right-wing at all.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2018, 04:09:51 PM »

I think, you are totally wrong

Friedrich Merz is economically right wing, socially conservative, globalist/transatlanticist/pro-EU/free trade with strong ties to the financial sector

AKK is centrist, politically catholic, and probably a tad more conservative then Merkel, but she's probably the closest you can get to Merkel in style and policies

Jens Spahn is a very ambitious loudmouth, but it's actually not to clear, what he really stands for, he's quite socially conservative - whatever that means in Germany in 2018, but gay. As health secretary his bilance seems mixed at the moment, but at least he tries to work on the issues.

Where do they stand on immigration?
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Beezer
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2018, 04:13:45 PM »

Kramp-Karrenbauer: More or less like Merkel
Spahn: 2015 was a mistake and more needs to be done to avoid a repeat
Merz: Well, he calls for a more distinctive CDU profile which I guess means moving to the right on immigration, "Multikulti" etc.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2018, 04:28:19 PM »

Merz was the creator of the "deutsche Leitkultur" debate/slogan/whatever (maybe "core culture" would be the most substantial translation of the given proposals in the English wikipedia article) and on the othter hand, he is very friendly to big business. So we will probably get some more discourses a la "the immigrants should integrate better". Not so sure, weither Merz buys the "Islam isn't a part of Germany" nonsense. I guess, he would try to further reduce the numbers of asylum seekers, but on the other hand wouldn't mind "useful" immigration of well educated economically successful people and cheap labor, that the companies like.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2018, 04:34:50 PM »

Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

I'd rather think a chancellor Özdemir would be more realistic.
Since the Greens always elect two top candidates (or should I say "chancellor candidate" Henceforth?), a Green win could eventuate in some cockfights as to who will become chancellor. That will become funny. Where's my popcorn? 😈🍿
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2018, 04:49:37 PM »

Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

I'd rather think a chancellor Özdemir would be more realistic.
Since the Greens always elect two top candidates (or should I say "chancellor candidate" Henceforth?), a Green win could eventuate in some cockfights as to who will become chancellor. That will become funny. Where's my popcorn? 😈🍿

Why not Kretschmann? He is the only Green politician with leadership experience, and probably lends legitimacy to the Federal Greens if he hops ship whenever the next election occurs. Though convincing him to hop on over probably requires positive polling.
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2018, 04:58:18 PM »

Kramp-Karrenbauer is rather conservative on issues like SSM and euthanasia so maybe your confusion comes from that, but I don't think many people care about those issues anymore and on the most important issues (immigration and probably still taxes/budget) she's not right-wing at all.

There is another topic (at least since last fall) that meets with disapproval among Germans:
It is forbidden for doctors to "advertise" (yes, that's the literal translation) abortions.
A female Gießen-based gynecologist named Kristina Hänel has been adjudged to a penalty in the amount of 6,000 € at first and second instancebecause she mentioned on her website that she also performs abortions at her office.
The appellate judge just some weeks ago approved the first-instance verdict, but he didn't approve of it; he insinuated that he hopes that the next instance, or eventually the Supreme Court is going to repeal the court decision.
AKK and Spahn nevertheless still support the ban on "advertising" abortions. 🤬
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2018, 05:05:36 PM »

Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

I'd rather think a chancellor Özdemir would be more realistic.
Since the Greens always elect two top candidates (or should I say "chancellor candidate" Henceforth?), a Green win could eventuate in some cockfights as to who will become chancellor. That will become funny. Where's my popcorn? 😈🍿

Why not Kretschmann? He is the only Green politician with leadership experience, and probably lends legitimacy to the Federal Greens if he hops ship whenever the next election occurs. Though convincing him to hop on over probably requires positive polling.

One of the few things I love about the Greens is that they hold primaries for both party leaderships and top/chancellor candidacies. Kretschmann wouldn't win a federal primary since he is waaaaaay too conservative and susceptible to automotive lobbyists. The Baden-Württemberg Greens have nothing in common with the Greens from Berlin, Hamburg, Bremen or Frankfurt.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2018, 05:27:28 PM »

Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

I'd rather think a chancellor Özdemir would be more realistic.
Since the Greens always elect two top candidates (or should I say "chancellor candidate" Henceforth?), a Green win could eventuate in some cockfights as to who will become chancellor. That will become funny. Where's my popcorn? 😈🍿

Why not Kretschmann? He is the only Green politician with leadership experience, and probably lends legitimacy to the Federal Greens if he hops ship whenever the next election occurs. Though convincing him to hop on over probably requires positive polling.

One of the few things I love about the Greens is that they hold primaries for both party leaderships and top/chancellor candidacies. Kretschmann wouldn't win a federal primary since he is waaaaaay too conservative and susceptible to automotive lobbyists. The Baden-Württemberg Greens have nothing in common with the Greens from Berlin, Hamburg, Bremen or Frankfurt.

Ahh ok, I didn't realize the Greens had primaries. Yeah, armed with this knowledge I couldn't see Kretschmann winning a leadership election unless it was uncontested.
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PSOL
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2018, 08:48:45 AM »

President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Hans-Georg Massen throws a hissyfit at the “naive and leftist” coalition policies,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/outgoing-german-spy-chief-attacks-naive-left-reopens-coalition-row-idUSKCN1NA105
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If he runs for CDU chairman, how much support would he gather?
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2018, 11:50:51 AM »

President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Hans-Georg Massen throws a hissyfit at the “naive and leftist” coalition policies,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/outgoing-german-spy-chief-attacks-naive-left-reopens-coalition-row-idUSKCN1NA105
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If he runs for CDU chairman, how much support would he gather?

He wouldn't win, but he has the potential to come in third place.
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2018, 01:16:50 PM »

President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Hans-Georg Massen throws a hissyfit at the “naive and leftist” coalition policies,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/outgoing-german-spy-chief-attacks-naive-left-reopens-coalition-row-idUSKCN1NA105
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If he runs for CDU chairman, how much support would he gather?

He wouldn't win, but he has the potential to come in third place.

It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2018, 01:26:43 PM »

It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...
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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2018, 01:44:32 PM »

It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...

Maybe he will but become some form of Erika Steinbach.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2018, 01:50:31 PM »

It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...

Maybe he will but become some form of Erika Steinbach.

Just an official supporter of the AfD, but not a member?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2018, 02:07:58 PM »

It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...

Maybe he will but become some form of Erika Steinbach.

Just an official supporter of the AfD, but not a member?

Yeah, at least inffocial supporter. However, it's a disgrace he just can retire at this age. He should earn his living rather than taking taxpayer money. Someone who gets fired for misbeavior shouldn't be entitled for pensions. But I'm glad he's gone.
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2018, 02:09:04 PM »

It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...

Maybe he will but become some form of Erika Steinbach.

Just an official supporter of the AfD, but not a member?

The AfD's U-Boat inside the CDU. The Black Sarrazin.
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PSOL
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2018, 02:39:26 PM »

So are sleeper agents a common thing in German parties, or is polarization slow enough to cause the bleeding to have some leftovers?
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2018, 03:16:44 PM »

So are sleeper agents a common thing in German parties, or is polarization slow enough to cause the bleeding to have some leftovers?

Yes, it happens quite often. The most famous sleeper agent is probably former SPD Wolfgang Clement (NRW Governor from 1998 till 2002, Economy and Labor Minister from 2002 till 2005), who even called upon the Hessians in 2008 to not vote SPD in the Hesse state election. The party leaders tried to get rid off him, but the SPD arbitral tribunal declined that request. Clement later left the SPD and joined the FDP, which he ought to have done like 10 years earlier.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2018, 07:28:45 AM »

Why have the Greens been surging recently?
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2018, 07:37:27 AM »

Why have the Greens been surging recently?

The voters have been suffering from suffering from fatigue of the "grand" coalition, the very hot and arid summer, plus the dieselgate scandal, where the government rallies behind Volkswagen, which has been pulling the consumers' legs.
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